{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "COST",
  "name": "Costco Wholesale Corporation",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/COST/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/COST.json",
  "status": "WATCHLIST",
  "current_conviction": "MEDIUM",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a1",
    "n": 1
  },
  "current_thesis": "Costco Wholesale's underlying sales growth held at 7.3% in October and a $30 special dividend followed on 10 November 2026, giving the shares a modest edge over the S&P 500. The November sales report (~2 December 2026) and first-quarter results (~10 December 2026) show whether sales, margins and renewals hold.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close below $935.68, the 2026-10-06 close before the September sales report, which would erase the whole gain since the sales rebound appeared. Adjusted comparable sales below August's 5.4% in the November monthly report would also break the case.",
  "catalyst_date": null,
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [
    "consumer-discretionary-rotation"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "caveats": [],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "COSTCO WHOLESALE CORP /NEW - Form 8-K - FY2026",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000909832/000090983226000134/costex9918-k111026.htm",
      "date": "2026-11-10"
    },
    {
      "title": "Costco Stock Nears All-Time Peak Amid Dividend, Buyback Buzz",
      "url": "https://www.schaeffersresearch.com/content/news/2026/11/11/costco-stock-nears-all-time-peak-amid-dividend-buyback-buzz",
      "date": "2026-11-11"
    },
    {
      "title": "Costco October sales rise 12.6% to $24.5B",
      "url": "https://www.stocktitan.net/news/COST/costco-wholesale-corporation-reports-october-sales-7d9iupjmutib.html",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Costco Posts Double-Digit Sales Growth for October",
      "url": "https://retailbrandsinsider.substack.com/p/costco-posts-double-digit-sales-growth",
      "date": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "title": "Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ: COST)",
      "url": "https://www.wallstreethorizon.com/costco-earnings-calendar",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "days.to",
      "url": "https://days.to/costco-earnings",
      "date": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Costco declared a $30-per-share special dividend, about $13.3 billion, payable 2026-12-04 to holders of record on 2026-11-24, and reauthorized a buyback of up to $4 billion through November 2030; $3.1 billion had been bought under the prior program.",
      "source": "Costco press release, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1",
      "as_of": "2026-11-10"
    },
    {
      "claim": "October net sales for the four weeks ended 2026-11-01 rose 12.6% to $24.50 billion; first-nine-week net sales rose 12.8% to $54.52 billion.",
      "source": "Costco October sales release (GlobeNewswire)",
      "as_of": "2026-11-04"
    },
    {
      "claim": "October comparable sales rose 11.1% reported and 7.3% excluding gasoline and currency; adjusted growth was 8.1% in the US, 3.5% in Canada and 6.9% in other international markets.",
      "source": "Costco October sales release (GlobeNewswire)",
      "as_of": "2026-11-04"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Digitally enabled sales rose 22.5% in October and 20.5% over the first nine weeks of the fiscal year.",
      "source": "Costco October sales release (GlobeNewswire)",
      "as_of": "2026-11-04"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Adjusted comparable sales rose 8% in May, 7% in June, 6.6% in July and 5.4% in August 2026, then 7.6% in September.",
      "source": "Motley Fool citing Costco monthly reports; Costco September sales release",
      "as_of": "2026-10-07"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Fiscal fourth-quarter net sales rose 11.2% to $93.9 billion; diluted EPS was $6.75 against $5.87, including a $0.15 per share IEEPA tariff-refund benefit.",
      "source": "Costco Q4 FY2026 earnings release (8-K)",
      "as_of": "2026-09-24"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Fourth-quarter membership fee income rose 7.3% to $1.85 billion; US and Canada renewal rate was 92.3% and paid members rose 3.8% to 84.1 million.",
      "source": "Costco Q4 FY2026 earnings call",
      "as_of": "2026-09-24"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Bernstein kept its Outperform rating and raised its Costco target to $1,155 from $1,143.",
      "source": "Benzinga; fiscal.ai news reports",
      "as_of": "2026-11-11"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [],
  "frame": null,
  "filed_numbers": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-13",
    "sector": "Consumer Cyclical",
    "financials": {
      "status": "ok",
      "reason": null,
      "close_date": "2026-11-13",
      "latest_quarter": "2026-05-10",
      "figures": {
        "revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-05-10",
              "filed": "2026-06-03",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 70527,
              "yoy_pct": 11.6
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-02-15",
              "filed": "2026-03-11",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 69597,
              "yoy_pct": 9.2
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-11-23",
              "filed": "2025-12-17",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 67307,
              "yoy_pct": 8.3
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-05-11",
              "filed": "2025-06-05",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 63205,
              "yoy_pct": 8
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-02-16",
              "filed": "2025-03-13",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 63723,
              "yoy_pct": 9
            }
          ]
        },
        "gross_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-05-10",
              "filed": "2026-06-03",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 12.8
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-02-15",
              "filed": "2026-03-11",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 12.8
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-11-23",
