{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "AIFF",
  "name": "Firefly Neuroscience, Inc.",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AIFF/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AIFF.json",
  "status": "DORMANT",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a7",
    "n": 7
  },
  "current_thesis": "Firefly Neuroscience's third-quarter revenue rose to $647,000, but cash fell to $8.0 million with going-concern doubt unresolved, and the shares at $0.96 are more likely to lag the S&P 500; unannounced revenue terms from its partnerships settle it.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close above $1.37, the 200-day average of closes, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong; a disclosed contract with stated revenue to Firefly would point the same way.",
  "catalyst_date": null,
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [
    "medtech-diagnostics"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "caveats": [],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "Firefly Q3 Revenue Rises 67% to $647 Thousand as Gross Margin Expands to 81%",
      "url": "https://www.panabee.com/news/firefly-neuroscience-earnings-q3-2026",
      "date": "2026-11-10"
    },
    {
      "title": "BioPharmaWatch",
      "url": "https://www.biopharmawatch.com/news/AIFF/firefly-neuroscience-bci-growth-strategy",
      "date": "2026-10-27"
    },
    {
      "title": "minichart.com.sg",
      "url": "https://www.minichart.com.sg/2026/03/13/firefly-neuroscience-inc-announces-private-placement-securities-purchase-agreement-and-warrant-issuance/",
      "date": "2026-03-13"
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $647,000, up 67% year on year, with gross margin of 81% against 38% a year earlier.",
      "source": "Form 10-Q filed 2026-11-10, via Panabee summary",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Cash and equivalents were $8.0 million on 2026-09-30; nine-month operating cash use was $4.8 million; accumulated deficit was $117.0 million; going-concern doubt remains.",
      "source": "Form 10-Q filed 2026-11-10, via Panabee summary",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "The $7.4 million at-the-market equity program had no sales through 2026-09-30.",
      "source": "Form 10-Q filed 2026-11-10, via Panabee summary",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Second-quarter 2026 revenue was $514,000, against $299,000 in the second quarter of 2025.",
      "source": "June 2026 Form 10-Q",
      "as_of": "2026-06-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Nine-month 2026 net loss was $5.5 million, a 69% reduction from the same period of 2025.",
      "source": "Form 10-Q filed 2026-11-10, via Panabee summary",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Firefly said more than 3,000 Versus EEG headsets have shipped; the release gave no revenue figure.",
      "source": "Company release (GlobeNewswire) via BiopharmaWatch",
      "as_of": "2026-10-27"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Chief financial officer Paul Krzywicki was terminated effective 2026-09-24, and a chief accounting officer was appointed.",
      "source": "Form 8-K filed 2026-09-14",
      "as_of": "2026-09-14"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [],
  "frame": null,
  "filed_numbers": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-13",
    "sector": "Technology",
    "financials": {
      "status": "ok",
      "reason": null,
      "close_date": "2026-11-13",
      "latest_quarter": "2026-09-30",
      "figures": {
        "revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-10",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 0.6,
              "yoy_pct": 66.8
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-11",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 0.5,
              "yoy_pct": 71.9
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-05-13",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 0.5,
              "yoy_pct": 1027.9
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-03-31",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 0.4,
              "yoy_pct": 677.4
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-11-12",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 0.4,
              "yoy_pct": 1075.8
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-08-13",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 0.3,
              "yoy_pct": 2890
            }
          ]
        },
        "gross_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-10",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 81.1
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-11",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 49.2
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-05-13",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 45.6
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-03-31",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 44.2
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-11-12",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 37.6
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-08-13",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 91.6
            }
          ]
        },
        "operating_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-10",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -238.3
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-11",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -384
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-05-13",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -414.4
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-03-31",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -607
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-11-12",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -684.5
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-08-13",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -546.5
            }
          ]
        },
        "pretax_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-10",
          "value_musd": -1.5
        },
        "net_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-10",
          "four_quarters_end": "2026-09-30",
          "value_musd": -1.5,
          "four_quarters_musd": -7.9
        },
        "operating_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-10",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": -6.6
        },
        "capital_spending": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "free_cash_flow": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "diluted_share_change": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2025-09-30",
          "filed": "2025-11-12",
          "base_end": "2024-09-30",
          "pct": 90.6
        },
        "cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-10",
          "value_musd": 8
        },
        "debt": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2025-12-31",
          "filed": "2026-03-31",
          "value_musd": 0,
          "composition": "convertible debt"
        },
        "net_cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2025-12-31",
          "filed": "2026-11-10",
