{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "APP",
  "name": "AppLovin Corporation",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/APP/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/APP.json",
  "status": "WATCHLIST",
  "current_conviction": "MEDIUM",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a3",
    "n": 3
  },
  "current_thesis": "AppLovin's third-quarter 2026 revenue rose 55% to $2.185 billion and put growth back on track. The fourth-quarter report, expected around February 2027, shows whether its partly rolled-out ad models hold growth above the guided 43–44%.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close below $350, under the $356.10 close of 2026-11-05 and between the $347 Wells Fargo and $355 Piper Sandler targets, which would erase most of the post-report gain. Fourth-quarter 2026 revenue below the $2,365 million low end of guidance would also break the case.",
  "catalyst_date": null,
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [
    "adtech-digital-advertising"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "caveats": [],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "AppLovin Corp - Form 8-K - FY2026",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001751008/000175100826000068/exhibit991-3q26earningspre.htm",
      "date": "2026-11-04"
    },
    {
      "title": "AppLovin's Q3 revenue grows 55% to $2.18B, sending stock soaring after hours",
      "url": "https://stockanalysis.com/news/applovin-q3-2026-earnings/",
      "date": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "title": "APP Shareholder Alert: November 16, 2026 Lead Plaintiff Deadline in AppLovin Corporation Securities Class Action - Contact Levi & Korsinsky",
      "url": "https://www.webull.com/news/15599959500063744",
      "date": "2026-09-18"
    },
    {
      "title": "Applovin (APP) Q3 2026 earnings summary",
      "url": "https://quartr.com/events/applovin-corporation-app-q3-2026_ozPMhvrG",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "APP Stock Plunges 28% After-Hours On Revenue Miss And Soft Guidance — But CFO Says SEC Probe On Firm Now Closed",
      "url": "https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/app-stock-plunges-28-after-hours-on-revenue-miss-and-soft-guidance-but-cfo-says-sec-probe-on-firm-now-closed/cZoI49mRJeZ",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "AppLovin faces SEC probe as data practices come under fire",
      "url": "https://www.emarketer.com/content/applovin-faces-sec-probe-data-practices-under-fire",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "AppLovin shares tumble as revenue miss and cautious outlook outweigh earnings beat",
      "url": "https://finviz.com/news/378267/applovin-shares-tumble-as-revenue-miss-and-cautious-outlook-outweigh-earnings-beat",
      "date": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $2,185 million, up 55% from $1,405 million a year earlier; net income was $1,439 million and diluted EPS $4.30.",
      "source": "AppLovin 8-K exhibit 99.1, Q3 2026 results",
      "as_of": "2026-11-04"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Third-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA was $1,842 million at an 84% margin; free cash flow was $1,418 million.",
      "source": "AppLovin 8-K exhibit 99.1, Q3 2026 results",
      "as_of": "2026-11-04"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Fourth-quarter 2026 guidance: revenue $2,365–$2,395 million and adjusted EBITDA $1,995–$2,025 million at an 84–85% margin.",
      "source": "AppLovin 8-K exhibit 99.1, Q3 2026 results",
      "as_of": "2026-11-04"
    },
    {
      "claim": "AppLovin repurchased or withheld 4.1 million Class A shares for about $1.4 billion in Q3 2026; the board raised the authorisation to $3.6 billion.",
      "source": "AppLovin 8-K exhibit 99.1, Q3 2026 results",
      "as_of": "2026-11-04"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Cash and equivalents were $3,174 million and long-term debt $3,516 million at quarter end.",
      "source": "AppLovin 8-K exhibit 99.1, Q3 2026 results",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Second-quarter 2026 revenue of $1.92 billion missed a $1.94 billion consensus; the shares closed down 19.66% at $335.67.",
      "source": "Levi & Korsinsky class-action notice via Business Wire",
      "as_of": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "claim": "RBC Capital raised its AppLovin target to $520 and Macquarie to $470 (both Outperform); Scotiabank cut its target to $450.",
      "source": "Benzinga analyst rating headlines",
      "as_of": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Phillip Securities cut its AppLovin target to $470 from $610; Wells Fargo ($347) and Piper Sandler ($355) raised targets on 2026-11-06.",
      "source": "Fiscal.ai and Benzinga analyst headlines",
      "as_of": "2026-11-10"
    }
  ],
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    "sector": "Technology",
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        "gross_margin": {
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          "status": "ok",
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        "pretax_income": {
          "status": "ok",
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        "net_income": {
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        "capital_spending": {
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          "value_musd": 2388.8
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          "value_musd": 3298.7
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          "value_musd": 136954
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      "short_pct_of_outstanding": 3.33,
