{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "BOX",
  "name": "Box, Inc.",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BOX/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BOX.json",
  "status": "DORMANT",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a4",
    "n": 4
  },
  "current_thesis": "Box's AI-driven growth is improving, but at $43.55 the shares already sit above the $39.80 average analyst target and look more likely to lag the S&P 500. Box's 1 December 2026 third-quarter report settles whether revenue, bookings and guidance catch up.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close above $47.91, well over the $44.88 52-week intraday high of 2026-11-05, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; a 2026-12-01 report that raises full-year revenue and EPS guidance would also prove the call wrong.",
  "catalyst_date": "2026-12-01",
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [
    "ai-enterprise-software"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "caveats": [],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "BOX (NYSE:BOX) Price Target Raised to $60.00",
      "url": "https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/analyst-box-nyse-box-price-target-raised-to-6000-2026-11-09/",
      "date": "2026-11-09"
    },
    {
      "title": "Finviz",
      "url": "https://finviz.com/news/413168/box-sets-date-to-announce-third-quarter-fiscal-2027-financial-results",
      "date": "2026-11-02"
    },
    {
      "title": "Box Partners With NVIDIA to Deliver the Trusted Content Layer for Enterprise AI",
      "url": "https://www.stocktitan.net/news/BOX/box-partners-with-nvidia-to-deliver-the-trusted-content-layer-for-uc94dfek0gf2.html",
      "date": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "title": "Box taps Nvidia's AI models to build a rich context layer for autonomous enterprise agents",
      "url": "https://siliconangle.com/2026/11/05/box-taps-nvidias-ai-models-to-build-a-rich-context-layer-for-autonomous-enterprise-agents/",
      "date": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "title": "Box Unveils AI Agent Tools and NVIDIA Partnership at BoxWorks 2026",
      "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/box-unveils-ai-agent-tools-001432521.html",
      "date": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Box will report third-quarter fiscal 2027 results on 2026-12-01 after the market closes, with a call at 2:00 p.m. PT.",
      "source": "Box press release via Business Wire and Finviz",
      "as_of": "2026-11-02"
    },
    {
      "claim": "DA Davidson raised its Box price target to $60 from $50 and kept a Buy rating.",
      "source": "MarketBeat, 2026-11-09",
      "as_of": "2026-11-09"
    },
    {
      "claim": "MarketBeat counts 3 Buy, 4 Hold and 1 Sell ratings on Box, with an average price target of $39.80.",
      "source": "MarketBeat, 2026-11-09",
      "as_of": "2026-11-09"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Q2 FY27 revenue was $321.1M, up 9% year over year (11% in constant currency).",
      "source": "Box Q2 FY27 earnings release",
      "as_of": "2026-08-25"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Total RPO was $1.7B, up 15%; long-term RPO was $787.0M, up 18%; billings were $309.5M, up 17%.",
      "source": "Box Q2 FY27 earnings release",
      "as_of": "2026-08-25"
    },
    {
      "claim": "FY27 guidance is revenue of about $1.290B and non-GAAP EPS of about $1.54 (previously about $1.28B and $1.56); Q3 non-GAAP EPS guide about $0.39.",
      "source": "Box Q2 FY27 earnings release",
      "as_of": "2026-08-25"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Box announced Box Context Retrieval, built on NVIDIA Nemotron Retriever models, with general availability for Enterprise Advanced customers early next year.",
      "source": "Box press release via Business Wire and Stock Titan",
      "as_of": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "claim": "COO Olivia Nottebohm sold 5,293 shares at $41.58 on 2026-10-21 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan.",
      "source": "SEC Form 4 filed 2026-10-23",
      "as_of": "2026-10-21"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [],
  "frame": null,
  "filed_numbers": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-13",
    "sector": "Technology",
    "financials": {
      "status": "ok",
      "reason": null,
      "close_date": "2026-11-13",
      "latest_quarter": "2026-07-31",
      "figures": {
        "revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
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              "yoy_pct": 9.2
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              "yoy_pct": 10.7
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              "yoy_pct": 9.4
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              "filed": "2025-12-03",
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              "yoy_pct": 8.9
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              "value_musd": 276.3,
              "yoy_pct": 4.4
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        },
        "gross_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
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              "end": "2026-07-31",
              "filed": "2026-08-26",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 79.1
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        },
        "operating_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
