{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "BLLN",
  "name": "BillionToOne, Inc.",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BLLN/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BLLN.json",
  "status": "DORMANT",
  "current_conviction": "MEDIUM",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a7",
    "n": 7
  },
  "current_thesis": "BillionToOne is more likely to beat the S&P 500 over three months: it beat and raised on 4 November 2026 (revenue $123.0 million, up 47%) and is profitable with $561.5 million in cash. The fourth-quarter report, expected around March 2027, tests slowing growth.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close below $94.44, the 2026-10-13 closing low, which would erase the rebound from October. Full-year 2026 revenue below the $460 million low end of guidance, or a fourth-quarter operating loss, would also show the case failing.",
  "catalyst_date": null,
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [
    "medtech-diagnostics"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "caveats": [],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "BillionToOne, Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0002070849/000207084926000078/a991blln-earningspressrele.htm",
      "date": "2026-11-04"
    },
    {
      "title": "BillionToOne (BLLN) Q3 2026 earnings review",
      "url": "https://finsee.ai/earnings/blln/2026/q3/en/",
      "date": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $123.0 million, up 47% from $83.5 million; prenatal revenue $104.3 million (up 41%), oncology $17.1 million (up 96%), 206,000 tests delivered (up 25%).",
      "source": "BillionToOne third-quarter 2026 results, Form 8-K",
      "as_of": "2026-11-04"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Income from operations was $11.0 million versus $9.6 million a year earlier; net income $17.4 million, $0.32 per diluted share; gross margin 71%.",
      "source": "BillionToOne third-quarter 2026 results, Form 8-K",
      "as_of": "2026-11-04"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Full-year 2026 revenue guidance raised to $460–470 million (51% to 54% growth) from $450–465 million.",
      "source": "BillionToOne third-quarter 2026 results, Form 8-K",
      "as_of": "2026-11-04"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Cash and cash equivalents were $561.5 million.",
      "source": "BillionToOne third-quarter 2026 results release",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Second-quarter revenue was $109.4 million, up 64%, with operating income of $5.5 million.",
      "source": "BillionToOne second-quarter 2026 results release",
      "as_of": "2026-08-05"
    },
    {
      "claim": "JPMorgan raised its price target to $135 with an Overweight rating; BTIG reiterated Buy with a $130 target.",
      "source": "JPMorgan and BTIG analyst notes, company news",
      "as_of": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Piper Sandler maintained Overweight on BillionToOne and lowered its price target to $130.",
      "source": "Analyst-action news, Piper Sandler",
      "as_of": "2026-11-10"
    },
    {
      "claim": "CEO Oguzhan Atay sold 30,335 shares at an average of $109.93 and CTO David Tsao sold 20,000 shares at an average of $109.24 on 2026-11-02 under Rule 10b5-1 plans.",
      "source": "SEC Form 4 filings filed 2026-11-04",
      "as_of": "2026-11-02"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [],
  "frame": null,
  "filed_numbers": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-13",
    "sector": "Healthcare",
    "financials": {
      "status": "ok",
      "reason": null,
      "close_date": "2026-11-13",
      "latest_quarter": "2026-09-30",
      "figures": {
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          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
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              "yoy_pct": 47.2
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-05",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 109.4,
              "yoy_pct": 64.4
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-05-06",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 108.4,
              "yoy_pct": 83.8
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-03-11",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 96.1,
              "yoy_pct": 113.1
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-12-10",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 83.5,
              "yoy_pct": 117.4
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-05",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 66.6,
              "yoy_pct": null
            }
          ]
        },
        "gross_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
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              "restated": null,
              "pct": 70.9
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              "restated": null,
              "pct": 73
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            {
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              "restated": null,
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            {
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              "filed": "2025-12-10",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 69.9
            },
            {
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              "filed": "2026-08-05",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 65.3
            }
          ]
        },
        "operating_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-04",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 9
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-05",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 5
            },
            {
