{ "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json", "ticker": "BA", "name": "The Boeing Company", "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BA/", "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BA.json", "status": "WATCHLIST", "current_conviction": "LOW", "archetype": { "code": "a4", "n": 4 }, "current_thesis": "Boeing's shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500 because 737 MAX deliveries fell to 32 in October 2026 and its airplane unit is cutting 5% of staff. The November delivery release (~8 December 2026) and 777X engine-seal and ETOPS approvals decide whether output and 2027 cash targets recover.", "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close above $190.34, the 50-day average of closes on 2026-11-11, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; or November 2026 737 deliveries of 43 or more, back to the September level.", "catalyst_date": null, "portfolio": null, "pick": null, "themes": [ "defense-aerospace" ], "tags": [], "sources": [], "caveats": [], "source_links": [ { "title": "Boeing jet deliveries drop 14% in October", "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/10/boeing-jet-deliveries-drop-14percent-in-october.html", "date": "2026-11-10" }, { "title": "Boeing to cut 5% of commercial airplane workforce", "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/09/boeing-layoffs-commercial-airplane.html", "date": "2026-11-09" }, { "title": "Boeing posted best October for orders since 1997 as deliveries fell", "url": "https://qz.com/boeing-october-orders-best-since-1997-deliveries-fell-111026", "date": null }, { "title": "Boeing 737 Max Deliveries Fall to Lowest Level Since November Last Year", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-11-06/boeing-737-deliveries-drop-in-october-to-lowest-in-almost-a-year", "date": "2026-11-06" }, { "title": "Examining Why Boeing's 777X Certification Timeline Is Likely Slipping", "url": "https://leehamnews.com/2026/09/17/examining-why-boeings-777x-certification-timeline-is-likely-slipping/", "date": "2026-09-17" }, { "title": "BOEING CO - Form 4 - FY2026", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000012927/000122520826008642/doc4.xml", "date": "2026-11-03" }, { "title": "Avolon finalizes record order for 140 Boeing 737-10s", "url": "https://www.stocktitan.net/news/BA/avolon-finalizes-order-for-140-boeing-737-10-8mxrtm5ab147.html", "date": null } ], "evidence": [ { "claim": "Boeing delivered 49 jets in October 2026, including 32 737 MAX, 11 787s, two 777 Freighters and three 767s, down from 57 jets and 43 737s in September.", "source": "Boeing October deliveries release, reported by CNBC 2026-11-10", "as_of": "2026-10-31" }, { "claim": "Boeing booked 165 gross orders in October 2026 with no cancellations, including 140 737-10s for Avolon; unit backlog rose to 6,457 jets from 6,341 at 2026-09-30.", "source": "CNBC and Benzinga, 2026-11-10", "as_of": "2026-10-31" }, { "claim": "Boeing delivered 524 jets through October 2026, up about 6% from 493 a year earlier; CEO Kelly Ortberg said Boeing will miss its target of about 500 737 deliveries this year.", "source": "CNBC 2026-11-10", "as_of": "2026-10-31" }, { "claim": "Boeing Commercial Airplanes will cut about 5% of its workforce through attrition and involuntary layoffs, with notices starting in December, because reduced aircraft output leaves it overstaffed.", "source": "Stephanie Pope memo, reported by CNBC 2026-11-09", "as_of": "2026-11-09" }, { "claim": "Commercial Airplanes posted Q3 2026 revenue of $10.7B (down 3%) and an operating loss of $697M, a (6.5)% margin; debt was $45.9B against $20.7B of cash and marketable securities.", "source": "Boeing Q3 2026 results, 8-K Ex. 99.1", "as_of": "2026-09-30" }, { "claim": "Boeing narrowed 2026 free-cash-flow guidance to about $2B and targets about $3B in 2027, $6B in 2028 and $10B in 2029; the 2027 target assumes 777X certification by mid-2027.", "source": "Boeing Q3 2026 earnings call", "as_of": "2026-10-27" }, { "claim": "Directors Mortimer Buckley and Steven Mollenkopf bought 5,820 shares at $171.55 and 2,950 shares at $173.03 on 2026-10-30; BGS head Christopher Raymond sold 2,994 shares at $174.91 on 2026-11-09.", "source": "SEC Form 4 filings dated 2026-11-03 and 2026-11-12", "as_of": "2026-11-12" }, { "claim": "Barclays kept its Buy rating and $250 price target on Boeing after the October delivery release.", "source": "Barclays rating action, reported 2026-11-11", "as_of": "2026-11-11" } ], "view_changes": [], "frame": null, "filed_numbers": { "as_of": "2026-11-13", "sector": "Industrials", "financials": { "status": "ok", "reason": null, "close_date": "2026-11-13", "latest_quarter": "2026-09-30", "figures": { "revenue": { "status": "ok", "quarters": [ { "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-27", "restated": null, "value_musd": 24188, "yoy_pct": 3.9 }, { "end": "2026-06-30", "filed": "2026-07-28", "restated": null, "value_musd": 24560, "yoy_pct": 8 }, { "end": "2026-03-31", "filed": "2026-04-22", "restated": null, "value_musd": 22217, "yoy_pct": 14 }, { "end": "2025-12-31", "filed": "2026-01-30", "restated": null, "value_musd": 23948, "yoy_pct": 57.1 }, { "end": "2025-09-30", "filed": "2025-10-29", "restated": null, "value_musd": 23270, "yoy_pct": 30.4 }, { "end": "2025-06-30", "filed": "2025-07-29", "restated": null, "value_musd": 