{
  "@context": "https://orbyd.app/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "ADSK",
  "name": "Autodesk, Inc.",
  "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ADSK/",
  "json_url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/ADSK.json",
  "status": "DORMANT",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "graded_conviction": null,
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a4",
    "n": 4
  },
  "current_thesis": "De-rated design-software compounder: Q1 FY27 revenue +18% to $1.934B and current RPO +18%, against a stock 23.8% under its $326.79 high. The $3.6B MaintainX close (2026-08-03) extends the franchise from CAD seats into asset operations; the 2026-08-27 Q2 print is the first guide that has to carry it, with RSI(14) at 69.1 going in.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A weekly close below $238 unwinds the July–August recovery leg off the 2026-08-07 close of $249.08; secondary condition: the 2026-08-27 Q2 FY27 print cutting FY27 revenue guidance below the $8.155B low end or non-GAAP EPS below $12.40.",
  "catalyst_date": "2026-08-27",
  "outcome": "OPEN",
  "outcome_date": null,
  "invalidation_fired": null,
  "themes": [
    "ai-enterprise-software",
    "housing-homebuilders-proptech"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "notes": [
    "Fiscal year ends January 31 — 'FY27' is the year ending 2027-01-31, so quarter labels run ahead of the calendar.",
    "Autodesk reports revenue growth both as-reported and in constant currency; Q1 FY27 was +18% vs +16%, so FX moves the headline number.",
    "The FY27 guidance ranges were issued 2026-05-28, the same day the MaintainX agreement was announced and before it closed on 2026-08-03.",
    "Balance sheet carries a $2B unsecured commercial paper program established 2026-07-13 alongside the $3.6B all-cash acquisition outlay."
  ],
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\n\nThe leg on offer is a de-rating reversal in application software. Autodesk trades at $249.08 (2026-08-07 close), 23.8% below its 52-week high of $326.79, while the reported fundamentals went the other way: Q1 FY27 (2026-05-28) revenue of $1.934B, +18% YoY as reported and +16% in constant currency, non-GAAP operating margin 39%, and current remaining performance obligations of $5.383B, +18% YoY. The gap between an accelerating book and a compressed price is the \"AI eats seat-based software\" discount that has been applied across the group — the 2026-07-16 Benzinga piece on software moats grouped Autodesk with Adobe and Salesforce as names investors have watched skip through the infield for a year.\n\nOn top of that sits a re-positioning: the $3.6B all-cash MaintainX acquisition, announced 2026-05-28 and completed 2026-08-03, the largest in company history. It moves Autodesk past design and build into maintenance and asset operations, and it is funded partly through the $2B unsecured commercial paper program established 2026-07-13. The 2026-08-27 Q2 FY27 print is the first guide that has to carry the deal's revenue, margin and interest arithmetic.\n\n## Bull Case\n\n- **Growth has not decelerated into the AI-disruption debate.** Q1 FY27 (2026-05-28): revenue $1.934B, +18% YoY; billings $1.688B, +18%; Design $1.612B, +18%; Make $224M, +25%. AECO family +20%, AutoCAD +15%, Manufacturing +19%.\n- **The forward book matches the reported line.** Current RPO $5.383B, +18% YoY as of 2026-05-28. Total RPO $7.808B, +9%. Near-term contracted revenue is growing at the same rate as revenue, which is not what a franchise losing seats to generative tooling looks like on a one-quarter view.\n- **Margin and cash conversion stepped up.** Q1 FY27 GAAP operating margin 28% (+14pp YoY), non-GAAP 39% (+2pp), non-GAAP EPS $2.99, free cash flow $876M (+58% YoY, seasonally strongest quarter). $448M of stock repurchased in the quarter.\n- **Guidance was raised at the same print.** FY27 revenue $8.155–8.215B, billings $8.505–8.580B, non-GAAP EPS $12.40–12.65, free cash flow $2.725–2.800B, non-GAAP operating margin ~39%.\n- **Management frames AI as a distribution layer, not a substitute.** CEO Andrew Anagnost, 2026-05-28: \"Autodesk's assistants and MCP infrastructure provide the harness layer that makes frontier models more controllable, context-aware, and useful.\" MaintainX (closed 2026-08-03) extends that harness into work-order and asset data that Autodesk did not previously own.\n\n## Bear Case\n\n- **The newest published target sits below spot.** Guggenheim initiated coverage 2026-07-23 with a Buy rating and a $245 price target, against a 2026-08-07 close of $249.08. A constructive rating attached to a number under the market price is a thin base for fresh upside.\n- **The discount has not closed on good numbers.** Two consecutive raised guides have left the stock 23.8% under the $326.79 high and roughly flat over three months (3-month return +1.9%). Whatever is repricing the multiple is not responding to reported growth.\n- **The FY27 ranges predate the deal closing.** The $8.155–8.215B revenue and $12.40–12.65 non-GAAP EPS framework was issued 2026-05-28, the same day the MaintainX agreement was announced and more than two months before it completed on 2026-08-03. Purchase accounting, deferred-revenue haircuts and interest on commercial paper borrowings all land in the 2026-08-27 update.\n- **FX is doing some of the work.