{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "CLVT",
  "name": "Clarivate Plc",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CLVT/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CLVT.json",
  "status": "WATCHLIST",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a4",
    "n": 4
  },
  "current_thesis": "Clarivate's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months: the $533 million debt tender that settled on 13 November 2026 is priced in, and 1.3% organic recurring growth is too slow to lift the stock before the 2027 guidance due in February 2027.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A weekly close above $2.39, the 2026-11-10 close and the top of the post-tender rally, which would show the shares leading; or a 2027 outlook projecting recurring organic revenue growth above 2.50%, the top of the fourth-quarter 2026 guide.",
  "catalyst_date": "2026-11-18",
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [
    "ai-enterprise-software"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "caveats": [],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "CLARIVATE PLC - Form 8-K - FY2026",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001764046/000095010326017318/dp256733_ex9901.htm",
      "date": "2026-11-12"
    },
    {
      "title": "SEC EDGAR",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001764046/000176404626000125/ex991q32026earningsrelease.htm",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "SEC EDGAR",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001764046/000095010326017266/dp256593_ex9901.htm",
      "date": "2026-11-10"
    },
    {
      "title": "Clarivate to Present at the RBC Capital Markets Global Technology, Internet, Media and Telecommunications Conference on November 18",
      "url": "https://www.prnewswire.co.uk/news-releases/clarivate-to-present-at-the-rbc-capital-markets-global-technology-internet-media-and-telecommunications-conference-on-november-18-302935902.html",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Clarivate (CLVT) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript",
      "url": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/11/03/clarivate-clvt-q3-2026-earnings-call-transcript/",
      "date": "2026-11-03"
    },
    {
      "title": "Clarivate (NYSE:CLVT) Stock Gets Price Target Cut from The Goldman Sachs Group",
      "url": "https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/analyst-clarivate-nyse-clvt-stock-gets-price-target-cut-from-the-goldman-sachs-group-2026-11-05/",
      "date": "2026-11-05"
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Third-quarter 2026 continuing-operations revenue was $481.6 million against $530.3 million a year earlier; organic revenue rose 0.4%, organic recurring revenue 1.3%, and organic transactional revenue fell 12.4%.",
      "source": "Third-quarter 2026 earnings release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)",
      "as_of": "2026-11-03"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Organic annual contract value rose 1.8% from a year earlier.",
      "source": "Third-quarter 2026 earnings release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Clarivate's 2026 guidance: revenue $1,965–1,985 million, adjusted EBITDA $865–885 million, free cash flow $320–340 million, adjusted EPS $0.73–$0.77.",
      "source": "Third-quarter 2026 earnings release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)",
      "as_of": "2026-11-03"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Third-quarter 2026 net loss was $80.8 million ($0.13 per share), including a $62.2 million non-cash goodwill impairment on the life-sciences unit.",
      "source": "Third-quarter 2026 earnings release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)",
      "as_of": "2026-11-03"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Total debt was $4,176.1 million and cash $257.0 million.",
      "source": "Third-quarter 2026 earnings release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "The Life Sciences & Healthcare sale closed for net cash proceeds of $488.4 million.",
      "source": "Third-quarter 2026 earnings release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)",
      "as_of": "2026-10-06"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Holders tendered $611.5 million of 2028 notes and $259.3 million of 2029 notes; Clarivate accepted $415 million and $118 million at $979.08 and $928.75 per $1,000, with proration factors of 67.9% and 45.5%, and settled on 2026-11-13.",
      "source": "Clarivate tender final results release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)",
      "as_of": "2026-11-12"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Goldman Sachs cut its Clarivate price target to $2.30 from $2.60 and kept a Neutral rating.",
      "source": "Goldman Sachs note reported by MarketBeat and Benzinga",
      "as_of": "2026-11-05"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [],
  "frame": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-14",
    "business": "Clarivate sells subscription research and intellectual-property data, including Web of Science for universities and governments and Derwent and CompuMark for patent and trademark professionals. It earns money mostly from recurring subscriptions, plus transactional sales. Revenue from continuing operations was $482 million in the quarter to 2026-09-30 (10-Q filed 2026-11-03).",
    "change": {
      "now": "On 2026-11-12 Clarivate reported accepting $415 million of its 2028 notes and $118 million of its 2029 notes in its tender offers, out of $611.5 million and $259.3 million offered; the purchase settled on 2026-11-13.",
      "next": "Buying debt back below par lowers interest costs. Management said on 2026-11-03 that cash interest falls by about $25 million in 2027 and that free cash flow should grow 10%–15%, against $4,176 million of debt at 2026-09-30.",
      "linked": "Data integrations with Microsoft (MSFT) Copilot on 2026-11-02 and Anthropic's Claude on 2026-11-11 put Clarivate's patent and trademark data inside AI assistants that customers also use for research."
