{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "EVGO",
  "name": "EVgo Inc.",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/EVGO/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/EVGO.json",
  "status": "DORMANT",
  "current_conviction": "MEDIUM",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a5",
    "n": 5
  },
  "current_thesis": "EVgo's shares track majority owner LS Power's $2.00-per-share cash take-private offer and closed at $1.75 on 12 November 2026, below it. The special committee's answer settles the case: a signed deal at $2.00 closes the gap, while a withdrawal returns the shares to a shrinking standalone business.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close below $1.50, which would erase most of the gain since the 2026-11-02 offer. LS Power withdrawing its $2.00 proposal, the special committee rejecting it, or a signed agreement below $2.00 would also show the case failing.",
  "catalyst_date": null,
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [
    "m-and-a-special-situations"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "caveats": [],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "EVgo Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001821159/000182115926000027/lspower-proposalletter.htm",
      "date": "2026-11-02"
    },
    {
      "title": "EVgo Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001821159/000182115926000032/exhibit991evgoearningsrele.htm",
      "date": "2026-11-09"
    },
    {
      "title": "EVgo Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001821159/000182115926000027/exhibit991pressrelease2026.htm",
      "date": "2026-11-02"
    },
    {
      "title": "RBC downgrades EVgo stock rating on slower deployment pace",
      "url": "https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/rbc-downgrades-evgo-stock-rating-on-slower-deployment-pace-93CH-5014162",
      "date": "2026-11-10"
    },
    {
      "title": "EVgo Shares Fall After Downgrades From BMO Capital, Roth Capital, RBC",
      "url": "https://www.marketscreener.com/news/evgo-shares-fall-after-downgrades-from-bmo-capital-roth-capital-rbc-ce785edad18ff321",
      "date": "2026-11-10"
    },
    {
      "title": "EVgo (EVGO) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript",
      "url": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/11/09/evgo-evgo-q3-2026-earnings-call-transcript/",
      "date": "2026-11-09"
    },
    {
      "title": "EVgo Soars 48% on $2-a-Share Buyout Offer From LS Power; ChargePoint Jumps 10%, Blink Charging Rallies 7%",
      "url": "https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/11/02/evgo-soars-48-on-2-a-share-buyout-offer-from-ls-power-chargepoint-jumps-10-blink-charging-rallies-7/",
      "date": "2026-11-02"
    },
    {
      "title": "Finviz",
      "url": "https://finviz.com/news/413403/evgos-q3-report-tests-whether-a-strong-charging-business-can-offset-a-guidance-cut",
      "date": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $91.4 million, down 1% year on year; charging network revenue rose 29% to $71.8 million; net loss widened to $49.2 million from $28.4 million.",
      "source": "EVgo Q3 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1",
      "as_of": "2026-11-09"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Full-year 2026 revenue guidance cut to $375 million–$400 million from $400 million–$430 million, against a $406.9 million consensus estimate.",
      "source": "Benzinga, 2026-11-09",
      "as_of": "2026-11-09"
    },
    {
      "claim": "2026 guidance is 1,075–1,275 new stalls, down from 1,350–1,625, and adjusted EBITDA of a $15 million to $30 million loss.",
      "source": "EVgo Q3 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1",
      "as_of": "2026-11-09"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Cash and equivalents were $98.7 million, down from $151.0 million at 2025 year-end; noncurrent long-term debt rose to $312.3 million from $204.3 million.",
      "source": "EVgo Q3 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "LS Power's $2.00 offer is a 62% premium to the 30-day VWAP and 59% to the 2026-10-30 close; LS Power will not proceed without a special committee recommendation.",
      "source": "LS Power proposal letter, Form 8-K",
      "as_of": "2026-11-02"
    },
    {
      "claim": "RBC cut EVgo to Sector Perform from Outperform and raised its target to $2.00 from $1.75; Roth cut to Neutral with a $2.00 target. Q3 throughput was 103 GWh against a 119 GWh consensus.",
      "source": "Investing.com, 2026-11-10",
      "as_of": "2026-11-10"
    },
    {
      "claim": "BMO Capital downgraded EVgo to Sell from Hold.",
      "source": "MarketScreener (MT Newswires), 2026-11-10",
      "as_of": "2026-11-10"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Stifel downgraded EVgo to Hold and lowered its price target to $2.50.",
      "source": "Benzinga, 2026-11-12",
      "as_of": "2026-11-12"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [],
  "frame": null,
  "filed_numbers": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-13",
    "sector": "Consumer Cyclical",
    "financials": {
      "status": "ok",
      "reason": null,
      "close_date": "2026-11-13",
      "latest_quarter": "2026-09-30",
      "figures": {
        "revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-09",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 91.4,
              "yoy_pct": -1
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-06",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 82.6,
              "yoy_pct": -15.7
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-05-05",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 109.5,
              "yoy_pct": 45.5
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-03-09",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 118.5,
              "yoy_pct": 75.5
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-11-10",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 92.3,
              "yoy_pct": 36.7
