{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "AEO",
  "name": "American Eagle Outfitters",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AEO/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AEO.json",
  "status": "DORMANT",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a4",
    "n": 4
  },
  "current_thesis": "American Eagle Outfitters' shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: Aerie grows, but the namesake brand shrinks and tariff refunds inflate profit. The ~2 December 2026 third-quarter report settles it.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close above $24.14, which would put the shares well above the recent range and show them leading the S&P 500 despite the analyst targets. Third-quarter operating income above the $115 million top of the guide would also show the shares leading.",
  "catalyst_date": "2026-11-27",
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [
    "consumer-discretionary-rotation"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "caveats": [],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "AEO Inc. Reports Second Quarter Fiscal 2026 Results",
      "url": "https://secure.businesswire.com/news/home/20260909455623/en/AEO-Inc.-Reports-Second-Quarter-Fiscal-2026-Results",
      "date": "2026-09-09"
    },
    {
      "title": "American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. (AEO)",
      "url": "https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/aeo",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "AEO - American Eagle Outfitters Inc Stock Price and Quote",
      "url": "https://finviz.com/stock?t=AEO",
      "date": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Second-quarter revenue was a record $1.38 billion, up 8% from a year earlier, with total comparable sales up 6%.",
      "source": "AEO Inc. second-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings release",
      "as_of": "2026-09-09"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Aerie comparable sales rose 19% and Aerie/OFFLINE revenue rose 25% to $536 million; American Eagle brand comparable sales fell 1%.",
      "source": "AEO Inc. second-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings release",
      "as_of": "2026-09-09"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Operating income was $211 million versus $103 million a year earlier, including a $161 million net benefit from IEEPA tariff refunds.",
      "source": "AEO Inc. second-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings release",
      "as_of": "2026-09-09"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Gross margin was 48.7%, up 980 basis points, including 1,300 basis points from tariff refunds.",
      "source": "AEO Inc. second-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings release",
      "as_of": "2026-09-09"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Inventory at cost rose 14% and units rose 9% from a year earlier at quarter end.",
      "source": "AEO Inc. second-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings release",
      "as_of": "2026-08-01"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Fiscal 2026 operating income guidance is $540–550 million; third-quarter guidance is $110–115 million with comparable sales up mid-to-high single digits.",
      "source": "AEO Inc. second-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings release",
      "as_of": "2026-09-09"
    },
    {
      "claim": "The average analyst price target was $18.55 from 14 analysts, with an average rating of Hold.",
      "source": "StockAnalysis.com AEO overview",
      "as_of": "2026-10-27"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Directors Noel Spiegel and Cary McMillan each sold 3,617 shares in the open market, at $17.68 on 2026-10-02 and $18.20 on 2026-10-06.",
      "source": "SEC Form 4 filings",
      "as_of": "2026-10-07"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [],
  "frame": null,
  "filed_numbers": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-13",
    "sector": "Consumer Cyclical",
    "financials": {
      "status": "ok",
      "reason": null,
      "close_date": "2026-11-13",
      "latest_quarter": "2026-08-01",
      "figures": {
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          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
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              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 1380.4,
              "yoy_pct": 7.5
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-05-02",
              "filed": "2026-06-03",
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              "value_musd": 1195.3,
              "yoy_pct": 9.7
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              "yoy_pct": 12.9
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              "value_musd": 1362.7,
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              "value_musd": 1089.6,
              "yoy_pct": -4.7
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        },
        "gross_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
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              "restated": null,
              "pct": 48.7
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              "pct": 38.2
            },
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              "pct": 35.9
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              "pct": 38.9
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              "filed": "2025-06-05",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 29.6
            }
          ]
        },
        "operating_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
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              "filed": "2026-09-10",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 15.3
            },
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              "pct": 2.4
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              "pct": 5.3
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              "pct": 8.3
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              "pct": 8
            },
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              "filed": "2025-06-05",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -7.8
            }
          ]
        },
        "pretax_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-01",
          "filed": "2026-09-10",
          "value_musd": 178.1
        },
        "net_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-01",
          "filed": "2026-09-10",
          "four_quarters_end": "2026-08-01",
          "value_musd": 134.1,
          "four_quarters_musd": 336.9
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        "operating_cash_flow": {
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          "end": "2026-08-01",
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          "value_musd": 599.4
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        "capital_spending": {
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          "end": "2026-08-01",
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          "value_musd": 255.9
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        "free_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-01",
          "filed": "2026-09-10",
          "first_end": "2025-11-01",
          "value_musd": 343.5
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        "diluted_share_change": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-01",
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          "pct": -0.9
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        "cash": {
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          "value_musd": 148
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        "debt": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-01",
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          "value_musd": 55,
          "composition": "non-current long-term debt"
