{
  "@context": "https://orbyd.app/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "CMPS",
  "name": "COMPASS Pathways Plc",
  "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CMPS/",
  "json_url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/CMPS.json",
  "status": "DORMANT",
  "current_conviction": "MEDIUM",
  "graded_conviction": null,
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a5",
    "n": 5
  },
  "current_thesis": "Clinical binary already resolved (COMP006 positive 2026-07-07); the leg being bought now is regulatory — rolling NDA completion guided Q4 2026, H1 2027 launch, $433.3M cash into 2028. Q2 landed 2026-08-05 alongside a mixed shelf filing, and nothing is dated inside 30 days to feed a +36.6% three-month move.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A weekly close below $11.50 gives back the post-Q2 range and more than half the July COMP006 readout leg; secondary breaks: a priced equity offering off the 2026-08-05 mixed shelf at a discount, or the Q4 2026 rolling-NDA completion slipping into 2027.",
  "catalyst_date": null,
  "outcome": "OPEN",
  "outcome_date": null,
  "invalidation_fired": null,
  "themes": [
    "precision-biotech-therapeutics",
    "cannabis-reclassification"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "notes": [
    "US listing is an ADS of a UK-incorporated plc; corporate actions and offerings are priced in ADS terms.",
    "Warrant liabilities are remeasured each quarter, so GAAP EPS moves inversely to the share price and diverges sharply from adjusted EPS.",
    "A mixed shelf prospectus has been on file since 2026-08-05, terms undisclosed; issuance capacity is live.",
    "Pre-revenue clinical-stage: no product sales, so all valuation rests on the COMP360 regulatory path.",
    "Low-float psychedelic name with a history of 15-25% single-session moves on single headlines in both directions."
  ],
  "body_markdown": "\n_Price basis: last completed daily close $13.54 (2026-08-07). 52-week high $15.07 (-10.2%). 3-month return +36.6%. RSI(14) 67.7._\n\n## CMPS — COMPASS Pathways plc\n\n## Current Thesis\nThe clinical binary resolved on 2026-07-07 when COMP006 delivered positive 26-week Phase 3 data in treatment-resistant depression. The 2026-08-05 Q2 print and the 2026-08-06 VA collaboration extended the story without adding a dated near-term event, and the same-day filing of a mixed shelf prospectus put issuance capacity back on file while the stock sits 10.2% under its 52-week high after a 36.6% three-month run.\n\n## Bull Case\n- Cash and cash equivalents $433.3M at 2026-06-30, with the company stating the position is sufficient into 2028 — i.e. through the guided launch window (Q2 2026 release, 2026-08-05).\n- Rolling NDA submission underway with all modules targeted for Q4 2026; COMP360 launch guided to H1 2027 subject to FDA approval and DEA rescheduling (2026-08-05).\n- Company states roughly 90% of the US patient population lives in states that intend to reschedule within 30 days of federal DEA action (2026-08-05) — the state-lag problem that normally follows a federal schedule change is framed as small.\n- 2026-08-06: VA collaboration on PIVOT, a multi-site double-blind randomized trial in veterans with TRD with or without PTSD, comparing two COMP360 doses with an optional second open-label administration at week four, MADRS primary. Compass donates study drug, so the government sponsor carries trial cost.\n- Adjusted Q2 EPS $(0.36) versus $(0.40) consensus (2026-08-05), the adjusted figure excluding warrant fair-value movement.\n- Target band sits above the tape: B. Riley raised to $22 and Morgan Stanley to $18 (both 2026-08-06), RBC $21 (2026-08-06), with BTIG $25 (2026-07-07) and Evercore/Stifel $21 (2026-07-08) from the readout cluster.\n\n## Bear Case\n- A mixed shelf prospectus was filed 2026-08-05, terms undisclosed, the same day as the runway commentary. The precedent is recent: the company announced pricing of a $150.0M ADS offering on 2026-02-18. Registered capacity is not a raise, but it is the mechanism.\n- GAAP Q2 net loss $253.8M, $(1.88) per share against a $(0.37) estimate, driven by a $205.6M non-cash change in warrant fair value. That liability is remeasured upward as the share price rises, so headline GAAP losses widen precisely when the equity works.