{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "ASAN",
  "name": "Asana, Inc.",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ASAN/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ASAN.json",
  "status": "DORMANT",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a4",
    "n": 4
  },
  "current_thesis": "Asana's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 because guided growth slows to 8–9% and net revenue retention is 97%. The 1 December 2026 fiscal third-quarter report settles whether AI products reverse that.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close above $12.02, the 2026-10-23 close that capped the October rally, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; fiscal third-quarter revenue above the $219 million top of the guide with the full-year range raised above $863.5 million would also show the call wrong.",
  "catalyst_date": "2026-12-01",
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [
    "ai-enterprise-software"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "caveats": [],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "Asana, Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001477720/000162828026072757/asan-20261106.htm",
      "date": "2026-11-10"
    },
    {
      "title": "MarketBeat",
      "url": "https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/price-asana-nyse-asan-stock-falls-5-time-to-sell-2026-11-09/",
      "date": "2026-11-09"
    },
    {
      "title": "Asana to Announce Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2027 Financial Results on Tuesday, December 1, 2026",
      "url": "https://investors.asana.com/news-releases/news-release-details/asana-announce-third-quarter-fiscal-year-2027-financial-results",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Asana Announces Second Quarter Fiscal 2027 Results",
      "url": "https://finviz.com/news/388877/asana-announces-second-quarter-fiscal-2027-results",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "MarketBeat",
      "url": "https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/transcript-asana-q2-earnings-call-highlights-2026-09-03/",
      "date": "2026-09-03"
    },
    {
      "title": "Asana (ASAN) Stock Forecast & Analyst Price Targets",
      "url": "https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/asan/forecast/",
      "date": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Asana will report fiscal Q3 2027 results on Tuesday, December 1, 2026, after the US market close, with a webcast at 1:30 p.m. Pacific.",
      "source": "Asana press release, investors.asana.com",
      "as_of": "2026-11-02"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Fiscal Q2 2027 revenue was $216.4 million, up 10% year over year and above the high end of guidance.",
      "source": "Asana Q2 FY27 earnings release",
      "as_of": "2026-09-03"
    },
    {
      "claim": "AI products (AI Studio, AI Teammates) were 25% of net new ARR in fiscal Q2, up from 17% the prior quarter.",
      "source": "Asana Q2 FY27 earnings call",
      "as_of": "2026-09-03"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Net revenue retention was 97% overall and 98% for customers spending $100,000 or more a year.",
      "source": "Asana Q2 FY27 earnings call",
      "as_of": "2026-09-03"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Fiscal Q3 revenue guided to $217–219 million (8–9% growth); full-year guide raised to $858.5–863.5 million.",
      "source": "Asana Q2 FY27 earnings release",
      "as_of": "2026-09-03"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Asana entered a $150 million senior secured revolving credit facility maturing 2031-11-09, undrawn at signing, and repaid its 2022 facility with cash on hand on 2026-11-06.",
      "source": "Asana Form 8-K filed 2026-11-10 (SEC EDGAR)",
      "as_of": "2026-11-10"
    },
    {
      "claim": "MarketBeat's analyst consensus is Hold (4 Buy, 7 Hold, 3 Sell) with an average price target of $9.95.",
      "source": "MarketBeat",
      "as_of": "2026-11-09"
    },
    {
      "claim": "CEO Dan Rogers sold 19,676 shares at $11.52 on 2026-10-22 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan.",
      "source": "SEC Form 4 filed 2026-10-23",
      "as_of": "2026-10-22"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [],
  "frame": null,
  "filed_numbers": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-13",
    "sector": "Technology",
    "financials": {
      "status": "ok",
      "reason": null,
      "close_date": "2026-11-13",
      "latest_quarter": "2026-07-31",
      "figures": {
        "revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
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              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 216.4,
              "yoy_pct": 9.9
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-04-30",
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              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 205.1,
              "yoy_pct": 9.5
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              "yoy_pct": 9.2
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              "end": "2025-10-31",
              "filed": "2025-12-02",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 201,
              "yoy_pct": 9.3
            },
            {
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              "filed": "2025-09-03",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 196.9,
              "yoy_pct": 9.9
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-04-30",
              "filed": "2025-06-03",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 187.3,
              "yoy_pct": 8.6
            }
          ]
        },
        "gross_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-07-31",
              "filed": "2026-09-03",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 86
            },
            {
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              "restated": null,
              "pct": 87.6
            },
            {
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              "restated": null,
              "pct": 87.8
