{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "BRCB",
  "name": "Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc.",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BRCB/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BRCB.json",
  "status": "DORMANT",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a7",
    "n": 7
  },
  "current_thesis": "Black Rock Coffee Bar's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500. Third-quarter same-store sales rose 5.8%, but margins narrowed and debt rose, and fourth-quarter results, expected around March 2027, will show whether margins recover.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close above $11.10, the 2026-11-09 close and the highest of the 20 sessions to that date, would show the shares leading the S&P 500. So would fourth-quarter results with an adjusted EBITDA margin above the third quarter's 12.7%.",
  "catalyst_date": null,
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [
    "consumer-discretionary-rotation"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "caveats": [],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0002068577/000162828026072726/exhibit991_q32026earningsr.htm",
      "date": "2026-11-10"
    },
    {
      "title": "Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. - Form 10-Q - FY2026",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0002068577/000162828026072840/brcb-20260930.htm",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Earnings call transcript: Black Rock Coffee Bar tops Q3 2026 EPS forecast",
      "url": "https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-black-rock-coffee-bar-tops-q3-2026-eps-forecast-93CH-5017289",
      "date": "2026-11-10"
    },
    {
      "title": "Black Rock Coffee Bar Inc (BRCB) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: 30% Revenue Growth, 15th Straight Positive Comps and Raised Store Guidance",
      "url": "https://www.gurufocus.com/news/9191910/black-rock-coffee-bar-inc-brcb-q3-2026-earnings-call-highlights-30-revenue-growth-15th-straight-positive-comps-and-raised-store-guidance",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results",
      "url": "https://www.manilatimes.net/2026/11/11/tmt-newswire/globenewswire/black-rock-coffee-bar-inc-reports-third-quarter-2026-results/2467015",
      "date": "2026-11-11"
    },
    {
      "title": "Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0002068577/000162828026055690/exhibit991_q22026earningsr.htm",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "newsfilecorp.com",
      "url": "https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/303625/Black-Rock-Coffee-Bar-Inc.-BRCB-Faces-Securities-Class-Action-Related-to-IPO-Disclosures-Regarding-Adverse-Impact-of-Sales-Transfer-Phenomenon-HBSS",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Barchart",
      "url": "https://www.barchart.com/story/news/2583400/brcb-class-action-notice-the-law-offices-of-frank-r-cruz-files-securities-fraud-lawsuit-against-black-rock-coffee-bar-inc",
      "date": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Q3 2026 revenue was $66.8 million, up 29.7%. Same-store sales rose 5.8%, against 4.2% in Q2 and 10.8% in Q3 2025, and 16.6% on a two-year basis.",
      "source": "Black Rock Coffee Bar Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)",
      "as_of": "2026-11-10"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Q3 2026 adjusted EBITDA was $8.5 million, up 22.1%, at a 12.7% margin against 13.4%. Store-level profit margin was 28.9%, against 29.6%.",
      "source": "Black Rock Coffee Bar Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)",
      "as_of": "2026-11-10"
    },
    {
      "claim": "2026 outlook: revenue of $255–257 million and adjusted EBITDA of $34–35 million reaffirmed, openings raised to 40 from 38, mid-single-digit same-store sales growth, and capital spending of $47–48 million.",
      "source": "Black Rock Coffee Bar Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)",
      "as_of": "2026-11-10"
    },
    {
      "claim": "On 2026-09-30, cash was $13.6 million and total debt $38.1 million, with $4.0 million drawn on the $25 million revolving credit facility.",
      "source": "Black Rock Coffee Bar Q3 2026 earnings release; Form 10-Q for the period ended 2026-09-30",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "The company had 211 stores at the end of Q3 2026, against 169 a year earlier, and opened 11 during the quarter.",
      "source": "Black Rock Coffee Bar Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Management expects Q4 2026 adjusted EBITDA growth above 30%, with a store-level margin similar to Q3. Labor rose 110 basis points to 22.1% of revenue in Q3.",
      "source": "Q3 2026 earnings call, 2026-11-10 (Investing.com transcript)",
      "as_of": "2026-11-10"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Q3 revenue of $66.755 million missed the $67.424 million estimate, and diluted EPS of $0.05 beat the $0.04 estimate.",
      "source": "Benzinga, 2026-11-10",
      "as_of": "2026-11-10"
    },
    {
      "claim": "After the Q3 report, DA Davidson raised its target to $13 (Buy) and Baird raised its target to $10 (Neutral).",
      "source": "Benzinga analyst headlines, 2026-11-11",
      "as_of": "2026-11-11"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [],
  "frame": null,
  "filed_numbers": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-13",
    "sector": "Consumer Cyclical",
    "financials": {
      "status": "ok",
      "reason": null,
      "close_date": "2026-11-13",
      "latest_quarter": "2026-09-30",
      "figures": {
        "revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
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              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 66.8,
              "yoy_pct": 29.7
            },
            {
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              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 63,
              "yoy_pct": 25
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              "yoy_pct": 24.2
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              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 50.4,
