{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "ASPN",
  "name": "Aspen Aerogels, Inc.",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ASPN/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ASPN.json",
  "status": "DORMANT",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a4",
    "n": 4
  },
  "current_thesis": "Aspen Aerogels is more likely to lag the S&P 500: fourth-quarter revenue is guided below the third quarter and a $150 million registration allows new shares, despite a rebound to $6.41. The fourth-quarter report settles it.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close above $7.18, 12% above the 2026-11-11 close of $6.41, would show the shares leading the S&P 500. Fourth-quarter revenue above the $75 million top of the guide would also show the shares leading.",
  "catalyst_date": null,
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [
    "ev-autonomous-mobility"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "caveats": [],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "ASPEN AEROGELS INC - Form 8-K - FY2026",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001145986/000117184326007142/exh_991.htm",
      "date": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "title": "Aspen Aerogels (ASPN) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript",
      "url": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/11/05/aspen-aerogels-aspn-q3-2026-earnings-call-transcript/",
      "date": "2026-11-05"
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $85.2 million versus a guide of $65 million–$80 million; adjusted EBITDA was $19.8 million versus a guide of $7 million–$15 million.",
      "source": "Aspen Aerogels Q3 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)",
      "as_of": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Third-quarter net loss was $10.4 million ($0.13 per share), including $15.1 million of East Providence incident costs and a $4.6 million loss on disposal of assets.",
      "source": "Aspen Aerogels Q3 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)",
      "as_of": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Third-quarter Thermal Barrier revenue was $45.3 million (prior year $48.7 million); Energy Industrial revenue was $39.9 million (prior year $24.3 million).",
      "source": "Aspen Aerogels Q3 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)",
      "as_of": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Fourth-quarter 2026 guide: revenue $60 million–$75 million, adjusted EBITDA $5 million–$13 million, net loss $8 million–$11 million, with $5 million–$10 million of East Providence costs expected.",
      "source": "Aspen Aerogels Q3 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)",
      "as_of": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash were $146.5 million at 2026-09-30; European Thermal Barrier revenue was a record $8.0 million in the third quarter.",
      "source": "Aspen Aerogels Q3 2026 results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Aspen filed a prospectus for a $150 million mixed-securities offering.",
      "source": "Company news, 2026-11-05",
      "as_of": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Wood River Capital, LLC reported an open-market sale of 12,280,426 shares at $4.73 on 2026-09-23.",
      "source": "SEC Form 4 filed 2026-09-24",
      "as_of": "2026-09-24"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [],
  "frame": null,
  "filed_numbers": {
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    "sector": "Industrials",
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              "yoy_pct": -37.8
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              "yoy_pct": -33.7
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        "gross_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
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              "pct": 24.1
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        "operating_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
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              "restated": null,
              "pct": -8.4
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              "pct": -57.7
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              "pct": -6.6
            }
          ]
        },
        "pretax_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": -9.8
        },
        "net_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "four_quarters_end": "2026-09-30",
          "value_musd": -10.4,
          "four_quarters_musd": -130.3
        },
        "operating_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 30.3
        },
        "capital_spending": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 10.4
        },
        "free_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 19.9
        },
        "diluted_share_change": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "base_end": "2025-09-30",
          "pct": 0.8
        },
        "cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 146
        },
        "debt": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 51.1,
          "composition": "long-term debt"
        },
        "net_cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 94.9
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        "deferred_revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 25.1,
          "yoy_pct": 2945
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        "backlog": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "receivables": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 62.2
        },
        "inventory": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
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          "value_musd": 29.3
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        "equity": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 184.4
        },
        "market_value": {
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          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-11-03",
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          "value_musd": 463.9
        },
        "enterprise_value": {
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          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-11-03",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 369
        },
        "ev_sales": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-11-03",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-05",
          "multiple": 1.7
        },
        "ev_ebit": {
          "status": "not meaningful"
        },
        "pe": {
          "status": "not meaningful"
        },
        "pb": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-11-03",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-05",
          "multiple": 2.5
        },
        "fcf_yield": {
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          "pct": 4.3
        }
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    },
    "short_interest": {
      "status": "ok",
      "settlement": "2026-10-15",
