{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "ASO",
  "name": "Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc.",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ASO/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ASO.json",
  "status": "DORMANT",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a7",
    "n": 7
  },
  "current_thesis": "Academy Sports and Outdoors shares, up 42.1% in three months to $69.32, are more likely to lag the S&P 500 while comparable sales are negative and EPS guidance leans on one-time tariff refunds; the ~8 December 2026 report settles it.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close above $76.25, which would put the shares well over the 52-week high of $71.29 and show them leading the S&P 500. Third-quarter comparable sales above the 2.0% top of full-year guidance would also show the shares leading.",
  "catalyst_date": "2026-11-27",
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [
    "consumer-discretionary-rotation"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "caveats": [],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "Academy Sports and Outdoors (NASDAQ:ASO) Coverage Initiated by Analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald",
      "url": "https://www.dailypolitical.com/2026/11/10/academy-sports-and-outdoors-nasdaqaso-coverage-initiated-by-analysts-at-cantor-fitzgerald.html",
      "date": "2026-11-10"
    },
    {
      "title": "Cantor Fitzgerald initiates Academy Sports stock with overweight rating",
      "url": "https://ng.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/cantor-fitzgerald-initiates-academy-sports-stock-with-overweight-rating-93CH-2796718",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. (ASO)",
      "url": "https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/aso/ratings/",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "ASO Maintained by Evercore ISI Group -- Price Target Raised to $60",
      "url": "https://www.gurufocus.com/news/9131781/aso-maintained-by-evercore-isi-group-price-target-raised-to-60",
      "date": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Q2 FY2026 net sales $1,647.3M, up 3.0%; comparable sales down 0.4%; eCommerce sales up 12.8%; adjusted EPS $2.31, up 19.1%.",
      "source": "Academy Q2 FY2026 earnings release (8-K exhibit 99.1)",
      "as_of": "2026-09-09"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Gross margin rate 40.4% vs 36.0% a year earlier; 510 bp came from one-time IEEPA tariff refunds, and merchandise margin fell 90 bp.",
      "source": "Academy Q2 FY2026 Form 10-Q",
      "as_of": "2026-08-01"
    },
    {
      "claim": "FY2026 GAAP EPS guidance raised to $6.05–$6.45 and adjusted EPS to $6.50–$6.90; comparable-sales guidance of flat to up 2.0% affirmed.",
      "source": "Academy Q2 FY2026 earnings release",
      "as_of": "2026-09-09"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Shares outstanding 62.0M vs 66.6M a year earlier; year-to-date buybacks of $182.1M.",
      "source": "Academy Q2 FY2026 earnings release",
      "as_of": "2026-08-01"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Cantor Fitzgerald initiated coverage with an Overweight rating and an $89 price target; it models adjusted EPS of $8.29 for fiscal 2028.",
      "source": "Investing.com; Daily Political (2026-11-10)",
      "as_of": "2026-11-10"
    },
    {
      "claim": "MarketBeat consensus 'Moderate Buy' with an average price target of $60.71 (1 Strong Buy, 7 Buy, 9 Hold).",
      "source": "MarketBeat via Daily Political",
      "as_of": "2026-11-10"
    },
    {
      "claim": "President Samuel Johnson sold 95,883 shares at an average $52.37 on 2026-09-14 to 2026-09-15 after exercising 25,580 options at $26.99; director Brian Marley sold 10,432 shares at an average $53.25 on 2026-09-15.",
      "source": "SEC Form 4 filings filed 2026-09-16",
      "as_of": "2026-09-16"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Evercore ISI kept an In-Line rating and raised its price target to $60 from $55.",
      "source": "Benzinga analyst-rating report",
      "as_of": "2026-10-20"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [],
  "frame": null,
  "filed_numbers": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-13",
    "sector": "Consumer Cyclical",
    "financials": {
      "status": "ok",
      "reason": null,
      "close_date": "2026-11-13",
      "latest_quarter": "2026-08-01",
      "figures": {
        "revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
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              "end": "2026-08-01",
              "filed": "2026-09-09",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 1647.3,
              "yoy_pct": 3
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-05-02",
              "filed": "2026-06-10",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 1442,
              "yoy_pct": 6.7
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            {
              "end": "2026-01-31",
              "filed": "2026-03-17",
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              "value_musd": 1718.5,
              "yoy_pct": 2.5
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-11-01",
              "filed": "2025-12-09",
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              "value_musd": 1383.7,
              "yoy_pct": 3
            },
            {
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              "filed": "2025-09-02",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 1599.8,
              "yoy_pct": 3.3
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              "end": "2025-05-03",
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              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 1351.4,
              "yoy_pct": -0.9
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        },
        "gross_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-08-01",
              "filed": "2026-09-09",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 40.4
            },
