{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "ARDT",
  "name": "Ardent Health, Inc.",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ARDT/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ARDT.json",
  "status": "DORMANT",
  "current_conviction": "MEDIUM",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a4",
    "n": 4
  },
  "current_thesis": "Ardent Health's cost-led hospital turnaround is running ahead of plan, with 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance raised to $500–$535 million and Guggenheim and Stephens targets at $21; the 2027 outlook due with year-end results settles whether savings outrun Medicaid and exchange pressure.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close below $13.00, the area of the $12.99 close on 2026-11-04 before the third-quarter report, which would erase the post-report gain. A 2026 adjusted EBITDA result under the $500 million low end, or a 2027 outlook below about $500 million, would also end the case.",
  "catalyst_date": null,
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [
    "managed-care-health-services"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "caveats": [],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "Ardent Health, Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001756655/000162828026070163/ardt-q326x8xkxex991.htm",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Ardent Health at 2026 UBS Global Healthcare Conference: margin push",
      "url": "https://ph.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/ardent-health-at-2026-ubs-global-healthcare-conference-margin-push-93CH-2690215",
      "date": "2026-11-11"
    },
    {
      "title": "Ardent Health (ARDT) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript",
      "url": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/11/05/ardent-health-ardt-q3-2026-earnings-call-transcript/",
      "date": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "title": "Ardent Health (NYSE:ARDT) Stock Price Target Raised at Stephens",
      "url": "https://www.dailypolitical.com/2026/11/07/ardent-health-nyseardt-stock-price-target-raised-at-stephens.html",
      "date": "2026-11-07"
    },
    {
      "title": "Ardent Health (NYSE:ARDT) Releases Earnings Results, Beats Estimates By $0.08 EPS",
      "url": "https://www.dailypolitical.com/2026/11/04/ardent-health-nyseardt-releases-earnings-results-beats-estimates-by-0-08-eps.html",
      "date": "2026-11-04"
    },
    {
      "title": "Ardent Health Q3 2026: Operational Gains Meet Legal Headwinds",
      "url": "https://www.panabee.com/news/ardent-health-partners-earnings-q3-2026",
      "date": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $1,624.9 million, up 3.1%, and adjusted EBITDA was $137.7 million against $45.3 million a year earlier.",
      "source": "Ardent Health Q3 2026 8-K, Exhibit 99.1",
      "as_of": "2026-11-04"
    },
    {
      "claim": "2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance moved to $500–$535 million from $485–$535 million; revenue guidance stayed at $6.4–$6.7 billion.",
      "source": "Ardent Health Q3 2026 8-K, Exhibit 99.1",
      "as_of": "2026-11-04"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Guggenheim raised its Ardent Health price target to $21 from $14 and kept a Buy rating.",
      "source": "fiscal.ai, 2026-11-11",
      "as_of": "2026-11-11"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Stephens raised its price target to $21 from $13 (Overweight) and RBC Capital Markets to $18 from $13 (Outperform).",
      "source": "Benzinga analyst headlines",
      "as_of": "2026-11-06"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Management put the 2027 adjusted EBITDA starting point closer to $500 million and sized Medicaid work requirements at roughly $35 million.",
      "source": "2026 UBS Global Healthcare Conference remarks",
      "as_of": "2026-11-10"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Ardent is 85% contracted for 2027 and 75% for 2028, with 2027 commercial rate increases expected in the low double digits.",
      "source": "2026 UBS Global Healthcare Conference remarks",
      "as_of": "2026-11-10"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Salaries and benefits were 39.9% of revenue, down from 42.9%; contract labor spending fell 45%; exchange admissions fell 7% year over year.",
      "source": "Q3 2026 8-K and 2026-11-05 earnings call",
      "as_of": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Cash was $766 million, total debt about $1.1 billion and net leverage 0.8 times; 1.0 million shares were repurchased for $11 million in Q3.",
      "source": "Ardent Health Q3 2026 8-K, Exhibit 99.1",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [],
  "frame": null,
  "filed_numbers": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-13",
    "sector": "Healthcare",
    "financials": {
      "status": "ok",
      "reason": null,
      "close_date": "2026-11-13",
      "latest_quarter": "2026-09-30",
      "figures": {
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              "value_musd": 1645.3,
              "yoy_pct": 11.9
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        },
        "gross_margin": {
          "status": "not reported"
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        "operating_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
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              "restated": null,
              "pct": 5
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              "pct": 7.4
            }
          ]
        },
        "pretax_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 81
        },
        "net_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
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          "four_quarters_end": "2026-09-30",
          "value_musd": 44.5,
          "four_quarters_musd": 146.2
        },
        "operating_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 481.9
        },
        "capital_spending": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "free_cash_flow": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "diluted_share_change": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "base_end": "2025-09-30",
