{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "DOCS",
  "name": "Doximity, Inc.",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DOCS/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/DOCS.json",
  "status": "DORMANT",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a4",
    "n": 4
  },
  "current_thesis": "Doximity's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 because AI spending has cut profit while revenue growth sits at 4%; the fiscal third-quarter report, expected in early February 2027, shows whether growth reaches the guided 6%.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close above $38.20, about 15% over the 2026-11-11 close, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; a fiscal fourth-quarter revenue guide implying growth of 8% or more would also show the call wrong.",
  "catalyst_date": "2026-11-16",
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [
    "ai-enterprise-software",
    "adtech-digital-advertising"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "caveats": [],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "SEC EDGAR",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001516513/000151651326000049/doximity-2026930xex991.htm",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Doximity (DOCS) Q2 2027 Earnings Call Transcript",
      "url": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/11/06/doximity-docs-q2-2027-earnings-call-transcript/",
      "date": "2026-11-06"
    },
    {
      "title": "Doximity Announces Fiscal 2027 First Quarter Financial Results",
      "url": "https://secure.businesswire.com/news/home/20260806730067/en/Doximity-Announces-Fiscal-2027-First-Quarter-Financial-Results",
      "date": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "title": "DOCS Class Action Lead Plaintiff Deadline is November 16, 2026 - Contact Robbins LLP About Leading the Case Against Doximity, Inc.",
      "url": "https://www.financialcontent.com/article/newsfile-2026-11-6-docs-class-action-lead-plaintiff-deadline-is-november-16-2026-contact-robbins-llp-about-leading-the-case-against-doximity-inc",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "DOCS Investor Alert: Doximity, Inc. Securities Class Action Notice - Contact SueWallSt",
      "url": "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/docs-investor-alert-doximity-inc-securities-class-action-notice---contact-suewallst-302930250.html",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "DOCS INVESTOR ALERT: Doximity, Inc. Investors with Substantial Losses May Seek to Lead Class Action Lawsuit Before November 16, 2026 Deadline - RGRD Law",
      "url": "https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/11/05/3397159/0/en/docs-investor-alert-doximity-inc-investors-with-substantial-losses-may-seek-to-lead-class-action-lawsuit-before-november-16-2026-deadline-rgrd-law.html",
      "date": "2026-11-05"
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Fiscal second-quarter 2027 revenue was $174.5 million, up 4% from $168.5 million, against guidance of $170–171 million.",
      "source": "Doximity Q2 FY2027 press release, SEC Form 8-K exhibit 99.1",
      "as_of": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Fiscal second-quarter adjusted EBITDA was $88.9 million, down 12% from $100.8 million; margin 50.9% against 59.8%. Net income fell to $34.7 million from $62.1 million.",
      "source": "Doximity Q2 FY2027 press release, SEC Form 8-K exhibit 99.1",
      "as_of": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Full-year fiscal 2027 guidance is $678–683 million of revenue (6% growth at the midpoint) and $317–325 million of adjusted EBITDA; third-quarter guidance is $195–196 million of revenue.",
      "source": "Doximity Q2 FY2027 press release and 2026-11-05 earnings call",
      "as_of": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "claim": "AI search is an eight-figure bookings product; 16 of the top 20 pharmaceutical companies have bought programs and 3 more are in the pipeline.",
      "source": "Doximity Q2 FY2027 earnings call",
      "as_of": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Net revenue retention was 103% overall and 106% for top-20 hospital and pharmaceutical customers; 124 customers above $500,000 of annual spend produced 82% of revenue.",
      "source": "Doximity Q2 FY2027 earnings call",
      "as_of": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Free cash flow was $91.3 million and share repurchases $54.2 million in the quarter; cash and marketable securities totalled $713.2 million on 2026-09-30.",
      "source": "Doximity Q2 FY2027 press release, SEC Form 8-K exhibit 99.1",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "After the report, Canaccord Genuity raised its target to $40, RBC Capital to $34, Freedom Capital Markets to $32 (Hold) and Barclays to $30 (Equal-Weight); Evercore ISI cut to $33 and Needham kept $41.",
      "source": "Analyst actions reported in company news, 2026-11-06 to 2026-11-11",
      "as_of": "2026-11-11"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Director Timothy Cabral sold 10,721 shares at $35.00 on 2026-11-05 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan.",
      "source": "SEC Form 4 filed 2026-11-09",
      "as_of": "2026-11-05"
    }
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    "sector": "Technology",
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        "pretax_income": {
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          "multiple": 9.1,