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              "filed": "2026-06-10",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 33.2
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-01-31",
              "filed": "2026-03-17",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 33.6
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-11-01",
              "filed": "2025-12-09",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 35.7
            },
            {
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              "filed": "2025-09-02",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 36
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-05-03",
              "filed": "2025-06-10",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 34
            }
          ]
        },
        "operating_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-08-01",
              "filed": "2026-09-09",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 15
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-05-02",
              "filed": "2026-06-10",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 5.2
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-01-31",
              "filed": "2026-03-17",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 9.9
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-11-01",
              "filed": "2025-12-09",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 7.3
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-08-02",
              "filed": "2025-09-02",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 10.8
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-05-03",
              "filed": "2025-06-10",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 5.1
            }
          ]
        },
        "pretax_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-01",
          "filed": "2026-09-09",
          "value_musd": 178.4
        },
        "net_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-01",
          "filed": "2026-09-09",
          "four_quarters_end": "2026-08-01",
          "value_musd": 137.9,
          "four_quarters_musd": 395.9
        },
        "operating_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-01",
          "filed": "2026-09-09",
          "first_end": "2025-11-01",
          "value_musd": 547.8
        },
        "capital_spending": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-01",
          "filed": "2026-09-09",
          "first_end": "2025-11-01",
          "value_musd": 216.3
        },
        "free_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-01",
          "filed": "2026-09-09",
          "first_end": "2025-11-01",
          "value_musd": 331.4
        },
        "diluted_share_change": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-01",
          "filed": "2026-09-09",
          "base_end": "2025-08-02",
          "pct": -6.1
        },
        "cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-01",
          "filed": "2026-09-09",
          "value_musd": 298.2
        },
        "debt": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-01",
          "filed": "2026-09-09",
          "value_musd": 494.2,
          "composition": "non-current long-term debt plus current maturities"
        },
        "net_cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-01",
          "filed": "2026-09-09",
          "value_musd": -195.9
        },
        "deferred_revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-01",
          "filed": "2026-09-09",
          "value_musd": 85.4,
          "yoy_pct": 4.4
        },
        "backlog": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "receivables": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-01",
          "filed": "2026-09-09",
          "value_musd": 23
        },
        "inventory": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-01",
          "filed": "2026-09-09",
          "value_musd": 1657.4
        },
        "equity": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-01",
          "filed": "2026-09-09",
          "value_musd": 2178.4
        },
        "market_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-09-02",
          "basis_filed": "2026-09-09",
          "value_musd": 4162.1
        },
        "enterprise_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-09-02",
          "basis_filed": "2026-09-09",
          "value_musd": 4358.1
        },
        "ev_sales": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-09-02",
          "basis_filed": "2026-09-09",
          "multiple": 0.7
        },
        "ev_ebit": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-09-02",
          "basis_filed": "2026-09-09",
          "multiple": 7.4
        },
        "pe": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-09-02",
          "basis_filed": "2026-09-09",
          "multiple": 10.5
        },
        "pb": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-09-02",
          "basis_filed": "2026-09-09",
          "multiple": 1.9
        },
        "fcf_yield": {
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          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-09-02",
          "basis_filed": "2026-09-09",
          "pct": 8
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      }
    },
    "short_interest": {
      "status": "ok",
      "settlement": "2026-10-15",
      "published": "2026-10-26",
      "short_pct_of_outstanding": 15.2,
      "days_to_cover": 5.9,
      "change_pct": 7.7
    },
    "insiders": {
      "status": "ok",
      "as_of": "2026-11-15",
      "windows": [
        {
          "days": 90,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2026-08-18",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 5576899.45,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        },
        {
          "days": 365,
          "status": "ok",
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          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 7011187.89,
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      ]
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  },
