{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "BRK.B",
  "name": "Berkshire Hathaway Inc.",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BRK.B/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BRK.B.json",
  "status": "WATCHLIST",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a4",
    "n": 4
  },
  "current_thesis": "Berkshire Hathaway's class B shares look more likely to lag than lead the S&P 500: third-quarter operating earnings fell 5.8% while the shares hit a record $589.83, far above the $496–$507 Berkshire paid for buybacks. Whether repurchases continue at these prices, shown in the fourth-quarter report, settles it.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A weekly close above $600, over the record closes of 2026-11-10 to 2026-11-12, which would show the shares leading despite lower operating earnings; also a fourth-quarter report showing repurchases at or above the third quarter's $9.6 billion.",
  "catalyst_date": null,
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [
    "banks-insurers-capital-markets"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "caveats": [],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC - Form 8-K - FY2026",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001067983/000119312526452530/brka-ex99_1.htm",
      "date": "2026-11-07"
    },
    {
      "title": "Berkshire Hathaway Stock Trades at Record Levels. CEO Greg Abel Clearly Sees More Room to Run.",
      "url": "https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/11/12/berkshire-hathaway-stock-trades-at-record-levels-ceo-greg-abel-clearly-sees-more-room-to-run/",
      "date": "2026-11-12"
    },
    {
      "title": "Berkshire Kept Buying Back Stock as Shares Hit Records. Here’s What the Price It Paid Tells You.",
      "url": "https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/11/09/berkshire-kept-buying-back-stock-as-shares-hit-records-heres-what-the-price-it-paid-tells-you/",
      "date": "2026-11-09"
    },
    {
      "title": "Berkshire Hathaway’s Q3 2026 Earnings Report",
      "url": "https://www.kingswell.io/p/berkshire-hathaways-q3-2026-earnings",
      "date": "2026-11-09"
    },
    {
      "title": "Berkshire Hathaway Earnings: Cash Levels Retreat Again as Acquisitions and Share Buybacks Pick Up",
      "url": "https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/berkshire-hathaway-earnings-cash-levels-retreat-again-acquisitions-share-buybacks-pick-up",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Keefe Bruyette raises Berkshire Hathaway stock price target on earnings beat",
      "url": "https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/keefe-bruyette-raises-berkshire-hathaway-stock-price-target-on-earnings-beat-93CH-5012322",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Berkshire Hathaway Reports Nov. 7 With Its Stock at a Record. Its Cash Pile Is the Number to Watch.",
      "url": "https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/11/05/berkshire-hathaway-reports-nov-7-with-its-stock-at-a-record-its-cash-pile-is-the-number-to-watch/",
      "date": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "title": "Berkshire Has Gained 16% in About 5 Weeks",
      "url": "https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/11/05/berkshire-has-gained-16-in-about-5-weeks/",
      "date": "2026-11-05"
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Third-quarter 2026 operating earnings were $12.705 billion, down from $13.485 billion a year earlier; net earnings were $22.112 billion against $30.796 billion.",
      "source": "Berkshire Q3 2026 news release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Insurance underwriting earnings fell to $1.352 billion from $2.369 billion and insurance investment income fell to $2.734 billion from $3.181 billion in Q3 2026.",
      "source": "Berkshire Q3 2026 news release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Share repurchases were about $9.6 billion in Q3 2026, a quarterly record above $9.3 billion in Q3 2020, and about $14.4 billion in the first nine months.",
      "source": "Berkshire Q3 2026 news release; Motley Fool, 2026-11-12",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Average class B repurchase prices were $496.24 in July, $503.99 in August and $506.64 in September 2026.",
      "source": "Motley Fool, 2026-11-09, citing the Q3 2026 10-Q",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Class B shares traded at about 1.6 times book value on 2026-11-12, after often trading below 1.5 times during Q3 2026.",
      "source": "Motley Fool, 2026-11-12",
      "as_of": "2026-11-12"
    },
    {
      "claim": "GEICO's combined ratio rose to 91.4% in Q3 2026 from 84.3% a year earlier.",
      "source": "Kingswell review of the Q3 2026 report, 2026-11-09",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "KBW raised its Berkshire class A target to $765,000 from $735,000 and kept an Underperform rating.",
      "source": "Investing.com, 2026-11-09",
      "as_of": "2026-11-09"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Vice Chairman Ajit Jain sold 39,700 Berkshire shares at $503.09 on 2026-09-28.",
      "source": "SEC Form 4 filed 2026-09-29",
      "as_of": "2026-09-28"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [],
  "frame": null,
  "filed_numbers": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-13",
    "sector": "Financial Services",
    "financials": {
      "status": "ok",
      "reason": null,
      "close_date": "2026-11-13",
      "latest_quarter": "2026-09-30",
      "figures": {
        "revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