            },
            {
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              "restated": null,
              "pct": 88.9
            },
            {
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              "restated": null,
              "pct": 89.7
            },
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              "filed": "2025-06-03",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 89.7
            }
          ]
        },
        "operating_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-07-31",
              "filed": "2026-09-03",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -19
            },
            {
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              "filed": "2026-05-28",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -7.4
            },
            {
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              "filed": "2026-03-13",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -16.5
            },
            {
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              "filed": "2025-12-02",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -34.8
            },
            {
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              "filed": "2025-09-03",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -25.1
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-04-30",
              "filed": "2025-06-03",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -23.4
            }
          ]
        },
        "pretax_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-07-31",
          "filed": "2026-09-03",
          "value_musd": -39.9
        },
        "net_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-07-31",
          "filed": "2026-09-03",
          "four_quarters_end": "2026-07-31",
          "value_musd": -39.2,
          "four_quarters_musd": -154.2
        },
        "operating_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-07-31",
          "filed": "2026-09-03",
          "first_end": "2025-10-31",
          "value_musd": 130.1
        },
        "capital_spending": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-07-31",
          "filed": "2026-09-03",
          "first_end": "2025-10-31",
          "value_musd": 6.2
        },
        "free_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-07-31",
          "filed": "2026-09-03",
          "first_end": "2025-10-31",
          "value_musd": 123.9
        },
        "diluted_share_change": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-07-31",
          "filed": "2026-09-03",
          "base_end": "2025-07-31",
          "pct": -2.3
        },
        "cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-07-31",
          "filed": "2026-09-03",
          "value_musd": 219.6
        },
        "debt": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2025-10-31",
          "filed": "2025-12-02",
          "value_musd": 35.6,
          "composition": "secured debt"
        },
        "net_cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2025-10-31",
          "filed": "2025-12-02",
          "value_musd": 147.9
        },
        "deferred_revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-07-31",
          "filed": "2026-09-03",
          "value_musd": 350.7,
          "yoy_pct": 11.8
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        "backlog": {
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          "filed": "2026-09-03",
          "value_musd": 522,
          "yoy_pct": 2.9
        },
        "receivables": {
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          "end": "2026-07-31",
          "filed": "2026-09-03",
          "value_musd": 78.6
        },
        "inventory": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "equity": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-07-31",
          "filed": "2026-09-03",
          "value_musd": 104.3
        },
        "market_value": {
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          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-07-31",
          "basis_filed": "2026-09-03",
          "value_musd": 2241.2
        },
        "enterprise_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-07-31",
          "basis_filed": "2026-09-03",
          "value_musd": 2093.3
        },
        "ev_sales": {
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          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-07-31",
          "basis_filed": "2026-09-03",
          "multiple": 2.5
        },
        "ev_ebit": {
          "status": "not meaningful"
        },
        "pe": {
          "status": "not meaningful"
        },
        "pb": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-07-31",
          "basis_filed": "2026-09-03",
          "multiple": 21.5
        },
        "fcf_yield": {
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          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-07-31",
          "basis_filed": "2026-09-03",
          "pct": 5.5
        }
      }
    },
    "short_interest": {
      "status": "ok",
      "settlement": "2026-10-15",
      "published": "2026-10-26",
      "short_pct_of_outstanding": 8.2,
      "days_to_cover": 4,
      "change_pct": -3.9
    },
    "insiders": {
      "status": "ok",
      "as_of": "2026-11-15",
      "windows": [
        {
          "days": 90,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2026-08-18",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 5239021.63,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        },
        {
          "days": 365,
          "status": "ok",