          "value_musd": 2.7
        },
        "deferred_revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-10",
          "value_musd": 0.1,
          "yoy_pct": -67.3
        },
        "backlog": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "receivables": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-10",
          "value_musd": 0.2
        },
        "inventory": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-10",
          "value_musd": 0.1
        },
        "equity": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-10",
          "value_musd": 13.4
        },
        "market_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-11-06",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-10",
          "value_musd": 14.7
        },
        "enterprise_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-11-06",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-10",
          "value_musd": 12
        },
        "ev_sales": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-11-06",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-10",
          "multiple": 5.8
        },
        "ev_ebit": {
          "status": "not meaningful"
        },
        "pe": {
          "status": "not meaningful"
        },
        "pb": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-11-06",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-10",
          "multiple": 1.1
        },
        "fcf_yield": {
          "status": "not available"
        }
      }
    },
    "short_interest": {
      "status": "ok",
      "settlement": "2026-10-15",
      "published": "2026-10-26",
      "short_pct_of_outstanding": 4.77,
      "days_to_cover": 2.9,
      "change_pct": -31.6
    },
    "insiders": {
      "status": "ok",
      "as_of": "2026-11-15",
      "windows": [
        {
          "days": 90,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2026-08-18",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 0,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        },
        {
          "days": 365,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2025-11-16",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 0,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\nFirefly Neuroscience's third-quarter revenue grew, but the company is still small, still burning cash and still carrying going-concern doubt, so the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it over three months. What settles the call is whether the Radial, NeuroSigma and Versus headset arrangements produce revenue the company states in dollars.\n\nThe Form 10-Q filed 2026-11-10, as summarised by Panabee, shows third-quarter revenue of $647,000, up 67% from the third quarter of 2025 and above the $514,000 reported for the second quarter. Gross margin was 81%, against 38% a year earlier. Cash and equivalents were $8.0 million on 2026-09-30, down from $9.23 million on 2026-06-30. The shares closed at $0.96 on 2026-11-12, 69.5% below the 52-week intraday high of $3.15 set on 2026-03-26.\n\n## Bull Case\n- **Revenue is growing from a small base.** Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $647,000, against $514,000 in the second quarter of 2026 and $299,000 in the second quarter of 2025, per the Form 10-Q filings.\n- **Gross margin widened sharply.** Panabee's summary of the 10-Q reports an 81% gross margin and $525,000 of gross profit for the third quarter, against a 38% margin a year earlier.\n- **Losses have narrowed.** The nine-month 2026 net loss was $5.5 million, a 69% reduction from the same period of 2025, per Panabee's summary of the 10-Q. The six-month loss reported in the June 10-Q was $3.99 million, against $14.76 million a year earlier.\n- **Three commercial channels exist.** Firefly announced a Radial integration on 2026-09-17 and clinician outreach for NeuroSigma's Monarch eTNS pediatric ADHD device on 2026-09-25. On 2026-10-27 it said more than 3,000 Versus headsets have shipped.\n- **No new shares were sold under the at-the-market program.** Panabee's summary reports the $7.4 million program was untapped on 2026-09-30.\n\n## Bear Case\n- **Cash is falling against a going-concern warning.** Cash was $8.0 million on 2026-09-30, and Panabee's summary of the 10-Q says substantial doubt about continuing as a going concern remains, with a $117.0 million accumulated deficit and $4.8 million of operating cash used in nine months.\n- **No partnership states its economics.** The Radial, NeuroSigma and Versus releases of 2026-09-17, 2026-09-25 and 2026-10-27 give no revenue figure attributable to Firefly, and the third-quarter report offers no guidance, per Panabee.\n- **Financing remains available at prices above the market.** The March 2026 purchase agreement priced units at $1.50 and gave investors the right to invest up to $18 million more in later closings. The shares closed at $0.96 on 2026-11-12, so any new issuance would come at a lower price or with more shares.\n- **Control weaknesses persist.** Panabee's summary reports unremediated material weaknesses in internal control over financial reporting, with management targeting remediation by the second quarter of 2027.\n- **Finance leadership changed.** An 8-K filed 2026-09-14 disclosed the termination of chief financial officer Paul Krzywicki, effective 2026-09-24, and the appointment of a chief accounting officer.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\nThe shares closed at $0.96 on 2026-11-12. That is below the 50-day average of $1.14 and below the 200-day average, and 11.6% lower than the adjusted close of $1.09 on 2026-08-14, the three-month reference date. The 52-week closing low is $0.64, set on 2026-02-23.\n\nRecent closes show a rebound from the lows of the period. The shares closed at $0.91 on 2026-11-05 and 2026-11-06, $0.95 on 2026-11-09, $0.98 on 2026-11-10 and $1.04 on 2026-11-11, then gave back to $0.96 on 2026-11-12. The $1.04 close is the first above $1.00 in this run, so Nasdaq's 30-business-day minimum bid price count, if it was running, would restart on closes above that level.\n\nThe report is out and no scheduled company event sits inside the next 30 days. Price direction now depends on financing filings and any partnership revenue disclosure.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\nNo dated event is on file for this company as of 2026-11-12.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close above $1.37, the 200-day average of closes, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong; a disclosed contract with stated revenue to Firefly would point the same way.\n\n## Correlation Notes\nFirefly trades on its own company news, not on a peer group or an index. Its September move came from two partnership releases, and its November moves followed the third-quarter filing. It is a microcap, with a market value of $18.6 million on Benzinga's 2026-09-25 figure, so single press releases and financing filings drive the price more than market direction does.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-10",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-12T22:25:51+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-12",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-12",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}