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              "filed": "2026-11-09",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 105647,
              "yoy_pct": 11.2
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-10",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 101808,
              "yoy_pct": 10
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-05-04",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 93675,
              "yoy_pct": 4.4
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-03-02",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 94232,
              "yoy_pct": -0.7
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-11-03",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 94972,
              "yoy_pct": 2.1
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-08-04",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 92515,
              "yoy_pct": -1.2
            }
          ]
        },
        "gross_margin": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "operating_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-09",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 13.5
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-10",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 15.5
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-05-04",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 14.7
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-03-02",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 13.3
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-11-03",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 16.7
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-08-04",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 14.2
            }
          ]
        },
        "pretax_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "value_musd": 27146
        },
        "net_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "four_quarters_end": "2026-09-30",
          "value_musd": 22112,
          "four_quarters_musd": 77084
        },
        "operating_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 45106
        },
        "capital_spending": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 22339
        },
        "free_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 22767
        },
        "diluted_share_change": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "value_musd": 41658
        },
        "debt": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "net_cash": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "deferred_revenue": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "backlog": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "receivables": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "inventory": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "value_musd": 35098
        },
        "equity": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "value_musd": 761368
        },
        "market_value": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "enterprise_value": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "ev_sales": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "ev_ebit": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "pe": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "pb": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "fcf_yield": {
          "status": "not available"
        }
      }
    },
    "short_interest": {
      "status": "ok",
      "settlement": "2026-10-15",
      "published": "2026-10-26",
      "short_pct_of_outstanding": null,
      "days_to_cover": 3.3,
      "change_pct": 11.3
    },
    "insiders": {
      "status": "ok",
      "as_of": "2026-11-15",
      "windows": [
        {
          "days": 90,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2026-08-18",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 0,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 1
        },
        {
          "days": 365,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2025-11-16",
          "bought_usd": 500617.48,
          "sold_usd": 0,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 1
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\nBerkshire Hathaway's class B shares look more likely to lag than lead the S&P 500 over the next three months. Third-quarter operating earnings fell 5.8%, while the shares closed at a record $589.83 on 2026-11-12, far above the prices Berkshire paid for its own stock in the third quarter. The case turns on whether repurchases continue at these prices, and the fourth-quarter report, expected around 2027-02-27, shows that.\n\nBerkshire's 2026-11-07 release showed third-quarter operating earnings of $12.705 billion, down from $13.485 billion a year earlier, as insurance underwriting and investment income both fell. Repurchases rose to about $9.6 billion, a quarterly record above the $9.3 billion of the third quarter of 2020, according to Motley Fool on 2026-11-12. Motley Fool's 2026-11-09 reading of the 10-Q puts the average class B price paid at $496.24 in July, $503.99 in August and $506.64 in September.\n\nThe price already reflects a richer valuation than the one at which Berkshire bought back stock. Motley Fool reported on 2026-11-12 that the shares trade at about 1.6 times book value, after often trading below 1.5 times during the third quarter. Morningstar said on 2026-11-08 that the shares traded at a 12% premium to its fair value estimate, which it expected to raise to about $510 per class B share.\n\nThe rating is Low because earnings are falling while the price is rising. The rally has continued since the report, so a lag over three months needs the run to stall.