{ "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json", "ticker": "EFX", "name": "Equifax, Incorporated", "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/EFX/", "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/EFX.json", "status": "DORMANT", "current_conviction": "LOW", "archetype": { "code": "a5", "n": 5 }, "current_thesis": "Equifax shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months: the October rebound already prices in 8% non-mortgage growth, and FHFA's pending bi-merge ruling and the February 2027 guidance settle the case.", "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close above $224.92, the highest close of the last 252 sessions (2026-01-09), which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; an FHFA decision keeping the three-report requirement would also break the call.", "catalyst_date": "2026-11-17", "portfolio": null, "pick": null, "themes": [ "fintech-consumer-credit", "housing-homebuilders-proptech" ], "tags": [], "sources": [], "caveats": [], "source_links": [ { "title": "FHFA to move Fannie, Freddie to bi-merge credit checks", "url": "https://www.housingwire.com/articles/fhfa-bi-merge-credit-reports-fannie-freddie/", "date": "2026-10-01" }, { "title": "Pulte says FHFA weighing bi-merge, single credit report", "url": "https://www.housingwire.com/articles/fhfa-bi-merge-credit-report-vantagescore-pulte/", "date": null }, { "title": "Equifax Announces Participation in Upcoming Investor Conferences", "url": "https://finviz.com/news/412501/equifax-announces-participation-in-upcoming-investor-conferences", "date": "2026-10-30" }, { "title": "Equifax Soars 6% on Argus Upgrade to Buy, $200 Target as Growth Improves After Breach", "url": "https://www.tikr.com/blog/equifax-soars-6-on-argus-upgrade-to-buy-200-target-as-growth-improves-after-breach?.tsrc=rss", "date": null } ], "evidence": [ { "claim": "Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $1.693 billion, up 10% reported and 9% in local currency; adjusted EPS was $2.26, up 11%; Diversified Markets grew 8%.", "source": "Equifax Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K exhibit 99.1)", "as_of": "2026-10-20" }, { "claim": "Full-year 2026 guidance is $6.646 to $6.676 billion revenue and $8.45 to $8.55 adjusted EPS; fourth-quarter revenue guidance is $1.605 to $1.635 billion.", "source": "Equifax Q3 2026 earnings release", "as_of": "2026-10-20" }, { "claim": "Workforce Solutions revenue rose 7% to $693.9 million with its mortgage revenue roughly flat; USIS revenue rose 13% to $599.1 million.", "source": "Equifax Q3 2026 earnings release", "as_of": "2026-10-20" }, { "claim": "HousingWire, citing Bloomberg, reported FHFA planned to direct Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to bi-merge credit reports, effective one to three months after announcement.", "source": "HousingWire, 2026-10-01", "as_of": "2026-10-01" }, { "claim": "CEO Mark Begor exercised options on 37,792 shares at $112.46 and sold 37,792 shares at an average $182.80 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan.", "source": "SEC Form 4 filed 2026-10-27", "as_of": "2026-10-23" }, { "claim": "CFO John Gamble sold 4,000 shares at $177.68 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan.", "source": "SEC Form 4 filed 2026-11-02", "as_of": "2026-10-29" }, { "claim": "RBC downgraded Equifax to Sector Perform from Outperform and raised its price target to $189 from $177.", "source": "RBC Capital via Benzinga", "as_of": "2026-10-26" }, { "claim": "Equifax shares fell 27.5% in September 2026, their worst month on record, then rose nearly 35% in October through Oct. 23, their best month since 1983.", "source": "Benzinga, citing TradingView data", "as_of": "2026-10-23" } ], "view_changes": [], "frame": null, "filed_numbers": { "as_of": "2026-11-13", "sector": "Industrials", "financials": { "status": "ok", "reason": null, "close_date": "2026-11-13", "latest_quarter": "2026-09-30", "figures": { "revenue": { "status": "ok", "quarters": [ { "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-20", "restated": null, "value_musd": 1692.5, "yoy_pct": 9.6 }, { "end": "2026-06-30", "filed": "2026-07-21", "restated": null, "value_musd": 1700.1, "yoy_pct": 10.6 }, { "end": "2026-03-31", "filed": "2026-04-21", "restated": null, "value_musd": 1648.9, "yoy_pct": 14.3 }, { "end": "2025-12-31", "filed": "2026-02-19", "restated": null, "value_musd": 1550.6, "yoy_pct": 9.2 }, { "end": "2025-09-30", "filed": "2025-10-21", "restated": null, "value_musd": 1544.9, "yoy_pct": 7.2 }, { "end": "2025-06-30", "filed": "2025-07-22", "restated": null, "value_musd": 1537, "yoy_pct": 7.4 } ] }, "gross_margin": { "status": "ok", "quarters": [ { "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-20", "restated": null, "pct": 55.5 }, { "end": "2026-06-30", "filed": "2026-07-21", "restated": null, "pct": 54.5 }, { "end": "2026-03-31", "filed": "2026-04-21", "restated": null, "pct": 53.5 }, { "end": "2025-12-31", "filed": "2026-02-19", "restated": null, "pct": 57.4 }, { "end": "2025-09-30", "filed": "2025-10-21", "restated": null, "pct": 57.1 }, { "end": "2025-06-30", "filed": "2025-07-22", "restated": null, "pct": 56.8 } ] }, "operating_margin": { "status": "ok", "quarters": [ { "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-20", "restated": null, "pct": 21 }, { "end": "2026-06-30", "filed": "2026-07-21", "restated": null, "pct": 18.5 }, { "end": "2026-03-31", "filed": "2026-04-21", "restated": null, "pct": 