{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "ETSY",
  "name": "Etsy, Inc.",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ETSY/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ETSY.json",
  "status": "WATCHLIST",
  "current_conviction": "MEDIUM",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a4",
    "n": 4
  },
  "current_thesis": "Etsy's marketplace is growing faster than its own guidance, with third-quarter GMS up 8.8% and buyers growing again, giving the shares a modest edge over the S&P 500. Holiday sales against the $3.46–$3.52 billion fourth-quarter guidance settle it.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close below $84, under the $86.50 close of 2026-11-10 that was the lowest since the 2026-11-04 high, which would show the market giving back the third-quarter gain; or fourth-quarter marketplace GMS below the $3.46 billion low end of guidance.",
  "catalyst_date": "2026-11-27",
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [
    "consumer-discretionary-rotation"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "caveats": [],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "ETSY INC - Form 8-K - FY2026",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001370637/000137063726000090/q326shareholderletter.htm",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "ETSY INC - Form 10-Q - FY2026",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001370637/000137063726000092/etsy-20260930.htm",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Etsy (ETSY) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript",
      "url": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/10/28/etsy-etsy-q3-2026-earnings-call-transcript/",
      "date": "2026-10-28"
    },
    {
      "title": "Wall Street Zen Upgrades Etsy (NYSE:ETSY) to \"Buy\"",
      "url": "https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/analyst-wall-street-zen-upgrades-etsy-nyse-etsy-to-buy-2026-10-31/",
      "date": "2026-10-31"
    },
    {
      "title": "Etsy Stock Hits Over 3-Year Highs — Q3 Revenue Jumps 11%, CFO To Depart In 2027",
      "url": "https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/etsy-stock-hits-over-3-year-highs-q3-revenue-jumps-11-cfo-to-depart-in-2027/cZU91ZYR9GJ",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "ETSY INC - Form 4 - FY2026",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001370637/000132115426000013/form4-11052026_041113.xml",
      "date": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Third-quarter 2026 GMS was $2.65 billion, up 8.8% year on year (9.1% at constant currency), against guidance of $2.53-$2.58 billion; revenue rose 10.9% to $692.5 million.",
      "source": "Etsy Q3 2026 shareholder letter (Form 8-K)",
      "as_of": "2026-10-28"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Active buyers were about 88 million on a trailing-twelve-month count, up 1.0% year on year.",
      "source": "Etsy Q3 2026 shareholder letter (Form 8-K)",
      "as_of": "2026-10-28"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Q3 2026 adjusted EBITDA was $210.4 million, up 14.6%, a 30.4% margin; take rate was 26.2%, up 50 basis points.",
      "source": "Etsy Q3 2026 shareholder letter (Form 8-K)",
      "as_of": "2026-10-28"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Q4 2026 guidance is GMS of $3.46-$3.52 billion (up 5%-7%), take rate about 25.6%, adjusted EBITDA margin about 30%; full-year GMS growth guided to about 7%.",
      "source": "Etsy Q3 2026 shareholder letter (Form 8-K)",
      "as_of": "2026-10-28"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Etsy repurchased about $394.6 million of stock in Q3 2026, reducing shares outstanding by about 5.2 million; $2.2 billion of authorisation remained.",
      "source": "Etsy Q3 2026 shareholder letter (Form 8-K)",
      "as_of": "2026-10-28"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Etsy paid $648.6 million in cash on 2026-10-01 to settle its remaining 2019 notes; it held $2.5 billion of cash and investments at 2026-09-30.",
      "source": "Etsy Q3 2026 shareholder letter (Form 8-K)",
      "as_of": "2026-10-01"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Consensus rating of 33 analysts was Hold (1 Strong Buy, 14 Buy, 17 Hold, 1 Sell), with a consensus price target of $94.07.",
      "source": "MarketBeat, 2026-10-31",
      "as_of": "2026-10-31"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Director Josh Silverman sold 42,689 shares at an average $92.03 from 2026-10-30 to 2026-11-02; CFO Charles Baker sold 1,407 shares at an average $91.42 on 2026-11-03 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan.",
      "source": "SEC Form 4 filings, 2026-11-02 and 2026-11-05",
      "as_of": "2026-11-05"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [],
  "frame": null,
  "filed_numbers": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-13",
    "sector": "Industrials",
    "financials": {
      "status": "ok",
      "reason": null,
      "close_date": "2026-11-13",
      "latest_quarter": "2026-09-30",
      "figures": {
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              "yoy_pct": 6.2
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              "value_musd": 624.2,
              "yoy_pct": -5.8
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              "value_musd": 629.1,
              "yoy_pct": -2.9
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        "gross_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
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              "restated": null,
              "pct": 72.7
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              "pct": 72.4
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              "pct": 72.2
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              "restated": "2026-08-05",
              "pct": 73.2
            }
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        },
        "operating_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
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              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-10-28",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 16.1