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              "filed": "2026-05-06",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 16.5
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-03-11",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 10.8
            },
            {
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              "filed": "2025-12-10",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 11.5
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-05",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -2.4
            }
          ]
        },
        "pretax_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-04",
          "value_musd": 17.4
        },
        "net_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-04",
          "four_quarters_end": "2026-09-30",
          "value_musd": 17.4,
          "four_quarters_musd": 49.4
        },
        "operating_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-04",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 47.9
        },
        "capital_spending": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-04",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 14
        },
        "free_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-04",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 33.9
        },
        "diluted_share_change": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-04",
          "base_end": "2025-09-30",
          "pct": 245.1
        },
        "cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-04",
          "value_musd": 561.5
        },
        "debt": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-04",
          "value_musd": 89,
          "composition": "long-term debt"
        },
        "net_cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-04",
          "value_musd": 472.5
        },
        "deferred_revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-04",
          "value_musd": 1.9,
          "yoy_pct": -29.6
        },
        "backlog": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2025-09-30",
          "filed": "2025-12-10",
          "value_musd": 4.7,
          "yoy_pct": null
        },
        "receivables": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-04",
          "value_musd": 88.3
        },
        "inventory": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-04",
          "value_musd": 21.9
        },
        "equity": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-04",
          "value_musd": 566.5
        },
        "market_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-09-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-04",
          "value_musd": 5649.9
        },
        "enterprise_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-09-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-04",
          "value_musd": 5177.4
        },
        "ev_sales": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-09-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-04",
          "multiple": 11.9
        },
        "ev_ebit": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-09-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-04",
          "multiple": 115.8
        },
        "pe": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-09-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-04",
          "multiple": 114.4
        },
        "pb": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-09-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-04",
          "multiple": 10
        },
        "fcf_yield": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-09-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-04",
          "pct": 0.6
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      }
    },
    "short_interest": {
      "status": "ok",
      "settlement": "2026-10-15",
      "published": "2026-10-26",
      "short_pct_of_outstanding": 5.46,
      "days_to_cover": 5.5,
      "change_pct": 4
    },
    "insiders": {
      "status": "ok",
      "as_of": "2026-11-15",
      "windows": [
        {
          "days": 90,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2026-08-18",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 26737126.85,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        },
        {
          "days": 365,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2025-11-16",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 58478258.35,
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    }
  },
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\nBillionToOne is more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over the next three months. The company beat and raised in its third-quarter report of 2026-11-04, and it is profitable with $561.5 million in cash. The fourth-quarter 2026 report, expected around March 2027, tests whether growth that slowed from 64% to 47% holds above the guided path.\n\nThird-quarter revenue was $123.0 million, up 47% from $83.5 million a year earlier. Full-year 2026 revenue guidance rose to $460–470 million from $450–465 million. Prenatal testing revenue was $104.3 million (up 41%), oncology revenue was $17.1 million (up 96%), tests delivered were 206,000 (up 25%), gross margin was 71% and income from operations was $11.0 million, all per the 8-K filed 2026-11-04.\n\nThe shares closed at $110.79 on 2026-11-12, up 18.7% over three months and 26.4% below the 52-week intraday high of $150.44 set on 2026-08-05. They have drifted down from $114.95 on 2026-11-09 and sit above the 50-day average of $106.88 and the 200-day average of $97.54. The market is paying for continued profitable growth after a 36% drop that followed the second-quarter report in August, as one outlet reported.\n\n## Bull Case\n- **The quarter beat and guidance rose.