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          "sold_usd": 26489540.1,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\n\nAsana's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it over the next three months. Management guides growth down to 8–9%, and existing customers are spending less than a year ago. The fiscal third-quarter report on 2026-12-01, after the US market close, settles it: the AI products have to lift revenue above the $217–219 million guide and push net revenue retention back toward 100%.\n\nThe shares have already given back the October rally. They closed at $11.64 on 2026-11-04 and fell for four straight sessions to $9.59 on 2026-11-10, then closed at $9.81 on 2026-11-11, per adjusted daily closes. MarketBeat reported a drop of about 5% on 2026-11-09 and found no company news behind it.\n\nThe price now reflects the analyst consensus, not a recovery. The $9.81 close on 2026-11-11 sits just under MarketBeat's $9.95 average target (2026-11-09), and the 3-month change is −0.6%. That consensus is a Hold, which prices guided 8–9% growth with no AI acceleration. A beat-and-raise on 2026-12-01 is the event that would move the shares above it.\n\nThe only new company filing is a refinancing. Asana's 8-K of 2026-11-10 reports a new $150 million revolving credit facility with Wells Fargo as agent, effective 2026-11-09 and undrawn at signing. The company repaid and ended its 2022 Silicon Valley Bank facility on 2026-11-06 with cash on hand. The revenue case is unchanged since the 2026-09-03 report.\n\n## Bull Case\n\n- **AI products are taking new revenue.** AI Studio and AI Teammates made up 25% of net new annual recurring revenue (ARR) in the fiscal second quarter, up from 17% in the first quarter, per the 2026-09-03 earnings call.\n- **Revenue beat and guidance rose.** Second-quarter revenue of $216.4 million, up 10%, beat the top of guidance on 2026-09-03. The company raised its full-year revenue range to $858.5–863.5 million.\n- **Operating margin is widening.** The non-GAAP operating margin (excluding stock compensation and other items) reached 10% in the second quarter, up 300 basis points year over year, per the 2026-09-03 release.\n- **Agentic bundle gets its first full quarter.** The Agentic Work Management bundle puts AI Teammates, AI Studio and Asana Dash on all paid plans. It launched in the fiscal third quarter that ended 2026-10-31, so the 2026-12-01 report is the first to cover a full quarter of it.\n- **Credit line renewed on new terms.** The 2026-11-10 8-K shows a $150 million revolver maturing 2031-11-09, priced at the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) plus 2.00% and undrawn at signing. The old facility was repaid from cash on 2026-11-06.\n- **Price sits below the bullish targets.** BofA Securities raised its target to $12.75 with a Buy rating on 2026-10-23. Citi's target is $11 with a Buy rating (2026-10-07).\n\n## Bear Case\n\n- **Growth is guided lower.** Fiscal third-quarter guidance of $217–219 million implies 8–9% growth, down from 10% in the second quarter, per the 2026-09-03 release. The StackAI acquisition added 50 basis points to second-quarter growth.\n- **Existing customers are spending less.** Net revenue retention was 97% overall and 98% for customers spending at least $100,000 a year in the second quarter, per the 2026-09-03 call.\n- **AI is squeezing gross margin.** Gross margin fell to 87% in the second quarter, down 120 basis points from the first quarter. The company blamed higher AI infrastructure costs and product mix.\n- **Analysts lean neutral to negative.** MarketBeat counted 4 Buy, 7 Hold and 3 Sell ratings on 2026-11-09, with a $9.95 average target. Morgan Stanley kept a Sell rating with a $7 target on 2026-09-18, per stockanalysis.com.\n- **Executives sold into the rally.** SEC Form 4 filings show CEO Dan Rogers sold 18,021 shares at $10.04 on 2026-10-09 and 19,676 at $11.52 on 2026-10-22, both under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. CFO Aziz Megji sold 38,668 shares at an average $9.50 from 2026-09-21 to 2026-09-23.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n\nThe October rally began from an $8.62 close on 2026-10-02 and peaked at the 2026-10-23 close, per adjusted daily closes. It has since unwound to $9.81 on 2026-11-11. That close is below the 50-day moving average of $9.94 and above the 200-day moving average of $8.09, both as of 2026-11-11.\n\nThe shares are nearly flat over three months: −0.6% against the $9.87 reference close of 2026-08-13. They sit 35.8% below the 52-week intraday high of $15.28 set on 2025-12-09. The 52-week closing low is $5.46, set on 2026-04-10.\n\nThe case turns on two levels. The 50-day moving average at $9.94 is the nearest overhead line. The 2026-10-02 close of $8.62 is where the October rally started. A close back under it would erase that move entirely and leave the shares trading on the 2026-12-01 report alone.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **2026-12-01:** Fiscal Q3 2027 earnings report, after the US market close. Shows whether revenue clears the $217–219 million guide, whether net revenue retention rises above 97%, and whether AI's share of net new ARR keeps climbing in the first full quarter of the Agentic Work Management bundle.\n- **2026-12-01:** Updated fiscal 2027 full-year revenue guidance. A raise above the $858.5–863.5 million range would show AI products lifting growth; a hold or a cut would leave the 8–9% growth path intact.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close above $12.02, the 2026-10-23 close that capped the October rally, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; fiscal third-quarter revenue above the $219 million top of the guide with the full-year range raised above $863.5 million would also show the call wrong.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n\nAsana's large moves have mostly come without company news. Investing.com and StreetInsider found no company catalyst behind the 2026-10-20 jump, and MarketBeat found none behind the drop of about 5% on 2026-11-09. The shares trade partly with mid-cap application software peers such as Appian, Five9 and Sprout Social, so a rally or sell-off across software moves Asana regardless of its own results. Revenue depends on enterprise seat counts, which tie the company to white-collar hiring and IT budgets more than to AI infrastructure spending.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-10",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-12T03:59:09+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-12",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-12",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}