          "pct": 0.3
        },
        "cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 766.2
        },
        "debt": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 1098.5
        },
        "net_cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": -332.2
        },
        "deferred_revenue": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "backlog": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "receivables": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 661.8
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        "inventory": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 110.1
        },
        "equity": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 1396.2
        },
        "market_value": {
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          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-11-02",
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          "value_musd": 2508.7
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        "enterprise_value": {
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          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
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          "value_musd": 2840.9
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        "ev_sales": {
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          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-11-02",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-05",
          "multiple": 0.4
        },
        "ev_ebit": {
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          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-11-02",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-05",
          "multiple": 9.8
        },
        "pe": {
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          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
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          "basis_filed": "2026-11-05",
          "multiple": 17.2
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        "pb": {
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          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
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          "basis_filed": "2026-11-05",
          "multiple": 1.8
        },
        "fcf_yield": {
          "status": "not available"
        }
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    },
    "short_interest": {
      "status": "ok",
      "settlement": "2026-10-15",
      "published": "2026-10-26",
      "short_pct_of_outstanding": 2.66,
      "days_to_cover": 6.8,
      "change_pct": -19
    },
    "insiders": {
      "status": "ok",
      "as_of": "2026-11-15",
      "windows": [
        {
          "days": 90,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2026-08-18",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 0,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
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        {
          "days": 365,
          "status": "ok",
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  },
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\n\nArdent Health's cost-led hospital turnaround is running ahead of plan, and the evidence modestly favors the shares over the S&P 500 for the next three months. The 2027 outlook due with fourth-quarter results settles whether labor savings outrun Medicaid and exchange-coverage pressure.\n\nThe rating is Medium because the 2026-11-04 guidance raise is still drawing higher broker targets, while the share price already sits above the consensus target. Guggenheim raised its target to $21 from $14 with a Buy rating on 2026-11-11 (fiscal.ai), matching Stephens' $21 and above RBC Capital Markets' $18, both set on 2026-11-06 (Benzinga). The shares closed at $18.19 on 2026-11-11, up 65.1% over three months in adjusted daily closes.\n\nThe business case rests on costs. Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, with company adjustments) was $137.7 million against $45.3 million a year earlier, per the company's 8-K. Management raised the low end of 2026 guidance to $500 million from $485 million and kept the $535 million top.\n\nThe 2027 starting point is lower than the headline guidance. At the UBS Global Healthcare Conference on 2026-11-10, a finance executive put the 2027 starting point closer to $500 million of adjusted EBITDA, after removing an $11 million first-quarter unrealized gain and a few million dollars from the Kansas divestiture from the roughly $518 million midpoint (Investing.com, 2026-11-11). The $18.19 close sits above the $13.54 consensus target reported by Daily Political on 2026-11-07, so the price already reflects most of the cost program's success.\n\n## Bull Case\n\n- **Brokers keep raising targets.** Guggenheim moved to $21 from $14 on 2026-11-11 (fiscal.ai), after Stephens moved to $21 from $13 and RBC to $18 from $13 on 2026-11-06 (Benzinga). Two of the three targets sit above the 2026-11-11 close of $18.19.\n- **Earnings beat on both lines.** Third-quarter diluted earnings per share (EPS) were $0.31 against a $0.22 estimate, and revenue of $1.625 billion beat the $1.60 billion FactSet consensus (Benzinga and fiscal.ai, 2026-11-04). The company raised 2026 GAAP EPS guidance to $0.93–$1.18 from $0.78–$1.15 the same day.\n- **Labor costs are falling.** Salaries and benefits were 39.9% of revenue, down from 42.9% a year earlier, and contract labor spending fell 45% (2026-11-05 earnings call).\n- **Physician fee growth is slowing.** Professional fees grew 12.9% in the first quarter and 7.4% in the third (2026-11-05 call). Management expects 2027 growth above inflation but below the 2026 pace.\n- **The cost program runs for years.** The IMPACT program delivered at least $70 million of 2026 savings, with $20 million to $25 million carrying into 2027, and the CFO said on 2026-11-10 it will run at least three more years. Management's long-term goal is a mid-teens EBITDA margin against 11.5% to 12% today (UBS conference, 2026-11-10).