      "published": "2026-10-26",
      "short_pct_of_outstanding": 7.39,
      "days_to_cover": 7.6,
      "change_pct": 0.7
    },
    "insiders": {
      "status": "ok",
      "as_of": "2026-11-15",
      "windows": [
        {
          "days": 90,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2026-08-18",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 58086414.98,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        },
        {
          "days": 365,
          "status": "ok",
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  },
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\n\nAspen Aerogels is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months, even after its third-quarter beat and a rebound from $4.91 on 2026-11-06 to $6.41 on 2026-11-11. Fourth-quarter revenue is guided below the third quarter and a $150 million registration allows new shares. The fourth-quarter report in early 2027 settles whether revenue holds the recovery.\n\nOn 2026-11-05 the company reported third-quarter revenue of $85.2 million against its own guide of $65 million–$80 million. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (adjusted EBITDA) were $19.8 million against a guide of $7 million–$15 million (8-K Exhibit 99.1, 2026-11-05). The net loss was $10.4 million, wider than the $6 million–$9 million guide.\n\nThe shares closed at $6.11 on 2026-11-09, $5.72 on 2026-11-10 and $6.41 on 2026-11-11. No company news dated 2026-11-09 to 2026-11-11 explains the move. The 2026-11-11 close is above the $6.07 close of 2026-08-13, the three-month reference, and 20.9% below the 52-week intraday high of $8.10 set on 2026-08-06.\n\n## Bull Case\n- **Third quarter beat both guided ranges.** Revenue of $85.2 million was above the $80 million top of the guide, and adjusted EBITDA of $19.8 million was above the $15 million top (company release, 2026-11-05). Revenue also beat a $72.1 million analyst estimate, per Google Finance.\n- **Energy Industrial is growing fast.** Segment revenue was $39.9 million in the third quarter, against $24.3 million a year earlier (company release, 2026-11-05). Management cited a pipeline of significant project work heading into 2027.\n- **Thermal Barrier recovered from the second quarter.** Third-quarter segment revenue was $45.3 million, up from $29.5 million in the second quarter (company releases, 2026-08-06 and 2026-11-05). On the 2026-11-05 earnings call, management attributed the rise to higher General Motors (GM) volumes.\n- **Europe is building.** European Thermal Barrier revenue reached a record $8.0 million in the third quarter. The company expects seven automakers across eight programs to drive growth into 2027 (company release, 2026-11-05).\n- **Fourth-quarter guide stays profitable.** Aspen guided fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $5 million–$13 million on revenue of $60 million–$75 million (company release, 2026-11-05).\n- **Cash exceeds the debt.** Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash were $146.5 million at 2026-09-30, against $22.5 million of current long-term debt, $51.1 million of long-term debt and an $11.2 million revolving credit line (company release, 2026-11-05).\n\n## Bear Case\n- **Fourth-quarter revenue guide falls.** The $60 million–$75 million range sits below third-quarter revenue of $85.2 million (company release, 2026-11-05). The top of the range is below the third-quarter result.\n- **Net loss missed its guide.** The $10.4 million third-quarter net loss compares with a guided $6 million–$9 million. It includes $15.1 million of East Providence incident costs and a $4.6 million loss on disposal of assets, mostly Statesboro, Georgia write-downs.\n- **Incident costs continue.** Aspen expects another $5 million–$10 million of East Providence costs in the fourth quarter, excluded from adjusted EBITDA. Full restoration is targeted for the first half of 2027 (company release, 2026-11-05).\n- **New securities registration.** Aspen filed a prospectus for a $150 million mixed-securities offering on 2026-11-05 (company news). Any issuance would dilute existing holders, and the rise to $6.41 raises the price at which new shares could be sold.\n- **Large holder sold into weakness.** Wood River Capital, LLC reported an open-market sale of 12,280,426 shares at $4.73 on 2026-09-23 (SEC Form 4, filed 2026-09-24).\n- **Thermal Barrier is still below last year.** Third-quarter segment revenue of $45.3 million compares with $48.7 million a year earlier (company release, 2026-11-05). Energy Industrial, not electric-vehicle barriers, drove the year-over-year gain.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n\nThe shares closed at $6.41 on 2026-11-11. That is above the 50-day average of $5.3 and the 200-day average of $4.74, both from adjusted daily closes. The three-month change is 5.6%.\n\nThe 52-week intraday high is $8.10 on 2026-08-06, the day of the second-quarter report. The 52-week closing low is $2.57 on 2026-02-25. The close of $4.91 on 2026-11-06 followed the third-quarter report; the three sessions after it closed at $6.11, $5.72 and $6.41.\n\nAt $6.41 the market has priced in the third-quarter beat and has recovered the post-report drop. It has not repriced for the lower fourth-quarter guide or for possible issuance under the $150 million registration. Post-report analyst target changes were not found, so no consensus target is cited.\n\nSEC Form 4 filings show a 6,073-share award to director Stacy Durbin Nieuwoudt on 2026-11-04 and tax withholding of 1,143 shares by the company's general counsel on 2026-09-30. Neither is an open-market trade.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **~2027-02-26 (est.):** Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results. Shows whether revenue lands inside the $60 million–$75 million guide and whether adjusted EBITDA stays positive after East Providence disruption.\n- **~2027-06-30 (est.):** Company target for full East Providence restoration (first half of 2027). A slip past mid-2027 would extend incident costs and constrain output.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close above $7.18, 12% above the 2026-11-11 close of $6.41, would show the shares leading the S&P 500. Fourth-quarter revenue above the $75 million top of the guide would also show the shares leading.\n\n## Correlation Notes\nAspen's Thermal Barrier segment tracks North American and European electric-vehicle production schedules, so automaker volume news moves the shares. On the 2026-11-05 earnings call, management assumed GM production at an annualized 70,000 to 90,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter. The Energy Industrial segment follows liquefied natural gas and subsea project spending, a separate driver from vehicle volumes. GM volume commentary is the closest external indicator for the Thermal Barrier line.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-10",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-12T17:33:25+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-12",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-12",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}