{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "AGEN",
  "name": "Agenus Inc.",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AGEN/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AGEN.json",
  "status": "DORMANT",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a4",
    "n": 4
  },
  "current_thesis": "Agenus is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: the shares closed at $6.87 on 12 November 2026, and its funded ROBBIN colon cancer Phase 3 has no pivotal milestone before first-patient dosing guided for the first quarter of 2027.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close above $8.45, a level the shares last exceeded in the run to their September high, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. First-patient dosing in ROBBIN ahead of the first-quarter 2027 guidance would also show the call is wrong.",
  "catalyst_date": null,
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [
    "oncology-immunology"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "caveats": [],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "Agenus Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results Highlighted by First Marketing Authorizations for BOTBAL and Global Investigator Support for Phase 3 ROBBIN Study",
      "url": "https://finviz.com/news/416839/agenus-reports-third-quarter-2026-results-highlighted-by-first-marketing-authorizations-for-botbal-and-global-investigator-support-for-phase-3-robbin-study",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Finviz",
      "url": "https://finviz.com/news/418400/agenus-reports-more-than-half-of-patients-with-refractory-mss-metastatic-colorectal-cancer-achieved-long-term-survival-following-botbal-treatment-at-sitc-2026",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Agenus Q3 2026 net income drops 96% year over year to $2.8 million",
      "url": "https://capital.com/en-int/news/agenus-q3-2026-net-income-drops-96-year-over-year",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Business Wire",
      "url": "https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260713089967/en/agenus-announces-oversubscribed-private-placement-of-up-to-340-million-to-advance-registrational-robbin-trial-of-neoadjuvant-botbal-in-mss-colon-cancer/",
      "date": "2026-07-13"
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments were $86.9 million on 2026-09-30, up from $18.7 million on 2026-06-30; upfront proceeds fund operations through the third quarter of 2027.",
      "source": "Agenus third-quarter 2026 results release, 2026-11-05",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $31.5 million (third quarter of 2025: $30.2 million): $25.5 million non-cash royalty revenue and $6.0 million pre-commercial product revenue; operating income $11.4 million; net income $2.8 million.",
      "source": "Agenus third-quarter 2026 results release, 2026-11-05",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "ROBBIN (about 850 patients, event-free survival endpoint) is guided for first patient in the first quarter of 2027, 60 patients in the second quarter of 2027 and an interim pathologic response assessment of 100 patients in the fourth quarter of 2027.",
      "source": "Agenus third-quarter 2026 results release, 2026-11-05",
      "as_of": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "claim": "NEST and UNICORN Phase 2 pre-surgery studies reported roughly 30% pathologic complete response in MSS colon cancer; UNICORN was published in Nature Medicine.",
      "source": "Agenus third-quarter 2026 results release, 2026-11-05; Agenus announcement, 2026-11-02",
      "as_of": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "claim": "NEOASIS dMMR colon cohort (18 patients): 72% pathologic complete response and 83% major pathologic response after six weeks of treatment.",
      "source": "Agenus ESMO 2026 release, 2026-10-25",
      "as_of": "2026-10-25"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Long-term C-800-01 data showed 33% three-year overall survival in refractory MSS metastatic colorectal cancer.",
      "source": "Agenus third-quarter 2026 results release, 2026-11-05",
      "as_of": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Private placement of about $85 million upfront, up to $340 million with warrants; Series A warrants on 21,144,277 shares at $4.02 and Series B on 33,797,214 shares at $5.03.",
      "source": "Agenus press release and Form 8-K, 2026-07-13",
      "as_of": "2026-07-13"
    },
    {
      "claim": "B. Riley Securities reiterated Buy on Agenus and raised its price target to $16.",
      "source": "B. Riley Securities rating headline, 2026-11-09",
      "as_of": "2026-11-09"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [],
  "frame": null,
  "filed_numbers": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-13",
    "sector": "Healthcare",
    "financials": {
      "status": "ok",
      "reason": null,
      "close_date": "2026-11-13",
      "latest_quarter": "2026-09-30",
      "figures": {
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              "yoy_pct": 4.1
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              "yoy_pct": 27.5
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              "yoy_pct": 20.4
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              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 25.7,
              "yoy_pct": 9.3
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        "gross_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
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              "restated": null,
              "pct": 100
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              "restated": null,
              "pct": 100
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              "pct": 97.9
