{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "CXM",
  "name": "Sprinklr, Inc.",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CXM/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/CXM.json",
  "status": "WATCHLIST",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a4",
    "n": 4
  },
  "current_thesis": "Sprinklr's shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500, because an AI-agent rally has outrun a business whose revenue grew 1% last quarter. The third-quarter report on 2 December 2026 shows whether subscription growth can support the price.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close above $8.21, the 2026-08-31 close made on the day of the 52-week intraday high, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; third-quarter subscription revenue above $197 million with a raised fiscal 2027 outlook would also prove the call wrong.",
  "catalyst_date": "2026-12-02",
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [
    "ai-enterprise-software"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "caveats": [],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "Sprinklr publishes update to financial calendar",
      "url": "https://rallies.ai/news/sprinklr-publishes-update-to-financial-calendar-61c62bfbbfcb6539",
      "date": "2026-11-10"
    },
    {
      "title": "Sprinklr (NYSE:CXM) Stock: Insider Jacob Scott Sells 16,407 Shares",
      "url": "https://www.dailypolitical.com/2026/11/04/sprinklr-nysecxm-stock-insider-jacob-scott-sells-16407-shares.html",
      "date": "2026-11-04"
    },
    {
      "title": "Sprinklr Announces Third Quarter Fiscal 2026 Results",
      "url": "https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20251203552368/en/Sprinklr-Announces-Third-Quarter-Fiscal-2026-Results",
      "date": "2025-12-03"
    },
    {
      "title": "MarketBeat",
      "url": "https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/price-sprinklr-nyse-cxm-trading-down-62-time-to-sell-2026-09-08/",
      "date": "2026-09-08"
    },
    {
      "title": "Earnings Whispers",
      "url": "https://earningswhispers.com/epsdetails/CXM/202607",
      "date": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Sprinklr scheduled its third-quarter results for before the market opens on 2026-12-02, with a conference call at 8:30 a.m. ET",
      "source": "Sprinklr financial calendar announcement, 2026-11-10",
      "as_of": "2026-11-10"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Q2 FY27 total revenue $213.7M, up 1% year over year; subscription revenue $194.8M, up 3%",
      "source": "Sprinklr Q2 FY27 results release",
      "as_of": "2026-09-02"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Remaining performance obligations $1.03B, up 11%; current remaining performance obligations $614M, up 3%",
      "source": "Sprinklr Q2 FY27 results release",
      "as_of": "2026-07-31"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Q3 FY27 guidance: subscription revenue $196M-$197M, total revenue $215M-$216M, non-GAAP operating income $33.5M-$34.5M",
      "source": "Sprinklr Q2 FY27 results release; Earnings Whispers summary",
      "as_of": "2026-09-02"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Q3 FY26 total revenue $219.1M, up 9%; subscription revenue $190.3M, up 5%",
      "source": "Sprinklr Q3 FY26 results release",
      "as_of": "2025-12-03"
    },
    {
      "claim": "FY27 guidance: subscription revenue $782.5M-$784.5M, total revenue $866.5M-$868.5M, non-GAAP EPS about $0.47",
      "source": "Sprinklr Q2 FY27 results release; MarketBeat call summary",
      "as_of": "2026-09-02"
    },
    {
      "claim": "General counsel Jacob Scott sold 16,407 shares at $6.97 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan",
      "source": "SEC Form 4 filed 2026-11-04",
      "as_of": "2026-11-02"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Director Stephen Ward Jr. bought 150,000 shares on the open market at $5.67",
      "source": "SEC Form 4 filed 2026-10-15",
      "as_of": "2026-10-13"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [],
  "frame": null,
  "filed_numbers": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-13",
    "sector": "Technology",
    "financials": {
      "status": "ok",
      "reason": null,
      "close_date": "2026-11-13",
      "latest_quarter": "2026-07-31",
      "figures": {
        "revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-07-31",
              "filed": "2026-09-03",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 213.7,
              "yoy_pct": 0.8
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-04-30",
              "filed": "2026-06-04",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 219.5,
              "yoy_pct": 6.8
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-01-31",
              "filed": "2026-03-19",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 220.6,
              "yoy_pct": 8.9
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-10-31",
              "filed": "2025-12-04",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 219.1,
              "yoy_pct": 9.2
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-07-31",
              "filed": "2025-09-04",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 212,
              "yoy_pct": 7.5
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-04-30",
              "filed": "2025-06-05",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 205.5,
              "yoy_pct": 4.9
            }
          ]
        },
        "gross_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-07-31",
              "filed": "2026-09-03",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 65.1
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-04-30",
              "filed": "2026-06-04",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 65.2
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-01-31",
              "filed": "2026-03-19",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 65.7
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-10-31",
              "filed": "2025-12-04",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 66.4