    },
    "priced_in": "At the 2026-11-13 close (filed inputs to 2026-11-03) the shares trade at 0.3 times book with a 21.6% free-cash-flow yield and an enterprise value of $5,410 million; EV/sales is not available and P/E not meaningful. The price assumes free cash flow near the $322 million of the four quarters to 2026-09-30 goes mainly to debt while revenue, down 9.2% in the September quarter, does not grow.",
    "links": {
      "customers": [],
      "suppliers": [],
      "competitors": []
    }
  },
  "filed_numbers": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-13",
    "sector": "Technology",
    "financials": {
      "status": "ok",
      "reason": null,
      "close_date": "2026-11-13",
      "latest_quarter": "2026-09-30",
      "figures": {
        "revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-03",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 481.6,
              "yoy_pct": -9.2
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-07-29",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 587.3,
              "yoy_pct": -5.5
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-04-29",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 585.5,
              "yoy_pct": -1.4
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-10-29",
              "restated": "2026-11-03",
              "value_musd": 530.3,
              "yoy_pct": -14.8
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-07-30",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 621.4,
              "yoy_pct": -4.4
            }
          ]
        },
        "gross_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-03",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 71.1
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-07-29",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 68.4
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-04-29",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 67.2
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-10-29",
              "restated": "2026-11-03",
              "pct": 66.3
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-07-30",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 67.2
            }
          ]
        },
        "operating_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-03",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 8.3
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-07-29",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -34.1
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-04-29",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 5.2
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-10-29",
              "restated": "2026-11-03",
              "pct": 8.7
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-07-30",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 1.1
            }
          ]
        },
        "pretax_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-03",
          "value_musd": -20.9
        },
        "net_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-03",
          "four_quarters_end": "2026-09-30",
          "value_musd": -80.8,
          "four_quarters_musd": -386.5
        },
        "operating_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-03",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 558.9
        },
        "capital_spending": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-03",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 236.6
        },
        "free_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-03",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 322.3
        },
        "diluted_share_change": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-03",
          "base_end": "2025-09-30",
          "pct": -4.3
        },
        "cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-03",
          "value_musd": 257
        },
        "debt": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-03",
          "value_musd": 4176.1,
          "composition": "long-term debt and finance leases"
        },
        "net_cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-03",
          "value_musd": -3919.1
        },
        "deferred_revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-03",
          "value_musd": 780.4,
          "yoy_pct": -12.4
        },
        "backlog": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "receivables": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-03",
          "value_musd": 747.4
        },
        "inventory": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "equity": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-03",
          "value_musd": 4514.4
        },
        "market_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-09-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-03",
          "value_musd": 1491
        },
        "enterprise_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-09-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-03",
          "value_musd": 5410.1
        },
        "ev_sales": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "ev_ebit": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "pe": {
          "status": "not meaningful"
        },
        "pb": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-09-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-03",
          "multiple": 0.3
        },
        "fcf_yield": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-09-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-03",
          "pct": 21.6
        }
      }
    },
    "short_interest": {
      "status": "ok",
      "settlement": "2026-10-15",
      "published": "2026-10-26",
      "short_pct_of_outstanding": 7.31,
      "days_to_cover": 13.1,
      "change_pct": -2.9
    },
    "insiders": {
      "status": "ok",
      "as_of": "2026-11-15",
      "windows": [
        {
          "days": 90,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2026-08-18",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 0,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        },
        {
          "days": 365,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2025-11-16",
          "bought_usd": 1671500,