17.4 }, { "end": "2025-12-31", "filed": "2026-02-19", "restated": null, "pct": 18.3 }, { "end": "2025-09-30", "filed": "2025-10-21", "restated": null, "pct": 17.1 }, { "end": "2025-06-30", "filed": "2025-07-22", "restated": null, "pct": 20.2 } ] }, "pretax_income": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-20", "value_musd": 296.8 }, "net_income": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-20", "four_quarters_end": "2026-09-30", "value_musd": 211.7, "four_quarters_musd": 742.9 }, "operating_cash_flow": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-20", "first_end": "2025-12-31", "value_musd": 1612.9 }, "capital_spending": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-20", "first_end": "2025-12-31", "value_musd": 508.9 }, "free_cash_flow": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-20", "first_end": "2025-12-31", "value_musd": 1104 }, "diluted_share_change": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-20", "base_end": "2025-09-30", "pct": -4.8 }, "cash": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-20", "value_musd": 192.9 }, "debt": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-20", "value_musd": 5206.7, "composition": "non-current long-term debt plus current debt" }, "net_cash": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-20", "value_musd": -5013.8 }, "deferred_revenue": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-20", "value_musd": 112.8, "yoy_pct": 2.1 }, "backlog": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-20", "value_musd": 136.5, "yoy_pct": 62.1 }, "receivables": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-20", "value_musd": 1104.2 }, "inventory": { "status": "not reported" }, "equity": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-20", "value_musd": 4472.8 }, "market_value": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-10-09", "basis_filed": "2026-10-20", "value_musd": 22013.3 }, "enterprise_value": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-10-09", "basis_filed": "2026-10-20", "value_musd": 27027.1 }, "ev_sales": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-10-09", "basis_filed": "2026-10-20", "multiple": 4.1 }, "ev_ebit": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-10-09", "basis_filed": "2026-10-20", "multiple": 21.8 }, "pe": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-10-09", "basis_filed": "2026-10-20", "multiple": 29.6 }, "pb": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-10-09", "basis_filed": "2026-10-20", "multiple": 4.9 }, "fcf_yield": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-10-09", "basis_filed": "2026-10-20", "pct": 5 } } }, "short_interest": { "status": "ok", "settlement": "2026-10-15", "published": "2026-10-26", "short_pct_of_outstanding": 4.8, "days_to_cover": 2.9, "change_pct": 7.5 }, "insiders": { "status": "ok", "as_of": "2026-11-15", "windows": [ { "days": 90, "status": "ok", "from": "2026-08-18", "bought_usd": 0, "sold_usd": 11332305, "bought_unpriced": 0, "sold_unpriced": 0 }, { "days": 365, "status": "ok", "from": "2025-11-16", "bought_usd": 464928, "sold_usd": 36364963.63, "bought_unpriced": 0, "sold_unpriced": 0 } ] } }, "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\n\nEquifax shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. The October rebound already prices in the third-quarter strength outside mortgage, and the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) has still not ruled on whether Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans can use two credit reports instead of three. Two things settle the case: that ruling, and the first 2027 guidance at the fourth-quarter report.\n\nThe company reported third-quarter revenue of $1.693 billion on 2026-10-20, up 10%, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.26, up 11%. Diversified Markets, the revenue outside U.S. mortgage, grew 8%. Management still cut the full-year revenue guide to $6.646 to $6.676 billion and guided fourth-quarter revenue to $1.605 to $1.635 billion. The reason was weaker U.S. mortgage demand late in the quarter.\n\nThe regulatory question is still open. HousingWire reported on 2026-10-01, citing Bloomberg, that FHFA planned to direct Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to bi-merge reports, with lenders choosing any two of the three bureaus and the rule taking effect one to three months after announcement. No formal directive had appeared in company news or mortgage-trade coverage by 2026-11-11. That leaves the shares exposed to one policy headline in either direction.\n\nThe price already reflects the recovery. The shares closed at $188.41 on 2026-11-11, close to RBC's $189 target and inside the $175 to $217 range of targets published after the third-quarter report. The rating is Low because the earnings news is known, the regulatory risk is unresolved, and the next scheduled results come in February 2027.\n\n## Bull Case\n\n- **Non-mortgage revenue keeps growing.** Diversified Markets grew 8% in the third quarter. In the 2026-10-20 release, management kept its forecast of high-single-digit growth for that business through the end of 2026.\n- **The earnings guide barely moved.** Full-year adjusted EPS guidance is $8.45 to $8.55, per the 2026-10-20 release. That held even after the cut to mortgage revenue.\n- **Verification revenue still grows.** Workforce Solutions revenue rose 7% to $693.9 million in the third quarter. U.S. Information Solutions (USIS) revenue rose 13% to $599.1 million, per the 2026-10-20 release.