22749, "yoy_pct": 34.9 } ] }, "gross_margin": { "status": "ok", "quarters": [ { "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-27", "restated": null, "pct": 9 }, { 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"value_musd": -123 }, "net_income": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-27", "four_quarters_end": "2026-09-30", "value_musd": -116, "four_quarters_musd": 7656 }, "operating_cash_flow": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-27", "first_end": "2025-12-31", "value_musd": 4012 }, "capital_spending": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-27", "first_end": "2025-12-31", "value_musd": 3996 }, "free_cash_flow": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-27", "first_end": "2025-12-31", "value_musd": 16 }, "diluted_share_change": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-27", "base_end": "2025-09-30", "pct": 4.3 }, "cash": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-27", "value_musd": 20714 }, "debt": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-27", "value_musd": 45920, "composition": "non-current long-term debt and finance leases plus current debt" }, "net_cash": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-27", "value_musd": -25206 }, "deferred_revenue": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-27", "value_musd": 67502, "yoy_pct": 16.5 }, "backlog": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-27", "value_musd": 745431, "yoy_pct": 17.3 }, "receivables": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-27", "value_musd": 4069 }, "inventory": { "status": "not reported" }, "equity": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-27", "value_musd": 6547 }, "market_value": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-10-20", "basis_filed": "2026-10-27", "value_musd": 135905.2 }, "enterprise_value": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-10-20", "basis_filed": "2026-10-27", "value_musd": 161111.2 }, "ev_sales": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-10-20", "basis_filed": "2026-10-27", "multiple": 1.7 }, "ev_ebit": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-10-20", "basis_filed": "2026-10-27", "multiple": 16.5 }, "pe": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-10-20", "basis_filed": "2026-10-27", "multiple": 17.8 }, "pb": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-10-20", "basis_filed": "2026-10-27", "multiple": 20.8 }, "fcf_yield": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-10-20", "basis_filed": "2026-10-27", "pct": 0 } } }, "short_interest": { "status": "ok", "settlement": "2026-10-15", "published": "2026-10-26", "short_pct_of_outstanding": 1.85, "days_to_cover": 1.9, "change_pct": -0.9 }, "insiders": { "status": "ok", "as_of": "2026-11-15", "windows": [ { "days": 90, "status": "ok", "from": "2026-08-18", "bought_usd": 1508847.7, "sold_usd": 523665.57, "bought_unpriced": 0, "sold_unpriced": 0 }, { "days": 365, "status": "ok", "from": "2025-11-16", "bought_usd": 2407263.76, "sold_usd": 5504513.63, "bought_unpriced": 0, "sold_unpriced": 0 } ] } }, "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\n\nBoeing's shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500 than to beat it over the next three months. 737 MAX output fell to 32 deliveries in October 2026, and the airplane unit is cutting about 5% of its staff because it is building fewer jets than planned. The November delivery release, expected around 2026-12-08, shows whether 737 output recovers. Progress on the 777X engine seal and extended-operations (ETOPS) testing approval shows whether the 2027 cash targets hold. The rating is Low because neither has turned yet.\n\nBoeing delivered 49 jets in October, down from 57 in September and 53 in October 2025, per CNBC on 2026-11-10. 737 MAX deliveries fell to 32 from 43, which matched the estimate Bloomberg published on 2026-11-06. CNBC reported that CEO Kelly Ortberg has said Boeing will miss its target of about 500 737 deliveries this year, and that the 737 reaches 47 jets a month only in early 2027.\n\nDemand is not the constraint. Boeing booked 165 gross orders in October with no cancellations, including 140 737-10s for Avolon (CNBC, 2026-11-10). Its unit backlog rose to 6,457 jets at 2026-10-31 from 6,341 at 2026-09-30 (Benzinga, 2026-11-10). A bigger order book does not lift deliveries while wing production limits output.\n\nThe price already reflects the weak October count. The shares closed at $171.55 on 2026-11-12, down 26.0% over three months and within 3% of the 52-week closing low of $167.14 set on 2026-10-28.\n\n## Bull Case\n\n- **October orders were the strongest since 1997.** Boeing booked 165 orders in October: 150 737 MAX, led by Avolon's 140 737-10s, plus 15 787s (CNBC, 2026-11-10). Quartz called it Boeing's best October for net orders since 1997.\n- **Directors bought after the drop.** Director Mortimer Buckley bought 5,820 shares at $171.55 and Chairman Steven Mollenkopf bought 2,950 shares at $173.03, both on 2026-10-30 (SEC Form 4 filings, 2026-11-03).\n- **One major broker still sees upside.** Barclays kept its Buy rating and $250 price target on 2026-11-11, after the October delivery count.\n- **Year-to-date deliveries are still up.