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-08-05",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 98,
              "yoy_pct": 47.2
            }
          ]
        },
        "gross_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-09",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 14.9
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-06",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 8.9
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-05-05",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 11.8
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-03-09",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 38
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-11-10",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 13.6
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-08-05",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 14.2
            }
          ]
        },
        "operating_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-09",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -54.1
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-06",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -48.6
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-05-05",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -33.2
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-03-09",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -10.4
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-11-10",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -36.9
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-08-05",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -31.4
            }
          ]
        },
        "pretax_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "value_musd": -52.2
        },
        "net_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "four_quarters_end": "2026-09-30",
          "value_musd": -20.3,
          "four_quarters_musd": -62.3
        },
        "operating_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": -45.8
        },
        "capital_spending": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 148.6
        },
        "free_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": -194.4
        },
        "diluted_share_change": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "base_end": "2025-09-30",
          "pct": 5.2
        },
        "cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "value_musd": 98.7
        },
        "debt": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "value_musd": 316.6,
          "composition": "long-term debt"
        },
        "net_cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "value_musd": -217.9
        },
        "deferred_revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "value_musd": 74.1,
          "yoy_pct": -35.3
        },
        "backlog": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "value_musd": 53,
          "yoy_pct": -37.4
        },
        "receivables": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "value_musd": 27.8
        },
        "inventory": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "equity": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "value_musd": 7.1
        },
        "market_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-09-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-09",
          "value_musd": 246.8
        },
        "enterprise_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-09-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-09",
          "value_musd": 464.7
        },
        "ev_sales": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-09-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-09",
          "multiple": 1.2
        },
        "ev_ebit": {
          "status": "not meaningful"
        },
        "pe": {
          "status": "not meaningful"
        },
        "pb": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-09-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-09",
          "multiple": 34.9
        },
        "fcf_yield": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-09-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-09",
          "pct": -78.8
        }
      }
    },
    "short_interest": {
      "status": "ok",
      "settlement": "2026-10-15",
      "published": "2026-10-26",
      "short_pct_of_outstanding": 24.43,
      "days_to_cover": 10.2,
      "change_pct": 10.8
    },
    "insiders": {
      "status": "ok",
      "as_of": "2026-11-15",
      "windows": [
        {
          "days": 90,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2026-08-18",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 0,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        },
        {
          "days": 365,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2025-11-16",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 0,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\nEVgo's shares trade on whether its majority owner, LS Power, signs its $2.00-per-share cash take-private. The shares closed at $1.75 on 2026-11-12, below the offer, and the special committee's answer decides whether that gap closes. The rating is Medium because a weakening standalone business gives the committee little ground to refuse, while the proposal is still non-binding and has no announced timetable.\n\nThe 2026-11-09 third-quarter report missed estimates and cut full-year guidance. Four brokers downgraded the shares within three days, and three of them now put their targets at or near the offer. At $1.75 on 2026-11-12 the market prices a signed deal as likely but not certain: the shares sit below the $2.00 offer and well above the $1.02 closing low of 2026-10-23, set days before the offer.\n\n## Bull Case\n- **The buyer says it is ready now.** LS Power's 2026-11-02 letter says \"time is of the essence\" and that it is prepared to move immediately. The letter, filed with EVgo's 8-K, also says LS Power has no interest in selling its stake or in any other change-of-control deal.