{
  "@context": "https://orbyd.app/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "EVER",
  "name": "EverQuote, Inc.",
  "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/EVER/",
  "json_url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/EVER.json",
  "status": "DORMANT",
  "current_conviction": "MEDIUM",
  "graded_conviction": null,
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a7",
    "n": 7
  },
  "current_thesis": "The 2026-08-03 Q2 print resolved the plateau binary bullish: revenue $195.1M (+25% YoY) broke the three-quarter ~$190M band, adjusted EBITDA hit a record $30.1M, and Q3 was guided $198–208M above the $201.6M consensus. The leg is now fundamental rather than technical — but price ($25.71 on 2026-08-07) sits below its December 2025 $27.87 high and on top of the $25.83 average target.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A weekly close below $23.82 gives back the reaction to the 2026-08-03 print and returns price under the June swing-high shelf. Thesis fully broken if Q3 revenue lands below the $198.0M guide floor, or adjusted EBITDA below $28.0M, at the ~early-November print.",
  "catalyst_date": "2026-08-10",
  "outcome": "OPEN",
  "outcome_date": null,
  "invalidation_fired": null,
  "themes": [
    "precision-biotech-therapeutics",
    "managed-care-health-services",
    "ai-datacenter-infrastructure"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "notes": [
    "EVER = EverQuote, Inc. (NASDAQ: EVER), online auto/home insurance lead-gen marketplace. The revenue driver is P&C carrier and agent acquisition budgets, not consumer credit or health services.",
    "Auto concentration: $172.1M of $195.1M Q2'26 revenue. Home & renters ($23.0M) grows faster but is too small to offset an auto ad-budget downturn.",
    "Insider Form 4s report Class A common stock; EverQuote has carried a dual-class structure since its 2018 IPO, so Class A economics and voting weight are not the same thing.",
    "July 2026 officer sales ran under Rule 10b5-1 plans (CAO plan adopted 2026-03-09), so they are scheduled rather than discretionary signals.",
    "Historically thin tape (~328K-646K average daily shares). Both up-gaps and down-gaps are amplified; fills away from the last print are common."
  ],
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\nThe binary flagged in the prior read resolved on 2026-08-03, and it resolved against the plateau case. Q2'26 revenue printed $195.1M, +25% YoY, above the $190.4M consensus and above the Q1'26 figure of $190.9M that had capped three consecutive quarters near $190M. Variable Marketing Dollars came in at $56.9M against $45.5M a year earlier; adjusted EBITDA hit a record $30.1M versus $22.0M in Q2'25, with margin at 15.4% against 14.0%. Diluted EPS was $0.53 against a $0.51 estimate, and GAAP net income was $19.2M. Management then guided Q3 revenue to $198.0–208.0M, a band whose midpoint sits above the $201.6M consensus.\n\nThat changes the shape of the read. Through June the case rested on the tape — a 2026-06-26 reclaim of the declining ~$20.30 200-day moving average, +6.91% to $23.20 on 2.64M shares against a ~646K average — over a revenue line that had stopped growing sequentially. The August print supplied the fundamental leg that was missing: the deceleration string of +83% → +34% → +20% → +32% → +15% turned back up to +25%, and the growth came from both verticals, auto $172.1M (+23%) and home & renters $23.0M (+35%).\n\nWhat the tape has not done is confirm with a new high. The last completed daily close was $25.71 on 2026-08-07, 7.8% under the $27.87 52-week high set in December 2025, with RSI(14) at 42.2 and a 3-month return of +25.4%. The average analyst target compiled by S&P Global across eight analysts is $25.83 — effectively where the stock closed. The narrative leg an investor buys here is the second act: that the AI-solutions push into P&C carrier workflows keeps revenue compounding toward the reiterated $1B target while the ad-spend cycle stays intact. That is a slower, more provable story than the 2024–25 snapback, and it now has to be earned quarter by quarter.\n\n**Life-cycle: MATURING.** The name has been publicly covered since 2026-05-06 in this series and far longer by the street; the 2026-08-03 beat and guide-up drew PT raises the following day (B. Riley to $34, Needham to $30) rather than new discovery, and price did not clear its December 2025 high on the news. Well known, still working, flow moderating.\n\n## Bull Case\n- **The plateau broke (2026-08-03):** Q2'26 revenue $195.1M, +25% YoY, above both the $190.4M consensus and Q1'26's $190.9M — the first clean sequential step out of the ~$190M band that had held for three quarters.\n- **Record profit dollars:** adjusted EBITDA $30.1M, +37% from $22.0M in Q2'25; margin 15.4% versus 14.0%. GAAP net income $19.2M, diluted EPS $0.53 against a $0.51 estimate.\n- **Unit economics improved, not just volume:** Variable Marketing Dollars $56.9M versus $45.5M in Q2'25, landing near the top of the $55–57M guide band set in May.\n- **Guide-up, not a guide-down after a beat:** Q3'26 revenue guided $198.0–208.0M, midpoint above the $201.6M consensus; VMD $56.0–59.0M; adjusted EBITDA $28.0–31.0M.\n- **Both verticals contributing (Q2'26):** auto $172.1M, +23%; home & renters $23.0M, +35%. The home leg is growing faster off a small base, which is the mix management has pointed at for TAM expansion.\n- **Balance sheet funds the story:** $192.3M cash and no debt at 2026-06-30, up from $178.5M at 2026-03-31, after repurchasing 578,000 shares for $9.1M during the quarter. CFO Joseph Sanborn reiterated the path to $1B in revenue in the 2026-08-03 release.\n- **Sell-side re-rated the same week:** B. Riley Securities reiterated Buy and raised its target to $34, Needham maintained Buy and raised to $30, both on 2026-08-04.