** Boeing delivered 524 jets through October, up about 6% from 493 a year earlier (CNBC, 2026-11-10). The 787 line delivered 11 jets in October.\n- **The staff cut lowers costs.** Stephanie Pope, head of Boeing Commercial Airplanes, told staff on 2026-11-09 that the unit will cut about 5% of its workforce, with notices starting in December (CNBC). The unit lost $697 million in the third quarter, so lower fixed costs reach its margin directly.\n- **Cash flow and backlog give support.** Third-quarter free cash flow was $464 million after about $0.7 billion of Department of Justice settlement payments, and total backlog was a record $745 billion at 2026-09-30 (8-K, 2026-10-27). Defense, Space & Security revenue rose 15% to $7.9 billion in the quarter.\n\n## Bear Case\n\n- **The 737 count is confirmed low.** Official October 737 deliveries were 32, the fewest since November 2025 (CNBC, 2026-11-10; Bloomberg, 2026-11-06). Wing production remains the constraint, per CNBC.\n- **Boeing will miss its 737 goal.** Ortberg has said deliveries will fall short of about 500 737s in 2026, and the 47-a-month rate slips to early 2027 (CNBC, 2026-11-10).\n- **A supplier dispute hits other jets.** CNBC reported on 2026-11-10 that a supplier dispute has stalled wing production for 777 Freighters and 767s, which also feed the KC-46 tanker.\n- **Boeing is staffing down for lower output.** \"Adjusting our production schedules and reducing aircraft output puts us in an overstaffed position,\" Pope wrote on 2026-11-09, per CNBC.\n- **Commercial Airplanes still loses money.** The unit reported third-quarter revenue of $10.7 billion, down 3%, and an operating loss of $697 million, a (6.5)% margin (8-K, 2026-10-27).\n- **777X timing waits on an engine part.** Leeham News reported on 2026-09-17 that ETOPS testing cannot start until the GE9X engine mid-seal certification plan is complete, and that certification is expected to slip into 2027. Boeing's roughly $3 billion 2027 free-cash-flow target assumes certification by mid-2027.\n- **The balance sheet carries heavy debt.** Debt was $45.9 billion against $20.7 billion of cash and marketable securities at 2026-09-30 (8-K, 2026-10-27).\n- **An executive sold into the weakness.** Christopher Raymond, head of Boeing Global Services, sold 2,994 shares at $174.91 on 2026-11-09 (SEC Form 4, 2026-11-12).\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n\nThe shares closed at $171.55 on 2026-11-12, 32.6% below the 52-week intraday high of $254.35 set on 2026-01-27. They are down 26.0% over three months from a close of $231.67 on 2026-08-14, per adjusted daily closes.\n\nBoth trend lines sit above the price. The 50-day moving average was $189.6 and the 200-day moving average was $213.64 as of 2026-11-12. The 50-day average is falling toward the price as the higher August and September closes roll out of it.\n\nThe shares have held a narrow range since the October delivery estimate. Daily closes from 2026-11-05 to 2026-11-12 ran between $171.55 and $174.54. The 52-week closing low of $167.14 on 2026-10-28 is the nearest lower reference. A close back above the 50-day average would show buyers paying up before deliveries recover.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **~2026-12-01 (est.):** Layoff notices begin under the 5% Commercial Airplanes workforce cut. The size and locations of the cut show how far Boeing has lowered its near-term production plan.\n- **~2026-12-08 (est.):** Boeing November 2026 commercial deliveries and orders. Shows whether 737 deliveries recover toward September's 43 after October's 32, and whether 777 Freighter and 767 deliveries continue despite the supplier wing dispute.\n- **~2026-12-31 (est.):** KC-46A Lot 13 award, needed before year-end for the 2026 cash outlook. A late award would put the roughly $2B 2026 free-cash-flow outlook at risk.\n- **~2027-01-26 (est.):** Boeing fourth-quarter 2026 report. It settles 2026 free cash flow and shows whether the Commercial Airplanes margin improved from the (6.5)% of Q3 2026.\n- **~2027-06-30 (est.):** 777-9 certification, per Boeing's planning assumption. The roughly $3B 2027 free-cash-flow target assumes certification by mid-2027; a slip would put that target and the 2027 first delivery at risk.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close above $190.34, the 50-day average of closes on 2026-11-11, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; or November 2026 737 deliveries of 43 or more, back to the September level.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n\nBoeing shares move with news on Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) oversight of 737 production rates and new-model certification, which can outweigh reported results. They also track the engine makers whose output and parts limit deliveries, including GE Aerospace for the 777X's GE9X engine. Airbus delivered 621 jets through October against Boeing's 524 (CNBC, 2026-11-10), and the relative delivery pace of the two often shapes how the market reads each monthly release. Defense contract awards, such as the $119.7 million P-8A retrofit modification announced on 2026-11-05, rarely move the shares on their own.", "first_seen": "2026-11-10", "last_analyzed": "2026-11-12T23:42:22+00:00", "last_synthesized": "2026-11-12", "date_modified": "2026-11-12", "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL." }