{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "CHPT",
  "name": "ChargePoint Holdings, Inc.",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CHPT/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CHPT.json",
  "status": "WATCHLIST",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a4",
    "n": 4
  },
  "current_thesis": "ChargePoint shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 after a 102% three-month rally that outran a business guiding third-quarter revenue below its second quarter. ChargePoint's early-December third-quarter report shows whether revenue and margins can support the price.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close above $14.89, about 19% above the 2026-11-11 close of $12.51, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. Third-quarter revenue above the $115 million top of guidance with non-GAAP gross margin at 38% or higher would also show the call wrong.",
  "catalyst_date": null,
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [
    "solar-clean-energy"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "caveats": [],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "SEC EDGAR",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001777393/000177739326000061/chpt8-kerfy2027q2exx991.htm",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "ChargePoint: Q2 Fiscal 2027 Revenue Rises 18% To $116.1 Million As Non-GAAP Gross Margin Hits Record 38%",
      "url": "https://pulse2.com/chargepoint-q2-fiscal-2027-revenue-rises-18-to-116-1-million-as-non-gaap-gross-margin-hits-record-38/",
      "date": "2026-09-03"
    },
    {
      "title": "EVgo Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001821159/000182115926000032/exhibit991evgoearningsrele.htm",
      "date": "2026-11-09"
    },
    {
      "title": "EVgo Soars 48% on $2-a-Share Buyout Offer From LS Power; ChargePoint Jumps 10%, Blink Charging Rallies 7%",
      "url": "https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/11/02/evgo-soars-48-on-2-a-share-buyout-offer-from-ls-power-chargepoint-jumps-10-blink-charging-rallies-7/",
      "date": "2026-11-02"
    },
    {
      "title": "MarketBeat",
      "url": "https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/CHPT/price-target",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "ChargePoint (CHPT) Shares Rally Near 52-Week High Ahead of Q3 Earnings",
      "url": "https://www.gurufocus.com/news/9170525/chargepoint-chpt-shares-rally-near-52week-high-ahead-of-q3-earnings",
      "date": "2026-11-04"
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Second-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue was $116.1 million, up 18% from $98.6 million, above the $100–110 million guidance range.",
      "source": "ChargePoint Q2 FY2027 results, 8-K Exhibit 99.1",
      "as_of": "2026-09-02"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Non-GAAP gross margin was a record 38%, including a 4-percentage-point benefit from tariff refunds; adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed 78% to $4.8 million.",
      "source": "ChargePoint Q2 FY2027 results, 8-K Exhibit 99.1",
      "as_of": "2026-09-02"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash totalled $95.7 million.",
      "source": "ChargePoint Q2 FY2027 results, 8-K Exhibit 99.1",
      "as_of": "2026-07-31"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Third-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue guidance is $105 million to $115 million; management said elevated home-charger sales will not recur.",
      "source": "ChargePoint Q2 FY2027 results and earnings call",
      "as_of": "2026-09-02"
    },
    {
      "claim": "EVgo third-quarter total revenue was $91.4 million, down 1%; charging network revenue rose 29% to $71.8 million; net loss widened to $49.2 million from $28.4 million.",
      "source": "EVgo Q3 2026 results, 8-K Exhibit 99.1",
      "as_of": "2026-11-09"
    },
    {
      "claim": "EVgo's board formed a special committee to review LS Power's $2-per-share proposal and said no decisions have been made.",
      "source": "EVgo Q3 2026 results, 8-K Exhibit 99.1",
      "as_of": "2026-11-09"
    },
    {
      "claim": "ChargePoint's CFO, chief accounting officer, general counsel and chief customer experience officer reported open-market sales at $9.86 per share.",
      "source": "SEC Form 4 filings dated 2026-09-22",
      "as_of": "2026-09-22"
    },
    {
      "claim": "MarketBeat consensus price target is $6.93 from 11 analysts (high $8.50, low $5.00), with 3 sell and 8 hold ratings.",
      "source": "MarketBeat CHPT price-target page",
      "as_of": "2026-11-08"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [],
  "frame": null,
  "filed_numbers": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-13",
    "sector": "Industrials",
    "financials": {
      "status": "ok",
      "reason": null,
      "close_date": "2026-11-13",
      "latest_quarter": "2026-07-31",
      "figures": {
        "revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-07-31",
              "filed": "2026-09-04",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 116.1,
              "yoy_pct": 17.7
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-04-30",
              "filed": "2026-06-08",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 101.8,
              "yoy_pct": 4.3
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-01-31",
              "filed": "2026-04-02",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 109.3,
              "yoy_pct": 7.3
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-10-31",
              "filed": "2025-12-05",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 105.7,
              "yoy_pct": 6.1
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-07-31",
              "filed": "2025-09-08",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 98.6,
              "yoy_pct": -9.2
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-04-30",
              "filed": "2025-06-06",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 97.6,
              "yoy_pct": -8.8
            }
          ]
        },
