{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "CART",
  "name": "Maplebear Inc.",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CART/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CART.json",
  "status": "WATCHLIST",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a5",
    "n": 5
  },
  "current_thesis": "Maplebear, Instacart's parent, looks likely to lag the S&P 500 because DoorDash's $65.00-a-share offer caps the gain while antitrust review may run into 2028. The first federal step on the merger filing settles the case.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close above $65.93, above DoorDash's $65.00 offer, which would show the market pricing a higher or competing bid and the shares leading the S&P 500; a superior proposal from another buyer would also prove the call wrong.",
  "catalyst_date": "2027-10-28",
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [
    "m-and-a-special-situations"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "caveats": [],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "DoorDash, Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001792789/000114036126041111/ef20084547_8k.htm",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "DoorDash, Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001792789/000114036126041111/ef20084547_ex99-1.htm",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Maplebear Inc. - Form 10-Q - FY2026",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001579091/000157909126000055/cart-20260930.htm",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Maplebear Inc. - Form 425 - FY2026",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001579091/000179278926000065/dashform425combined.htm",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "DoorDash, Instacart likely to get in-depth US state, federal antitrust reviews",
      "url": "https://www.mlex.com/mlex/articles/2544720/doordash-instacart-likely-to-get-in-depth-us-state-federal-antitrust-reviews",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "DoorDash's Instacart deal may draw FTC scrutiny amid cost-of-living concerns",
      "url": "https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/doordashs-instacart-deal-may-draw-ftc-scrutiny-amid-costofliving-concerns-4984745",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Trump's FTC Probes Personalized Pricing at Instacart Days After DoorDash Agreed to Buy It for $17 Billion",
      "url": "https://www.tikr.com/blog/trumps-ftc-probes-personalized-pricing-at-instacart-days-after-doordash-agreed-to-buy-it-for-17-billion",
      "date": "2026-11-01"
    },
    {
      "title": "FTC Seeks Comment on Enforcement Policy Statement Regarding Personalized Pricing",
      "url": "https://www.ftc.gov/node/335726",
      "date": "2026-08-19"
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "DoorDash agreed to acquire Instacart for $65.00 per share, about $17 billion in equity, a 26% premium to the 2026-10-22 close, with stock capped at 25% of consideration.",
      "source": "DoorDash and Instacart announcement; Maplebear Form 425, 2026-10-29",
      "as_of": "2026-10-29"
    },
    {
      "claim": "DoorDash will fund the cash portion with cash on hand and debt, backed by a 364-day bridge loan of up to $13.0 billion from JPMorgan Chase; the deal has no financing condition.",
      "source": "DoorDash Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1",
      "as_of": "2026-10-29"
    },
    {
      "claim": "DoorDash owes Instacart a $1.25 billion fee if the deal ends over unmet antitrust conditions; Instacart owes $650 million in specified cases such as a superior proposal.",
      "source": "DoorDash Form 8-K",
      "as_of": "2026-10-28"
    },
    {
      "claim": "The outside date is 2027-10-28, with up to four automatic three-month extensions if only antitrust conditions remain; holders of about 19% of voting power signed voting agreements.",
      "source": "DoorDash Form 8-K",
      "as_of": "2026-10-28"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Third-quarter GTV was $10,528M (+15%), revenue $1.09B against $939.00M a year earlier, net income $147M (+2%); repurchases were $231M and cash and equivalents $830M at 2026-09-30.",
      "source": "Maplebear Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 2026-09-30",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "The FTC sent orders on personal data, pricing and pay to nine companies including DoorDash and Instacart, with responses due within 45 days of receipt.",
      "source": "Reuters, 2026-10-28; TIKR, 2026-11-01",
      "as_of": "2026-10-28"
    },
    {
      "claim": "CEO Chris Rogers sold 24,665 shares at $60.00 on 2026-10-26 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan.",
      "source": "SEC Form 4 filed 2026-10-27",
      "as_of": "2026-10-26"
    },
    {
      "claim": "The FTC proposed an enforcement policy statement on personalized pricing and sought public comment, with an original electronic comment deadline of 2026-09-18.",
      "source": "FTC press release, 2026-08-19",
      "as_of": "2026-08-19"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [],
  "frame": null,
  "filed_numbers": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-13",
    "sector": "Industrials",
    "financials": {
      "status": "ok",
      "reason": null,
      "close_date": "2026-11-13",
      "latest_quarter": "2026-09-30",
      "figures": {
        "revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-05",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 1095,
              "yoy_pct": 16.6
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-07",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 1043,
              "yoy_pct": 14.1
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-05-07",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 1019,
              "yoy_pct": 13.6
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-02-26",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 992,
              "yoy_pct": 12.3
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-11-10",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 939,