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-07-31",
              "filed": "2025-09-04",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 68.2
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-04-30",
              "filed": "2025-06-05",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 69.5
            }
          ]
        },
        "operating_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-07-31",
              "filed": "2026-09-03",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 4.7
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-04-30",
              "filed": "2026-06-04",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 4.8
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-01-31",
              "filed": "2026-03-19",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 6.4
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-10-31",
              "filed": "2025-12-04",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 5.3
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-07-31",
              "filed": "2025-09-04",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 7.7
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-04-30",
              "filed": "2025-06-05",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -0.9
            }
          ]
        },
        "pretax_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-07-31",
          "filed": "2026-09-03",
          "value_musd": 12.7
        },
        "net_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-07-31",
          "filed": "2026-09-03",
          "four_quarters_end": "2026-07-31",
          "value_musd": 7.1,
          "four_quarters_musd": 23.2
        },
        "operating_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-07-31",
          "filed": "2026-09-03",
          "first_end": "2025-10-31",
          "value_musd": 129.2
        },
        "capital_spending": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-07-31",
          "filed": "2026-09-03",
          "first_end": "2025-10-31",
          "value_musd": 1.4
        },
        "free_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-07-31",
          "filed": "2026-09-03",
          "first_end": "2025-10-31",
          "value_musd": 127.7
        },
        "diluted_share_change": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-07-31",
          "filed": "2026-09-03",
          "base_end": "2025-07-31",
          "pct": -9.6
        },
        "cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-07-31",
          "filed": "2026-09-03",
          "value_musd": 231.4
        },
        "debt": {
          "status": "none reported"
        },
        "net_cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-07-31",
          "filed": "2026-09-03",
          "value_musd": 231.4,
          "note": "no debt reported"
        },
        "deferred_revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-07-31",
          "filed": "2026-09-03",
          "value_musd": 395.9,
          "yoy_pct": -0.3
        },
        "backlog": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-07-31",
          "filed": "2026-09-03",
          "value_musd": 1026.8,
          "yoy_pct": 11.1
        },
        "receivables": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "inventory": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "equity": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-07-31",
          "filed": "2026-09-03",
          "value_musd": 519.5
        },
        "market_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-07-31",
          "basis_filed": "2026-09-03",
          "value_musd": 1617.3
        },
        "enterprise_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-07-31",
          "basis_filed": "2026-09-03",
          "value_musd": 1385.9,
          "note": "no debt reported"
        },
        "ev_sales": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-07-31",
          "basis_filed": "2026-09-03",
          "multiple": 1.6,
          "note": "no debt reported"
        },
        "ev_ebit": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-07-31",
          "basis_filed": "2026-09-03",
          "multiple": 29.9,
          "note": "no debt reported"
        },
        "pe": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-07-31",
          "basis_filed": "2026-09-03",
          "multiple": 69.8
        },
        "pb": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-07-31",
          "basis_filed": "2026-09-03",
          "multiple": 3.1
        },
        "fcf_yield": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-07-31",
          "basis_filed": "2026-09-03",
          "pct": 7.9
        }
      }
    },
    "short_interest": {
      "status": "ok",
      "settlement": "2026-10-15",
      "published": "2026-10-26",
      "short_pct_of_outstanding": 4.81,
      "days_to_cover": 4.7,
      "change_pct": 3.9
    },
    "insiders": {
      "status": "ok",
      "as_of": "2026-11-15",
      "windows": [
        {
          "days": 90,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2026-08-18",
          "bought_usd": 850500,
          "sold_usd": 2773653.71,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        },
        {
          "days": 365,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2025-11-16",
          "bought_usd": 850500,
          "sold_usd": 11036476.94,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
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      ]
    }
  },