\n- **Bi-merge exposure may be modest.** TransUnion estimated in its September 2026 investor presentation, filed with the SEC, that a move to bi-merge would cost it under 1% of revenue. Equifax has not published a comparable figure.\n- **Several brokers see upside.** After the third-quarter report, Stifel set a $217 target (cut from $235) and Needham a $210 target (raised from $190), both on 2026-10-21. Argus upgraded the shares to Buy with a $200 target on 2026-10-22.\n\n## Bear Case\n\n- **The regulator keeps pressing bureaus.** FHFA Director Bill Pulte posted on 2026-10-26 that the agency was \"taking more action this week to ensure competition is real,\" per Benzinga. HousingWire reported on 2026-10-12 that he has also discussed single-bureau reports, a deeper cut than bi-merge.\n- **The fourth-quarter guide came in light.** Equifax guided fourth-quarter revenue to $1.605 to $1.635 billion on 2026-10-20. Yahoo Finance coverage put the analyst estimate near $1.68 billion. Management expects mortgage weakness from higher rates to continue through year-end.\n- **Analysts cooled after the rebound.** RBC downgraded the shares to Sector Perform from Outperform on 2026-10-26 and set a $189 target. BMO kept Market Perform with a $175 target on 2026-10-21. Autonomous Research trimmed its target to $185 from $186 on 2026-10-26.\n- **Top executives sold into the rally.** Chief Executive Mark Begor exercised options on 37,792 shares at $112.46 on 2026-10-23 and sold the same number at an average $182.80. Chief Financial Officer John Gamble sold 4,000 shares at $177.68 on 2026-10-29. Both sales were under Rule 10b5-1 plans, according to SEC Form 4 filings.\n- **Mortgage verification has stalled.** Workforce Solutions mortgage revenue was roughly flat in the third quarter, per the 2026-10-20 release. That is Equifax's most profitable mortgage business.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n\nThe shares closed at $188.41 on 2026-11-11. That is 17.6% below the 52-week intraday high of $228.67 set on 2026-01-09, and well above the 52-week closing low of $137.24 on 2026-09-30. The price is up 1.8% over three months, measured from the $185.58 close on 2026-08-13.\n\nThe most recent closing high was $193.84 on 2026-11-05. The shares closed between $188.23 and $189.59 in the four sessions that followed. As of 2026-11-11, the 50-day moving average was $166.18 and the 200-day moving average was $175.31. The shares trade above both, but the 50-day average still sits below the 200-day. September's fall has not yet fully left the averages.\n\nA close back under the 200-day moving average would mean the shares had given up their gains since the third-quarter report. A sustained move toward the January high would need a regulatory outcome or guidance better than the market now expects. The next scheduled company appearances are investor conferences on 2026-11-17 and 2026-11-18. Neither carries new numbers.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **2026-11-17:** CEO Mark Begor and CFO John Gamble fireside chat at the J.P. Morgan Ultimate Services Investor Conference. First management comments since the 2026-10-20 report on fourth-quarter mortgage trends and FHFA policy; any change to the $1.605 to $1.635 billion fourth-quarter guide would show up here.\n- **2026-11-18:** Equifax investor relations at the RBC Global TIMT Conference. A second read on whether mortgage weakness and Diversified Markets growth are tracking the 2026-10-20 guidance.\n- **Unscheduled (est. Q4 2026):** FHFA directive on bi-merge or single-bureau credit reports for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans. Settles the regulatory risk behind September's drop: a bi-merge or single-bureau rule cuts mortgage report volume, while keeping three reports removes the main overhang and would break the lag call.\n- **~2026-12-31 (est.):** Closing of the Círculo de Crédito acquisition in Mexico. Adds to International revenue, which grew 9% as reported in the third quarter, and widens growth outside U.S. mortgage.\n- **~2027-02-05 (est.):** Fourth-quarter 2026 report and first 2027 guidance. Shows whether revenue met the $1.605 to $1.635 billion guide and whether Diversified Markets held high-single-digit growth while mortgage stayed weak.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close above $224.92, the highest close of the last 252 sessions (2026-01-09), which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; an FHFA decision keeping the three-report requirement would also break the call.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n\nEquifax trades with TransUnion and Fair Isaac on FHFA headlines. On 2026-09-04, Fair Isaac fell as much as 21% and both bureaus fell as much as 11%, according to Bloomberg. TransUnion raised its buyback authorization by $1 billion to $2 billion on 2026-10-27, per Benzinga, so a peer is spending cash to support its share price.\n\nMortgage rates are the second shared driver. Equifax said on 2026-10-20 that rising rates weakened mortgage demand in the second half of the third quarter. The shares respond more to the regulator and to mortgage volumes than to the broader consumer-credit group.", "first_seen": "2026-11-10", "last_analyzed": "2026-11-12T15:55:26+00:00", "last_synthesized": "2026-11-12", "date_modified": "2026-11-12", "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL." }