{ "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json", "ticker": "APPS", "name": "Digital Turbine, Inc.", "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/APPS/", "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/APPS.json", "status": "DORMANT", "current_conviction": "MEDIUM", "graded_conviction": null, "archetype": { "code": "a4", "n": 4 }, "current_thesis": "Digital Turbine’s mobile-advertising recovery supports a renewed re-rating case after the September price rebound. A weekly close above the $14.39 reference high would complete the price case; a weekly close below $9.50 or a cut to fiscal 2027 revenue guidance would invalidate it.", "invalidation_trigger": "A weekly close below $9.50 invalidates the post-results recovery case, retaining the research threshold published on 2026-09-05; separately, a cut to fiscal 2027 revenue guidance of $650–670 million breaks the operating premise.", "catalyst_date": null, "outcome": "OPEN", "outcome_date": null, "invalidation_fired": null, "themes": [ "ai-enterprise-software", "precision-biotech-therapeutics", "consumer-discretionary-rotation" ], "tags": [], "sources": [], "notes": [ "Fiscal year ends 31 March: the \"Q1 FY2027\" figures cited throughout cover the quarter ended 2026-06-30.", "The Q1 FY2027 earnings exhibit was amended via 8-K/A; GAAP net loss differs between the original ($3.2M) and amended ($11.3M) versions, while revenue and adjusted EBITDA do not.", "Analyst coverage is thin — aggregators count two to three firms — so published consensus targets swing on a single revision and range from $7.50 to $16.00.", "Secured term-loan debt carried an 11.65% average interest rate in the June-2026 quarter, with a $5.0M duration fee tied to a 2026-12-31 repayment condition." ], "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\n\nDigital Turbine’s mobile-advertising recovery supports a renewed re-rating case, tested by a weekly close above the $14.39 reference high before a weekly close below $9.50 invalidates it. The operating anchor remains the fiscal first-quarter results amended on 2026-08-05; the measurable change since the previous assessment is the 2026-09-11 adjusted close of $11.81, compared with $10.71 on 2026-09-04. Those observations establish a price recovery; the sample is too small to establish durable demand.\n\nAs an inference, the narrative is maturing — the August results remain the operating catalyst, while the company’s calendar checked on 2026-09-13 lists no upcoming events. The 2026-09-08 filing adds executive compensation disclosures, without updating revenue guidance. Neither observation establishes expanding investor participation. [Company calendar](https://ir.digitalturbine.com/news-events/ir-calendar), [September filing](https://content.equisolve.net/sec/0001628280-26-060913/apps-20260901.htm).\n\n## Bull Case\n\n- **App platform leads growth.** For the quarter ended 2026-06-30, App Growth Platform revenue before intercompany eliminations reached $56.6 million, up 56% year over year, while total revenue reached $166.0 million, up 27%. [2026-08-05 amended results](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/317788/000162828026053445/form8-kaxexhibit991q1fy2027.htm).\n- **Legacy distribution also contributes.** On Device Solutions revenue before intercompany eliminations grew 15% to $110.0 million in the quarter ended 2026-06-30. Both reported segments therefore contributed growth. [Amended results](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/317788/000162828026053445/form8-kaxexhibit991q1fy2027.htm).\n- **Profit growth exceeds revenue growth.** Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) increased 69% to $42.5 million for the quarter ended 2026-06-30. The amended release retained fiscal 2027 guidance of $650–670 million revenue and $145–155 million adjusted EBITDA. [2026-08-05 amended exhibit](https://ir.digitalturbine.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001628280-26-053445/form8-kaxexhibit991q1fy2027.htm).\n\n## Bear Case\n\n- **Debt remains a constraint.** The 2026-06-30 Form 10-Q reported long-term debt, net, of $343.5 million against approximately $42.9 million unrestricted cash. Its reported average secured-loan interest rate was 11.65% during that quarter; these figures do not establish that operating improvement has resolved financing pressure.\n- **Contractual financing cost remains pending.** The same 2026-06-30 filing identifies an additional $5.0 million duration fee if specified loans are not repaid by 2026-12-31. Incurrence of that fee would confirm this particular financing risk.\n- **Amended loss warrants attention.** The 2026-08-05 amendment reports an $11.3 million loss under generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), compared with $3.2 million in the original 2026-08-04 exhibit. A further amendment or restatement would deepen the reporting concern; the existing amendment alone does not establish a recurring problem. [Original exhibit](https://ir.digitalturbine.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001628280-26-052539/form8-kxexhibit991q1fy2027.htm), [Amended exhibit](https://ir.digitalturbine.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001628280-26-053445/form8-kaxexhibit991q1fy2027.htm).\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n\nThe supplied adjusted series places the 2026-09-11 close at $11.81, 17.9% below its $14.39 trailing-year high, with a three-month price increase of 21.0%. The 14-period relative strength index (RSI) is 58.8. These are measured price and momentum observations; moving-average values and trading-volume data are unavailable, so neither distance above a rising average nor broader participation can be established.\n\nThe $9.50 threshold remains the research invalidation level published on 2026-09-05. The available snapshots do not independently verify the earlier description of a shelf there. A weekly close above the reference high would complete the defined price case; a weekly close below the published threshold would end it.\n\nPositioning evidence is limited. The 2026-09-08 filing discloses executive awards granted on 2026-09-02, divided equally by incentive value between performance-based and time-based restricted stock units. These are compensation grants, not evidence of insider market sales. The available retail-coverage sample is too small to support a crowding claim. [Compensation filing](https://content.equisolve.net/sec/0001628280-26-060913/apps-20260901.htm).\n\n## Catalyst Calendar (next 30 days)\n\n- **2026-09-13 through 2026-10-13:** No company-confirmed event appears on the investor calendar checked on 2026-09-13. That establishes an unannounced calendar, not the absence of possible news. [Company calendar](https://ir.digitalturbine.com/news-events/ir-calendar).\n- **~2026-11-03, estimated:** A third-party calendar lists the next earnings release on this date; Digital Turbine has not confirmed it. The report would test whether the fiscal 2027 guidance retained in the 2026-08-05 amendment still holds. [Third-party calendar](https://wallstreetbuys.com/stocks/apps.us), [Company calendar](https://ir.digitalturbine.com/news-events/ir-calendar).\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nFailure of the post-results recovery would be recorded by a weekly close below $9.50, the research threshold published on 2026-09-05. Separately, a reduction in the fiscal 2027 revenue guidance of $650–670 million would invalidate the operating premise. A weekly close above the $14.39 reference high reported in the 2026-09-11 price series would complete the defined re-rating leg.\n\nThe evidence supports medium conviction: reported segment growth and the September price recovery support the case, while the 2026-06-30 debt figures and the unconfirmed earnings calendar constrain it. This is a forecast judgment, not a measured historical success rate.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n\nThis remains a single-company setup as of 2026-09-13. No peer-return series or correlation estimate is available, so the 2026-09-11 three-month gain cannot be attributed to a broader advertising or artificial-intelligence rotation. The September compensation filing uses the S&P Software & Services Select Industry Index for relative shareholder-return measurement; that contractual benchmark does not demonstrate that APPS trades in step with the index. [2026-09-08 filing](https://content.equisolve.net/sec/0001628280-26-060913/apps-20260901.htm).", "first_seen": "2026-09-03", "last_analyzed": "2026-09-13T12:16:31+00:00", "last_synthesized": "2026-09-13", "last_update_source": "watchlist_research", "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL." }