{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "ARQQ",
  "name": "Arqit Quantum Inc.",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ARQQ/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ARQQ.json",
  "status": "DORMANT",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a7",
    "n": 7
  },
  "current_thesis": "Arqit Quantum is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: preliminary fiscal 2026 revenue of about $1 million missed the $1.2 million expected after a Middle East contract stopped. December 2026 full results show whether NATO work and $51 million of cash restart growth.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close above $18.93, which would put the shares back above their 50-day average and show them leading the S&P 500 again. Full-year revenue above the $1,000,000 top of the preliminary range would also show the case failing.",
  "catalyst_date": null,
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [
    "cybersecurity",
    "quantum-computing"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "caveats": [],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "Arqit Quantum Inc. Announces Select Preliminary Financial Results for the Second Half and Full Fiscal Year 2026",
      "url": "https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/10/08/3377280/0/en/index.html",
      "date": "2026-10-08"
    },
    {
      "title": "Arqit Announces Preliminary Fiscal 2026 Financial Results",
      "url": "https://thequantuminsider.com/2026/10/09/arqit-preliminary-fiscal-2026-revenue-1-million/",
      "date": "2026-10-09"
    },
    {
      "title": "Arqit Quantum H1 earnings call highlights",
      "url": "https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/arqit-quantum-h1-earnings-call-highlights",
      "date": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Preliminary fiscal 2026 revenue of $975,000 to $1,000,000, against $530,000 in fiscal 2025",
      "source": "Arqit Form 6-K exhibit 99.1, 2026-10-08",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Second-half fiscal 2026 revenue of $355,000 to $380,000, against $463,000 a year earlier and $623,000 in the first half",
      "source": "Arqit Form 6-K exhibit 99.1, 2026-10-08",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Arqit stopped recognising revenue under a material contract with a Middle East customer affected by geopolitical events",
      "source": "Arqit Form 6-K exhibit 99.1, 2026-10-08",
      "as_of": "2026-10-08"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Cash and cash equivalents of about $51 million; preliminary and not reviewed by the independent accounting firm",
      "source": "Arqit Form 6-K exhibit 99.1, 2026-10-08",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Arqit signed, within a winning consortium, a one-year NATO secure networking contract with two annual renewal options; value not disclosed",
      "source": "Arqit Form 6-K exhibit 99.1, 2026-10-08",
      "as_of": "2026-10-06"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Operating cash outflow of $25.7 million for the half-year, with about $18 million raised through at-the-market share sales",
      "source": "First-half fiscal 2026 operating review, Form 6-K exhibit 99.3",
      "as_of": "2026-03-31"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Chief executive Andrew Leaver sold 2,573 shares at $16.40 on the open market",
      "source": "SEC Form 4, filed 2026-10-15",
      "as_of": "2026-10-13"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Closed at $14.86, below the 50-day average of $18.82 and the 200-day average of $17.74; down 39.0% over three months",
      "source": "Adjusted daily closes",
      "as_of": "2026-11-12"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [],
  "frame": null,
  "filed_numbers": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-13",
    "sector": "Technology",
    "financials": {
      "status": "not available",
      "reason": "no quarterly report in US GAAP with the SEC (a foreign filer reports on Form 20-F or 40-F)",
      "close_date": "2026-11-13",
      "latest_quarter": null,
      "figures": {}
    },
    "short_interest": {
      "status": "ok",
      "settlement": "2026-10-15",
      "published": "2026-10-26",
      "short_pct_of_outstanding": null,
      "days_to_cover": 7.2,
      "change_pct": 0.9
    },
    "insiders": {
      "status": "ok",
      "as_of": "2026-11-15",
      "windows": [
        {
          "days": 90,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2026-08-18",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 369272.5,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        },
        {