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        "net_cash": {
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          "value_musd": 93
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        "deferred_revenue": {
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          "status": "not reported"
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        "inventory": {
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        "equity": {
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          "value_musd": 1763.8
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          "value_musd": 3638
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        "ev_sales": {
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          "basis_filed": "2026-09-10",
          "multiple": 0.6
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          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
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          "basis_filed": "2026-09-10",
          "multiple": 7.9
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          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
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          "basis_filed": "2026-09-10",
          "multiple": 10.8
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          "multiple": 2.1
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          "basis_end": "2026-09-10",
          "basis_filed": "2026-09-10",
          "pct": 9.4
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    "short_interest": {
      "status": "ok",
      "settlement": "2026-10-15",
      "published": "2026-10-26",
      "short_pct_of_outstanding": 9.67,
      "days_to_cover": 3.4,
      "change_pct": -3.3
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    "insiders": {
      "status": "ok",
      "as_of": "2026-11-15",
      "windows": [
        {
          "days": 90,
          "status": "ok",
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          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 129759.88,
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  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\n\nAmerican Eagle Outfitters' shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. Aerie growth is real, but the namesake brand is still shrinking, one-time tariff refunds inflate this year's profit, and the shares have rallied past analyst targets. The third-quarter report, expected around 2026-12-02, settles it by showing whether holiday sales and margins hold without refund help.\n\nThe shares closed at $21.67 on 2026-11-12, up from $19.92 on 2026-11-06. Most of the gain came in one session: the close rose to $21.75 on 2026-11-09. Finviz attributed that day's 9.5% intraday gain to a broad market rebound and strength in consumer-discretionary stocks. No company announcement, earnings release or analyst rating change is dated 2026-11-09. The 3-month price change is 34.9%, and the last close sits 23.9% below the 52-week high of $28.46 (intraday, 2026-01-06).\n\nThe business record is still the second-quarter report of 2026-09-09, for the quarter ended 2026-08-01. Revenue rose 8% to a record $1.38 billion and total comparable sales rose 6%. Aerie comparable sales rose 19%, and Aerie/OFFLINE revenue rose 25% to $536 million. American Eagle brand comparable sales fell 1%. Operating income was $211 million against $103 million a year earlier, including a $161 million net benefit from refunds of tariffs collected under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).\n\nThe $21.67 close is above StockAnalysis.com's average analyst price target of $18.55 from 14 analysts (2026-10-27), which rates the stock Hold on average. BMO Capital's target is $20 (Market Perform, 2026-09-29). Barclays' target is $15 (2026-09-11), and Telsey Advisory Group cut its target from $20 to $18 on 2026-09-10, per Benzinga. The market has priced in a clean holiday quarter before any holiday result exists.\n\n## Bull Case\n\n- **Aerie is a growth engine.** Aerie/OFFLINE revenue rose 25% and Aerie comparable sales rose 19% in the quarter ended 2026-08-01 (company release, 2026-09-09).\n- **Management guides growth into the holidays.** On 2026-09-09 the company guided third-quarter comparable sales up mid-to-high single digits and third-quarter operating income of $110–115 million.\n- **Full-year profit guidance is set.** Fiscal 2026 operating income is guided at $540–550 million, a range that includes the net tariff refund (2026-09-09 release).\n- **The shares are trending up.** The close of $21.67 on 2026-11-12 is above the 50-day average of $17.84 and the 200-day average of $17.98 (adjusted daily closes), and 49% above nothing in the earnings record is needed to explain the trend.\n\n## Bear Case\n\n- **The namesake brand is still shrinking.** American Eagle brand comparable sales fell 1% in the quarter ended 2026-08-01 (company release, 2026-09-09).\n- **Refunds carried the margin.** Gross margin reached 48.7%, up 980 basis points, of which tariff refunds contributed 1,300 basis points (2026-09-09 release). The refunds more than account for the whole increase.\n- **Inventory is growing faster than sales.** Inventory at cost rose 14% and units rose 9% at 2026-08-01, against 8% revenue growth. That raises the risk of holiday markdowns.\n- **Costs are rising faster than sales.** The company guided fiscal 2026 selling, general and administrative expense up low double digits (2026-09-09 release), ahead of its mid-single-digit comparable sales guide.\n- **The price is above analyst targets.** The $21.67 close on 2026-11-12 exceeds the $18.55 average target and BMO Capital's $20 target, with no estimate changes since the September report.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n\nThe shares closed at $21.67 on 2026-11-12. The 52-week closing low was $14.53 on 2026-09-10, the session after the second-quarter report. The 52-week intraday high is $28.46 from 2026-01-06.\n\nThe close is above both the 50-day average of $17.84 and the 200-day average of $17.98 (adjusted daily closes, as of 2026-11-12). The two averages are nearly level with each other, and the shares sit well above both.\n\nSEC Form 4 filings show four directors received grants of 3,617 shares each on 2026-10-01. Two of them sold 3,617 shares in the open market: Noel Spiegel at $17.68 on 2026-10-02 and Cary McMillan at $18.20 on 2026-10-06. Both sales came at prices well below the current close.\n\nThe third-quarter report, expected around 2026-12-02, is about three weeks away.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **2026-11-27:** Black Friday holiday shopping kickoff. Industry traffic and discounting reads show whether the 14% inventory build clears without heavy markdowns.\n- **~2026-12-02 (est.):** Third-quarter fiscal 2026 report. Tests the mid-to-high single-digit comparable sales guide and the $110–115 million operating income guide, and shows whether the American Eagle brand has stopped shrinking.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close above $24.14, which would put the shares well above the recent range and show them leading the S&P 500 despite the analyst targets. Third-quarter operating income above the $115 million top of the guide would also show the shares leading.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n\nAmerican Eagle trades with mall and teen-and-young-adult apparel retailers and with consumer discretionary spending more broadly. The 2026-11-09 jump came with a rebound in consumer-discretionary stocks as a group, per Finviz. Holiday traffic, promotional intensity and tariff policy move the group together. The Aerie/OFFLINE intimates and activewear business gives the company exposure to a different demand pattern than denim-led peers.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-10",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-13T00:52:29+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-13",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-13",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}