** Revenue of $123.0 million compares with $109.4 million in the second quarter. The company describes the raised 2026 guide as 51% to 54% growth over 2025.\n- **Profit is larger and the company says it will last.** Income from operations was $11.0 million in the third quarter, against $5.5 million in the second quarter and $9.6 million a year earlier. Net income was $17.4 million, or $0.32 per diluted share. The company said it expects profitability \"similar to current levels, even with significant continued investments.\"\n- **Oncology is still nearly doubling.** Oncology revenue was $17.1 million, up 96% from $8.7 million, per the 8-K. A peer-reviewed study reported on 2026-10-07 found the tissue-free Northstar Response test matched a tumor-informed assay on tumor-burden direction in 67 of 71 sequential pairs (94%).\n- **Sell-side targets sit above the price after the report.** JPMorgan raised its target to $135 with an Overweight rating on 2026-11-05. BTIG reiterated Buy with a $130 target the same day. Piper Sandler kept Overweight on 2026-11-10 with a $130 target.\n- **Cash funds the growth.** Cash and equivalents were $561.5 million at 2026-09-30, per the company's results release.\n\n## Bear Case\n- **Growth is slowing.** Revenue growth fell to 47% from 64% in the second quarter. Tests delivered rose 25% against 35%, and oncology growth eased to 96% from 176%.\n- **Part of the beat was one-time.** An independent earnings review (finsee.ai) reported a $7.6 million revenue true-up from one payer in the third quarter. The same review calculates that the guidance midpoint implies fourth-quarter growth of about 29%. The company says guidance includes true-ups already booked this year and excludes any in the fourth quarter.\n- **Insiders keep selling.** Chairman and CEO Oguzhan Atay sold 30,335 shares at an average of $109.93 on 2026-11-02, and CTO David Tsao sold 20,000 shares at an average of $109.24 the same day, both under Rule 10b5-1 plans (SEC Form 4, filed 2026-11-04). Atay also sold 11,000 shares at $118.00 on 2026-10-28. A director's Form 4 filed 2026-11-12 reports an other acquisition or disposition of 614,358 shares on 2026-11-09.\n- **One analyst lowered a target after the report.** Piper Sandler lowered its price target to $130 on 2026-11-10 while keeping Overweight.\n- **The shares are fading from the post-report high.** The close slid from $114.95 on 2026-11-09 to $110.23 on 2026-11-11 before $110.79 on 2026-11-12.\n- **The August drop is not fully explained.** The shares fell sharply after the second-quarter report of 2026-08-05, which one outlet attributed to a beat with no guidance raise. The raise in November addressed that complaint, but the market has not yet rated the slower growth.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\nThe last close is $110.79 (2026-11-12). The 50-day average is $106.88 and the 200-day average is $97.54, both on adjusted closes as of that date. The 52-week intraday high is $150.44 (2026-08-05), and the 52-week closing low is $64.03 (2026-03-12).\n\nThe three-month reference close was $93.33 on 2026-08-14, so the 18.7% gain covers the period after the August drop. The October low, a closing low on 2026-10-13, is the level below which that rebound would be erased.\n\nThe company listed on Nasdaq on 2025-11-06, so ranges and averages cover about a year of trading.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **~2027-03-01 (est.):** Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results report (date not yet announced). Shows whether revenue lands inside the $460–470 million guided range, whether growth holds above the roughly 29% fourth-quarter rate an independent review calculates, and whether operating income stays positive.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close below $94.44, the 2026-10-13 closing low, which would erase the rebound from October. Full-year 2026 revenue below the $460 million low end of guidance, or a fourth-quarter operating loss, would also show the case failing.\n\nThe risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:\n\n- Revenue growth keeps slowing toward the roughly 29% fourth-quarter rate that an independent review calculates from the guidance midpoint. Confirmed by: A fourth-quarter report with revenue growth below 30% or full-year revenue below the $460 million low end of guidance.\n- The third-quarter beat leaned on a one-time payer true-up, so underlying revenue is weaker than the headline. Confirmed by: Management saying on the fourth-quarter call that the $7.6 million true-up explains most of the third quarter's upside.\n- Operating expenses rise faster than revenue and erase the $11.0 million quarterly operating income. Confirmed by: An operating loss or sharply lower income from operations in the fourth-quarter report.\n- Continued insider selling under Rule 10b5-1 plans caps the rebound. Confirmed by: Further Form 4 sales by executives following those filed 2026-11-04 for sales on 2026-11-02.\n- Final CMS 2027 lab fee rates reverse the favourable preliminary changes. Confirmed by: A final CMS clinical laboratory fee schedule that cuts rates for BillionToOne tests.\n\n## Correlation Notes\nBillionToOne trades with prenatal and cancer diagnostics peers and with growth-oriented healthcare shares more than with the broad market. CareDx was named alongside it in the 2026-09-23 Benzinga report on Medicare lab fee changes, and Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) rate decisions move both. Earnings reactions have been large in both directions: the shares fell sharply after the second-quarter report on 2026-08-05 and rose after the third-quarter report on 2026-11-04.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-10",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-13T00:55:18+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-13",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-13",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}