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  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\nDoximity's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. AI spending has cut profit while revenue growth sits at 4%, and the analyst targets set after the report mostly sit near or below the price. The fiscal third-quarter report, expected in early February 2027, settles it by showing whether pharmaceutical contracts and AI search lift growth toward the 6% management guided.\n\nOn 2026-11-05 Doximity reported revenue of $174.5 million for the quarter ended 2026-09-30, up 4% from $168.5 million, and above its $170–171 million guidance. Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) fell 12% to $88.9 million, and its margin fell to 50.9% from 59.8%. Net income fell to $34.7 million from $62.1 million.\n\nThe outlook moved up only modestly. Full-year fiscal 2027 revenue guidance rose to $678–683 million, which the chief financial officer said on the 2026-11-05 call represents 6% growth at the midpoint. Third-quarter guidance is $195–196 million. On the same call he said fourth-quarter growth should be similar to the third-quarter rate, with lower visibility until the December pharmaceutical contract season closes.\n\nThe rating is Low because the beat was already priced in. The shares closed at $34.67 on 2026-11-04, before the report, and at $33.22 on 2026-11-11. Barclays (target $30, 2026-11-11) and Freedom Capital Markets (target $32, 2026-11-10) both raised their targets but kept neutral ratings with targets below that close.\n\n## Bull Case\n- **Revenue keeps clearing guidance.** Fiscal second-quarter revenue of $174.5 million beat the $170–171 million guide (company release, 2026-11-05). That followed fiscal first-quarter revenue of $156.6 million against a $151–152 million guide (company release, 2026-08-06).\n- **AI search has early pharmaceutical adoption.** On the 2026-11-05 call, management said AI search is now an eight-figure bookings product. It said 16 of the top 20 pharmaceutical companies have bought programs and 3 more are in the pipeline.\n- **Hospital AI use is spreading.** The 2026-11-05 release says more than 190 health systems have purchased the AI suite. The Wolters Kluwer agreement of 2026-10-20 adds UpToDate clinical content to Doximity Ask.\n- **Cash generation funds a shrinking share count.** Free cash flow was $91.3 million in the quarter and repurchases were $54.2 million (company release, 2026-11-05). Management said on the call that fully diluted shares fell 6% from a year earlier to 188 million.\n- **Retention is holding above 100%.** On the 2026-11-05 call, net revenue retention was 103% overall and 106% for the top 20 hospital and pharmaceutical customers.\n\n## Bear Case\n- **Growth is in the single digits.** Revenue rose 4% in the quarter reported on 2026-11-05. Management's own full-year guide implies about 6% growth, and it expects the fourth quarter near the third-quarter rate.\n- **AI costs are compressing margins.** Adjusted EBITDA margin fell to 50.9% from 59.8% (company release, 2026-11-05). On the call, management put non-GAAP gross margin at 88% and said most of the rise in cost of revenue came from scaling AI investment.\n- **AI search revenue ramps slowly.** On the 2026-11-05 call, the chief financial officer expected a gradual ramp through calendar 2027 because pharmaceutical medical-legal reviews take time.\n- **Revenue rests on a small customer group.** On the 2026-11-05 call, management said 124 customers spending more than $500,000 a year account for 82% of revenue. That group grew 3% from a year earlier.\n- **A securities suit alleges lost market share.** Robbins LLP's 2026-11-06 notice says the suit alleges Doximity failed to disclose share losses to competitors with more favorable pricing and engagement models. The allegations are unproven.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\nThe shares closed at $33.22 on 2026-11-11, up 24.9% over three months from $26.59 on 2026-08-13. That close sits above the 50-day moving average of $29.47 and the 200-day moving average of $25.25, on adjusted daily closes. It is 38.5% below the 52-week intraday high of $54.04 set on 2025-11-11, and well above the 52-week closing low of $18.01 on 2026-05-14.\n\nThe report did not extend the rebound. The close fell from $34.67 on 2026-11-04 to $32.51 on 2026-11-06, the first session after the release, and has since held between $32.42 and $33.22.\n\nAnalyst targets set after the report straddle the price. Evercore ISI lowered its target to $33 and RBC Capital raised its target to $34 on 2026-11-06; Canaccord Genuity raised its target to $40 and Needham kept $41. Freedom Capital Markets raised its target to $32 with a Hold rating on 2026-11-10, and Barclays raised its target to $30 with an Equal-Weight rating on 2026-11-11.\n\nInsider activity is planned selling. SEC Form 4 filings show director Timothy Cabral sold 10,721 shares at $35.00 on 2026-11-05 and director Kira Wampler sold 2,000 shares at $32.89 on 2026-11-02, both under Rule 10b5-1 plans.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **2026-11-16:** Lead-plaintiff deadline in the Doximity securities class action. It sets who runs the case against Doximity. It is a procedural step and does not decide the allegations.\n- **~2026-12-31 (est.):** Annual pharmaceutical contract season closes. Management said most contracts are signed by the end of December; they set fourth-quarter visibility and revenue over the following year.\n- **~2027-02-04 (est.):** Fiscal third-quarter 2027 report. It shows revenue against the $195–196 million guide and whether the contract season and AI search lift the fourth-quarter outlook above the roughly 6% growth guided.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close above $38.20, about 15% over the 2026-11-11 close, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; a fiscal fourth-quarter revenue guide implying growth of 8% or more would also show the call wrong.\n\n## Correlation Notes\nDoximity's revenue follows pharmaceutical marketing budgets and the annual contract season that closes in December, so its results move with drug-company spending decisions more than with the broad market. Its largest share moves have come around its own reports: SueWallSt's class-action notice cites declines of 13% on 2025-11-07, 17% on 2026-02-06 and 23% on 2026-05-14. The next report is expected in early February 2027, near the end of the three-month horizon.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-10",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-12T16:15:11+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-12",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-12",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}