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              "filed": "2026-08-26",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 10.2
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              "pct": 8.3
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              "restated": null,
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              "restated": null,
              "pct": 2.3
            }
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        },
        "pretax_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-07-31",
          "filed": "2026-08-26",
          "value_musd": 31.9
        },
        "net_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-07-31",
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          "four_quarters_end": "2026-07-31",
          "value_musd": 19.2,
          "four_quarters_musd": 130.7
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        "operating_cash_flow": {
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          "first_end": "2025-10-31",
          "value_musd": 394.5
        },
        "capital_spending": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "free_cash_flow": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "diluted_share_change": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-07-31",
          "filed": "2026-08-26",
          "base_end": "2025-07-31",
          "pct": -7.5
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        "cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-07-31",
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          "value_musd": 144.5
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        "debt": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-07-31",
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          "value_musd": 452.2,
          "composition": "non-current long-term debt"
        },
        "net_cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-07-31",
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          "value_musd": -307.7
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        "deferred_revenue": {
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          "filed": "2026-08-26",
          "value_musd": 595.8,
          "yoy_pct": 8.9
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        "backlog": {
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          "yoy_pct": 13.3
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          "value_musd": -351.1
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          "value_musd": 5986.1
        },
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          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-07-31",
          "basis_filed": "2026-08-26",
          "value_musd": 6293.7
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        "ev_sales": {
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          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-07-31",
          "basis_filed": "2026-08-26",
          "multiple": 5.1
        },
        "ev_ebit": {
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          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-07-31",
          "basis_filed": "2026-08-26",
          "multiple": 54.1
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          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-07-31",
          "basis_filed": "2026-08-26",
          "multiple": 45.8
        },
        "pb": {
          "status": "not meaningful"
        },
        "fcf_yield": {
          "status": "not available"
        }
      }
    },
    "short_interest": {
      "status": "ok",
      "settlement": "2026-10-15",
      "published": "2026-10-26",
      "short_pct_of_outstanding": 12.61,
      "days_to_cover": 8.2,
      "change_pct": 0.4
    },
    "insiders": {
      "status": "ok",
      "as_of": "2026-11-15",
      "windows": [
        {
          "days": 90,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2026-08-18",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 3409131.32,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        },
        {
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  },
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\n\nBox's growth is improving on its AI content platform, but at $43.55 the shares sit above the $39.80 average analyst target and look more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it over the next three months. The third-quarter report on 2026-12-01 settles it: revenue, bookings and guidance either catch up with the price or they do not.\n\nThe shares closed at $43.55 on 2026-11-11, up 29.5% over three months and 3.0% below the 52-week intraday high of $44.88 set on 2026-11-05. MarketBeat put the average analyst target at $39.80 on 2026-11-09, with 3 Buy, 4 Hold and 1 Sell ratings. The price already reflects a faster-growing Box: at $43.55 it is more than double the 52-week closing low of $21.37 on 2026-04-10, while the last reported quarter grew revenue 9%.\n\nThe last quarter was solid and moderate. Box's 2026-08-25 release showed second-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue of $321.1 million, up 9% (11% in constant currency, which strips out exchange-rate moves). Billings rose 17% to $309.5 million, and remaining performance obligations (RPO, contracted revenue not yet recognised) rose 15% to $1.7 billion.