{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "BSP",
  "name": "Bending Spoons S.p.A.",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BSP/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/BSP.json",
  "status": "DORMANT",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a7",
    "n": 7
  },
  "current_thesis": "Bending Spoons' software-buying model still earns profit, but 3% organic growth and costlier debt make the shares more likely to lag the S&P 500; the 20 November 2026 Q3 report and the lock-up expiry after it settle the case.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close above $55.77, just above the 2026-10-14 intraday high of $55.76, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 again. A result that would also show it: third-quarter revenue above the $745 million top of the guide with organic growth above 3%.",
  "catalyst_date": "2026-11-20",
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [
    "m-and-a-special-situations"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "caveats": [],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "pluang.com",
      "url": "https://pluang.com/en/news-feed/bending-spoons-umumkan-hasil-q3-2026",
      "date": "2026-11-06"
    },
    {
      "title": "Bending Spoons S.p.A. - Form 6-K - FY2026",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0002004711/000200471126000011/bsp_ex99-1.htm",
      "date": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Q2 2026 revenue was $704 million, up 126% year over year; organic revenue growth was 3%; net income was $177 million.",
      "source": "Bending Spoons Q2 2026 results, Form 6-K",
      "as_of": "2026-08-13"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Net debt was $4.09 billion at a 2.4x leverage ratio, with $793 million of cash and $1.28 billion of undrawn revolving credit.",
      "source": "Bending Spoons Q2 2026 results, Form 6-K",
      "as_of": "2026-08-13"
    },
    {
      "claim": "2026 guidance is $2.78–2.82 billion of revenue and $1.46–1.51 billion of adjusted operating income; Q3 revenue guidance is $733–745 million, excluding Airtable.",
      "source": "Bending Spoons Q2 2026 results, Form 6-K",
      "as_of": "2026-08-13"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Bending Spoons completed its all-cash acquisition of Miro at a $1.355 billion enterprise value.",
      "source": "Bending Spoons press release",
      "as_of": "2026-10-26"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Bending Spoons priced $1.25 billion of 9.625% and €500 million of 8.625% senior secured notes due 2032 at par, about $1.8 billion in total, upsized from $1.5 billion.",
      "source": "Bending Spoons pricing release",
      "as_of": "2026-10-28"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Berkshire Hathaway's purchase of 10 million new shares at $33 (about $330 million) closed, raising its stake to 4% after $600 million in the July IPO.",
      "source": "Bending Spoons Form 6-K",
      "as_of": "2026-10-29"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Bending Spoons will publish Q3 2026 results before the US market opens on 2026-11-20, with a call at 8:00 a.m. Eastern.",
      "source": "Company announcement via GlobeNewswire, 2026-11-06",
      "as_of": "2026-11-06"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Bank of America maintained Underperform and cut its price target to $36; eight analysts' average target was $43 as of 2026-09-25.",
      "source": "Benzinga",
      "as_of": "2026-09-29"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [],
  "frame": null,
  "filed_numbers": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-13",
    "sector": "Technology",
    "financials": {
      "status": "not available",
      "reason": "no quarterly report in US GAAP with the SEC (a foreign filer reports on Form 20-F or 40-F)",
      "close_date": "2026-11-13",
      "latest_quarter": null,
      "figures": {}
    },
    "short_interest": {
      "status": "ok",
      "settlement": "2026-10-15",
      "published": "2026-10-26",
      "short_pct_of_outstanding": null,
      "days_to_cover": 3.8,
      "change_pct": -5.8
    },
    "insiders": {
      "status": "ok",
      "as_of": "2026-11-15",
      "windows": [
        {
          "days": 90,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2026-08-18",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 0,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        },
        {
