{
  "@context": "https://orbyd.app/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "COHU",
  "name": "Cohu, Inc.",
  "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/COHU/",
  "json_url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/COHU.json",
  "status": "DORMANT",
  "current_conviction": "MEDIUM",
  "graded_conviction": null,
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a2",
    "n": 2
  },
  "current_thesis": "Best fundamental print of the AI cycle (2026-07-30: rev $149M vs $144.08M cons.; Q3 guided $163–177M vs $146.33M) collided with a sector de-rate — the stock closed $52.88 on 2026-08-07, 28.5% under its $73.91 high and beneath the June re-rate shelf. Narrative now SATURATED: five targets at $65–80, all struck above spot, none cut yet.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A weekly close below $47 completes the round-trip of the June–July AI re-rate and takes out the early-August rout low; secondarily, a Q3 FY26 revenue print beneath the $163M low end of the 2026-07-30 guide.",
  "catalyst_date": "2026-08-19",
  "outcome": "OPEN",
  "outcome_date": null,
  "invalidation_fired": null,
  "themes": [
    "ai-datacenter-infrastructure",
    "semi-foundry-equipment",
    "semiconductors-analog",
    "ai-chips-memory"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "notes": [
    "$260M of 1.50% convertible senior notes due 2031-01-15 (priced Sept 2025, upsized from $200M) sit above the equity in the capital structure.",
    "Headline EPS is reported non-GAAP; Q1 FY26 on 2026-04-30 still printed a GAAP net loss of $12.1M, or −$0.26 per share.",
    "Small-cap semicap with high beta to the back-end test cluster — sector flow moves the stock as much as company disclosure does.",
    "Company IR calendar lists an investor day on 2026-11-10 in New York, the next scheduled multi-year model update."
  ],
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\nThe picks-and-shovels leg — AI/HPC test handling (Eclipse with Active Thermal Control) plus HBM inspection (Neon) — printed its strongest quarter of the cycle on 2026-07-30, and the stock is 28.5% below its 52-week high anyway. Q2 FY26 revenue was $149.0M against a $144.08M consensus, non-GAAP EPS $0.26 against a $0.14 estimate, and Q3 was guided to $163–177M against a $146.33M consensus. B. Riley ($69) and Needham ($65) raised targets the next morning. The tape absorbed none of it: the 2026-08-07 close was $52.88, beneath the ~$55 shelf that marked the June re-rate breakout, and the three-month return is +6.7% — most of the June–July advance has been handed back. The binding variable stopped being Cohu's order book around 2026-07-28, when the chip complex began de-rating on AI-capex-peaking and China-competition concerns (CNBC, 2026-07-29: more than $1T of chip market value shed in the selloff). Company results are compounding while the multiple contracts.\n\n## Bull Case\n- **Q2 FY26 (2026-07-30): revenue $149M, +38% YoY, versus $144.08M consensus; non-GAAP EPS $0.26 versus $0.14 estimate; non-GAAP gross margin 45.5%, above the ~44% guided on the Q1 call.** Recurring revenue was 53% of the total; adjusted EBITDA margin 12%.\n- **Q3 FY26 guide ~$170M ±$7M (+14% sequential, +35% YoY)** against a $146.33M consensus, with gross margin ~45% and opex ~$54M — the guide, not the print, is the larger surprise.\n- **HPC pipeline raised to ~$850M annually** on the Q2 call, from ~$750M given on 2026-04-30: $190M qualified across 4 customers, $250M in active qualification across 5, $445M early-stage across 10.\n- **FY26 HPC revenue outlook lifted to $100–110M** from the prior $80–100M range.\n- **Order mix rotated hard into compute**: computing was 46% of system orders and +150% YoY in Q2; industrial orders +87% YoY; software analytics orders +140% YoY, with the analytics line hitting its first $1M revenue quarter.\n- **A $26M Eclipse systems order booked in early July 2026**, plus semiconductor test utilization at 80% at quarter end — management framed that utilization level as a turning point for customer capex.\n- **Capacity is being built ahead of the ramp**: Malaysia manufacturing capacity targeted to double by year-end 2026.\n\n## Bear Case\n- **The structure broke while the fundamentals improved.** The 2026-08-07 close of $52.88 is 28.5% under the $73.91 52-week high and below the June breakout shelf near $55 that prior coverage flagged on 2026-07-12 as the level defining the re-rate.\n- **A beat-and-raise of this size failing to hold a bid is the market repricing the theme rather than the company.** The late-July chip rout (Bloomberg 2026-07-28 on AI fatigue and China competition; CNBC 2026-07-29 on >$1T of chip value shed) overwhelmed a guide well above consensus at the midpoint.\n- **Every published target now sits above spot and none has been cut**: TD Cowen $80 (2026-06-16), Baird $65 (2026-07-09), Stifel $70 (2026-07-10), Needham $65 (2026-07-31), B. Riley $69 (2026-07-31). A stack struck at $65–80 against a $52.88 close is a source of downgrade risk rather than support.\n- **Legacy end-markets are still shrinking**: automotive orders −24% YoY in Q2 FY26, offsetting part of the compute ramp.