              "yoy_pct": 10.2
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-08-08",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 914,
              "yoy_pct": 11.1
            }
          ]
        },
        "gross_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-05",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 71.8
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-07",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 72
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-05-07",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 72.4
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-02-26",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 72.3
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-11-10",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 73.7
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-08-08",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 74.2
            }
          ]
        },
        "operating_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-05",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 15.9
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-07",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 13.7
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-05-07",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 17.9
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-02-26",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 9.8
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-11-10",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 17.7
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-08-08",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 13.6
            }
          ]
        },
        "pretax_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2025-12-31",
          "filed": "2026-02-26",
          "value_musd": 109
        },
        "net_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "four_quarters_end": "2026-09-30",
          "value_musd": 147,
          "four_quarters_musd": 483
        },
        "operating_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 1268
        },
        "capital_spending": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 58
        },
        "free_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 1210
        },
        "diluted_share_change": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "base_end": "2025-09-30",
          "pct": -12.6
        },
        "cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 927
        },
        "debt": {
          "status": "none reported"
        },
        "net_cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 927,
          "note": "no debt reported"
        },
        "deferred_revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 221,
          "yoy_pct": 0.9
        },
        "backlog": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "receivables": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 1052
        },
        "inventory": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "equity": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 2567
        },
        "market_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 13930.4
        },
        "enterprise_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 13003.4,
          "note": "no debt reported"
        },
        "ev_sales": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-05",
          "multiple": 3.1,
          "note": "no debt reported"
        },
        "ev_ebit": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-05",
          "multiple": 21.8,
          "note": "no debt reported"
        },
        "pe": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-05",
          "multiple": 28.8
        },
        "pb": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-05",
          "multiple": 5.4
        },
        "fcf_yield": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-05",
          "pct": 8.7
        }
      }
    },
    "short_interest": {
      "status": "ok",
      "settlement": "2026-10-15",
      "published": "2026-10-26",
      "short_pct_of_outstanding": 9.76,
      "days_to_cover": 7.3,
      "change_pct": 5.1
    },
    "insiders": {
      "status": "ok",
      "as_of": "2026-11-15",
      "windows": [
        {
          "days": 90,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2026-08-18",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 17008632.99,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        },
        {
          "days": 365,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2025-11-16",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 34120092.9,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\n\nMaplebear, the parent of Instacart, looks more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it over the next three months. DoorDash's signed $65.00-a-share offer caps the gain. An antitrust review that the companies expect to run to late 2027 or the first half of 2028 sets the timing. The first federal step on the merger filing, either a cleared waiting period or a request for more information, settles the case.\n\nThe shares closed at $58.87 on 2026-11-11, below the $65.00 offer. The market is pricing a long wait and a real chance that regulators block the deal. Searches of news coverage through 2026-11-12 found no report of a Hart-Scott-Rodino (HSR) filing date, a second request or a lawsuit. Company news since 2026-11-06 covers only commercial items, such as the Provi beverage-restocking partnership announced on 2026-11-12.\n\nThe rating is Low because the most likely path over 63 sessions is a price held below $65.00 with no regulatory decision. That path gives the shares little room to beat a rising index. A regulatory surprise in either direction would move the shares far more than any grocery result.\n\n## Bull Case\n- **The price is fixed and mostly cash.** Holders can choose $65.00 in cash, 0.3372 DoorDash shares, or $48.75 in cash plus 0.0843 DoorDash shares, according to the 2026-10-29 announcement and Maplebear's Form 425. Stock is capped at 25% of total consideration, and the companies put the premium at 26% over the 2026-10-22 close.