            },
            {
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              "restated": null,
              "pct": 18.7
            },
            {
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              "restated": null,
              "pct": 19
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              "pct": 17.8
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              "restated": "2026-08-05",
              "pct": 15
            }
          ]
        },
        "pretax_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-28",
          "value_musd": 128.7
        },
        "net_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-10-28",
          "four_quarters_end": "2026-09-30",
          "value_musd": 853.5,
          "four_quarters_musd": 987.3
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        "operating_cash_flow": {
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          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 598.1
        },
        "capital_spending": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "free_cash_flow": {
          "status": "not available"
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        "diluted_share_change": {
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          "filed": "2026-10-28",
          "base_end": "2025-09-30",
          "pct": -6.2
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        "cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
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          "value_musd": 2310.7
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        "debt": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
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          "value_musd": 2987.1
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          "value_musd": -676.4
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        "deferred_revenue": {
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          "value_musd": 35,
          "yoy_pct": 36.7
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        "backlog": {
          "status": "not reported"
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        "receivables": {
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          "value_musd": 8.9
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        "inventory": {
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        "equity": {
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          "value_musd": -677.8
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        "market_value": {
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          "basis_end": "2026-10-23",
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          "value_musd": 7672.3
        },
        "enterprise_value": {
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          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-23",
          "basis_filed": "2026-10-28",
          "value_musd": 8348.8
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        "ev_sales": {
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        },
        "ev_ebit": {
          "status": "not available"
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        "pe": {
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          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-23",
          "basis_filed": "2026-10-28",
          "multiple": 7.8
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        "pb": {
          "status": "not meaningful"
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        "fcf_yield": {
          "status": "not available"
        }
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    "short_interest": {
      "status": "ok",
      "settlement": "2026-10-15",
      "published": "2026-10-26",
      "short_pct_of_outstanding": 13.95,
      "days_to_cover": 4,
      "change_pct": -8.3
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    "insiders": {
      "status": "ok",
      "as_of": "2026-11-15",
      "windows": [
        {
          "days": 90,
          "status": "ok",
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          "bought_usd": 0,
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  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\nEtsy's marketplace is growing faster than the company's own guidance, and its buyer count is rising again, which gives the shares a modest edge over the S&P 500. Holiday sales measured against the $3.46 billion to $3.52 billion fourth-quarter guidance settle the case. The rating is Medium because the third-quarter beat and the raised full-year outlook are filed facts, while insider selling and mostly neutral broker ratings cap the case.\n\nEtsy's third-quarter shareholder letter of 2026-10-28 reported gross merchandise sales (GMS, the total value of goods sold on the marketplace) of $2.65 billion, up 8.8% year on year. That is above the top of the company's $2.53 billion to $2.58 billion range. Active buyers rose 1.0% to about 88 million over the trailing twelve months, the first year-on-year gain in two years, according to the 2026-10-28 earnings call. Etsy raised its full-year GMS outlook to about 7% growth, from the 4% to 6% it gave on 2026-08-05.\n\nThe shares closed at $88.35 on 2026-11-11, 9.7% below the 52-week intraday high of $97.85 set on 2026-11-04. At that close the market has priced the third-quarter beat but not a holiday quarter above the guided range: the price sits below MarketBeat's $94.07 consensus target of 2026-10-31.\n\n## Bull Case\n- **Growth beat the company's own range.** Third-quarter GMS was $2.65 billion, up 8.8% year on year and 9.1% at constant currency, against guidance of $2.53 billion to $2.58 billion, according to the 2026-10-28 shareholder letter. The 10-Q for the quarter ended 2026-09-30 shows revenue of $692.47 million against $624.15 million a year earlier.\n- **Buyer count is growing again.