          "sold_usd": 5988892.4,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\nClarivate's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. The debt reduction paid for by the life-sciences sale is complete and already in the price. Organic recurring revenue grew 1.3% in the third quarter of 2026, which is too slow to lift the shares before the 2027 outlook. The company expects to give that outlook in February 2027.\n\nThe bond tender settled on 2026-11-13. On 2026-11-12 Clarivate said holders had offered $611.5 million of its 3.875% notes due 2028 and $259.3 million of its 4.875% notes due 2029. It accepted $415 million and $118 million and paid $979.08 and $928.75 per $1,000 of principal. More notes were offered than the caps allowed, so the company took only 67.9% of the 2028 notes and 45.5% of the 2029 notes tendered.\n\nThe shares closed at $2.33 on 2026-11-13, up 23.3% over three months. That is close to Goldman Sachs's $2.30 target of 2026-11-05. The rating is Low because the buyback has been public since the tender launched on 2026-11-04. The next fact that could change how the market values the business, the 2027 guidance, arrives at or after the end of the three-month window. Chief Executive Matti Shem Tov and Chief Financial Officer Michael Easton present at the RBC Capital Markets technology conference on 2026-11-18, their first public appearance since the tender.\n\n## Bull Case\n- **Debt is being retired below par.** The 2026-11-12 results release confirmed $533 million of principal bought back at $979.08 and $928.75 per $1,000, so each dollar of cash retired more than a dollar of debt. On the 2026-11-03 call, Easton said the company expects to cut debt by about $875 million in 2026.\n- **Recurring growth is turning up.** Organic annual contract value (ACV) rose 1.8% from a year earlier at 2026-09-30. The company guides fourth-quarter recurring organic growth of 2.00%–2.50%, above the full-year range of 1.00%–1.50% (third-quarter release, 2026-11-03).\n- **Intellectual property contract value grows again.** On the 2026-11-03 call, Shem Tov said ACV in the Intellectual Property (IP) segment had grown for the first time in more than three years. He cited a US Patent and Trademark Office trademark image-search win.\n- **Cash generation is large against the share price.** Free cash flow was $322 million over the four quarters to 2026-09-30, according to the 10-Q filed 2026-11-03. Management guides 2026 free cash flow of $320–340 million and, on the 2026-11-03 call, described 10%–15% growth in 2027, helped by about $25 million less cash interest.\n- **Its data now feeds AI assistants.** Clarivate added CompuMark trademark data to Microsoft Copilot on 2026-11-02 and Derwent and Darts-ip patent data to Anthropic's Claude on 2026-11-11, both through its IPOne platform. Management reported more than 465 million AI application programming interface (API) calls on the 2026-11-03 call, over 2.5 times the previous year's volume.\n\n## Bear Case\n- **Growth is still near zero.** Revenue from continuing operations was $481.6 million in the third quarter of 2026, against $530.3 million a year earlier, and organic revenue grew 0.4% (third-quarter release, 2026-11-03). Transactional revenue fell 12.4% organically.\n- **Leverage remains heavy.** Total debt was $4,176.1 million and cash $257.0 million at 2026-09-30, according to the third-quarter release. The $533 million tender retires only a small part of that debt.\n- **Losses continue under GAAP.** The third-quarter net loss was $80.8 million, including a $62.2 million non-cash goodwill impairment on the life-sciences unit. On 2026-11-03 the company cut its 2026 GAAP earnings-per-share (EPS) outlook to a loss of $0.65 to $0.62.\n- **Fourth-quarter guidance came in below expectations.** On 2026-11-03 the company guided fourth-quarter adjusted EPS of $0.14–$0.18. Benzinga reported a $0.19 consensus the same day.\n- **Analyst targets sit at the share price.** Goldman Sachs kept a Neutral rating and cut its target to $2.30 from $2.60 on 2026-11-05. That target is below the $2.33 close of 2026-11-13.\n- **Insiders have not bought.** SEC Form 4 filings from August to October 2026 show only share grants and shares withheld for tax, with no open-market purchases. One example: 263,576 shares were withheld from Henry Levy, President of Life Sciences & Healthcare, at $1.47 on 2026-10-06.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n\nThe shares closed at $2.33 on 2026-11-13. That is above the 50-day moving average of $1.85 and the 200-day moving average of $2.19, both as of that close. The 52-week closing low was $1.45 on 2026-10-05, the day before the life-sciences sale closed. The 52-week intraday high was $3.87 on 2025-11-28, and the last close is 39.8% below it. The three-month change is measured from a $1.89 close on 2026-08-17.\n\nThe rally after the tender has stalled. Closes stayed in a narrow band from 2026-11-06 to 2026-11-13: they peaked on 2026-11-10, the day the tender was priced, and ended the week at $2.33 after the notes settled. The recovery now has to hold the 200-day average. A close back below it would put the shares back in the range they held before the tender.\n\nAcross US stocks priced at $3 or more and trading at least $5 million a day, three-month returns had a standard deviation of 27% in 2026, so a 23.3% gain over three months is within the normal range.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **2026-11-18:** CEO and CFO presentation at the RBC Capital Markets Global Technology, Internet, Media and Telecommunications Conference, 2 p.m. Eastern. This is the first public update since the tender settled. Any comment on fourth-quarter contract value or 2027 growth tests the 2.00%–2.50% fourth-quarter recurring growth guide.\n- **~2027-02-25 (est.):** Fourth-quarter 2026 results and 2027 guidance. Shows whether recurring organic growth reached the 2.00%–2.50% fourth-quarter guide and whether the 2027 outlook supports the 10%–15% free cash flow growth management described.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA weekly close above $2.39, the 2026-11-10 close and the top of the post-tender rally, which would show the shares leading; or a 2027 outlook projecting recurring organic revenue growth above 2.50%, the top of the fourth-quarter 2026 guide.\n\n## Correlation Notes\nClarivate is grouped with AI enterprise software companies such as EPAM, Appian and Procore. Its shares have moved on its own balance-sheet news instead. In November the shares moved most around the third-quarter report on 2026-11-03 and the tender on 2026-11-04 to 2026-11-13, and no peer's results coincided with those moves. A common market view is that heavily indebted companies trade with credit conditions and the price of their own bonds more than with sector valuations. The AI link cuts both ways. The Copilot and Claude integrations widen the reach of Clarivate's data, but the same tools could replace part of what customers pay for. Third-quarter 2026 revenue does not yet show either effect.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-12",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-14T08:27:59+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-14",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-14",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}