{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "CMRC",
  "name": "Commerce.com, Inc. Series 1",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CMRC/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CMRC.json",
  "status": "DORMANT",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a4",
    "n": 4
  },
  "current_thesis": "Commerce.com is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: profit is rising on cost cuts while revenue fell 2.1% in the third quarter and the CFO leaves on 13 November 2026. The fourth-quarter report, expected around February 2027, tests the revenue guide.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close above $4.14, which would put the shares well above every close since the 2026-11-05 report and show the market paying for the cost plan despite flat revenue. Fourth-quarter revenue above the $86.4 million top of the guide would also show the shares leading.",
  "catalyst_date": "2026-11-13",
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "caveats": [],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "Commerce.com, Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001626450/000119312526448533/bigc-ex99_1.htm",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Commerce announces third quarter 2026 financial results",
      "url": "https://finviz.com/news/416738/commerce-announces-third-quarter-2026-financial-results",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Commerce (CMRC) Q3 2026 earnings review",
      "url": "https://finsee.ai/earnings/cmrc/2026/q3/en/",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Commerce announces strategic operating plan to accelerate profitability and free cash flow generation",
      "url": "https://finviz.com/news/390701/commerce-announces-strategic-operating-plan-to-accelerate-profitability-and-free-cash-flow-generation",
      "date": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $84.2 million, down 2.1% from a year earlier; non-GAAP operating income was $8.0 million and GAAP operating loss was $1.8 million.",
      "source": "Q3 2026 results, 8-K exhibit 99.1",
      "as_of": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "claim": "2026 revenue guidance narrowed to $339.0–342.0 million; non-GAAP operating-income guidance is $35.3–37.3 million, from $31–37 million.",
      "source": "Q3 2026 results, 8-K exhibit 99.1",
      "as_of": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Fourth-quarter 2026 guidance: revenue $83.4–86.4 million and non-GAAP operating income $6.8–8.8 million.",
      "source": "Q3 2026 results, 8-K exhibit 99.1",
      "as_of": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Third-quarter free cash flow was $5.7 million; cash, equivalents, restricted cash and marketable securities were $162.8 million.",
      "source": "Q3 2026 results, 8-K exhibit 99.1",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "CFO and chief operating officer Daniel Lentz leaves effective 2026-11-13; Tyler Duncan becomes interim CFO.",
      "source": "Q3 2026 results, 8-K exhibit 99.1",
      "as_of": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Third-quarter restructuring charges were $4.0 million versus $0.1 million a year earlier; no share repurchase activity was reported for the quarter.",
      "source": "Q3 2026 results, 8-K exhibit 99.1",
      "as_of": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Strategic plan targets $60–80 million of annualized non-GAAP operating-cost savings and a non-GAAP operating margin of at least 20% from 2027; board authorized up to $50 million of repurchases through 2028-09-10.",
      "source": "Company 8-K, 2026-09-10",
      "as_of": "2026-09-10"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Daniel Lentz sold 797 shares at $3.62 on 2026-10-23 in an open-market sale under a Rule 10b5-1 plan.",
      "source": "SEC Form 4 filed 2026-10-27",
      "as_of": "2026-10-27"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [],
  "frame": null,
  "filed_numbers": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-13",
    "sector": "Technology",
    "financials": {
      "status": "ok",
      "reason": null,
      "close_date": "2026-11-13",
      "latest_quarter": "2026-09-30",
      "figures": {
        "revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-05",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 84.2,
              "yoy_pct": -2.1
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-06",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 84.5,
              "yoy_pct": 0.1
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-05-07",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 86.8,
              "yoy_pct": 5.4
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-03-02",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 89.5,
              "yoy_pct": 2.9
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-11-06",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 86,
              "yoy_pct": 2.8
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-07-31",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 84.4,
              "yoy_pct": 3.2
            }
          ]
        },
        "gross_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-05",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 74.1
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-06",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 75.2
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-05-07",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 76.7
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-03-02",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 78.3
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-11-06",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 78.4
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-07-31",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 79
            }
          ]
        },
        "operating_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-05",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -2.1
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-06",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 3.2
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-05-07",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 6.6
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-03-02",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -7.4
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-11-06",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -0.5
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-07-31",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -8
            }
          ]
        },
        "pretax_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": -3.1
        },
        "net_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "four_quarters_end": "2026-09-30",
          "value_musd": -3.2,
          "four_quarters_musd": -6.7
        },
        "operating_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 33.8
        },
        "capital_spending": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 16.1
        },
        "free_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 17.7
        },
        "diluted_share_change": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "base_end": "2025-09-30",
          "pct": 2.7
        },
        "cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 161.6
        },
        "debt": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 156.3,
          "composition": "long-term debt"
        },
        "net_cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 5.3
        },
        "deferred_revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 68.8,
          "yoy_pct": 16.3
        },
        "backlog": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "receivables": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 47.8
        },