\n- **The offer carries a large premium.** The $2.00 price is a 62% premium to the 30-day volume-weighted average price and a 59% premium to the 2026-10-30 close, according to the proposal letter.\n- **A weaker business strengthens the offer.** On 2026-11-09 EVgo cut full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $375 million–$400 million, from $400 million–$430 million, against a $406.9 million consensus estimate, Benzinga reported. Third-quarter charging throughput was 103 gigawatt-hours against a 119 gigawatt-hour consensus, RBC noted on 2026-11-10, per Investing.com.\n- **Brokers now value the shares at the offer.** On 2026-11-10 Roth cut the shares to Neutral with a $2.00 target, and RBC cut them to Sector Perform while raising its target to $2.00 from $1.75 to reflect the offer, Investing.com reported. A standalone value at or below $2.00 gives the committee a reason to accept.\n- **The balance sheet adds pressure to settle.** Cash fell to $98.7 million on 2026-09-30 from $151.0 million at 2025 year-end, while noncurrent long-term debt rose to $312.3 million from $204.3 million, per the third-quarter release.\n\n## Bear Case\n- **The proposal can still be withdrawn.** The letter is non-binding and may be withdrawn or changed at any time. LS Power will not proceed unless the special committee recommends the deal, per the 2026-11-02 letter.\n- **The fallback value is falling.** Third-quarter revenue was $91.4 million, down 1% year on year and below the $94.5 million estimate, and the net loss widened to $49.2 million from $28.4 million, per the 2026-11-09 release. If talks fail, the shares return to a business with a shrinking outlook.\n- **Deployment plans were cut sharply.** EVgo now guides to 1,075–1,275 new stalls in 2026, per the 2026-11-09 release, down from 1,350–1,625 in earlier guidance. Management cited slower EV sales and weaker charging activity.\n- **One broker now rates the shares Sell.** BMO Capital moved EVgo to Sell from Hold on 2026-11-10, MarketScreener reported. A Sell call on a stock under a cash offer signals doubt about the deal or its price.\n- **Minority holders have an anchor above $2.00.** Stifel downgraded EVgo to Hold on 2026-11-12 but set a $2.50 target, Benzinga reported, and the 52-week intraday high is $3.54 from 2025-12-05. The letter does not mention a majority-of-the-minority vote, and LS Power holds about 56% of the voting power.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\nEVgo closed at $1.75 on 2026-11-12, down from $1.84 on 2026-11-11, in the session that Stifel's downgrade was reported. Closes held between $1.82 and $1.84 from 2026-11-06 to 2026-11-11, through the earnings miss and the 2026-11-10 downgrades. The shares rose 50.3% to $1.89 intraday on 2026-11-02 on the offer, Benzinga reported.\n\nOver three months the shares are up 6.1%, from a $1.65 close on 2026-08-14. The last close sits above the 50-day moving average of $1.38 and below the 200-day moving average of $1.87, both from adjusted daily closes as of 2026-11-12. The last close is 50.6% below the 52-week intraday high of $3.54 set on 2025-12-05. The 52-week closing low is $1.02 on 2026-10-23.\n\nParts of the business still improve. Charging network revenue rose 29% to $71.8 million in the third quarter, and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) was a $3.5 million loss against a $5.0 million loss a year earlier, per the 2026-11-09 release. Full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance is a loss of $15 million to $30 million. Management said on the 2026-11-09 call that it plans to spend about $100 million less on gross capital in 2026 than earlier planned.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **~2026-12-08 (est.):** Special committee response or definitive merger agreement with LS Power. A signed deal at $2.00 or more would close most of the remaining gap to the offer; a rejection or withdrawal would send the shares back toward the pre-offer price.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close below $1.50, which would erase most of the gain since the 2026-11-02 offer. LS Power withdrawing its $2.00 proposal, the special committee rejecting it, or a signed agreement below $2.00 would also show the case failing.\n\nThe risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:\n\n- LS Power withdraws its non-binding $2.00 proposal, or the parties fail to agree terms. Confirmed by: A Form 8-K or press release reporting a withdrawal or the end of talks.\n- Further operating deterioration leads LS Power to lower its price before signing. Confirmed by: A definitive agreement or revised proposal below $2.00 per share.\n- Minority holders resist $2.00, delaying the deal or blocking a vote. Confirmed by: A large holder publicly opposing the offer, or a merger agreement with a majority-of-the-minority condition drawing organised opposition.\n- A long process keeps the gap to the offer open beyond three months. Confirmed by: No definitive agreement and no committee update by mid-January 2027.\n- Slowing EV sales cut charging demand further and weaken the standalone fallback value. Confirmed by: Another cut to 2026 revenue or stall guidance, or a fourth-quarter throughput figure below the third quarter's 103 GWh.\n\n## Correlation Notes\nSince 2026-11-02 EVgo's price has followed the deal. On the offer day ChargePoint rose 10% and Blink Charging rose 7% in sympathy, 24/7 Wall St. reported, but EVgo's move came from the proposal itself. Weaker EV sales, which management cited on 2026-11-09, matter to the shares mainly if they lead LS Power to lower its price or withdraw. Deal-specific filings, such as a committee update, a revised proposal or a merger agreement on Form 8-K, drive the shares until the committee answers.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-10",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-12T23:00:33+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-12",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-12",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}