{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "BOOM",
  "name": "DMC Global Inc.",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BOOM/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BOOM.json",
  "status": "DORMANT",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a4",
    "n": 4
  },
  "current_thesis": "DMC Global's shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it: the fourth-quarter guide steps down and the $187.1 million Arcadia minority put is still open, despite a real cost-cut recovery. The fourth-quarter report, expected around 25 February 2027, settles whether margins hold.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close above $9.51, near the 52-week intraday high of $9.79 set on 2026-11-02, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong; so would fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA attributable to DMC above the $13 million top of the guide.",
  "catalyst_date": null,
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [
    "cyclical-industrials"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "caveats": [],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "DMC Global Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000034067/000003406726000052/boom-20261027.htm",
      "date": "2026-10-27"
    },
    {
      "title": "DMC Global (NASDAQ:BOOM) Stock Moved Up to Strong-Buy by Zacks Research",
      "url": "https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/analyst-dmc-global-nasdaq-boom-stock-moved-up-to-strong-buy-by-zacks-research-2026-10-30/",
      "date": "2026-10-30"
    },
    {
      "title": "DMC Global (NASDAQ:BOOM) Stock Moved Up to Strong-Buy by Wall Street Zen",
      "url": "https://marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/analyst-dmc-global-nasdaq-boom-stock-moved-up-to-strong-buy-by-wall-street-zen-2026-10-31",
      "date": "2026-10-31"
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Q3 2026 net sales were $172.8 million, up 14% year over year; gross margin was 26.9% versus 21.7% a year earlier.",
      "source": "DMC Global Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)",
      "as_of": "2026-10-27"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Q3 2026 adjusted EBITDA attributable to DMC was $13.6 million excluding $5.4 million of tariff refunds ($19.0 million including them), versus $8.6 million in Q3 2025.",
      "source": "DMC Global Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)",
      "as_of": "2026-10-27"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Q4 2026 guidance: sales of $154 million to $164 million and adjusted EBITDA attributable to DMC of $10 million to $13 million.",
      "source": "DMC Global Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)",
      "as_of": "2026-10-27"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Q3 2026 adjusted EPS was $0.48 against a $0.10 consensus estimate; Q4 sales guidance midpoint compared with a $158.25 million estimate.",
      "source": "Benzinga, 2026-10-27",
      "as_of": "2026-10-27"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Arcadia's 40% put option became exercisable on 2026-09-06 at a floor value of $187.08 million and was unexercised through the 10-Q report date.",
      "source": "DMC Global Q3 2026 Form 10-Q",
      "as_of": "2026-10-27"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Net debt was $13.7 million, the lowest since the December 2021 Arcadia acquisition; credit-facility leverage was 1.41x against a 3.0x maximum.",
      "source": "DMC Global Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "CEO James O'Leary had 21,606 shares withheld for tax at $9.35 on 2026-11-01.",
      "source": "SEC Form 4 filed 2026-11-03",
      "as_of": "2026-11-03"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [],
  "frame": null,
  "filed_numbers": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-13",
    "sector": "Basic Materials",
    "financials": {
      "status": "ok",
      "reason": null,
      "close_date": "2026-11-13",
      "latest_quarter": "2026-09-30",
      "figures": {
        "revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-10-27",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 172.8,
              "yoy_pct": 14.1
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-07-29",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 157,
              "yoy_pct": 0.9
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-04-30",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 135.6,
              "yoy_pct": -14.9
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-02-23",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 143.5,
              "yoy_pct": -5.8
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-11-04",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 151.5,
              "yoy_pct": -0.6
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-08-05",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 155.5,
              "yoy_pct": -9.2
            }
          ]
        },
        "gross_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-10-27",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 26.9
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-07-29",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 21.9
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-04-30",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 18.8
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-02-23",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 17.1
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-11-04",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 21.7
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-08-05",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 23.6
            }
          ]
        },
        "operating_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-10-27",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 8.4
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-07-29",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 3.3
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-04-30",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -3
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-02-23",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -7.8
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-11-04",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 0.4
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-08-05",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 2.5
            }
          ]
        },
        "pretax_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-27",
          "value_musd": 13.3
        },
        "net_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-27",
          "four_quarters_end": "2026-09-30",
          "value_musd": 9.7,
          "four_quarters_musd": -7
        },
        "operating_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-27",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 22.4
        },
        "capital_spending": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-27",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 9.9
        },
        "free_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-27",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 12.4
        },
        "diluted_share_change": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-27",
          "base_end": "2025-09-30",
          "pct": 1.9
        },
        "cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-27",
          "value_musd": 38
        },
        "debt": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-27",
          "value_musd": 51.7,
          "composition": "long-term debt"
        },
        "net_cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-27",
          "value_musd": -13.7
        },
        "deferred_revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-27",
          "value_musd": 24.8,
          "yoy_pct": 75.6
        },