\n\n## Bull Case\n- **Buybacks reached a quarterly record.** Repurchases were about $9.6 billion in the third quarter of 2026 and about $14.4 billion over nine months (Berkshire release, 2026-11-07). Motley Fool reads the record on 2026-11-12 as a sign that management judged the shares below intrinsic value.\n- **October buying continued, by one count.** Kingswell's 2026-11-09 review of the 10-Q estimates about $2 billion of repurchases, roughly 2,550 class A equivalents, in the first four weeks of October.\n- **The non-insurance businesses grew.** BNSF earned $1.729 billion against $1.449 billion a year earlier, Berkshire Hathaway Energy $1.612 billion against $1.489 billion, and manufacturing, service and retailing $4.042 billion against $3.616 billion (Berkshire release, 2026-11-07).\n- **Results beat some forecasts.** Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) raised its class A target to $765,000 from $735,000 on 2026-11-09, citing operating earnings above its forecast. Morningstar called the quarter slightly above its expectations on 2026-11-08.\n- **The shares keep making records.** Daily closes show new record closes of $583.34 on 2026-11-10, $588.24 on 2026-11-11 and $589.83 on 2026-11-12. The 3-month gain to 2026-11-12 is 17.0%.\n\n## Bear Case\n- **Operating earnings fell 5.8%.** Third-quarter operating earnings dropped to $12.705 billion from $13.485 billion (Berkshire release, 2026-11-07). Net earnings fell to $22.112 billion from $30.796 billion as investment gains shrank.\n- **Insurance profits are shrinking.** Underwriting earnings fell to $1.352 billion from $2.369 billion, and insurance investment income fell to $2.734 billion from $3.181 billion (Berkshire release, 2026-11-07). Kingswell reports GEICO's combined ratio rose to 91.4% from 84.3% a year earlier.\n- **GEICO's pricing may weaken next.** Evercore ISI, in a note after the report cited by Motley Fool on 2026-11-12, called GEICO's advertising ramp \"an interesting development\" and wrote: \"We wonder if renewal pricing decreases will come next.\"\n- **The price is far above Berkshire's buyback prices.** The September class B average of $506.64 (Motley Fool, 2026-11-09) sits about $83 below the 2026-11-12 close. The Associated Press reported the rally may have led Berkshire to halt buybacks, per Motley Fool on 2026-11-09; Berkshire has not confirmed it.\n- **Analysts see the shares as full.** KBW keeps an Underperform rating despite its higher target (Investing.com, 2026-11-09). Morningstar views the shares as moderately overvalued (2026-11-08).\n- **Berkshire was a net seller of stocks.** Kingswell reports $2.4 billion of stock purchases against $2.8 billion of sales in the third quarter.\n- **An insider sold before the run.** A Form 4 shows Vice Chairman Ajit Jain sold 39,700 shares at $503.09 on 2026-09-28.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\nThe shares closed at $589.83 on 2026-11-12, after touching an intraday 52-week high of $596.92 the same day. The last close is 1.2% below that high. The 52-week closing low was $465.40 on 2026-04-22.\n\nThe autumn run is steep. The 50-day moving average stood at $527.96 and the 200-day at $499.85 on 2026-11-12, so the price is about 12% above the shorter average. The shares closed at $504.03 on 2026-08-14, the reference for the 17.0% 3-month gain.\n\nThe first sessions after the 2026-11-07 report were mixed: the shares closed at $575.25 on 2026-11-09, below the $579.09 record close of 2026-11-04, then set three record closes in a row. The levels that matter are the $596.92 intraday high above and the $579.09 close of 2026-11-04 below; a close back under the 50-day average would show the run failing. Berkshire pays no dividend, so adjusted and quoted closes match.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **~2026-11-16 (est.):** Third-quarter 2026 13F holdings filing. Shows quarter-end stock holdings, including Alphabet and Lennar, and which positions made up the $2.8 billion of third-quarter sales.\n- **~2027-02-27 (est.):** Fourth-quarter 2026 report and annual shareholder letter. Gives the October–December buyback total and prices paid at record share prices, plus GEICO margins; repurchases at or above $9.6 billion would undercut the lag call.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA weekly close above $600, over the record closes of 2026-11-10 to 2026-11-12, which would show the shares leading despite lower operating earnings; also a fourth-quarter report showing repurchases at or above the third quarter's $9.6 billion.\n\n## Correlation Notes\nBigGo Finance tied Berkshire's autumn run partly to money moving from AI and technology stocks into steadier businesses, and Motley Fool linked the rally to rotation out of AI stocks on 2026-11-05. A recovery in chip shares, measured by the iShares Semiconductor ETF, is the main outside risk to Berkshire's relative performance.\n\nThe business ties run elsewhere too. GEICO links the shares to auto-insurance pricing, alongside Progressive and Allstate. The Treasury bill balance links investment income to short-term interest rates, and that income fell 14% in the third quarter (Berkshire release, 2026-11-07). BNSF ties earnings to rail freight volumes. The Taylor Morrison purchase and the Lennar stake add homebuilding exposure, and the Alphabet stake adds a direct link to a large AI platform.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-10",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-12T23:43:39+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-12",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-12",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}