\n- Nothing is scheduled inside the next 30 days. NDA completion is a Q4 2026 item; approval and DEA action are 2027 events. A +36.6% three-month move has to hold on flow alone.\n- Sell-side dispersion is unusually wide and the last actions cut in both directions: Wells Fargo initiated Equal-Weight at $13 on 2026-07-27, level with the tape, while HC Wainwright lowered its target from $70 to $65 on 2026-08-07 and RBC lowered to $21 on 2026-08-06.\n- Pre-revenue with a commercial organization already hired ahead of approval: H1 2026 R&D $55.7M and G&A $39.6M, on 135,722,306 ordinary shares at 2026-06-30.\n- Label and REMS negotiation, plus the functional-unblinding critique of psychedelic trial design, remain open items the two positive Phase 3s do not settle.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n- $13.54 close on 2026-08-07, 10.2% below the $15.07 52-week high, RSI(14) 67.7 — extended but short of the >75 readings that usually mark exhaustion in this name.\n- The July note framed the COMP006 gap origin near $9–10, roughly where the pre-readout low-$8s tape had been repriced. Price has carried several points clear of that shelf, so the $10 line that anchored the July frame is stale as a working risk level.\n- No base has formed above the 2026-08-05 print. Continuation requires holding the post-print range and clearing $15.07 on expanding volume; the alternative path is a drift back into the $11s over the eight-to-ten weeks before the Q4 NDA completion becomes tradeable news.\n- Crowding observables, stated as observed: nine covering desks issued targets between 2026-07-07 and 2026-08-07; a mixed shelf went on file 2026-08-05; the earnings date is behind rather than ahead, removing the usual pre-print compression; and two of the four most recent target actions were reductions.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar (next 30 days)\n\n- No confirmed company-dated catalyst falls between 2026-08-08 and 2026-09-07. The next hard dates sit outside the window.\n- ~2026-11-04 (est.): Q3 2026 results — no date announced; Q2 landed 2026-08-05.\n- H1 2027 (guided): US COMP360 launch, conditional on FDA approval and DEA rescheduling.\n\n## Elapsed catalysts\n\n- ~Q4 2026 (company-guided 2026-08-05): completion of the rolling NDA submission, all modules. *(passed 4d ago)*\n- Undated: DEA scheduling action on psilocybin; first-patient-in for the VA PIVOT trial announced 2026-08-06. *(passed 3d ago)*\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\nThe cleanest break would be a priced equity offering drawn off the 2026-08-05 shelf at a discount to the tape — that would convert the \"funded into 2028\" language into an old statement and reset the share count above 135.7M. Second, the Q4 2026 rolling-NDA completion slipping into 2027 would push the H1 2027 launch guide with it and remove the only company-controlled milestone left this year. Third, an FDA refuse-to-file or a clinical hold would take the regulatory leg off the table entirely. On price, a weekly close below $11.50 gives back the post-Q2 range and more than half the July readout leg, which would say the re-rating has been sold rather than consolidated. A run through $15.07 on volume with the Q4 filing on track argues the opposite.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n- The psychedelic-CNS complex (ATAI, MNMD, CYBN) trades together on policy headlines; the 2026-04-24 cluster — FDA rolling-review request, the Commissioner's National Priority Voucher, and the FDA statement following the executive order on serious mental illness — moved the group, not just CMPS.\n- DEA scheduling policy is a shared factor with cannabis rescheduling names, which is why the theme tag persists even though the business has no cannabis exposure.\n- As a pre-revenue clinical-stage issuer, the name carries no macro read-through; its sensitivity runs to biotech equity-issuance conditions and to single-headline risk, which historically produces 15–25% single-session moves in both directions.",
  "first_seen": "2026-04-22",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-08-08T14:32:04+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-08-08",
  "last_update_source": "watchlist_research",
  "license": "Content © orbyd. Cite the canonical URL."
}