{ "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json", "ticker": "BMBL", "name": "Bumble Inc.", "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BMBL/", "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BMBL.json", "status": "WATCHLIST", "current_conviction": "LOW", "archetype": { "code": "a5", "n": 5 }, "current_thesis": "Bumble's shares are likely to trail the S&P 500 because they trade as a pending $6.05-per-share cash takeover by Ithaca Holdings, closing at $5.99 on 11 November 2026. Antitrust clearance and the Schedule 14C closing timeline decide when the capped payout arrives.", "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close above $6.83, about 14% above the 2026-11-11 close and well over the $6.05 offer, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500, or a competing bid or raised offer above $6.05 per share.", "catalyst_date": "2027-07-12", "portfolio": null, "pick": null, "themes": [ "m-and-a-special-situations" ], "tags": [], "sources": [], "caveats": [], "source_links": [ { "title": "Bumble Inc. - Form 10-Q - FY2026", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001830043/000183004326000123/bmbl-20260930.htm", "date": null }, { "title": "Bumble", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1830043/000095010326015480/dp254907_ex9901.htm", "date": null }, { "title": "SEC EDGAR", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1830043/000095010326015480/dp254907_8k.htm", "date": null }, { "title": "Bumble Inc. - Form SCHEDULE 13D/A - FY2026", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001830043/000119312526421973/primary_doc.xml", "date": "2026-10-14" }, { "title": "Bumble Quietly Reports Q3 Results as Ithaca Acquisition Moves Ahead", "url": "https://www.globaldatinginsights.com/featured/bumble-q3-2026-results/", "date": "2026-11-05" }, { "title": "Investor Alert: Bumble (BMBL) $6.05 per Share Merger with Ithaca Holdco is being Investigated for Potential Breaches of Fiduciary Duties", "url": "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/investor-alert-bumble-bmbl-6-05-per-share-merger-with-ithaca-holdco-is-being-investigated-for-potential-breaches-of-fiduciary-duties-302912204.html", "date": null }, { "title": "Bumble agrees to a $1.3B acquisition deal as online dating faces a reset", "url": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/10/13/bumble-agrees-to-a-1-3b-acquisition-deal-as-online-dating-faces-a-reset/", "date": "2026-10-13" } ], "evidence": [ { "claim": "Ithaca Holdings agreed to acquire Bumble for $6.05 per Class A share in cash, an enterprise value of $1.3 billion, about 138% above the unaffected 2026-10-09 close.", "source": "Bumble 8-K Exhibit 99.1, 2026-10-13", "as_of": "2026-10-13" }, { "claim": "Ithaca owes a $102 million parent termination fee in specified cases; Bumble's termination fee is $29.0 million. The merger agreement has no financing condition.", "source": "Bumble 8-K, 2026-10-13", "as_of": "2026-10-13" }, { "claim": "Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $207.1 million, down from $246.2 million a year earlier; net earnings were $31.6 million.", "source": "Bumble Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 2026-09-30", "as_of": "2026-09-30" }, { "claim": "Third-quarter revenue of $207.091 million beat the $200.166 million consensus estimate; earnings per share of $0.20 were in line.", "source": "Benzinga, 2026-11-09", "as_of": "2026-11-09" }, { "claim": "Bumble held $190.3 million of cash and equivalents and $460.2 million of term loan principal on 2026-09-30.", "source": "Bumble Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 2026-09-30", "as_of": "2026-09-30" }, { "claim": "Bumble's SEC filing index lists no Schedule 14C, Schedule 13E-3 or 8-K filed in November 2026; the latest filings are the 10-Q and three Form 4s dated 2026-11-04.", "source": "SEC EDGAR filing index for Bumble Inc. (CIK 1830043)", "as_of": "2026-11-12" }, { "claim": "Blackstone's forward transactions on 2,763,510 Bumble shares terminated on 2026-10-13 at a final calculation price of $3.5923; Blackstone and Stephen Schwarzman report 15,901,210 shares, about 12.0% of Class A.", "source": "Schedule 13D/A Amendment No. 13, signed 2026-10-14", "as_of": "2026-10-14" }, { "claim": "Glazer Capital, LLC and Paul J. Glazer reported owning 9,427,481 Bumble shares, 7.1% of the class.", "source": "Schedule 13G filed with the SEC, 2026-10-20", "as_of": "2026-10-20" } ], "view_changes": [], "frame": null, "filed_numbers": { "as_of": "2026-11-13", "sector": "Technology", "financials": { "status": "ok", "reason": null, "close_date": "2026-11-13", "latest_quarter": "2026-09-30", "figures": { "revenue": { "status": "ok", "quarters": [ { "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-04", "restated": null, "value_musd": 207.1, "yoy_pct": -15.9 }, { "end": "2026-06-30", "filed": "2026-08-06", "restated": null, "value_musd": 210.5, "yoy_pct": -15.2 }, { "end": "2026-03-31", "filed": "2026-05-06", "restated": null, "value_musd": 212.4, "yoy_pct": -14.1 }, { "end": "2025-12-31", "filed": "2026-03-16", "restated": null, "value_musd": 224.2, "yoy_pct": -14.3 }, { "end": "2025-09-30", "filed": "2025-11-07", "restated": null, "value_musd": 246.2, "yoy_pct": -10 }, { "end": "2025-06-30", "filed": "2025-08-07", "restated": null, "value_musd": 248.2, "yoy_pct": -7.6 } ] }, "gross_margin": { "status": "ok", "quarters": [ { "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-04", "restated": null, "pct": 73.4 }, { "end": "2026-06-30", "filed": "2026-08-06", "restated": null, "pct": 74.4 }, { "end": "2026-03-31", "filed": "2026-05-06", "restated": null, "pct": 74.2 }, { "end": "2025-12-31", "filed": "2026-03-16", "restated": null, "pct": 71.2 }, { "end": "2025-09-30", "filed": "2025-11-07", "restated": null, "pct": 71.9 }, { "end": "2025-06-30", "filed": "2025-08-07", "restated": null, "pct": 70.1 } ] }, "operating_margin": { "status": "ok", "quarters": [ { "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-04", "restated": null, "pct": 26.3 }, { "end": "2026-06-30", "filed": "2026-08-06", "restated": null, "pct": -53.2 }, { "end": "2026-03-31", "filed": "2026-05-06", "restated": null, "pct": 30.7 }, { "end": "2025-12-31", "filed": "2026-03-16", "restated": null, "pct": -256.8 }, { "end": "2025-09-30", "filed": "2025-11-07", "restated": null, "pct": 25.9 }, { "end": "2025-06-30", "filed": "2025-08-07", "restated": null, "pct": -136.3 } ] }, "pretax_income": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-04", "value_musd": 38.3 }, "net_income": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-04", "four_quarters_end": "2026-09-30", "value_musd": 27.3, "four_quarters_musd": -527.8 }, "operating_cash_flow": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-04", "first_end": "2025-12-31", "value_musd": 246 }, "capital_spending": { "status": "not reported" }, "free_cash_flow": { "status": "not available" }, "diluted_share_change": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-04", "base_end": "2025-09-30", "pct": -14.7 }, "cash": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-04", "value_musd": 190.3 }, "debt": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-04", "value_musd": 460.2, "composition": "long-term debt" }, "net_cash": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-04", "value_musd": -269.9 }, "deferred_revenue": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-04", "value_musd": 33.3, "yoy_pct": -14.3 }, "backlog": { "status": "not reported" }, "receivables": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-04", "value_musd": 64 }, "inventory": { "status": "not reported" }, "equity": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-04", "value_musd": 553.8 }, "market_value": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-09-30", "basis_filed": "2026-11-04", "value_musd": 793.2 }, "enterprise_value": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-09-30", "basis_filed": "2026-11-04", "value_musd": 1063.1 }, "ev_sales": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-09-30", "basis_filed": "2026-11-04", "multiple": 1.2 }, "ev_ebit": { "status": "not meaningful" }, "pe": { "status": "not meaningful" }, "pb": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-09-30", "basis_filed": "2026-11-04", "multiple": 1.4 }, "fcf_yield": { "status": "not available" } } }, "short_interest": { "status": "ok", "settlement": "2026-10-15", "published": "2026-10-26", "short_pct_of_outstanding": 9.02, "days_to_cover": 1, "change_pct": -18.3 }, "insiders": { "status": "ok", "as_of": "2026-11-15", "windows": [ { "days": 90, "status": "ok", "from": "2026-08-18", "bought_usd": 0, "sold_usd": 20873399.9, "bought_unpriced": 0, "sold_unpriced": 0 }, { "days": 365, "status": "ok", "from": "2025-11-16", "bought_usd": 0, "sold_usd": 75507221.48, "bought_unpriced": 0, "sold_unpriced": 0 } ] } }, "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\nBumble's shares are more likely to trail the S&P 500 over the next three months than to beat it, because they now trade as a pending $6.05-per-share cash takeover by Ithaca Holdings. The rating is Low because the most the shares can gain is capped at the offer. Clearance under the Hart-Scott-Rodino (HSR) Act and the closing timeline in the Schedule 14C information statement settle when the payout arrives. The shares only lead the index if a higher bid appears or the market falls.\n\nThe price already assumes the deal closes. Bumble closed at $5.99 on 2026-11-11, within six cents of the $6.05 offer. The 52-week closing low was $2.50 on 2026-10-07, days before the deal was announced on 2026-10-13.\n\nNo closing date has been set. Bumble's SEC filing index shows no Schedule 14C information statement, no Schedule 13E-3 and no 8-K filed in November 2026 through 2026-11-12. The latest filings are the third-quarter Form 10-Q and three officers' Form 4s, all filed on 2026-11-04. The 10-Q says completion remains subject to customary closing conditions, including regulatory approvals.\n\n## Bull Case\n- **Shareholder approval is already done.** Bumble's 2026-10-13 release says Blackstone affiliates and founder Whitney Wolfe Herd approved the merger by written consent, after a special committee of independent directors recommended it. No public vote will be held.\n- **No financing condition, plus a buyer fee.