{
  "@context": "https://orbyd.app/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "AAON",
  "name": "AAON, Inc.",
  "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AAON/",
  "json_url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/AAON.json",
  "status": "DORMANT",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "graded_conviction": null,
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a2",
    "n": 2
  },
  "current_thesis": "BASX data-center cooling re-rating is intact but the setup for a fresh buyer today is poor: four days from a binary Q2 print (2026-07-30, inside blackout), KeyBanc just initiated at neutral (Sector Weight, 2026-07-23), ~55x forward with insiders having sold the May strength. The +50% repricing already fired on the 2026-05-07 Q1 print; standing aside into the number beats chasing it.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A weekly close below $115 forfeits the May 2026 post-earnings gap base and breaks the data-center re-rating; secondary break is the 2026-07-30 Q2 print showing BASX backlog rolling over sequentially or gross margin below the 27-28% guide.",
  "catalyst_date": null,
  "outcome": "OPEN",
  "outcome_date": null,
  "invalidation_fired": null,
  "themes": [
    "industrial-power-grid",
    "ai-datacenter-infrastructure"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "notes": [
    "Repricing catalyst (Q1 print) already fired 2026-05-07 with a ~50% gap; post-gap digestion name, best entry is a 20-EMA/gap-base reclaim, not a chase.",
    "Insider cluster-selling May 2026 (CEO Tobolski ~8k sh @ ~$135 on 2026-05-13, a director 19,000 sh, an EVP 3,000 sh); track further Form 4s as a distribution tell.",
    "At the 2026-06-05 close ~$132.62 the stock traded on top of the ~$143.50 consensus PT; trailing P/E ~93, forward ~55 — thin cushion if backlog decelerates.",
    "Highest correlation is to hyperscaler capex guidance (late-July MSFT/META/GOOGL/AMZN calls) and direct cooling comps VRT/MOD; beta 1.40 amplifies AI-infra risk-on/off.",
    "Repricing catalyst (Q1 print) already fired 2026-05-07 with a ~50% gap; this is a post-gap digestion name now — best entry is a 20-EMA/gap-base reclaim after the print, not a chase into the blackout.",
    "Insider cluster-selling May 2026 (CEO Tobolski ~8k sh @ ~$135 on 2026-05-13, a director 19,000 sh, an EVP 3,000 sh). Track further Form 4s as a distribution signal.",
    "KeyBanc initiated Sector Weight (neutral) on 2026-07-23 — fresh neutral coverage right into the print, not an endorsement of the multiple.",
    "At the early-June ~$132 close: trailing P/E ~93, forward ~55, essentially at the ~$143.50 consensus target; the multiple offers little cushion if backlog growth decelerates."
  ],
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\nAAON is the custom-engineered cooling supplier levered to the AI data-center buildout, and its BASX subsidiary carries the entire re-rating. The story detonated in one session on the 2026-05-07 Q1 print — revenue +54.3% YoY, the full-year growth outlook doubled from 18-20% to 40-45%, backlog up 107% to $2.13B — and the broader theme of industrial power and thermal management for high-density compute is still accelerating. The problem for a buyer on 2026-07-26 is timing, not story. The repricing already happened: the stock gapped from roughly $90 to $150, insiders sold into it, and the tape has spent seven weeks digesting near the highs. The next event that can move it is the Q2 print, estimated 2026-07-30 — four days out, inside the blackout that opened around 2026-07-25. On 2026-07-23 KeyBanc initiated coverage at Sector Weight, a neutral call rather than a buy, right as the window to establish anything ahead of the binary closes. A ~55x forward multiple has to hold on narrative alone until the number lands. The clean move is to let the print clear before committing capital.\n\n## Bull Case\n- Q1 2026 (2026-05-07): net sales $496.9M, +54.3% YoY vs ~$381M consensus; adjusted EPS $0.48 vs $0.29 expected — a two-line beat wide enough to force estimates higher.\n- FY2026 sales guide lifted from $1.702-1.730B to $2.019-2.091B on the same print; growth framing moved from 18-20% to 40-45% in one quarter.\n- Backlog $2.13B as of 2026-05-07: +107.4% YoY, +16.5% sequential — forward revenue largely under contract rather than pipeline projection.\n- BASX data-center sales +72.4% YoY and +26% sequential; liquid cooling +186.8% on a trailing-twelve-month basis. Management guided BASX toward ~$1B of FY2026 revenue, putting roughly half the company directly on AI data-center capex.\n\n- $100M buyback authorized alongside the print (2026-05-07).\n- Sell-side chased the print: Baird to $150 from $125 and Oppenheimer to $145 from $118, both 2026-05-08; consensus rose ~17% to ~$144 by 2026-05-12.