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\nSprinklr's shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500 than to lead it over the next three months. The October rally on AI-agent news priced in a recovery that revenue has not shown: total revenue grew 1% last quarter. The third-quarter report, which the company has set for before the market opens on 2026-12-02, decides whether subscription growth catches up.\n\nSprinklr sells customer-experience software to large enterprises, covering social listening, customer service and marketing. In the quarter ended 2026-07-31, total revenue was $213.7 million, up 1% from a year earlier, and subscription revenue was $194.8 million, up 3%, according to the company's 2026-09-02 release.\n\nThe rally has already started to fade. The shares closed at $6.64 on 2026-11-11, down from $6.84 on 2026-11-05, and adjusted daily closes show them down 5.5% over three months. Company news since the 2026-10-27 marketing AI agents beta has been a 2026-10-29 research report and a 2026-11-03 vendor award, with no new customer or revenue figures.\n\nWhat the price reflects: at $6.64 on 2026-11-11 the shares sit well above their 50-day and 200-day averages, and Daily Political listed a price-to-earnings ratio of 68.46 on 2026-11-04, a multiple that assumes growth well above last quarter's 1%. The rating is Low because the third-quarter guidance points to lower total revenue than a year ago. A report with subscription revenue clearly above the $197 million top of guidance and a raised fiscal 2027 outlook would prove the view wrong.\n\n## Bull Case\n- **Contracted backlog is outgrowing revenue.** Remaining performance obligations, meaning contracted revenue not yet recognised, rose 11% to $1.03 billion at 2026-07-31, according to the 2026-09-02 release. That gives later quarters more booked revenue to draw on.\n- **The subscription outlook moved up.** On 2026-09-02 the company raised its fiscal 2027 subscription revenue guidance to $782.5–$784.5 million and held total revenue at $866.5–$868.5 million, according to MarketBeat's call summary.\n- **A director bought on the open market.** Stephen Ward Jr. bought 150,000 shares at $5.67 on 2026-10-13, according to his SEC Form 4 filed 2026-10-15.\n- **AI agents are reaching new distribution.** The Voice of the Customer agent suite became available in Google's Gemini Enterprise Agent Marketplace on 2026-10-22, and a marketing AI agents beta followed on 2026-10-27, according to company releases.\n- **The business is profitable and holds cash.** Non-GAAP operating income was $31.3 million, a 15% margin, and free cash flow was $13.1 million in the July quarter. Cash, equivalents and marketable securities were $452.9 million at 2026-07-31, according to the company release.\n- **Some analyst targets sit above the shares.** Rosenblatt's target is $8.50 and UBS's is $7.50, both dated 2026-09-03. Daily Political counted three buy and four hold ratings on 2026-11-04.\n\n## Bear Case\n- **Guidance points to lower total revenue.** The company guided third-quarter total revenue to $215–$216 million, below the $219.1 million reported a year earlier in its 2025-12-03 release. Subscription revenue is guided to $196–$197 million, against $190.3 million a year earlier.\n- **Top-line growth is close to zero.** Total revenue rose 1% in the July quarter. The $213.74 million figure missed the $214.45 million consensus, according to MarketBeat on 2026-09-08.\n- **Margins compressed year over year.** Non-GAAP operating income fell to $31.3 million from $38.2 million, and the margin fell to 15% from 18%, according to the 2026-09-02 release.\n- **Near-term bookings are barely growing.** Current remaining performance obligations, the part due within twelve months, grew 3% to $614 million at 2026-07-31. That rate matches subscription revenue growth.\n- **Insiders have been steady sellers.** SEC Form 4 filings show general counsel Jacob Scott selling 16,407 shares at $6.97 on 2026-11-02 and chief executive Rory Read selling 203,666 shares at $5.17 on 2026-10-01, both under pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 plans. On 2026-09-15 and 2026-09-16 the chief technology officer, chief administrative officer, chief information officer, general counsel and director Ragy Thomas all sold at $5.55 to $5.73.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\nThe shares closed at $6.64 on 2026-11-11, 19.8% below the 52-week intraday high of $8.28 set on 2026-08-31. The 52-week closing low was $4.82 on 2026-09-29, so the October rally recovered most of the post-report drop without regaining the August peak.\n\nAs of 2026-11-11 the 50-day moving average was $5.91 and the 200-day moving average was $5.83, and the shares trade above both. The three-month reference close was $7.03 on 2026-08-13, which the shares have not regained.\n\nInsider prices mark the range of the past two months: the cluster of executive sales at $5.55 on 2026-09-16, the chief executive's $5.17 sale on 2026-10-01, the director's $5.67 purchase on 2026-10-13 and the general counsel's $6.97 sale on 2026-11-02. A return toward the moving averages would leave the October gain largely erased, which fits the view that the shares lag.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **2026-12-02:** Q3 fiscal 2027 results, before the market opens, with an 8:30 a.m. ET call. Shows whether AI-agent launches lift subscription revenue above the $196M-$197M guidance and current backlog growth above 3%, or whether the October rally ran ahead of the numbers.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close above $8.21, the 2026-08-31 close made on the day of the 52-week intraday high, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; third-quarter subscription revenue above $197 million with a raised fiscal 2027 outlook would also prove the call wrong.\n\n## Correlation Notes\nThe October move followed company news: the 2026-10-13 director purchase, the 2026-10-22 marketplace listing and the 2026-10-27 agents beta. Daily Political listed a beta, a measure of sensitivity to the wider market, of 0.67 on 2026-11-04, so the shares have tracked company events more than the index. The nearest shared driver is investor sentiment toward enterprise software as larger platforms ship their own AI agents, which the listing inside Google's marketplace places Sprinklr close to. The 2026-12-02 report is the company-specific test; a cut to subscription guidance there would show that competitive pressure reaching Sprinklr's own numbers.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-10",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-12T16:01:42+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-12",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-12",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}