        "inventory": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "equity": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 52.3
        },
        "market_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-11-03",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 295.9
        },
        "enterprise_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-11-03",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 290.6
        },
        "ev_sales": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-11-03",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-05",
          "multiple": 0.8
        },
        "ev_ebit": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-11-03",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-05",
          "multiple": 3459
        },
        "pe": {
          "status": "not meaningful"
        },
        "pb": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-11-03",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-05",
          "multiple": 5.7
        },
        "fcf_yield": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-11-03",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-05",
          "pct": 6
        }
      }
    },
    "short_interest": {
      "status": "ok",
      "settlement": "2026-10-15",
      "published": "2026-10-26",
      "short_pct_of_outstanding": 7.89,
      "days_to_cover": 9.6,
      "change_pct": 0.3
    },
    "insiders": {
      "status": "ok",
      "as_of": "2026-11-15",
      "windows": [
        {
          "days": 90,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2026-08-18",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 4654.48,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        },
        {
          "days": 365,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2025-11-16",
          "bought_usd": 294000,
          "sold_usd": 29129.12,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\n\nCommerce.com is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. Profit is rising on cost cuts while sales are flat to down, and the chief financial officer (CFO) leaves on 2026-11-13. The fourth-quarter report, expected around February 2027, tests the $83.4–86.4 million revenue guide and the full-year profit range.\n\nThe third-quarter report on 2026-11-05 raised the floor of 2026 non-GAAP operating-income guidance to $35.3–37.3 million, from $31–37 million. Non-GAAP figures exclude items such as restructuring charges. Revenue was $84.2 million, down 2.1% from a year earlier, inside the company's $82.5–85.5 million range set on 2026-08-06. Non-GAAP operating income was $8.0 million, against a guided $3.3–5.3 million. The operating loss under generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) was $1.8 million, after $4.0 million of restructuring charges ([Q3 8-K exhibit 99.1](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001626450/000119312526448533/bigc-ex99_1.htm)).\n\nThe shares closed at $3.54 on 2026-11-12, down from $3.69 on 2026-11-10 and below the $3.62 close on the report date's following sessions. They are 61.6% higher over three months, measured from the $2.19 close on 2026-08-14, and 36.1% below the 52-week intraday high of $5.54 set on 2025-11-12. That three-month gain already prices in the cost plan announced on 2026-09-10. The next step up needs revenue to stop shrinking, which the company's own fourth-quarter guide does not call for.\n\n## Bull Case\n- **Profit is running ahead of guidance.** Third-quarter non-GAAP operating income was $8.0 million against the company's $3.3–5.3 million guide (Q3 8-K, 2026-11-05). Fourth-quarter guidance is $6.8–8.8 million.\n- **The full-year profit floor was lifted.** 2026 non-GAAP operating-income guidance is $35.3–37.3 million, from $31–37 million on 2026-09-10. Revenue guidance was narrowed to $339.0–342.0 million.\n- **Cash generation recovered.** Free cash flow was $5.7 million in the third quarter. Cash, equivalents, restricted cash and marketable securities were $162.8 million on 2026-09-30 (Q3 8-K).\n- **Subscription revenue stopped shrinking.** Subscription solutions revenue was $64.7 million, up 0.1% from a year earlier, and merchant sales volume rose 14% to $9.0 billion, per finsee.ai's summary of the company release (2026-11-05).\n- **A customer win was announced.** Orangetheory Fitness moved its franchisee ordering portal to BigCommerce B2B Edition, according to company news dated 2026-11-10.\n- **A cost plan and buyback are authorized.** The company targets $60–80 million of annualized non-GAAP operating-cost savings and a non-GAAP operating margin of at least 20% from 2027. The board authorized up to $50 million of repurchases through 2028-09-10 (company 8-K, 2026-09-10).\n\n## Bear Case\n- **Revenue fell from a year earlier.** Third-quarter revenue was down 2.1% (Q3 8-K, 2026-11-05). Fourth-quarter guidance of $83.4–86.4 million does not call for a clear return to growth.\n- **The finance chief is leaving.** Daniel Lentz, CFO and chief operating officer, departs on 2026-11-13. Tyler Duncan becomes interim CFO while the board searches for permanent hires (Q3 8-K).\n- **No repurchases were reported.** The third-quarter release reports no share repurchase activity, so the $50 million authorization has not yet appeared as buying.\n- **Restructuring costs are rising.** Charges were $4.0 million in the third quarter, against $0.1 million a year earlier. The company expects $8.5–26.3 million through fiscal 2026 year-end (company outlook, 2026-09-10).\n- **Insiders have sold small amounts.** Lentz sold 797 shares at $3.62 on 2026-10-23 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan, and 797 shares at $2.22 on 2026-08-24 (SEC Form 4 filings). Other officers' Form 4 filings on 2026-10-23 show shares withheld for tax.\n- **Analysts are cautious.** Tickeron put the consensus at Hold, with an average 12-month target near $4.25, after the 2026-11-05 report.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\nThe shares closed at $3.54 on 2026-11-12. That is above the 50-day average of $3.35 and the 200-day average of $2.94, both as of that close. The closes from 2026-11-05 to 2026-11-12 ranged from $3.54 to $3.69, so the shares have drifted since the report rather than extended the gain.\n\nThe 52-week closing low was $2.06 on 2026-08-17. The 52-week intraday high of $5.54 was set on 2025-11-12, so it falls out of the 52-week window now and the quoted high will reset lower. The 50-day average is the nearest level below the shares; a close under it would put the shares back inside the range they traded in before the report.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **~2027-02 (est.):** Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 report. Tests the $83.4–86.4 million revenue range and the $35.3–37.3 million full-year profit range, and may show any share repurchases.\n\n## Elapsed catalysts\n\n- **2026-11-13:** CFO and chief operating officer Daniel Lentz's departure takes effect; Tyler Duncan becomes interim CFO. Finance leadership changes while the company delivers a cost plan and a 2027 margin target of at least 20%. *(passed)*\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close above $4.14, which would put the shares well above every close since the 2026-11-05 report and show the market paying for the cost plan despite flat revenue. Fourth-quarter revenue above the $86.4 million top of the guide would also show the shares leading.\n\n## Correlation Notes\nCommerce.com trades with small-cap software and e-commerce platform names and with merchant-spending trends. It competes with Shopify and Wix for online merchants. The company was formerly BigCommerce, and its SEC filings use the \"bigc\" file prefix.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-10",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-13T00:57:55+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-13",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-13",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}