        "gross_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-07-31",
              "filed": "2026-09-04",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 36.4
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-04-30",
              "filed": "2026-06-08",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 29.1
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-01-31",
              "filed": "2026-04-02",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 31.5
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-10-31",
              "filed": "2025-12-05",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 30.7
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-07-31",
              "filed": "2025-09-08",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 31.2
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-04-30",
              "filed": "2025-06-06",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 28.7
            }
          ]
        },
        "operating_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-07-31",
              "filed": "2026-09-04",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -29.3
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-04-30",
              "filed": "2026-06-08",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -46.3
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-01-31",
              "filed": "2026-04-02",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -48.5
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-10-31",
              "filed": "2025-12-05",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -42
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-07-31",
              "filed": "2025-09-08",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -59.8
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-04-30",
              "filed": "2025-06-06",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -55.1
            }
          ]
        },
        "pretax_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-07-31",
          "filed": "2026-09-04",
          "value_musd": -34.1
        },
        "net_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-07-31",
          "filed": "2026-09-04",
          "four_quarters_end": "2026-07-31",
          "value_musd": -35.6,
          "four_quarters_musd": -175.7
        },
        "operating_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-07-31",
          "filed": "2026-09-04",
          "first_end": "2025-10-31",
          "value_musd": -64.5
        },
        "capital_spending": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-07-31",
          "filed": "2026-09-04",
          "first_end": "2025-10-31",
          "value_musd": 3.9
        },
        "free_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-07-31",
          "filed": "2026-09-04",
          "first_end": "2025-10-31",
          "value_musd": -68.4
        },
        "diluted_share_change": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-07-31",
          "filed": "2026-09-04",
          "base_end": "2025-07-31",
          "pct": 13.5
        },
        "cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-07-31",
          "filed": "2026-09-04",
          "value_musd": 95.3
        },
        "debt": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-07-31",
          "filed": "2026-09-04",
          "value_musd": 236.9,
          "composition": "non-current long-term debt plus current maturities"
        },
        "net_cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-07-31",
          "filed": "2026-09-04",
          "value_musd": -141.6
        },
        "deferred_revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-07-31",
          "filed": "2026-09-04",
          "value_musd": 248.6,
          "yoy_pct": -0.7
        },
        "backlog": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-01-31",
          "filed": "2026-04-02",
          "value_musd": 260.3,
          "yoy_pct": 1
        },
        "receivables": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-07-31",
          "filed": "2026-09-04",
          "value_musd": 86.7
        },
        "inventory": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-07-31",
          "filed": "2026-09-04",
          "value_musd": 179.5
        },
        "equity": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-07-31",
          "filed": "2026-09-04",
          "value_musd": -36.1
        },
        "market_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-08-28",
          "basis_filed": "2026-09-04",
          "value_musd": 313.3
        },
        "enterprise_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-08-28",
          "basis_filed": "2026-09-04",
          "value_musd": 455
        },
        "ev_sales": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-08-28",
          "basis_filed": "2026-09-04",
          "multiple": 1.1
        },
        "ev_ebit": {
          "status": "not meaningful"
        },
        "pe": {
          "status": "not meaningful"
        },
        "pb": {
          "status": "not meaningful"
        },
        "fcf_yield": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-08-28",
          "basis_filed": "2026-09-04",
          "pct": -21.8
        }
      }
    },
    "short_interest": {
      "status": "ok",
      "settlement": "2026-10-15",
      "published": "2026-10-26",
      "short_pct_of_outstanding": 22.99,
      "days_to_cover": 5.8,
      "change_pct": 21.5
    },
    "insiders": {
      "status": "ok",
      "as_of": "2026-11-15",
      "windows": [
        {
          "days": 90,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2026-08-18",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 164484.52,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        },
        {
          "days": 365,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2025-11-16",
          "bought_usd": 250162.98,