              "filed": "2025-12-17",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 13.1
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-05-11",
              "filed": "2025-06-05",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 13
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-02-16",
              "filed": "2025-03-13",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 12.5
            }
          ]
        },
        "operating_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-05-10",
              "filed": "2026-06-03",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 4
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-02-15",
              "filed": "2026-03-11",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 3.7
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-11-23",
              "filed": "2025-12-17",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 3.7
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-05-11",
              "filed": "2025-06-05",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 4
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-02-16",
              "filed": "2025-03-13",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 3.6
            }
          ]
        },
        "pretax_income": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "net_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-05-10",
          "filed": "2026-06-03",
          "value_musd": 2192
        },
        "operating_cash_flow": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "capital_spending": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "free_cash_flow": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "diluted_share_change": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-05-10",
          "filed": "2026-06-03",
          "base_end": "2025-05-11",
          "pct": -0.1
        },
        "cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-07",
          "value_musd": 21301
        },
        "debt": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-07",
          "value_musd": 6162,
          "composition": "non-current long-term debt plus current maturities"
        },
        "net_cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-07",
          "value_musd": 15139
        },
        "deferred_revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-07",
          "value_musd": 3006,
          "yoy_pct": 5.3
        },
        "backlog": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "receivables": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-07",
          "value_musd": 3959
        },
        "inventory": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-07",
          "value_musd": 19324
        },
        "equity": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-07",
          "value_musd": 35803
        },
        "market_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-09-29",
          "basis_filed": "2026-10-07",
          "value_musd": 490194.1
        },
        "enterprise_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-09-29",
          "basis_filed": "2026-10-07",
          "value_musd": 475055.1
        },
        "ev_sales": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "ev_ebit": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "pe": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "pb": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-09-29",
          "basis_filed": "2026-10-07",
          "multiple": 13.7
        },
        "fcf_yield": {
          "status": "not available"
        }
      }
    },
    "short_interest": {
      "status": "ok",
      "settlement": "2026-10-15",
      "published": "2026-10-26",
      "short_pct_of_outstanding": 1.72,
      "days_to_cover": 3.7,
      "change_pct": 3.8
    },
    "insiders": {
      "status": "ok",
      "as_of": "2026-11-15",
      "windows": [
        {
          "days": 90,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2026-08-18",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 5607024.1,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        },
        {
          "days": 365,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2025-11-16",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 14199041.94,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\n\nCostco Wholesale's underlying sales growth held at 7.3% in October after 7.6% in September. On 2026-11-10 the company added a $30-per-share special dividend and a renewed $4 billion buyback. These give the shares a modestly better than even chance of beating the S&P 500 over the next three months. Two reports settle the case: November sales (estimated 2026-12-02) and fiscal first-quarter results (estimated 2026-12-10). They will show whether the sales pace, margins and membership renewals hold.\n\nThe October release of 2026-11-04 is still the latest sales data. Net sales for the four weeks ended 2026-11-01 rose 12.6% to $24.50 billion. Comparable sales rose 11.1% as reported and 7.3% excluding gasoline and currency. The adjusted figure had slowed from 8% in May to 5.4% in August before it recovered (Motley Fool, citing company reports).\n\nThe shares have moved ahead of most analysts. They closed at $1,092.21 on 2026-11-12, above the $1,074.48 average 12-month analyst target that Schaeffer's Investment Research cited on 2026-11-11. At that price the market is already paying for adjusted growth to stay near 7% through the holidays.\n\n## Bull Case\n\n- **October confirmed the September rebound.** Adjusted comparable sales rose 7.3% in October, up from 5.4% in August. Over the first nine weeks of the fiscal year, net sales rose 12.8% to $54.52 billion (company release, 2026-11-04).\n- **US growth held its pace.** US adjusted comparable sales rose 8.1% in October after 8.0% in September (company releases, 2026-11-04 and 2026-10-07). Company officials named San Diego, Los Angeles and the Midwest as the strongest US regions (Retail Brands Insider, 2026-11-05).\n- **Digital sales sped up again.** Digitally enabled sales rose 22.5% in October after 19.0% in September. Over the first nine weeks they rose 20.5% (company releases).\n- **Cash returns come from the business.** The board declared a $30 special dividend, about $13.3 billion, payable 2026-12-04 to holders of record on 2026-11-24. It also renewed a buyback of up to $4 billion through November 2030, replacing a 2023 program under which $3.1 billion was spent (Form 8-K, 2026-11-10).