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              "filed": "2025-08-11",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 99.1
            }
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        },
        "operating_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-05",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 36.2
            },
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              "filed": "2026-08-07",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 32.7
            },
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              "filed": "2026-05-11",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 44.6
            },
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              "filed": "2026-03-16",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 42.1
            },
            {
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              "filed": "2025-11-10",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -15
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              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-08-11",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -65
            }
          ]
        },
        "pretax_income": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "net_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "four_quarters_end": "2026-09-30",
          "value_musd": 2.7,
          "four_quarters_musd": 30.8
        },
        "operating_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": -103.9
        },
        "capital_spending": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 0
        },
        "free_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": -103.9
        },
        "diluted_share_change": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "base_end": "2025-09-30",
          "pct": 153.4
        },
        "cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 86.9
        },
        "debt": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 35.1,
          "composition": "long-term debt plus short-term borrowings"
        },
        "net_cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 51.8
        },
        "deferred_revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 1.1,
          "yoy_pct": 0
        },
        "backlog": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "receivables": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 17.1
        },
        "inventory": {
          "status": "not reported"
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        "equity": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": -105.4
        },
        "market_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-11-03",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 304.5
        },
        "enterprise_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-11-03",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 252.7
        },
        "ev_sales": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-11-03",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-05",
          "multiple": 1.9
        },
        "ev_ebit": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-11-03",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-05",
          "multiple": 4.8
        },
        "pe": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-11-03",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-05",
          "multiple": 9.9
        },
        "pb": {
          "status": "not meaningful"
        },
        "fcf_yield": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-11-03",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-05",
          "pct": -34.1
        }
      }
    },
    "short_interest": {
      "status": "ok",
      "settlement": "2026-10-15",
      "published": "2026-10-26",
      "short_pct_of_outstanding": 15.48,
      "days_to_cover": 6.5,
      "change_pct": 2.7
    },
    "insiders": {
      "status": "ok",
      "as_of": "2026-11-15",
      "windows": [
        {
          "days": 90,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2026-08-18",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 0,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        },
        {
          "days": 365,
          "status": "ok",
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          "bought_unpriced": 0,
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  },
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\n\nAgenus is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. The shares closed at $6.87 on 2026-11-12, and the company has no pivotal milestone before first-patient dosing in its ROBBIN Phase 3 trial, guided for the first quarter of 2027, which settles whether the funded plan stays on schedule.\n\nThe 2026-11-05 third-quarter report answered the funding question for now. Cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments were $86.9 million on 2026-09-30, against $18.7 million on 2026-06-30, and the company says the upfront proceeds fund operations through the third quarter of 2027.\n\nROBBIN is an approximately 850-patient trial of botensilimab plus balstilimab before surgery in Stage II/III microsatellite-stable (MSS) colon cancer. Its primary endpoint is event-free survival. The company says site qualification and start-up are under way in North America, Europe, South America and Asia (Agenus third-quarter release, 2026-11-05).\n\nThe warrants from the July 2026 placement tie further cash to trial milestones. Series A (strike $4.02) is tied to 60 patients enrolled, guided for the second quarter of 2027. Series B (strike $5.03) is tied to an interim pathologic response read, guided for the fourth quarter of 2027. Both strikes sit below the 2026-11-12 close.