\n- **Input-cost pressure flagged on the Q2 call** — longer lead times and higher prices for memory and specialty components, with no shortages yet reported — against a Q3 gross-margin guide of ~45%.\n- **GAAP profitability is not established.** Q1 FY26 (2026-04-30) printed a net loss of $12.1M, −$0.26/share; the $0.26 Q2 figure is non-GAAP.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n- Last completed daily close **$52.88 (2026-08-07)**; 52-week range **$17.71–$73.91**; **−28.5%** from the high; three-month return **+6.7%**; **RSI(14) 51.8**.\n- Prior coverage on 2026-07-12 recorded a then-record $70.47 set 2026-06-18. The $73.91 in the adjusted daily bars therefore printed after 2026-07-12 — an inference, but it places the peak inside the same three-week window that contains the sector rout and the 07-30 report.\n- RSI at 51.8 after a 28.5% drawdown indicates the decline was quick and the recovery off the early-August low was quick too. Alphastreet reported shares at $47.26 during the sector-wide selling in that stretch. This is a mid-range chart sitting under broken support, not a washed-out one.\n- The $55 area has flipped from the shelf the June breakout built into overhead supply. The first structural observable that would matter is a weekly close back above it.\n- **Crowding/positioning observables**: five targets between $65 and $80 struck between 2026-06-16 and 2026-07-31, all above the 08-07 close, none cut yet; no reporting event inside 30 days; no insider transactions or issuance in the recent filing record reviewed. The $260M of 1.50% convertible senior notes due 2031 priced in September 2025 remain in the capital structure.\n- **Life-cycle: SATURATED.** Dating it — the sell-side re-rate completed on 2026-07-31 with the fifth target raise in seven weeks, and within the same week the strongest guidance of the company's AI cycle could not hold a bid. Mainstream coverage, best-case news flow, thin marginal buyer.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar (next 30 days)\n- **2026-08-19 — Needham Virtual Semiconductor Conference** (company IR event calendar). First scheduled management appearance since the 07-30 guide; Eclipse follow-on cadence and whether the $26M July order has been repeated is the datapoint that carries.\n- **2026-08-24 — Jefferies Semiconductor Conference, Chicago** (company IR event calendar).\n- No scheduled reporting event falls inside the window. **Q3 FY26 results ~2026-10-29 (est.)**, based on the 2026-04-30 and 2026-07-30 cadence.\n- Beyond the window and dated: **CEO Summit 2026-10-13** (San Francisco) and **investor day 2026-11-10** (New York) — the latter is the next scheduled multi-year model update.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\nThe structural break has already occurred: the June re-rate shelf near $55 gave way and the 2026-08-07 close of $52.88 sits under it, which is why the fundamental acceleration and the price now point in opposite directions. What settles the argument in each direction is observable.\n- Downside, gradeable: **a weekly close below $47** completes the round-trip of the June–July re-rate and takes out the level Alphastreet reported during the early-August sector selling.\n- Fundamental break: a Q3 FY26 revenue print beneath the **$163M** low end of the 2026-07-30 guide, or FY26 HPC revenue walked back below the **$100M** floor set on that call.\n- Sell-side break: the first price-target cut out of the $65–80 cluster, which would remove the last external support for the re-rate case.\n- Upside flip: a weekly close back above **$55** while the back-end test peers make higher lows would re-establish the trend and move the label off SATURATED.\n- Silence is also information — an August conference appearance that adds no new Eclipse order or qualification conversion would mean the $850M pipeline stopped producing bookings headlines within a month of being raised.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n- Trades with the back-end test and inspection cluster (TER, ONTO, FORM, ACLS) and with front-end semicap (KLAC, AMAT, LRCX) on sector flow days; the 2026-07-28/29 rout that hit SK Hynix, Samsung and Micron is what moved this name, absent any company-specific disclosure.\n- Neon HBM inspection ties revenue directly to memory capex, so DRAM/HBM headlines are a live input; the same memory tightness shows up on the cost line, with management flagging longer lead times for memory components on the Q2 call.\n- The residual automotive and industrial test business (auto orders −24% YoY in Q2) keeps a second, uncorrelated cycle inside the P&L that tracks the analog/MCU complex rather than AI compute.\n- Small-cap semicap beta: with a 52-week range of $17.71–$73.91, index-level moves in the semiconductor complex are amplified here, and the June-to-August round trip happened without any change to company guidance.",
  "first_seen": "2026-04-22",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-08-08T14:40:58+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-08-08",
  "last_update_source": "watchlist_research",
  "license": "Content © orbyd. Cite the canonical URL."
}