{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "DNA",
  "name": "Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc.",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DNA/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DNA.json",
  "status": "DORMANT",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a6",
    "n": 6
  },
  "current_thesis": "Ginkgo Bioworks' third-quarter revenue recovered to $27.7 million but is still 6% below a year earlier, and the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500; fourth-quarter revenue against that $27.7 million figure settles it.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close above $12.37, the post-report high close of 2026-11-09, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 again. A result that would also show it: fourth-quarter revenue above the third quarter's $27.7 million.",
  "catalyst_date": null,
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "caveats": [],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001830214/000162828026071022/ex991earningspr.htm",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Ginkgo Bioworks Holdings, Inc. - Form 10-Q - FY2026",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001830214/000162828026072290/dna-20260930.htm",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Ginkgo Bioworks (NYSE:DNA) Shares Climb 17.9% on Earnings Beat",
      "url": "https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/price-ginkgo-bioworks-nyse-dna-shares-climb-179-on-earnings-beat-2026-11-06/",
      "date": "2026-11-06"
    },
    {
      "title": "Finviz",
      "url": "https://finviz.com/news/418032/ginkgo-bioworks-misses-on-eps-but-a-revenue-beat-narrowing-losses-and-a-novo-lab-sale-advance-its-autonomous-lab-pivot",
      "date": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $27.7 million, against $29.4 million a year earlier and about $20 million in the second quarter.",
      "source": "Ginkgo Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K exhibit 99.1)",
      "as_of": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Third-quarter net loss from continuing operations was $41.0 million, against $73.4 million a year earlier; adjusted EBITDA was negative $22 million, against negative $53 million.",
      "source": "Ginkgo Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K exhibit 99.1)",
      "as_of": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities were $285.4 million on 2026-09-30; third-quarter cash burn was $27 million; 2026 burn guidance of $125 million to $150 million was reaffirmed.",
      "source": "Ginkgo Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K exhibit 99.1)",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Ginkgo announced its first autonomous lab sale to a top-tier pharmaceutical company, Novo Nordisk, for Novo's Waltham, Massachusetts research site; value and revenue timing were not disclosed.",
      "source": "Ginkgo Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K exhibit 99.1)",
      "as_of": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "claim": "In the third quarter Ginkgo issued 893,333 Class A shares under its at-the-market program for $6.5 million net; since inception 4.6 million shares for $41.1 million net.",
      "source": "Ginkgo Form 10-Q for the quarter ended 2026-09-30",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Third-quarter revenue of $27.711 million beat an analyst estimate of $21.567 million; loss per share was $0.64 against an estimated $0.86 loss.",
      "source": "Earnings summary, 2026-11-05",
      "as_of": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Jason Kelly, Reshma Shetty, Barry Canton and Steven Coen exercised options on 2026-10-16 and sold shares at $10.14 on 2026-10-19.",
      "source": "SEC Form 4 filings filed 2026-10-21",
      "as_of": "2026-10-21"
    },
    {
      "claim": "MarketBeat reported a consensus rating of Reduce and an average analyst target of $7.",
      "source": "MarketBeat, 2026-11-06",
      "as_of": "2026-11-06"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [],
  "frame": null,
  "filed_numbers": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-13",
    "sector": "Healthcare",
    "financials": {
      "status": "ok",
      "reason": null,
      "close_date": "2026-11-13",
      "latest_quarter": "2026-09-30",
      "figures": {
        "revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-09",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 27.7,
              "yoy_pct": -5.7
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-06",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 20.2,
              "yoy_pct": -48.5
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-05-07",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 19.5,
              "yoy_pct": -49.1
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-11-06",
              "restated": "2026-11-09",
              "value_musd": 29.4,
              "yoy_pct": -67
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-08-07",
              "restated": "2026-08-06",
              "value_musd": 39.1,
              "yoy_pct": -30.4
            }
          ]
        },
        "gross_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-09",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 93.5
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-06",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 91.5
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-05-07",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 84.1
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-09",
              "restated": "2026-11-09",
              "pct": 84.3
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-06",
              "restated": "2026-08-06",
              "pct": 86.3
            }
          ]
        },
        "operating_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-09",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -157.5
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-06",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -290.5
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-05-07",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -366.5
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-11-06",
              "restated": "2026-11-09",
              "pct": -280.1
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-08-07",
              "restated": "2026-08-06",
              "pct": -148.6
            }
          ]
        },
        "pretax_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "value_musd": -41.3
        },
        "net_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "four_quarters_end": "2026-09-30",
          "value_musd": -41,
          "four_quarters_musd": -251
        },
        "operating_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": -167
        },
        "capital_spending": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 6.6
        },
        "free_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": -173.5
        },
        "diluted_share_change": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2025-09-30",
          "filed": "2025-11-06",
          "base_end": "2024-09-30",
          "pct": 6.5
        },
        "cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "value_musd": 84.5
        },