** The 2026-10-13 8-K says closing does not depend on Ithaca raising financing, with Greenoaks Prime Radiant LP committing the equity. Ithaca owes a $102 million termination fee in specified cases, against Bumble's $29.0 million fee.\n- **The quarter beat sales estimates.** Benzinga reported on 2026-11-09 that third-quarter revenue of $207.091 million beat the $200.166 million estimate, with earnings per share of $0.20 in line. Net earnings were $31.6 million, according to the 10-Q, so the buyer is acquiring a profitable business.\n- **The founder rolls her stake into the buyer.** Blackstone's Schedule 13D amendment, signed 2026-10-14, says the rollover holders will transfer at least 10,900,000 Class A shares to Oak Topco, Inc., an Ithaca subsidiary. Wolfe Herd's outcome depends on the deal closing.\n- **Merger specialists hold the stock.** Glazer Capital and Paul J. Glazer reported 9,427,481 shares, 7.1% of the class, in a Schedule 13G filed 2026-10-20.\n\n## Bear Case\n- **Upside is capped at $6.05.** The 2026-11-11 close of $5.99 leaves six cents per share to the offer. Any larger S&P 500 gain before closing leaves the shares behind the index, and the merger pays no interest while pending.\n- **The business kept shrinking.** Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $207.1 million, against $246.2 million a year earlier, according to the 10-Q for the period ended 2026-09-30. Global Dating Insights reported paying users of 3.08 million on 2026-11-05.\n- **Debt would weigh on a failed deal.** The 10-Q shows term loan principal of $460.2 million and cash of $190.3 million on 2026-09-30. Bumble's release puts the offer about 138% above the unaffected 2026-10-09 close, which shows how far the shares could fall without the deal.\n- **The timeline is still open.** The 8-K requires the HSR waiting period to expire plus \"certain other approvals and clearances by government authorities,\" then a 20-day wait after the 14C is mailed. The outside date is 2027-07-12, and no 14C had been filed as of 2026-11-12.\n- **Legal scrutiny continues.** Bragar Eagel & Squire, Bleichmar Fonti & Auld and Brodsky & Smith announced investigations between 2026-10-16 and 2026-10-20. Bleichmar Fonti & Auld says two majority stockholders control 83.7% of the voting power.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\nBumble closed at $5.99 on 2026-11-11, just under the 52-week intraday high of $6.00 set on 2026-10-27. Closes from 2026-11-04 to 2026-11-11 ranged only from $5.97 to $6.00, a band pinned just below the $6.05 offer. The shares are up 120.2% over three months from the 2026-08-13 close of $2.72, almost all of it from the 2026-10-13 deal announcement.\n\nThe 50-day moving average stands at $4.19 and the 200-day at $3.45 as of 2026-11-11. Both still reflect pre-deal prices, so they say little about where the shares trade while the deal is pending. Further price movement now depends on deal news: a filing timeline, an antitrust request, a lawsuit or a competing bid.\n\nSEC Form 4 filings on 2026-11-04 show the chief financial officer, chief legal officer and chief accounting officer had 70,284, 39,899 and 10,202 shares withheld for tax at $5.97 on 2026-11-02. These are tax withholdings, not open-market sales. Blackstone's Form 4s, filed 2026-10-14, report 2,763,510 shares disposed of on 2026-10-13. Its Schedule 13D amendment says these shares settled a pre-existing forward contract at a final calculation price of $3.5923.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **~2026-11-17 (est.):** Expected filing of the Schedule 14C information statement with the joint Schedule 13E-3. These filings should list the required approvals and the expected closing period. Mailing the final 14C starts the 20-day wait required before closing.\n- **2027-07-12:** Merger agreement outside date. If the deal has not closed by then, either party may terminate. This sets the longest likely wait for the $6.05 payout.\n\n## Elapsed catalysts\n\n- **~2026-11-12 (est.):** Initial 30-day Hart-Scott-Rodino waiting period ends, if the parties filed soon after signing. If the period expires, a main closing condition is met. A second request would extend the review and push the closing further out. *(passed)*\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close above $6.83, about 14% above the 2026-11-11 close and well over the $6.05 offer, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500, or a competing bid or raised offer above $6.05 per share.\n\n## Correlation Notes\nThe shares move with the odds and timing of the deal closing, not with dating-app peers or consumer spending. A broad market decline is the main way they could beat the S&P 500, because the offer anchors the price while the index falls. A rising market, or a closing pushed into 2027, widens the lag. Merger-arbitrage holders such as Glazer Capital make the shares sensitive to any deal setback, which would send them toward pre-offer levels.", "first_seen": "2026-11-10", "last_analyzed": "2026-11-12T04:01:31+00:00", "last_synthesized": "2026-11-12", "date_modified": "2026-11-12", "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL." }