\n\n## Bear Case\n- **Profit dollars were guided flat-to-down:** the Q3 adjusted EBITDA range of $28.0–31.0M brackets the Q2 record of $30.1M with its midpoint below it, while revenue is guided up sequentially. The VMD guide of $56.0–59.0M sits barely above the $56.9M just delivered. Incremental revenue is being bought with more marketing.\n- **Price did not confirm:** $25.71 close on 2026-08-07 is 7.8% below the $27.87 December 2025 high. A 25% revenue beat, a record EBITDA and a guide-up did not produce a new high in the four sessions that followed.\n- **Valuation caught up to the street:** the S&P Global consensus average target of $25.83 sits on the close. The upside case now depends on the $30–34 outliers being right rather than on a gap to the average.\n- **Coverage of the reaction was split:** Investing.com's 2026-08-03 earnings-call transcript ran under a \"shares slide\" headline; a StockStory note dated 2026-08-07 described a 9.4% intraday advance attributed to the same results. Choppy two-way tape around a beat is weak evidence of an expanding bid.\n\n- **Repurchase pace halved:** $9.1M of buybacks in Q2 against $19.9M in Q1'26, despite a larger cash balance.\n- **Single-cycle exposure:** $172.1M of $195.1M Q2 revenue came from auto. The revenue line is carrier and agent customer-acquisition budgets, which compress when P&C underwriting margins compress.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n- Last completed daily close $25.71 (2026-08-07). 52-week high $27.87, set in December 2025; distance -7.8%. Three-month return +25.4%. RSI(14) 42.2 — a mid-range momentum reading, well short of overbought, which is unusual for a stock this close to a 52-week high and describes a tape that has cooled since the print.\n- The 2026-06-26 reclaim of the ~$20.30 200-DMA (+6.91% to $23.20 on 2.64M shares, roughly 4x the ~646K average) has held for six weeks and now sits far under the market.\n- The $23.82 June swing high, overhead resistance in the prior read, was cleared on the post-print advance. It is the first structural shelf beneath current price and the level that defines whether the reaction to 2026-08-03 survives.\n- Overhead: the $27.87 December 2025 high is the level that would mark the narrative re-accelerating rather than maturing. It has not been tested since the print.\n- Crowding observables, stated as observables: two target raises inside one session on 2026-08-04; an average consensus target ($25.83) sitting on the close; three named officers selling in the first eight days of July at $24.15–$24.63; a buyback that stepped down QoQ; historically thin average daily volume in the ~328K–646K range, which makes both directions gappy.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar (next 30 days)\n- **2026-08-08 to 2026-09-07 — no confirmed company-dated catalyst.** The Q2 release, guidance and Form 10-Q all landed on/around 2026-08-03. The window is empty of scheduled company events, so price action in it is flow and read-through rather than news.\n- **~2026-08-19 (est.) and ~mid-September (est.) — Progressive monthly results releases.** PGR reports monthly; its advertising and policy-acquisition commentary is the closest leading read on the carrier budgets that fund EverQuote's revenue. Exact dates not confirmed.\n- **~2026-11-02 (est.) — Q3 FY2026 print.** The next company binary: whether revenue lands inside $198.0–208.0M and whether adjusted EBITDA clears the $30.1M Q2 record or settles into the $28.0–31.0M guided range.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\nThe structure that has to fail first is the shelf the August print created. Giving back the entire reaction to 2026-08-03 would say the market rejected a 25% revenue quarter, a record EBITDA and a guide-up — and at that point the fundamental leg has no tape behind it. Concretely: **a weekly close below $23.82** puts price back under the June swing high and negates the post-print structure. A secondary condition is the margin question — Q3 adjusted EBITDA printing at or below the $28.0M guide floor, or Q3 revenue below $198.0M, would reinstate the plateau read that the August quarter retired. On the other side, a daily close above $27.87 on expanding volume would re-date the life-cycle label from MATURING toward ACCELERATING, because it would mean new money is paying above the December 2025 high rather than rotating within the existing holder base.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n- **MediaAlpha (MAX)** is the closest public comparable — same insurance customer-acquisition marketplace model, same carrier ad-spend cycle. Divergence between the two on a shared quarter is information about company-specific execution.\n- **Progressive (PGR) and Allstate (ALL)** are the demand side. Their acquisition-spend disclosures lead EverQuote's revenue; a carrier signalling lower advertising is the upstream warning.\n- **Root (ROOT), Lemonade (LMND) and the insurtech complex** trade on a related risk appetite, but their loss-ratio drivers are different — correlation is sentiment-level, not mechanical.\n- Despite the AI-solutions framing in management's language, this is not an AI-infrastructure name; any correlation to semiconductor or hyperscaler tape is incidental and should not be traded as read-through.\n- Theme classification has drifted across consumer-discretionary, consumer-credit and health-services labels in automated tagging. The operative driver is P&C carrier and agent acquisition budgets; anything else mis-frames the cycle the stock is exposed to.",
  "first_seen": "2026-05-06",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-08-08T15:27:23+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-08-08",
  "last_update_source": "watchlist_research",
  "license": "Content © orbyd. Cite the canonical URL."
}