        "debt": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "net_cash": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "deferred_revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "value_musd": 78.4,
          "yoy_pct": -21.1
        },
        "backlog": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "value_musd": 125.6,
          "yoy_pct": 54.5
        },
        "receivables": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "value_musd": 11.5
        },
        "inventory": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "equity": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "value_musd": 392.6
        },
        "market_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2025-09-30",
          "basis_filed": "2025-11-06",
          "value_musd": 534.6
        },
        "enterprise_value": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "ev_sales": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "ev_ebit": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "pe": {
          "status": "not meaningful"
        },
        "pb": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-09-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-09",
          "multiple": 1.4
        },
        "fcf_yield": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-09-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-09",
          "pct": -32.5
        }
      }
    },
    "short_interest": {
      "status": "ok",
      "settlement": "2026-10-15",
      "published": "2026-10-26",
      "short_pct_of_outstanding": 14.91,
      "days_to_cover": 1.9,
      "change_pct": 13.4
    },
    "insiders": {
      "status": "ok",
      "as_of": "2026-11-15",
      "windows": [
        {
          "days": 90,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2026-08-18",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 962478.06,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        },
        {
          "days": 365,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2025-11-16",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 3558087.19,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\n\nGinkgo Bioworks' third-quarter 2026 revenue recovered to $27.7 million from $20.2 million in the second quarter, but it is still 6% below the $29.4 million of a year earlier, and the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it. Fourth-quarter revenue against the $27.7 million figure decides it.\n\nThe company reported on 2026-11-05 (8-K). Losses narrowed, cash burn ran inside guidance, and Ginkgo announced its first autonomous-lab sale to a top-tier pharmaceutical company, Novo Nordisk, for Novo's new Waltham, Massachusetts research site. The release gives no value or revenue timing for that sale and no 2026 revenue guidance.\n\nThe shares closed at $9.96 on 2026-11-05, before the report, and at $11.29 on 2026-11-06, after it. They rose again through 2026-11-09, then closed at $12.01 on 2026-11-10 and $10.25 on 2026-11-11. Company news and SEC filings show no event on 2026-11-11 that explains that drop.\n\nThe price already reflects a recovery the filings have not yet delivered. The close of $10.25 on 2026-11-11 is above MarketBeat's average analyst target of $7 (2026-11-06), and revenue is below its year-earlier level.\n\n## Bull Case\n\n- **Revenue rebounded from the second quarter.** Third-quarter revenue was $27.7 million against $20.2 million in the second quarter. A 2026-11-05 earnings summary put the analyst estimate at $21.567 million.\n- **Losses are narrowing.** Net loss from continuing operations was $41.0 million, against $57.3 million in the second quarter and $73.4 million a year earlier. Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) was negative $22 million, against negative $36.3 million in the second quarter (8-K, 2026-11-05).\n- **A top-tier pharma company bought an autonomous lab.** The 2026-11-05 release names Novo Nordisk as the first such buyer, for its Waltham site. Eli Lilly's TuneLab agreement for Datapoints testing was announced on 2026-09-16 (Benzinga).\n- **Cash burn is inside guidance.** Third-quarter cash burn was $27 million. The company reaffirmed full-year 2026 burn of $125 million to $150 million (8-K, 2026-11-05).\n\n## Bear Case\n\n- **Revenue is still below last year.** Third-quarter revenue of $27.7 million compares with $29.4 million a year earlier. The company gave no revenue guidance and reports one segment, so Datapoints and autonomous-lab sales are not shown separately (8-K, 2026-11-05).\n- **The company keeps selling shares.** Under its at-the-market program it issued 893,333 Class A shares in the third quarter for $6.5 million net. Since the program began it has issued 4.6 million shares for $41.1 million net (10-Q, filed 2026-11-09).\n- **Cash is falling.** Cash, equivalents and marketable securities were $285.4 million on 2026-09-30, against $302 million on 2026-06-30. A further $84.2 million of restricted cash and securities sits in non-current assets (8-K, 2026-11-05).\n- **Insiders sold into the October rally.** Form 4 filings dated 2026-10-21 show Jason Kelly, Reshma Shetty, Barry Canton and Steven Coen each exercised options on 2026-10-16 and sold shares at $10.14 on 2026-10-19. A Form 4 filed 2026-10-07 shows Coen sold 2,403 shares at $15.00 on 2026-10-05.\n- **Analysts sit below the price.** MarketBeat reported on 2026-11-06 a consensus rating of Reduce and an average target of $7.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n\nThe last completed daily close is $10.25 (2026-11-11). That is 41.6% above the $7.24 close of 2026-08-13 and 43.7% below the 52-week intraday high of $18.22 set on 2026-10-06. The 52-week closing low is $5.48 (2026-03-30).\n\nThe close sits just above the 50-day average of $10.17 and well above the 200-day average of $8.63. Both averages are as of 2026-11-11, on adjusted closes.\n\nThe shares moved by double digits in several sessions within seven trading days: $11.65 on 2026-11-04, $9.96 on 2026-11-05, $11.29 on 2026-11-06, $12.01 on 2026-11-10 and $10.25 on 2026-11-11. Gains from the report have been given back in the last two sessions.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **~2027-03 (est.):** Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results and annual report. Shows whether quarterly revenue holds above the third quarter's $27.7 million, where the Novo Nordisk lab sale appears, and whether full-year cash burn landed inside the $125 million to $150 million guidance.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close above $12.37, the post-report high close of 2026-11-09, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 again. A result that would also show it: fourth-quarter revenue above the third quarter's $27.7 million.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n\nGinkgo trades on its own news flow more than on a sector driver. The October spike followed a company announcement and a surge in call-option volume, and it coincided with double-digit gains in other small biotech and life-science tools names on 2026-10-06 (Benzinga). The 2026-11-05 report moved the shares by more than the broader market did.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-10",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-12T04:24:08+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-12",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-12",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}