        "backlog": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "receivables": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-27",
          "value_musd": 109.2
        },
        "inventory": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-27",
          "value_musd": 172.3
        },
        "equity": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-27",
          "value_musd": 249.9
        },
        "market_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-20",
          "basis_filed": "2026-10-27",
          "value_musd": 160.8
        },
        "enterprise_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-20",
          "basis_filed": "2026-10-27",
          "value_musd": 174.6
        },
        "ev_sales": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-20",
          "basis_filed": "2026-10-27",
          "multiple": 0.3
        },
        "ev_ebit": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-20",
          "basis_filed": "2026-10-27",
          "multiple": 38.7
        },
        "pe": {
          "status": "not meaningful"
        },
        "pb": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-20",
          "basis_filed": "2026-10-27",
          "multiple": 0.6
        },
        "fcf_yield": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-20",
          "basis_filed": "2026-10-27",
          "pct": 7.7
        }
      }
    },
    "short_interest": {
      "status": "ok",
      "settlement": "2026-10-15",
      "published": "2026-10-26",
      "short_pct_of_outstanding": 0.7,
      "days_to_cover": 1.4,
      "change_pct": -16.7
    },
    "insiders": {
      "status": "ok",
      "as_of": "2026-11-15",
      "windows": [
        {
          "days": 90,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2026-08-18",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 0,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        },
        {
          "days": 365,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2025-11-16",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 111000,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\n\nDMC Global shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it. The fourth-quarter guide is lower than the third quarter, and the 40% minority holder of Arcadia (the building-products unit) still holds a put worth at least $187.08 million. The fourth-quarter report, expected around 2027-02-25, settles whether margins hold once tariff refunds fade.\n\nThe rating is Low because the recovery is already visible in the price. The shares closed at $7.99 on 2026-11-11, 7.0% above the $7.47 close of 2026-08-13 and above both the 50-day average of $6.40 and the 200-day average of $6.54 (adjusted daily closes). The 52-week intraday high of $9.79 was set on 2026-11-02, and the last close is 18.4% below it.\n\nThe business improvement is measured. Third-quarter 2026 sales were $172.8 million, up 14% year over year, and gross margin was 26.9% against 21.7%, per the company's 2026-10-27 release. A search through 2026-11-12 found no put exercise notice, share offering or guidance change since that release.\n\n## Bull Case\n\n- **Margins expanded in every segment.** Third-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) attributable to DMC rose in all three segments, per the 2026-10-27 release. Arcadia rose to $6.8 million from $5.1 million, DynaEnergetics to $6.5 million from $4.9 million excluding refunds, and NobelClad to $4.6 million from $2.1 million.\n- **Arcadia volumes are recovering.** Arcadia building-products sales rose 25% year over year to $76.9 million in the third quarter of 2026. The Form 10-Q credits higher volumes across all product lines.\n- **NobelClad orders keep coming.** NobelClad sales rose 38% to $28.8 million in the third quarter. Backlog was $72.4 million at 2026-09-30, with a rolling 12-month book-to-bill ratio of 1.19, per the release.\n- **Debt is the lowest in years.** Net debt was $13.7 million at 2026-09-30, the lowest since the December 2021 Arcadia acquisition. Credit-facility leverage was 1.41x against a 3.0x maximum, per the company.\n- **Cash generation was strong.** Operating cash flow was $17.5 million in the third quarter of 2026. Cash rose to $38.0 million at 2026-09-30 from $31.9 million at 2025 year-end.\n- **Quantitative ratings turned positive.** MarketBeat reported on 2026-10-30 that Zacks Research moved the shares to strong buy, and on 2026-10-31 that Wall Street Zen did the same.\n\n## Bear Case\n\n- **The fourth-quarter guide steps down.** Guidance from 2026-10-27 is $154 million to $164 million in sales and $10 million to $13 million in adjusted EBITDA attributable to DMC, both below the third quarter. The company cites a planned shutdown of Arcadia's California finishing plant, softer large construction projects and rising input costs.\n- **Tariff refunds flatter the headline.** Refunds added $5.4 million to third-quarter adjusted EBITDA, taking it to $19.0 million from $13.6 million excluding them, per the 2026-10-27 release. They totalled $6.9 million over the first nine months of 2026.\n- **The Arcadia put remains open.** The put has been exercisable since 2026-09-06 at a floor value of $187.08 million, per the third-quarter Form 10-Q. Up to 80% can be paid in convertible preferred stock, against net debt of $13.7 million at 2026-09-30.\n- **Upgrades did not hold the price.** The shares traded as high as $9.79 on 2026-11-02, then closed at $7.05 on 2026-11-05 and $7.01 on 2026-11-06. A part of that drop has since been recovered, to $7.99 on 2026-11-11.\n- **Insider filings show withholding only.** The latest Form 4, filed 2026-11-03, records 21,606 shares withheld for tax by CEO James O'Leary at $9.35 on 2026-11-01. It is a tax withholding on vested stock, not an open-market purchase.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n\nThe shares have moved in a wide range since the third-quarter report. Closes were $7.90 on 2026-11-04, $7.05 on 2026-11-05, $7.01 on 2026-11-06, $8.12 on 2026-11-09, $7.77 on 2026-11-10 and $7.99 on 2026-11-11.\n\nThe 52-week closing low is $4.73, set on 2026-03-13. The last close sits above the 50-day and 200-day averages, so the shares have recovered the earnings reaction in trend terms. The 52-week intraday high of $9.79 on 2026-11-02 is the upper edge of that range.\n\nThe price already reflects the third-quarter beat and the cost-cut recovery. The remaining discount to the 2026-11-02 high is consistent with the market also weighing the guide-down and the put, which is a view, not a measured fact.\n\nAnalyst targets dated before the 2026-10-27 report are not cited here. Searches found no target change after that report.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **~2027-02-25 (est.):** Q4 and full-year 2026 report. Shows whether adjusted EBITDA lands within the $10 million to $13 million guide once the California plant shutdown is included, and whether margins hold without tariff refunds.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close above $9.51, near the 52-week intraday high of $9.79 set on 2026-11-02, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong; so would fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA attributable to DMC above the $13 million top of the guide.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n\nThe shares follow three separate end markets. Arcadia depends on construction, DynaEnergetics on North American well-completion activity, and NobelClad on its order backlog of $72.4 million at 2026-09-30. Tariff policy also matters, since refunds totalled $6.9 million in the first nine months of 2026. The Arcadia put is a company-specific variable that no sector move would explain.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-10",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-12T17:21:27+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-12",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-12",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}