          "days": 365,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2025-11-16",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 0,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\n\nBending Spoons' model of buying software companies and running them for profit still produces earnings, but organic growth of 3% and costlier debt leave the shares more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. The third-quarter report on 2026-11-20 and the expiry of the IPO lock-up after it settle whether the Berkshire Hathaway-driven gain holds.\n\nThe company announced on 2026-11-06 that it will publish third-quarter results before the US market opens on 2026-11-20, with a call at 8:00 a.m. Eastern. Its third-quarter guide is $733–745 million of revenue, excluding Airtable.\n\nThe shares closed at $40.50 on 2026-11-11 on adjusted daily closes, below the $45.52 close of 2026-10-30. That is under the $43 average analyst target Benzinga reported on 2026-09-25. The 3-month change is −1.0%.\n\n## Bull Case\n\n- **Profitable growth from acquired software.** The company guides 2026 revenue of $2.78–2.82 billion and adjusted operating income of $1.46–1.51 billion (2026-08-13 Form 6-K). Second-quarter net income was $177 million.\n- **Two large deals now closed.** Airtable closed on 2026-09-04 and Miro on 2026-10-26 (company releases). Bending Spoons agreed the Miro purchase at a $1.355 billion enterprise value.\n- **Debt investors took more than offered.** The 2032 senior secured notes were upsized to about $1.8 billion from a proposed $1.5 billion (company pricing release, 2026-10-28). The company says the proceeds will fund future acquisitions.\n- **Berkshire's money has arrived.** The $330 million placement at $33 closed on 2026-10-29, taking Berkshire's stake to 4% after $600 million in the July IPO (company 6-K). The shares remain above the $33 placement price and the $29 IPO price.\n\n## Bear Case\n\n- **Organic growth is only 3%.** Second-quarter revenue of $704 million rose 126% from a year earlier, almost entirely through acquisitions (2026-08-13 Form 6-K). Chief executive Luca Ferrari has said most future growth will come from more deals.\n- **New debt carries high coupons.** The 2032 notes pay 9.625% in dollars and 8.625% in euros (2026-10-28 release). They add to $4.09 billion of net debt at a 2.4x leverage ratio at the end of June, before the cash Airtable and Miro purchases (2026-08-13 Form 6-K).\n- **Analyst stance is cautious.** Bank of America kept Underperform with a $36 target on 2026-09-29, and Benzinga's average of eight analysts was $43 on 2026-09-25.\n- **New share supply is arriving.** Berkshire's 10 million new shares are issued, and some Miro holders agreed to reinvest $295 million in new shares (2026-09-10 release). Pre-IPO holders can sell for the first time once the lock-up expires, 48 hours after the third-quarter release.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n\nThe adjusted close was $40.50 on 2026-11-11, against a 50-day average of $40.63. The shares sit on that average after falling from the $45.52 close of 2026-10-30.\n\nThe 2026-10-13 close of $37.86, the last close before the Berkshire announcement, is the level that would erase the whole gain. The shares traded as high as $55.76 intraday on 2026-10-14 (Benzinga) and have not closed near it since.\n\nTwo prices anchor the share supply: Berkshire's $33 placement price and the $29 IPO price. Both are below the last close, so pre-IPO holders and Berkshire's new shares carry gains if the lock-up releases.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **2026-11-20:** Q3 2026 results, before the US market opens, with a call at 8:00 a.m. Eastern. Tests the $733–745 million revenue guide, organic growth against Q2's 3%, and leverage after the cash Airtable and Miro purchases.\n- **~2026-11-22 (est.):** Earliest IPO lock-up expiry, 48 hours after the Q3 release and no earlier than 125 days after the prospectus date. Pre-IPO holders can sell for the first time, adding share supply while the shares trade above the $33 and $29 entry prices.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close above $55.77, just above the 2026-10-14 intraday high of $55.76, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 again. A result that would also show it: third-quarter revenue above the $745 million top of the guide with organic growth above 3%.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n\nThe shares trade with sentiment toward listed software companies. Ferrari told Bloomberg on 2026-10-09 that he sees buying opportunities in the software sell-off. With 9.625% dollar notes outstanding, the shares are also exposed to high-yield credit spreads, because the cost of funding each new deal rises with them. Berkshire Hathaway headlines moved the price more than any company result this quarter: the shares jumped as much as 47.3% intraday on 2026-10-14 (Benzinga).",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-10",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-12T17:13:26+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-12",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-12",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}