\n- **Membership income keeps compounding.** Fourth-quarter membership fee income rose 7.3% to $1.85 billion. The US and Canada renewal rate was 92.3%, and paid members rose 3.8% to 84.1 million (earnings call, 2026-09-24).\n- **Targets kept rising after the dividend.** On 2026-11-11 Bernstein kept its Outperform rating and raised its target to $1,155 from $1,143 (Benzinga; fiscal.ai). On 2026-11-05 JP Morgan raised its target to $1,150, and Gordon Haskett raised its target to $1,200 from $1,100 (Benzinga; fiscal.ai).\n\n## Bear Case\n\n- **The price is already above the average target.** The $1,092.21 close on 2026-11-12 sits above Schaeffer's $1,074.48 average target of 2026-11-11. It is also above Deutsche Bank's $1,082 target, which the bank raised from $1,079 on 2026-11-05.\n- **The valuation leaves little room.** The shares traded at 41.35 times forward earnings on 2026-10-08, according to TIKR, and Truist rated them Hold that day.\n- **Margins are the weaker half of the case.** The fourth-quarter LIFO (last-in, first-out inventory accounting) charge was $152 million, tied to memory-chip and petroleum inflation. Fourth-quarter diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $6.75 included a $0.15 tariff-refund benefit that the first quarter will not have (Q4 FY2026 8-K, 2026-09-24).\n- **Walmart is pricing against the membership.** Walmart's $120 bundle of Walmart+ and Sam's Club Plus competes directly for Costco's members. Walmart's three holiday shopping events began on 2026-11-12 and run to 2026-12-02, which overlaps the period the November sales report covers.\n- **Canada is lagging.** Canada's adjusted comparable sales rose 3.5% in October, against 8.1% in the US (company release, 2026-11-04).\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n\nThe shares closed at $1,092.21 on 2026-11-12, after touching an intraday 52-week high of $1,102.84 the same session. The last close is 1.0% below that high. The shares are up 13.8% over three months, from an adjusted close of $959.68 on 2026-08-14.\n\nBoth long averages sit far below the price. The 50-day moving average was $962.39 and the 200-day was $972.14 at the 2026-11-12 close. The 50-day still trails the 200-day because of the slump before the September sales report. The 52-week closing low was $850.00 on 2025-12-22.\n\nThe level the case turns on is the 2026-10-06 adjusted close, the day before the September sales report. A close below it would erase the whole rebound produced by the September and October reports.\n\nThe special dividend will move the price mechanically. The shares should open roughly $30 lower around the 2026-11-24 record date. That drop is cash paid to holders and says nothing about the business. After it, dividend-adjusted price histories will scale earlier closes down.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **2026-11-24:** Record date for the $30 special dividend; the shares trade without it from about this day. The shares drop by roughly $30 as cash goes to holders, which narrows the distance to the kill line without any change in the business.\n- **~2026-12-02 (est.):** November sales results; date not confirmed by the company. The first holiday-season month, covering Walmart's 2026-11-12 to 2026-12-02 promotions; shows whether adjusted comparable sales stay above August's 5.4%.\n- **~2026-12-10 (est.):** Fiscal first-quarter 2027 results; date not confirmed by the company. The first quarter without the tariff-refund benefit; shows whether margins and EPS match the sales and whether the renewal rate stays near 92.3% against Walmart's bundle.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close below $935.68, the 2026-10-06 close before the September sales report, which would erase the whole gain since the sales rebound appeared. Adjusted comparable sales below August's 5.4% in the November monthly report would also break the case.\n\nThe risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:\n\n- The sales rebound fades during the holiday season and underlying growth slows again. Confirmed by: Adjusted comparable sales below August's 5.4% in the November monthly report.\n- Walmart's $120 Walmart+ and Sam's Club Plus bundle draws members away from Costco. Confirmed by: A US and Canada renewal rate below the fourth quarter's 92.3%, or paid-member growth below 3.8%, at the fiscal first-quarter 2027 report.\n- Investors rotate out of consumer staples and back into growth and technology shares, as on 2026-11-06. Confirmed by: Consumer staples trailing the S&P 500 over several weeks while growth sectors lead, with Costco giving back its gains after the October sales report.\n- Memory-chip and petroleum inflation keep raising the LIFO charge and pressing gross margin. Confirmed by: A LIFO charge above the fourth quarter's $152 million, or another year-over-year gross-margin decline, at the fiscal first-quarter 2027 report.\n- The forward earnings multiple compresses even as sales grow, with the price already above the average analyst target. Confirmed by: Target cuts or downgrades citing valuation, following Truist's Hold on 2026-10-08, after the fiscal first-quarter 2027 report.\n- Weakness in Canada spreads to other markets outside the US. Confirmed by: Canada's adjusted growth staying below October's 3.5%, or other international growth falling below October's 6.9%, in the November report.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n\nCostco trades with defensive consumer staples, and sector rotation moves it from day to day. On 2026-11-06 growth sectors led and defensive sectors trailed (Benzinga). On 2026-11-10 all 11 sectors fell, and consumer staples were among the smallest decliners (Benzinga). On 2026-11-11 and 2026-11-12 Costco rose on its own dividend news. Walmart and BJ's Wholesale are its closest peers, and Walmart's holiday promotions from 2026-11-12 to 2026-12-02 bear directly on Costco's traffic. Costco's monthly sales releases move the shares in the first week of each month, separately from its quarterly reports.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-10",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-12T23:18:05+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-12",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-12",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}