\n\nThe newest fact is a bullish analyst move. DA Davidson raised its target to $60 from $50 on 2026-11-09 and kept a Buy rating, according to MarketBeat. One firm moving a target already at the top of the range does not shift the average, and the shares closed lower that session, at $41.65. The rating is Low because the price leads the evidence: the products announced at BoxWorks on 2026-11-05 reach general availability only in early 2027. This view is wrong if the 2026-12-01 report shows constant-currency growth above 11%, RPO growth above 15% and a raised full-year guide.\n\n## Bull Case\n\n- **Growth has accelerated five quarters running.** Box's CFO said in the 2026-08-25 release that constant-currency revenue growth had accelerated for five consecutive quarters, reaching 11% in the quarter ended 2026-07-31.\n- **Forward bookings outpace revenue.** Billings rose 17% and long-term RPO rose 18% to $787.0 million in the July quarter, both faster than the 9% reported revenue growth, which points to faster revenue growth in later quarters.\n- **The top analyst target moved higher.** DA Davidson raised its target to $60 from $50 on 2026-11-09 with a Buy rating, per MarketBeat. Citigroup had earlier lifted its target to $40 from $37 with a Buy rating.\n- **NVIDIA work feeds the premium suite.** Box's 2026-11-05 release ties Nemotron models in Box AI and the coming Box Context Retrieval engine to Enterprise Advanced customers. Coverage of the March fourth-quarter report put that suite at 10% of revenue, and net retention reached 106% by the July quarter.\n- **Margins and cash flow are rising.** The non-GAAP operating margin was 29.4% in the July quarter, up from 28.6% a year earlier, and non-GAAP free cash flow rose 67% to $59.7 million, per the 2026-08-25 release.\n- **Buybacks shrink the share count.** Box repurchased 2.6 million shares for about $66 million in the July quarter and had about $378 million of authorisation left on 2026-07-31.\n\n## Bear Case\n\n- **Price sits above the average target.** The $43.55 close on 2026-11-11 is above MarketBeat's $39.80 average target of 2026-11-09. RBC reiterated Underperform with a $26 target on 2026-08-26, and UBS stayed Neutral with a $37 target the same day.\n- **Most analysts are not buyers.** MarketBeat counted 4 Hold and 1 Sell against 3 Buy ratings on 2026-11-09. Morgan Stanley holds an Equal-Weight rating with a $36 target.\n- **Earnings guidance moved down.** On 2026-08-25 Box guided third-quarter non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) to about $0.39, below the $0.40 consensus, and trimmed full-year guidance to about $1.54 from about $1.56.\n- **The agent benefits are still promises.** Box's 2026-11-05 release says customers \"will have the potential\" to see 20% better search accuracy and 90% lower token usage. It gives no pricing or revenue figure, and general availability is dated only \"early next year\".\n- **Executives sold into the rise.** SEC Form 4 filings show COO Olivia Nottebohm selling 5,293 shares at $41.58 on 2026-10-21 and CFO Dylan Smith selling 17,000 shares at $36.56 on 2026-10-09, both under Rule 10b5-1 plans. CEO Aaron Levie sold 15,000 shares at $34.24 on 2026-09-10 under a similar plan.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n\nThe shares closed at $43.55 on 2026-11-11, against a 50-day moving average of $37.68 and a 200-day moving average of $29.39 on that date. The three-month gain is 29.5%, measured from the $33.64 close on 2026-08-13.\n\nThe price has moved in a narrow range since early November. It closed at $44.05 on 2026-11-04, set the $44.88 intraday high on 2026-11-05, dipped to a $41.65 close on 2026-11-09 and recovered to $43.55 by 2026-11-11. The $44.88 high is the level the shares must clear to show fresh buying.\n\nBelow, the 50-day average at $37.68 marks the trend the shares have held since the summer rise. A fall to that level would erase most of the October and November gains. The 2026-12-01 report falls inside the next three weeks and is likely to dominate trading in the shares.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **2026-12-01:** Q3 FY27 earnings report and call, after the market closes. Tests the guide of about $329M revenue, 11% constant-currency growth and $0.39 non-GAAP EPS. Shows whether billings and RPO growth stay in the mid-teens and whether the $1.29B full-year revenue guide is raised or cut.\n- **~2027-02-15 (est.):** General availability of Box Context Retrieval, which Box dates only as early next year. Starts the period in which the NVIDIA-based engine can reach paying Enterprise Advanced customers; any pricing disclosure would show how much revenue it can carry.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close above $47.91, well over the $44.88 52-week intraday high of 2026-11-05, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; a 2026-12-01 report that raises full-year revenue and EPS guidance would also prove the call wrong.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n\nNo measured correlation figure is available for this note. Box shares exposure with enterprise software names such as Veeva, Guidewire and PTC to the debate over AI spending and software valuations, so a sector-wide de-rating could pull it down regardless of its own results.\n\nIts product case now leans on NVIDIA's models and on partners named in company news from 2026-11-02 to 2026-11-06, though no figure ties revenue to them. Currency is a separate swing factor: the gap between 9% reported and 11% constant-currency growth in the July quarter shows the size of the recent effect.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-10",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-12T16:12:21+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-12",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-12",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}