** Q1 FY27 revenue grew 18% as reported and 16% in constant currency. A firmer dollar narrows the reported line without any change in demand.\n- **Balance-sheet flexibility narrowed.** A $3.6B all-cash outlay plus a $2B commercial paper facility established 2026-07-13 puts repurchase capacity — $448M in Q1 — into competition with deleveraging.\n- a software name carrying an overbought oscillator into a print has limited cushion if beta turns.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n\n- Last completed daily close $249.08 (2026-08-07). 52-week high $326.79; distance from high −23.8%. RSI(14) 69.1.\n- Three-month return +1.9%. The July–August advance has restored roughly where the stock traded in early May; it is a recovery inside a range, not a breakout. The $326.79 high is the level that would evidence the de-rating actually reversing, and it is far away.\n- Retail-facing coverage clustered at the top of the recent move: Benzinga ran \"Stock of the Day: Where Will the Autodesk Rally End?\" on 2026-07-28, explicitly flagging overbought conditions and an approaching resistance level — five days after the Guggenheim initiation and six days before the MaintainX close.\n- Positioning observables, stated as observables: RSI(14) at 69.1 into an earnings date 19 trading-session-days out; the most recent sell-side initiation carrying a target beneath the market price; $2B of commercial paper capacity added 2026-07-13 (debt, not equity issuance — there is no equity raise in the filings available); $448M of buyback in Q1 FY27 as an offsetting bid. No insider transaction filings appear in the material reviewed for this note.\n- **Life-cycle: MATURING.** The AI-disruption debate around design and creative software is mainstream and dated (2026-07-16 Benzinga moats piece; the Adobe/Salesforce comparison set). The fundamental leg still works — 2026-05-28 beat and raise — but flow is moderating: a +1.9% three-month return with fresh Buy-side initiation at a target below spot is not expanding participation. It is not ACCELERATING, because the new attention is a single initiation and one retail-column mention; it is not SATURATED, because the stock is nearly a quarter below its high and the sell-side dispersion still runs wide.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar (next 30 days)\n\n- **2026-08-27** — Q2 FY27 results, conference call 2:00pm PT. Company guide: revenue $2.005–2.015B, GAAP EPS $1.84–1.97, non-GAAP EPS $3.10–3.14. Consensus compiled by MarketBeat as of early August 2026: $3.12 EPS on approximately $2.01B revenue — consensus sits inside the guide, so the print itself resolves little; the FY27 re-base is the information.\n- **2026-08-27** — same event: whether the FY27 framework ($8.155–8.215B revenue, $12.40–12.65 non-GAAP EPS, $2.725–2.800B FCF, ~39% non-GAAP operating margin) is raised, held or re-based for MaintainX.\n- **~2026-09-03 (est.)** — Form 10-Q following the print: first disclosure of MaintainX purchase accounting, deferred-revenue treatment and commercial paper outstanding against the $2B cap.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nThe structure that has to hold is the three-month range the stock re-entered on the July–August advance. If the 2026-08-27 print lands and the stock gives that range back, the recovery leg was a bounce inside an intact de-rating and the discount to $326.79 is a judgement about the terminal value of seat-based design software rather than a mispricing. Concretely: **a weekly close below $238** unwinds that advance and marks the read as wrong.\n\nOn fundamentals, the specific datapoints that would flip the read at the 2026-08-27 call: FY27 revenue guidance cut below the $8.155B low end, non-GAAP EPS guidance below $12.40, non-GAAP operating margin guided under ~39%, or current RPO growth decelerating materially from the +18% posted 2026-05-28. On narrative, the theme flipping to SATURATED — a cluster of price-target raises above $350 arriving after a gap-up rather than before it — would say the marginal bid has already been spent.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n\n- **Application-software AI-disruption complex.** Autodesk was grouped with Adobe and Salesforce in the 2026-07-16 Benzinga moats piece; the group re-rates and de-rates together on evidence about whether generative tooling substitutes for seats. Read peer prints as read-throughs to Autodesk's multiple, not to its bookings.\n- **Index beta.** The Nasdaq-100 entered correction on 2026-07-28. High-multiple software carries the index's drawdown regardless of the individual guide.\n- **AEC construction cycle.** The AECO family was the largest growth contributor in Q1 FY27 at +20% YoY. Non-residential construction and data-center build cadence feed that line; rate moves transmit to Autodesk with a lag through project starts.\n- **Dollar.** Q1 FY27: +18% reported versus +16% constant currency. Dollar strength compresses the reported growth rate the market grades even when constant-currency demand is unchanged.\n- **Post-MaintainX.** From 2026-08-03 the revenue mix includes maintenance and field-operations software, which correlates to industrial and facilities operating budgets rather than to design-seat renewals.",
  "first_seen": "2026-07-28",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-08-08T07:04:16+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-08-08",
  "last_update_source": "watchlist_research",
  "license": "Content © orbyd. Cite the canonical URL."
}