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\n\nAcademy Sports and Outdoors shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months: they closed at $69.32 on 2026-11-11, up 42.1% in three months, while the last reported quarter showed comparable sales down 0.4% and an earnings guidance raise that leans on one-time tariff refunds and buybacks. The third-quarter report, expected around 2026-12-08, settles whether core demand supports the price.\n\nThe advance came with no new quarterly results. The last report is the 2026-09-09 release for the quarter ended 2026-08-01, and company news since then is limited to a HYROX North America partnership (2026-10-21) and holiday shopping initiatives (2026-11-09).\n\nWhat changed is the analyst side. Cantor Fitzgerald initiated coverage with an Overweight rating and an $89 price target on 2026-11-10, per Investing.com and Daily Political. Company news the same day shows Loop Capital downgraded the shares to Hold. MarketBeat's consensus target was $60.71 on 2026-11-10, below the last close.\n\nSecond-quarter business numbers: comparable sales fell 0.4%, adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rose 19.1% to $2.31, and the gross margin rate rose to 40.4% from 36.0%. The company's 10-Q attributes 510 basis points of that rate to a one-time refund of tariffs collected under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).\n\n## Bull Case\n\n- **Cantor sees much higher value.** Cantor Fitzgerald's $89 target (2026-11-10) rests on the pace of new store openings and value-focused positioning into the 2026 and 2027 holiday seasons, per Investing.com. Cantor models adjusted EPS of $8.29 for fiscal 2028.\n- **Guidance was raised on earnings.** On 2026-09-09 the company raised fiscal 2026 GAAP EPS guidance to $6.05–$6.45 and adjusted EPS guidance to $6.50–$6.90.\n- **Buybacks shrink the share count.** Shares outstanding fell to 62.0 million from 66.6 million a year earlier. Year-to-date repurchases reached $182.1 million, per the 2026-09-09 release.\n- **eCommerce and new stores are growing.** eCommerce sales rose 12.8% in the second quarter, and new stores posted mid-single-digit comparable sales. The company planned 11 openings in the third quarter.\n- **Lean inventory heading into the holidays.** Inventory was $1,657.4 million at 2026-08-01, up 4.4% in dollars but down 5.6% in units per store, which lowers the risk of holiday markdowns.\n\n## Bear Case\n\n- **Comparable sales are negative.** Same-store sales fell 0.4% in the second quarter. Full-year comparable-sales guidance of flat to up 2.0% was affirmed on 2026-09-09, not raised.\n- **The margin jump does not repeat.** The 10-Q describes the 510-basis-point tariff refund as one-time. Merchandise margin fell 90 basis points in the quarter.\n- **The price is above nearly every target.** StockAnalysis lists Jefferies at $67 (2026-09-29), Goldman Sachs at $63 (2026-09-16), Telsey Advisory at $63 (2026-09-10) and Evercore ISI at $60 (2026-10-20). Cantor's $89 is the exception, and MarketBeat's consensus target is $60.71 (2026-11-10).\n- **Loop Capital downgraded.** Company news on 2026-11-10 shows Loop Capital moved to Hold the same day Cantor initiated at Overweight, so the broker community is split near the highs.\n- **Insiders sold after the report.** SEC Form 4 filings show president Samuel Johnson exercised 25,580 options at $26.99 and sold 95,883 shares at an average $52.37 on 2026-09-14 to 2026-09-15. Director Brian Marley sold 10,432 shares at an average $53.25 on 2026-09-15.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n\nThe shares closed at $67.27 on 2026-11-06, then jumped to $71.18 on 2026-11-09, the session of the 52-week intraday high of $71.29. They closed at $70.39 on 2026-11-10 and $69.32 on 2026-11-11, 2.8% below that high.\n\nThe 50-day average is $55.04 and the 200-day average is $52.95, both as of the 2026-11-11 close. The shares sit about 26% above the first and 31% above the second, so the move has outrun the trend measures. The 3-month reference close was $48.93 on 2026-08-13, and the 52-week closing low was $41.73 on 2025-11-20.\n\nThe market has priced in the 2026-09-09 guidance raise and a bullish initiation, and the price sits above the consensus target of $60.71.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **~2026-11-24 (est.):** Announcement of the third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings call date. It fixes the report date. Last year the company announced the date on 2025-11-25, about two weeks before reporting on 2025-12-09.\n- **2026-11-27:** Black Friday opens the holiday shopping period in the fiscal fourth quarter. Holiday demand among lower-income shoppers feeds the guidance management gives with the December report.\n- **~2026-12-08 (est.):** Third-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings report. It is the first report since the one-time tariff refund. It shows whether comparable sales turn positive and whether the raised EPS guidance holds with the shares above most broker targets.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close above $76.25, which would put the shares well over the 52-week high of $71.29 and show them leading the S&P 500. Third-quarter comparable sales above the 2.0% top of full-year guidance would also show the shares leading.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n\nAcademy's shares respond to US discretionary spending, particularly among lower-income shoppers, as chief executive Steve Lawrence discussed on 2026-09-09. They also respond to tariff policy, since IEEPA refunds accounted for 510 basis points of second-quarter gross margin rate. The move from $48.93 on 2026-08-13 to $69.32 on 2026-11-11 came with no new quarterly results, so the December report is the next test that belongs to Academy alone.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-10",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-12T17:32:52+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-12",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-12",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}