\n- **DoorDash pays heavily if regulators block it.** DoorDash's 8-K dated 2026-10-28 says it owes Instacart $1.25 billion if the deal ends over unmet antitrust conditions or a final antitrust court order. Instacart's own break fee is $650 million, payable in specified cases such as a superior proposal.\n- **Financing and part of the vote are lined up.** The deal has no financing condition, and DoorDash's 2026-10-29 release cites a 364-day bridge loan of up to $13.0 billion from JPMorgan Chase. Holders of about 19% of Instacart's voting power signed agreements to vote in favor, per the 8-K.\n- **The standalone business is growing.** Instacart's 10-Q for the quarter ended 2026-09-30 shows gross transaction value (GTV, the total value of orders) up 15% to $10,528M and revenue of $1.09B against $939.00M a year earlier. Net income rose 2% to $147M, and the quarter included $231M of share repurchases.\n- **The buyer is in strong shape.** DoorDash reported third-quarter revenue of about $4.6 billion, up 34%, and net income of $466 million, up 91%, in its 2026-10-29 release. It targets at least $500 million of annual net synergies over several years.\n\n## Bear Case\n- **Closing could take two years.** The companies expect to close at the end of 2027 or in the first half of 2028. DoorDash's 8-K sets an outside date of 2027-10-28, with up to four automatic three-month extensions if only antitrust approvals remain. Approvals are needed in the US, Canada and Israel.\n- **An in-depth review looks likely.** MLex reported on 2026-10-30 that the deal is likely to draw in-depth federal and state antitrust investigations. Reuters reported that the deal may draw Federal Trade Commission (FTC) scrutiny amid cost-of-living concerns. DoorDash's 2021 talks to buy Instacart collapsed partly over antitrust concerns, per TIKR.\n- **The FTC is already examining pricing.** On 2026-10-28 the FTC sent information orders on personalized pricing and pay-setting to nine companies, including DoorDash and Instacart, per Reuters and TIKR. The inquiry is separate from the merger, but it covers practices a merger review would also examine. The agency proposed a personalized-pricing enforcement policy on 2026-08-19.\n- **Advocacy groups want the deal blocked.** The American Economic Liberties Project and Groundwork Collaborative urged the FTC on 2026-10-29 to block the merger. The first group also called on state attorneys general to act.\n- **Executives sold near the high.** SEC Form 4 filings show CEO Chris Rogers sold 24,665 shares at $60.00 on 2026-10-26 and 24,060 at $55.04 on 2026-10-23. CFO Emily Reuter sold 50,000 at $55.00 on 2026-10-23. All of the sales were under pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 plans.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\nThe $65.00 offer is the ceiling the case turns on. Since the deal was signed, the shares have traded in a narrow band below it. Adjusted daily closes show $59.22 on 2026-11-04, $57.79 on 2026-11-05 and $58.87 on 2026-11-11. The 52-week intraday high of $62.00 came on 2026-10-26, the day of the CEO's plan sale at $60.00. The last close is 5.0% below that high.\n\nThe 3-month change is 17.6%, from a $50.08 close on 2026-08-13, and most of that gain is the deal premium. As of 2026-11-11, the 50-day moving average is $50.27 and the 200-day moving average is $44.09. Both sit well under the price, which shows how far the shares have moved from where they traded before the deal. The 52-week closing low is $32.93, set on 2026-02-11. If the deal were blocked, the moving averages would be a better guide to standalone value than the offer.\n\nThe third-quarter report came on 2026-10-29, so no quarterly report falls in the next 30 days. The 10-Q counts 236,630,090 shares outstanding on 2026-10-30. That count includes the 5,833,333 shares from the 2026-09-25 preferred conversion.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **~2026-11-21 (est.):** Reported close of the comment period on the FTC's proposed personalized-pricing policy; the FTC's own page gave 2026-09-18. Shows how far the agency's pricing concerns reach before it acts on the merger, since pricing is central to criticism of the deal.\n- **~2026-12-12 (est.):** First responses due to the FTC's 2026-10-28 information orders, 45 days after receipt. Puts Instacart's and DoorDash's pricing and pay practices in front of the agency that may also review the merger.\n- **2027-10-28:** Outside date under the DoorDash merger agreement. Marks when either side may end the deal; automatic three-month extensions apply only if antitrust approvals are the sole open condition.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close above $65.93, above DoorDash's $65.00 offer, which would show the market pricing a higher or competing bid and the shares leading the S&P 500; a superior proposal from another buyer would also prove the call wrong.\n\n## Correlation Notes\nThe shares now trade on deal odds more than on grocery delivery results. Because of the fixed $65.00 ceiling, a broad market rally adds little, and a broad decline should also move the shares less than the index. A run of closes that track the S&P 500 on days without deal news would contradict that view. The six sessions from 2026-11-04 to 2026-11-11 are too few to measure it.\n\nDoorDash is the one direct link. The 0.3372-share stock election ties part of the payout to DoorDash's share price, and stock can make up as much as 25% of consideration. Uber's delivery arm is the competitor to watch in the review. Benzinga reported strong Delivery growth in Uber's third-quarter results on 2026-11-05, which the merging companies could cite as evidence that competition continues.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-10",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-12T16:00:38+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-12",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-12",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}