\n\nThe shares have already absorbed the funding, the Nature Medicine publication and the survival data. They closed at $7.22 on 2026-11-11 and fell to $6.87 on 2026-11-12, below their 50-day average and 6.1% lower than the close of $7.32 on 2026-08-14.\n\n## Bull Case\n\n- **Cash is reported and funds the start-up.** Cash was $86.9 million on 2026-09-30, up from $18.7 million three months earlier, after the placement of about $85 million upfront led by Commodore Capital (Agenus third-quarter release, 2026-11-05; placement release, 2026-07-13). Agenus says this covers ROBBIN initiation, regulatory work and operations through the third quarter of 2027.\n- **Phase 2 data exist in MSS colon cancer.** The NEST and UNICORN pre-surgery studies reported pathologic complete response in roughly 30% of MSS colon cancer patients (Agenus third-quarter release, 2026-11-05). UNICORN was published in Nature Medicine on 2026-11-02.\n- **Deep responses in dMMR disease.** The NEOASIS cohort of 18 mismatch-repair-deficient (dMMR) colon cancer patients had 72% pathologic complete response and 83% major pathologic response after six weeks of treatment (Agenus ESMO release, 2026-10-25).\n- **Long-term survival is reported.** Long-term C-800-01 data showed 33% three-year overall survival in refractory MSS metastatic colorectal cancer (Agenus third-quarter release, 2026-11-05; SITC release, 2026-11-06).\n- **A broker target sits far above the price.** B. Riley Securities reiterated Buy and raised its price target to $16 on 2026-11-09, after the third-quarter report.\n\n## Bear Case\n\n- **Reported profit is largely non-cash.** Third-quarter revenue was $31.5 million (third quarter of 2025: $30.2 million), of which $25.5 million was non-cash royalty revenue and $6.0 million was pre-commercial product revenue. Operating income was $11.4 million and net income $2.8 million (Agenus third-quarter release, 2026-11-05).\n- **Warrant exercise adds share supply.** Series A warrants cover 21,144,277 shares and Series B warrants cover 33,797,214 shares (placement release, 2026-07-13). Agenus had 45,161,916 shares outstanding on 2026-09-08 (Form S-3, filed 2026-09-11). Series A warrants expire 30 days after Agenus discloses 60 patients dosed.\n- **Runway past 2027 depends on trial pace.** Without warrant cash, upfront funding ends in the third quarter of 2027, and the Series A trigger is guided for the second quarter of 2027.\n- **Good news has not lifted the shares.** The close of $6.87 on 2026-11-12 is below the 50-day average and well under the 52-week intraday high of $10.31 set on 2026-09-30, after the Nature Medicine publication, the ESMO data and the SITC survival data.\n- **Population gap.** NEOASIS tested dMMR disease, and the 33% survival figure comes from late-line metastatic patients. ROBBIN enrols MSS patients before surgery, where the roughly 30% response rate comes from Phase 2 studies.\n- **A second Phase 3 was dropped.** As of 2026-07-13 Agenus no longer financially supports BATTMAN in late-line metastatic MSS colorectal cancer, which concentrates the company on ROBBIN.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n\nThe shares closed at $6.87 on 2026-11-12. The 50-day average is $7.40 and the 200-day average is $5.09, both adjusted and as of that close. The shares sit below the first and above the second. The 3-month change is −6.1%.\n\nRecent closes were $6.44 on 2026-11-05, $7.15 on 2026-11-06 and 2026-11-09, $7.02 on 2026-11-10 and $7.22 on 2026-11-11. The 52-week intraday high is $10.31 (2026-09-30), and the 52-week closing low is $2.77 (2026-02-05). The last close is 33.4% below the quoted high.\n\nBoth warrant strikes, $4.02 and $5.03, are below the price, so the warrants are in the money. The only insider transaction itemised in SEC filings is a Form 4 filed 2026-10-02 reporting a grant of 4,443 shares to director Thomas L. Harrison at $6.89 on 2026-10-01. Two more Form 4 filings since 2026-08-15 are not itemised. No earnings report falls inside the next 30 days.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **~2026-11-16 (est.):** Quarterly 13F filing deadline for holdings at 2026-09-30. Shows whether investors in the July 2026 placement changed their Agenus holdings.\n- **~2027-03 (est.):** ROBBIN Phase 3 first-patient dosing (first quarter of 2027 guidance). Confirms the funded plan is on schedule; a slip would weaken the timeline the financing was raised to support.\n- **~2027-06 (est.):** Target of 60 patients enrolled in ROBBIN (second quarter of 2027 guidance). Starts the 30-day expiry clock on Series A warrants and brings the first warrant cash.\n- **~2027-12 (est.):** Interim pathologic response assessment of the first 100 ROBBIN patients (fourth quarter of 2027 guidance). First read of ROBBIN's pre-surgery response in MSS patients and the Series B warrant milestone.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close above $8.45, a level the shares last exceeded in the run to their September high, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. First-patient dosing in ROBBIN ahead of the first-quarter 2027 guidance would also show the call is wrong.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n\nThe shares trade with small-cap biotechnology and immuno-oncology sentiment, and with the investors who hold the July placement. No correlation figures are published here. The ESMO, Nature Medicine and SITC releases of late October and early November moved the shares less than the financing news of 2026-07-13, so company-specific trial timing carries more weight than the sector at present.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-10",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-13T03:13:21+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-13",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-13",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}