              "yoy_pct": null
            }
          ]
        },
        "gross_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-10",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 29
            },
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              "pct": 30.3
            },
            {
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              "pct": 29.7
            },
            {
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            },
            {
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              "pct": 29.7
            },
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              "filed": "2026-08-12",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 29.6
            }
          ]
        },
        "operating_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-10",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 4.2
            },
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              "restated": null,
              "pct": 6.5
            },
            {
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              "restated": null,
              "pct": 4.8
            },
            {
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              "restated": null,
              "pct": 3.3
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-11-12",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -12.4
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-12",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 6.5
            }
          ]
        },
        "pretax_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-10",
          "value_musd": 2
        },
        "net_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-10",
          "four_quarters_end": "2026-09-30",
          "value_musd": 1.5,
          "four_quarters_musd": 3.8
        },
        "operating_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-10",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 34.2
        },
        "capital_spending": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-10",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 64.1
        },
        "free_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-10",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": -29.9
        },
        "diluted_share_change": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-10",
          "base_end": "2025-09-30",
          "pct": 238.4
        },
        "cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
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          "value_musd": 13.6
        },
        "debt": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-10",
          "value_musd": 39,
          "composition": "long-term debt"
        },
        "net_cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-10",
          "value_musd": -25.4
        },
        "deferred_revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-10",
          "value_musd": 2,
          "yoy_pct": 55.8
        },
        "backlog": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "receivables": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-10",
          "value_musd": 5.7
        },
        "inventory": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-10",
          "value_musd": 3.6
        },
        "equity": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
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          "value_musd": 66
        },
        "market_value": {
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          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-09-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-10",
          "value_musd": 540.7
        },
        "enterprise_value": {
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          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
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          "value_musd": 566.1
        },
        "ev_sales": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-09-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-10",
          "multiple": 2.4
        },
        "ev_ebit": {
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          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
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          "basis_filed": "2026-11-10",
          "multiple": 49.8
        },
        "pe": {
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          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
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          "basis_filed": "2026-11-10",
          "multiple": 142.9
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        "pb": {
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          "basis_filed": "2026-11-10",
          "multiple": 8.2
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        "fcf_yield": {
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          "basis_filed": "2026-11-10",
          "pct": -5.5
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    "short_interest": {
      "status": "ok",
      "settlement": "2026-10-15",
      "published": "2026-10-26",
      "short_pct_of_outstanding": 3.93,
      "days_to_cover": 7,
      "change_pct": 2.3
    },
    "insiders": {
      "status": "ok",
      "as_of": "2026-11-15",
      "windows": [
        {
          "days": 90,
          "status": "ok",
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          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 0,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        },
        {
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  },