\n- The industrial-power-AI cluster remains firm — the 2026-07-20 chip rebound that lifted the Nasdaq-100 and Micron (+5%) confirms the hyperscaler-capex tape AAON rides.\n\n## Bear Case\n- The re-rating is already in the tape. The +50% move fired on the 2026-05-07 gap and topped at $150.46; the breakout-retest entry has passed.\n- KeyBanc initiated at Sector Weight (neutral) on 2026-07-23 — a fresh analyst starting AAON at neutral four trading days before earnings, which reads as fair-value, not conviction.\n- Valuation gives little room: trailing P/E ~93, forward ~55 as of 2026-06-05. At the 2026-06-05 close of $132.62 the stock sat essentially on the ~$143.50 consensus target, so analyst math no longer pulls without another estimate revision higher.\n- Insider distribution into strength: CEO Tobolski sold ~8,000 shares near $135 (2026-05-13), a director 19,000, an EVP 3,000 — clustered in May around $135.\n- 2026-06-05 closed -7.61% on ~1.25M shares, the first heavy distribution day off the high; action since has been sideways digestion without an accumulation signature.\n- The Q2 print (2026-07-30, est.) is binary and the only near-term catalyst. A ~55x forward multiple magnifies the downside of any sequential backlog softening or margin slip on a 1.40-beta name.\n- A 40-45% growth year builds a punishing 2027 comparison; the market will start pricing the deceleration well before it arrives.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n- Last hard reference: $132.62 close on 2026-06-05 (-7.61%), after-hours $132.00, session range $131.46-$141.73 on ~1.25M shares — now aging, re-validate against live tape before acting.\n- 52-week range $62.00 – $150.46; market cap ~$10.86B; beta 1.40. The early-June close sat ~12% under the high and ~114% above the low.\n- Structure is a post-gap digestion box: the May gap base sits ~$110-115, the rising 20-EMA ~$125, and the all-time high $150.46 caps it. Seven weeks of range near the top with a distribution day and no reclaim of the highs.\n- Preferred entry is a volume reclaim of the gap base / 20-EMA after the print confirms backlog, rather than a chase into an earnings blackout with a neutral initiation on the tape.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar (next 30 days)\n\n- ~2026-07-31 to ~2026-08-15 — post-print revision window: if BASX backlog re-accelerates, expect estimate and target moves higher; if it softens, the ~55x multiple compresses fast.\n- No other AAON-specific dated catalyst inside the next 30 days; the multiple carries on narrative until the print.\n\n## Elapsed catalysts\n\n- ~2026-07-30 (est.) — Q2 2026 earnings, the binary event. The market will read BASX data-center bookings and sequential backlog first, gross margin (27-28% guide) second. Blackout since ~2026-07-25. *(passed 10d ago)*\n- 2026-07-23 (elapsed, context) — KeyBanc initiated coverage at Sector Weight; a neutral starting stance into the print. *(passed 17d ago)*\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n- Bear confirmation: a weekly close below $115 forfeits the May 2026 gap base and breaks the re-rating leg; a further insider Form 4 selling cluster on top of that deepens the distribution read.\n- Fundamental break: the 2026-07-30 Q2 print showing BASX backlog rolling over sequentially, or gross margin printing below the 27-28% guide — either turns the whole story from acceleration to digestion.\n- Bull re-trigger: a post-print gap-base / 20-EMA reclaim on expanding volume, with backlog re-accelerating and sell-side revising estimates higher — that resets a clean momentum entry the current blackout denies.\n- Theme flip: industrial-power-AI cooling coverage moving from trade-desk to mainstream CNBC-headline saturation with no fresh BASX order news would mark the narrative as late.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n- AAON trades inside the industrial-power-AI / data-center-capex cluster; its beta to power and cooling peers (Vertiv, Eaton, GE Vernova, Powell) and to the hyperscaler capex tape is high, so cluster breakouts and breakdowns tend to carry it.\n- BASX ties revenue directly to hyperscaler capex guidance (MSFT, META, GOOGL, AMZN); a capex-cut or data-center-pause headline from any of them would hit the whole cooling complex, AAON included.\n- Beta 1.40 means it amplifies Nasdaq-100 and semiconductor swings — the 2026-07-20 chip rebound that lifted Micron +5% is the kind of coincident move that pulls the name, up or down.\n- The idiosyncratic driver is BASX data-center backlog specifically; legacy rooftop HVAC is the low-growth anchor that neither makes nor breaks the thesis.",
  "first_seen": "2026-05-08",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-07-26T11:12:31+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-07-26",
  "last_update_source": "watchlist_research",
  "license": "Content © orbyd. Cite the canonical URL."
}