          "sold_usd": 507166.59,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\n\nChargePoint shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. A 102.1% three-month rally to a $12.51 close on 2026-11-11 has run ahead of a business that guides third-quarter revenue below its second quarter. The third-quarter report, expected in early December, shows whether revenue and margins can carry the price.\n\nThe turnaround itself is real. Revenue rose 18% to $116.1 million in the quarter ended 2026-07-31 and beat the top of guidance, and the adjusted loss before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (adjusted EBITDA) narrowed 78% to $4.8 million (company results, 2026-09-02). The latest jump came from somewhere else: LS Power's $2-per-share proposal for rival EVgo on 2026-11-02, which lifted ChargePoint about 10% that day (24/7 Wall St.).\n\nThe rating is Low because the price now leans on momentum and a takeover read-across rather than on ChargePoint's own numbers. The shares kept rising after EVgo's 2026-11-09 report showed total revenue down 1% and a wider net loss. That leaves the December report to justify a price well above every published analyst target.\n\n## Bull Case\n\n- **Second quarter beat the top of guidance.** Revenue of $116.1 million for the quarter ended 2026-07-31 topped the $100–110 million guided range and rose 18% from $98.6 million a year earlier (company results, 2026-09-02).\n- **Losses are shrinking fast.** The adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed 78% to $4.8 million, and the net loss under generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) fell to $35.6 million in the same quarter (company results, 2026-09-02).\n- **Hardware sales led the quarter.** Networked charging systems revenue rose 25% to $62.9 million, and subscription revenue rose 10% to $43.7 million (company results, 2026-09-02).\n- **New products and channels are in place.** ChargePoint began early-access shipments of its Express Solo fast charger and expanded its Eaton partnership (company results, 2026-09-02). It launched a European channel partner programme for resellers on 2026-10-27 (Benzinga).\n- **Charging networks are attracting buyers.** LS Power's $2 cash proposal for EVgo was a 59% premium (Schedule 13D, reported 2026-11-02). EVgo's charging network revenue rose 29% to $71.8 million in the quarter ended 2026-09-30 (EVgo 8-K, 2026-11-09).\n\n## Bear Case\n\n- **Guidance points below the second quarter.** Third-quarter revenue guidance is $105–115 million, with a $110 million midpoint under the $116.1 million second quarter. Management said elevated North American home-charger sales that helped the second quarter will not recur (company results, 2026-09-02).\n- **One-off refunds flattered margins.** Tariff refunds added 4 percentage points to the record 38% non-GAAP gross margin in the second quarter (company results, 2026-09-02).\n- **The cash cushion is thin.** Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash were $95.7 million on 2026-07-31, against a quarterly GAAP net loss of $35.6 million (company results, 2026-09-02).\n- **Analyst targets sit far below the price.** MarketBeat listed a $6.93 consensus target from 11 analysts on 2026-11-08, with a high of $8.50 and three sell and eight hold ratings. UBS raised its target to $9 from $8 on 2026-09-22 and kept a Neutral rating (Benzinga).\n- **The closest peer just reported weakness.** EVgo's third-quarter total revenue fell 1% to $91.4 million and its net loss widened to $49.2 million from $28.4 million (EVgo 8-K, 2026-11-09). Its special committee said no decision has been made on the LS Power proposal.\n- **Officers sold near $10.** The chief financial officer, chief accounting officer, general counsel and chief customer experience officer reported open-market sales at $9.86 on 2026-09-22 (SEC Form 4 filings).\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n\nThe shares closed at $12.51 on 2026-11-11 and touched a 52-week intraday high of $12.97 the same day. The 52-week closing low was $4.51 on 2026-03-30, and the 3-month reference close was $6.19 on 2026-08-13. On adjusted daily closes, the 50-day moving average is $9.11 and the 200-day is $6.86 as of 2026-11-11, both far below the price.\n\nThe shares traded at $10.51 on 2026-11-02, the day of the EVgo bid (24/7 Wall St.). That level marks where the bid-driven move began; a close back under it would mean the market has priced out the takeover read-across. The latest gains came without a company headline: the close rose from $11.59 on 2026-11-06 to $12.39 on 2026-11-09, the day EVgo reported. GuruFocus put ChargePoint's market value at about $298 million on 2026-11-04, so modest flows move the price far in either direction.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **~2026-12-03 (est.):** ChargePoint third-quarter fiscal 2027 results (date not yet announced by the company). Shows whether revenue holds inside or beats the $105–115 million guidance, whether gross margin holds near 38% without tariff refunds, and how fast cash is being used against the $95.7 million of 2026-07-31.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close above $14.89, about 19% above the 2026-11-11 close of $12.51, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. Third-quarter revenue above the $115 million top of guidance with non-GAAP gross margin at 38% or higher would also show the call wrong.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n\nChargePoint trades with the EV-charging group. On 2026-11-02 EVgo rose about 48%, ChargePoint about 10% and Blink Charging about 7% on one headline (24/7 Wall St.). A rejection or withdrawal of the LS Power proposal for EVgo would likely hit all three. ChargePoint rose on 2026-11-09 even as EVgo reported a revenue decline, which shows the shares are now running on their own momentum as much as on the EVgo bid. ChargePoint's own demand depends on EV adoption and on sales of home, fleet and public chargers, so its December report matters more than peer moves.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-10",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-12T03:57:18+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-12",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-12",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}