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\n\nBlack Rock Coffee Bar's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. Third-quarter sales were strong, but margins narrowed, borrowing rose and the shares fell sharply after the report. The fourth-quarter results, expected around early March 2027, will show whether margins recover as management says they will.\n\nThe company reported on 2026-11-10 that third-quarter revenue rose 29.7% to $66.8 million. Same-store sales rose 5.8%, up from 4.2% in the second quarter, per its 8-K. It reaffirmed 2026 guidance of $255–257 million in revenue and $34–35 million in adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization). It also raised planned 2026 openings to 40 from 38. Benzinga reported that revenue missed the $67.424 million consensus and that diluted earnings per share of $0.05 beat the $0.04 estimate.\n\nProfitability moved the other way. The adjusted EBITDA margin was 12.7%, against 13.4% a year earlier. The store-level profit margin was 28.9%, against 29.6%. Investing.com's account of the earnings call reports that labor rose 110 basis points to 22.1% of revenue because of new-store staffing and longer opening hours.\n\nThe shares closed at $10.57 on 2026-11-10 and at $8.76 on 2026-11-11, the first full session after the report. The rating is Low. The faster same-store growth eased the main worry about demand. The report raised new questions about margins and funding, and no scheduled event before the fourth-quarter results can settle them.\n\n## Bull Case\n\n- **Same-store sales picked up again.** Same-store sales rose 5.8% in the third quarter, 16.6% on a two-year basis, the 15th straight quarter of growth, per the company's 2026-11-10 release. Gurufocus's summary of the call puts transaction growth at 2.4%.\n- **New stores are opening faster and selling more.** The company had 211 stores on 2026-09-30, against 169 a year earlier, and opened 11 in the quarter. Per Investing.com's account of the call, 35 of the 40 planned 2026 openings were open, and the 2026 stores average about $800,000 in sales each, above the $700,000–750,000 the company expected.\n- **Management expects faster fourth-quarter profit growth.** On the 2026-11-10 call, management said it expects fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA to grow more than 30% and the quarter to have the strongest same-store sales of 2026. Beverage, food and packaging costs fell 100 basis points to 26.8% of revenue.\n- **The company is now profitable.** Third-quarter net income was $2.7 million, against a $16.2 million loss a year earlier. Nine-month net income was $7.7 million, against an $18.1 million loss, per the 2026-11-10 release.\n- **Two analysts raised targets after the report.** DA Davidson raised its target to $13 and kept a Buy rating on 2026-11-11, according to Benzinga. Baird raised its target to $10 the same day, with a Neutral rating.\n\n## Bear Case\n\n- **Margins narrowed at both levels.** Adjusted EBITDA margin fell to 12.7% from 13.4%, and store-level margin fell to 28.9% from 29.6%, per the 2026-11-10 release. Management expects the fourth-quarter store-level margin to look similar to the third quarter's.\n- **Borrowing rose as cash fell.** Cash was $13.6 million on 2026-09-30, down from $16.0 million on 2026-06-30, and total debt rose to $38.1 million from $30.6 million. The company has drawn $4.0 million of its $25 million revolving credit line, which was undrawn in June.\n- **Spending on new stores exceeds cash from operations.** The company guides 2026 capital spending to $47–48 million. Operating cash flow was $29.1 million over the first nine months, and cash fell $14.8 million over the same period, per the release.\n- **Growth is getting more expensive.** Pre-opening costs were $1.9 million, or 2.9% of third-quarter revenue. On the 2026-11-10 call, management said good store sites are getting harder to secure in California, building and labor costs are rising, and customers are highly selective about spending.\n- **The securities lawsuit is still open.** Plaintiff-firm notices dated 2026-08-17 describe a class action for 2025-09-12 to 2026-05-12. It alleges that the company understated how much new stores pulled sales from existing ones. The notices link a 30.3% one-day fall to disclosures on 2026-05-12. These are allegations, and no court has ruled on them.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n\nThe shares closed at $8.76 on 2026-11-11. That is below the 200-day moving average of $10.26 and above the 50-day moving average of $8.52, both as of that close. On 2026-11-10, before the results came out, the shares fell 4.77% to $10.57, according to Investing.com.\n\nThe last close is 9.4% above the $8.01 close of 2026-08-13 and 65.2% below the 52-week intraday high of $25.20, set on 2025-12-04. The 52-week closing low was $6.19 on 2026-06-08. The September 2025 public offering priced at $20.00, according to plaintiff-firm notices citing the offering documents.\n\nThe price already reflects doubt about margins. The shares fell from $10.57 to $8.76 in the session after a report that reaffirmed every 2026 financial target. Whether the shares hold above the 50-day average shows if that doubt deepens.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **~2027-03-03 (est.):** Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results, with the first 2027 outlook. These results show whether fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA grew more than 30% as management expects, whether margins stopped narrowing, and how the company will pay for 2027 openings, including 15–20 in California.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close above $11.10, the 2026-11-09 close and the highest of the 20 sessions to that date, would show the shares leading the S&P 500. So would fourth-quarter results with an adjusted EBITDA margin above the third quarter's 12.7%.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n\nBlack Rock Coffee Bar belongs to the consumer-discretionary group on this site, alongside the restaurant chain Portillo's. Its largest moves follow its own reports. The shares fell 30.3% on 2026-05-12, according to plaintiff-firm notices, and dropped again after the 2026-11-10 report.\n\nConsumer spending is the main shared factor. Management said on 2026-11-10 that customers are highly selective about spending. Transaction growth of 2.4% in the third quarter is the measure of demand that would weaken first if consumers cut back.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-10",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-12T03:59:59+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-12",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-12",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}