** Active buyers were about 88 million on a trailing-twelve-month count, up 1.0% year on year, in the third-quarter letter. The earnings call of 2026-10-28 described it as the first year-on-year gain in two years.\n- **Full-year outlook moved higher.** Etsy now guides 2026 GMS growth of about 7%, a take rate (the share of GMS Etsy keeps as revenue) of about 25.8% and an adjusted EBITDA margin of about 30%, per the 2026-10-28 letter.\n- **Margins expanded further.** Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation) was $210.4 million in the third quarter, up 14.6% year on year, a 30.4% margin. The take rate rose 50 basis points to 26.2%.\n- **Buybacks are large and ongoing.** Etsy repurchased about $394.6 million of stock in the third quarter, cutting shares outstanding by about 5.2 million, and had $2.2 billion of repurchase authorisation left, according to the third-quarter letter.\n- **Brokers raised targets after the report.** Barclays and Needham moved to $110, Truist to $106, Canaccord Genuity to $105, Goldman Sachs to $108 and Citigroup to $101 on 2026-10-29 and 2026-10-30, according to Benzinga and fiscal.ai.\n\n## Bear Case\n- **Fourth-quarter guidance points to slower growth.** Etsy guides holiday-quarter GMS to $3.46 billion to $3.52 billion, up 5% to 7%, below the 8.8% reported for the third quarter. It also guides the take rate down to about 25.6%.\n- **Most brokers still rate it neutral.** MarketBeat counted 1 Strong Buy, 14 Buy, 17 Hold and 1 Sell rating on 2026-10-31, a consensus of Hold. Morgan Stanley's $79, Wells Fargo's $80 and B. Riley's $87 targets of 2026-10-29 sit below the 2026-11-11 close.\n- **Insiders sold into the rally.** SEC Form 4 filings show director Josh Silverman sold 42,689 shares at an average of $92.03 from 2026-10-30 to 2026-11-02, and director Frederick Wilson sold 28,527 shares at $91.39 on 2026-10-29. Director Marla Blow and Chief Marketing Officer Bradley Minor also sold on 2026-10-29, and none of the Form 4s filed from 2026-10-19 to 2026-11-09 reports an open-market purchase.\n- **Debt remains large.** At 2026-09-30, Etsy carried $1,298.8 million of short-term and $1,688.3 million of long-term debt, per the third-quarter letter. It paid $648.6 million in cash on 2026-10-01 to settle its 2019 notes, against $2.5 billion of cash and investments at quarter end.\n- **The finance chief is leaving.** Stocktwits reported on 2026-10-28 that Chief Financial Officer Lanny Baker will leave effective 2027-03-01. He sold 1,407 shares at an average of $91.42 on 2026-11-03 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan, per his Form 4.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\nThe shares closed at $88.35 on 2026-11-11. The highest close of the year was $96.24 on 2026-11-04, the day of the $97.85 intraday 52-week high. Closes have eased since: $91.53 on 2026-11-05, $89.93 on 2026-11-06 and $86.50 on 2026-11-10, the lowest close since that high. No company news or filing explains the 2026-11-10 drop.\n\nThe last close is above the 50-day moving average of $79.93 and the 200-day moving average of $69.42, both as of 2026-11-11 on adjusted daily closes. The shares are up 9.5% over three months, from $80.67 on 2026-08-13, and far above the 52-week closing low of $44.05 on 2026-02-18. The case turns on whether the shares hold the post-report range in the high $80s until industry holiday spending data arrives after Black Friday on 2026-11-27.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **2026-11-27:** Black Friday, followed by Cyber Monday on 2026-11-30. Industry holiday e-commerce spending data is the first outside check on Etsy's $3.46-$3.52 billion fourth-quarter GMS guidance.\n- **~2027-02-25 (est.):** Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 report. Shows whether holiday GMS met or beat guidance, whether active buyer growth continued past 1.0%, and what Etsy expects for 2027.\n- **2027-03-01:** Reported departure date of Chief Financial Officer Lanny Baker. Shows whether a successor is in place and whether capital-return plans stay unchanged under new finance leadership.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close below $84, under the $86.50 close of 2026-11-10 that was the lowest since the 2026-11-04 high, which would show the market giving back the third-quarter gain; or fourth-quarter marketplace GMS below the $3.46 billion low end of guidance.\n\nThe risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:\n\n- Buyer growth fades after one quarter, leaving growth dependent on fees and existing buyers spending more. Confirmed by: Trailing-twelve-month active buyers at or below about 87 million at the fourth-quarter report.\n- Holiday-quarter sales miss as GMS growth slows from 8.8% toward the guided 5%-7%. Confirmed by: Fourth-quarter GMS below $3.46 billion, or weak industry Black Friday and Cyber Monday e-commerce data.\n- Pressure on discretionary spending pulls the sector down together. Confirmed by: Hotter inflation prints or higher rates, with consumer discretionary and e-commerce peers falling together.\n- A finance leadership change during a restructuring disrupts execution. Confirmed by: No successor named before the CFO's reported 2027-03-01 departure, or a change in capital-return guidance.\n- Continued insider selling signals management sees limited further gain. Confirmed by: Further open-market sales by directors or executives outside Rule 10b5-1 plans, with no insider purchases, in Form 4 filings through the fourth-quarter report.\n\n## Correlation Notes\nEtsy trades with consumer discretionary and e-commerce shares. Its sales of gifts and non-essential goods depend on household budgets, inflation and interest rates. eBay, which bought Depop from Etsy on 2026-07-30, is the closest listed marketplace peer. A broad sell-off in discretionary retail would likely pull Etsy down whatever its own results show. Its buyback and roughly 30% adjusted EBITDA margin set it apart from loss-making online retailers.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-10",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-12T16:27:52+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-12",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-12",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}