          "days": 365,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2025-11-16",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 2877684.63,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\n\nArqit Quantum is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. Preliminary fiscal 2026 revenue of $975,000 to $1,000,000 missed the roughly $1.2 million that existing contracts were expected to produce, after a Middle East customer's contract stopped producing revenue. The full-year results, which the company says will come in December 2026, show whether a NATO contract and about $51 million of cash restart growth.\n\nThe company published the preliminary figures on 2026-10-08 in a Form 6-K (exhibit 99.1). They are unaudited, and the company's independent accounting firm has not reviewed them.\n\nThe shares closed at $14.86 on 2026-11-12. That is 39.0% lower than three months earlier, when the close was $24.36 on 2026-08-14. A sharp rebound from $12.28 on 2026-11-05 to $16.86 on 2026-11-09 has since faded over three sessions. No company release in that window explains the rebound.\n\n## Bull Case\n- **A NATO contract is new revenue.** On 2026-10-06 Arqit signed, within a winning consortium, to provide secure networking services to NATO. The contract runs one year with two annual renewal options, and the value was not disclosed (Form 6-K, 2026-10-08).\n- **Sirius links Arqit to defence work.** Arqit announced a strategic investment in Sirius Computer on 2026-10-20 to develop quantum-safe defence communications. Terms were not disclosed.\n- **Cash was about $51 million.** The preliminary figure is for 2026-09-30 (Form 6-K, 2026-10-08).\n- **Contract wins continued.** Arqit signed seven new contracts in fiscal 2026, including three for its Encryption Intelligence product in the second half (Form 6-K, 2026-10-08).\n- **Full-year revenue still grew.** Preliminary fiscal 2026 revenue of $975,000 to $1,000,000 compares with $530,000 in fiscal 2025.\n\n## Bear Case\n- **Second-half revenue fell.** Second-half revenue of $355,000 to $380,000 is below the $463,000 of the second half of fiscal 2025 and the $623,000 of the first half of fiscal 2026 (Form 6-K, 2026-10-08).\n- **One contract carried too much weight.** Arqit stopped recognising revenue under a material contract with a Middle East customer affected by geopolitical events (Form 6-K, 2026-10-08).\n- **Cash burn dwarfs revenue.** Operating cash outflow was $25.7 million for the half-year to 2026-03-31, against $623,000 of revenue (first-half fiscal 2026 operating review).\n- **Share sales fund the business.** The company raised about $18 million through at-the-market sales in that half. A programme set up in January 2026 permits sales of up to $125 million.\n- **Executives sold shares.** SEC Form 4 filings show chief executive Andrew Leaver sold 2,573 shares at $16.40 on 2026-10-13. On 2026-10-06 the chief operating officer, the US general manager and a director also sold small blocks at $24.19.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n\nThe shares closed at $14.86 on 2026-11-12. That is below both the 50-day average of $18.82 and the 200-day average of $17.74, calculated from adjusted daily closes.\n\nThe 52-week closing low is $11.78, set on 2026-03-27. The latest close is 54.6% below the 52-week intraday high of $32.72, set on 2025-11-12.\n\nThe close of $12.28 on 2026-11-05 was followed by $15.96 on 2026-11-06 and $16.86 on 2026-11-09. Closes then slipped to $15.74 on 2026-11-10, $15.59 on 2026-11-11 and $14.86 on 2026-11-12. The shares have not recovered the 50-day average.\n\nCrowding evidence consists of executive selling in October, an at-the-market programme that allows new shares to be sold into the market, and a results report expected in December.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **~2026-12-09 (est.):** Full fiscal 2026 results and conference call; the company has said only 'December 2026'. Confirms the unaudited revenue and cash figures, shows second-half cash burn and share sales, and states whether the Middle East contract is written off.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close above $18.93, which would put the shares back above their 50-day average and show them leading the S&P 500 again. Full-year revenue above the $1,000,000 top of the preliminary range would also show the case failing.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n\nArqit's revenue is too small for its shares to follow earnings. The price has tracked sentiment toward quantum-safe security and defence-linked technology. The NATO contract and the Sirius stake tie the company to European defence communications spending. The Middle East contract loss shows its exposure to regional geopolitical events.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-10",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-13T00:53:49+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-13",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-13",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}