\n- **Payer rates are largely set.** Ardent is 85% contracted for 2027 and 75% for 2028, and management expects 2027 commercial rate increases in the low double digits (UBS conference, 2026-11-10).\n- **The balance sheet gives room.** Cash was $766 million, total debt about $1.1 billion and net leverage 0.8 times at 2026-09-30 (8-K). The company repurchased 1.0 million shares for $11 million in the third quarter.\n\n## Bear Case\n\n- **The price is above the consensus.** The $18.19 close on 2026-11-11 exceeds the $13.54 consensus target, and the consensus rating was Hold, with 7 buy, 6 hold and 2 sell ratings (Daily Political, 2026-11-07). Bank of America's target is $12, raised from $10.50 on 2026-11-05 (fiscal.ai).\n- **The 2027 starting point is about $500 million.** Management's adjusted starting point of about $500 million on 2026-11-10 sits below the roughly $518 million 2026 midpoint, so 2027 growth is measured from a lower figure than the headline guidance.\n- **Medicaid adds a second $35 million hit.** Management estimated Medicaid work requirements at roughly $35 million, similar to the $35 million 2026 exchange impact, and expects exchange pressure to continue in 2027 (UBS conference, 2026-11-10). Exchange admissions fell 7% in the third quarter (2026-11-05 call).\n- **Surgical volumes are weak.** Adjusted admissions rose 2.9%, but admissions rose only 0.1% and surgeries fell 1.9%, with inpatient surgeries down 5.0% (8-K). The CFO tied weaker surgical demand to commercial and exchange patients with higher deductibles deferring care (2026-11-10).\n- **Revenue is not confirming the raise.** The $6.4 billion to $6.7 billion revenue range was unchanged on 2026-11-04, and management pointed to the lower end on the 2026-11-05 call.\n- **The year-ago comparison flatters growth.** Adjusted EBITDA was only $45.3 million in the third quarter of 2025 (8-K). Panabee's filing summary ties that quarter to a $43 million revenue adjustment for receivable collectability.\n- **Legal matters are open.** Panabee's summary of company filings describes an SEC inquiry into 2025 revenue recognition, a securities class action and a $40 million liability settlement with a $34 million insurance recovery asset that carriers dispute.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n\nThe shares closed at $12.99 on 2026-11-04, the session the third-quarter results were released, then at $15.90 on 2026-11-05 and $17.30 on 2026-11-06. They set a 52-week intraday high of $18.57 on 2026-11-09 and closed at $18.19 on 2026-11-11, 2.0% below that high. The 52-week closing low is $7.83 on 2026-06-03.\n\nAs of the 2026-11-11 close, the 50-day moving average was $11.87 and the 200-day moving average $10.26 in adjusted daily closes, so the price sits far above both. The shares held between $17.30 and $18.19 at the close over the four sessions to 2026-11-11, after the UBS conference remarks on 2026-11-10.\n\nThe 2026-11-04 close of $12.99 marks where the shares traded before the report; a close back under that area would erase the whole post-report gain. The only insider entries in SEC Form 4 filings since September are shares withheld for tax by three officers at $10.54 on 2026-09-25. The next quarterly report is not expected until about March 2027, which leaves broker revisions and the Kansas transfer as the nearer news.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **~2026-12-31 (est.):** Expected closing of the Topeka, Kansas hospital transfer to Surgery Partners. Management expects an 11 times EBITDA price and a 0.40 percentage point margin benefit; closing shows whether portfolio pruning delivers as described.\n- **~2027-03-01 (est.):** Fourth-quarter 2026 report and 2027 guidance. The 2027 outlook against the roughly $500 million starting point management cited shows whether cost savings exceed Medicaid and exchange-coverage pressure.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close below $13.00, the area of the $12.99 close on 2026-11-04 before the third-quarter report, which would erase the post-report gain. A 2026 adjusted EBITDA result under the $500 million low end, or a 2027 outlook below about $500 million, would also end the case.\n\nThe risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:\n\n- Medicaid work requirements and exchange-plan attrition reduce 2027 paying volumes faster than cost savings offset them. Confirmed by: A 2027 adjusted EBITDA outlook below about $500 million, or exchange admissions falling by more than the 7% reported for Q3 2026.\n- Professional fee growth accelerates again and absorbs labor savings. Confirmed by: Quarterly professional fee growth above the 7.4% reported for Q3 2026.\n- Weak surgical and commercial volumes keep revenue at the low end of guidance. Confirmed by: 2026 revenue under the $6.4 billion low end, or another year-over-year fall in total surgeries at the fourth-quarter report.\n- The share price has run ahead of the consensus target and brokers turn cautious on valuation. Confirmed by: Downgrades or target cuts citing valuation, pulling the consensus target further below the share price.\n- Open legal matters described in filing summaries produce a charge or restatement. Confirmed by: An adverse SEC outcome, or a write-off of the $34 million disputed insurance recovery asset.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n\nArdent trades with US hospital operators that share its exposure to Medicaid eligibility rules and Affordable Care Act exchange enrollment; a policy change to Medicaid or exchange funding would hit the group and Ardent together. Surgery Partners is the buyer of Ardent's Topeka, Kansas hospital, which management called a one-off divestiture on 2026-11-10, and it shares Ardent's exposure to commercial surgical volumes. Ardent's rise since the 2026-11-04 report rests on its own cost results and guidance, so the shares can move apart from the group on company news.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-10",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-12T16:34:42+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-12",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-12",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}