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  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\nAppLovin's third-quarter 2026 report put growth back on track: revenue rose 55% to $2.185 billion, above the $2.07 billion midpoint of the company's August guidance. The fourth-quarter report, expected around February 2027, settles whether the ad models, so far only partly rolled out, keep growth above the 43–44% the company has guided.\n\nThe case rests on AppLovin's ad-targeting models for mobile games and, increasingly, for advertisers outside gaming. In its 8-K exhibit dated 2026-11-04, the company reported adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation, as adjusted by the company) of $1,842 million, an 84% margin, and free cash flow of $1,418 million. That cash pays for buybacks of a size few software companies match.\n\nThe rating is Medium because the third quarter answered the August miss with a dated number, while the fourth-quarter guide already implies slower growth and the shares have recovered fast. The price reflects a recovery, not a return to peak expectations: the shares closed at $393.68 on 2026-11-12, 46.7% below the 52-week intraday high of $738.01 set on 2025-12-22.\n\n## Bull Case\n- **Sequential growth beat the company's own pace.** Third-quarter revenue grew 14% from the second quarter, according to StockAnalysis on 2026-11-05. The August guidance midpoint of $2.07 billion had implied about 7.8% sequential growth.\n- **Cash generation funds large buybacks.** In the third quarter AppLovin spent about $1.4 billion to repurchase or withhold 4.1 million Class A shares, and the board raised the authorisation to $3.6 billion (8-K exhibit, 2026-11-04).\n- **The model rollout is incomplete.** On the 2026-11-04 call, CEO Adam Foroughi said only part of the next-generation ad models has been deployed. He gave no date for the full rollout.\n- **Advertisers outside gaming are growing.** Spending by consumer advertisers outside gaming rose by double digits from the second quarter, according to StockAnalysis on 2026-11-05.\n- **Outperform-rated brokers raised targets.** On 2026-11-05, RBC Capital raised its target to $520 and Macquarie to $470, both rating the shares Outperform, according to Benzinga.\n\n## Bear Case\n- **Fourth-quarter guidance implies slower growth.** The company guided fourth-quarter revenue to $2,365–$2,395 million, 43–44% year-over-year growth against 55% in the third quarter (8-K exhibit, 2026-11-04). CFO Matt Stumpf attributed the step-down to seasonality and added compute spending.\n- **Some targets are falling, not rising.** Phillip Securities cut its target to $470 from $610 on 2026-11-10, according to Fiscal.ai, and Scotiabank cut its target to $450 on 2026-11-05. Wells Fargo ($347, Equal-Weight) and Piper Sandler ($355, Neutral) set targets on 2026-11-06 that sit below the 2026-11-12 close of $393.68.\n- **The August miss shows how fast the shares can fall.** Second-quarter revenue of $1.92 billion missed a $1.94 billion consensus, and the shares closed down 19.66% at $335.67 on 2026-08-06, according to a Levi & Korsinsky notice published through Business Wire.\n- **A securities class action is pending.** The suit covers buyers from 2026-02-12 to 2026-08-05 and alleges management overstated the pace of model improvement and did not disclose a delay to a generative-AI video tool; the lead-plaintiff deadline is 2026-11-16.\n- **Regulatory and short-seller questions follow the company.** Reuters reported in February 2026 that an SEC inquiry into AppLovin's data practices was \"still active and ongoing\"; Stocktwits later quoted CFO Matt Stumpf saying the agency \"concluded its inquiry with no recommended action.\" CapitalWatch published allegations in January 2026 that AppLovin called \"false, misleading, and nonsensical.\"\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\nThe shares closed at $356.10 on 2026-11-05, the first session after the report, then $391.22 on 2026-11-06 and $410.00 on 2026-11-09. They have since eased to $404.77 on 2026-11-11 and $393.68 on 2026-11-12. The 3-month change is +24.8% from the $315.44 close of 2026-08-14.\n\nOn adjusted daily closes as of 2026-11-12, the 50-day moving average is $300.22 and the 200-day moving average is $406.60. The shares sit just under the 200-day average after briefly closing above it on 2026-11-09 and 2026-11-11. The 52-week closing low is $228.50 on 2026-10-30, four sessions before the report.\n\nSEC Form 4 filings dated 2026-11-02 record stock awards granted on 2026-10-29, among them 273,691 shares to CTO Xiaochuan Ge and 128,055 shares to CEO Adam Foroughi; they record no open-market purchases. No earnings date falls in the 30 days after 2026-11-12.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **~2027-02-11 (est.):** Fourth-quarter 2026 report. Shows whether revenue lands inside the $2,365–$2,395 million guidance and whether the partly deployed ad models lift growth beyond the guided 43–44%.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close below $350, under the $356.10 close of 2026-11-05 and between the $347 Wells Fargo and $355 Piper Sandler targets, which would erase most of the post-report gain. Fourth-quarter 2026 revenue below the $2,365 million low end of guidance would also break the case.\n\nThe risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:\n\n- Growth slows faster than guided as the model-driven gains from the third quarter fade. Confirmed by: Fourth-quarter revenue sequential growth under 8%, or a first-quarter 2027 revenue guide implying year-over-year growth below 40%, at the early-2027 report.\n- The securities class action over statements made between February and August 2026 advances. Confirmed by: A court denying AppLovin's motion to dismiss, or a settlement or loss accrual disclosed in a 10-Q or 10-K.\n- Regulatory scrutiny of the company's data-collection practices returns. Confirmed by: A disclosed SEC or other regulatory enforcement action, or a platform partner restricting AppLovin's data access.\n- A broad sell-off in AI-linked technology stocks drags the shares regardless of results. Confirmed by: Further multi-percent Nasdaq declines like the AI sell-off of 2026-11-05, with AppLovin falling alongside.\n- Short-seller allegations resurface and gain traction. Confirmed by: A new short report followed by an auditor, regulator or partner response that validates any of its claims.\n\n## Correlation Notes\nAppLovin trades with high-growth Nasdaq technology and AI names. Benzinga reported on 2026-11-05 that the VIX volatility index jumped 39% as an AI-stock sell-off erased $2.2 trillion in market value, the backdrop to AppLovin's post-report gain. Its revenue depends on mobile-game advertiser budgets, which ties it to the game-engine and ad peer Unity Software. Quarterly results from Meta and Alphabet act as a read-across for digital advertising demand.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-10",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-12T22:56:31+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-12",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-12",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}