{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "GCTS",
  "name": "GCT Semiconductor Holding, Inc.",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GCTS/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GCTS.json",
  "status": "DORMANT",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a7",
    "n": 7
  },
  "current_thesis": "GCT Semiconductor's third-quarter revenue of $1.069 million missed estimates and management pushed the 5G chipset ramp into the first half of 2027, so the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500; fourth-quarter revenue and 5G purchase orders settle it.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close above $1.88, over the 200-day moving average, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 despite the delayed ramp. Fourth-quarter 2026 revenue well above the $1.069 million of the third quarter would also show the shares leading.",
  "catalyst_date": null,
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "caveats": [],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "SEC EDGAR",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1851961/000092963826004266/exhibit99-1.htm",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Earnings call transcript: GCT Semiconductor Q3 2026 shares sink on slow ramp",
      "url": "https://uk.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/earnings-call-transcript-gct-semiconductor-q3-2026-shares-sink-on-slow-ramp-93CH-4979058",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "GCT Semiconductor Reports Q3 2026 Revenue of $1.1 Million, Misses Estimates",
      "url": "https://www.gurufocus.com/news/9195669/gct-semiconductor-reports-q3-2026-revenue-of-11-million-misses-estimates-gaap-eps-at-030-beats-analyst-expectations",
      "date": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $1.069 million, up 148.6% from $430 thousand a year earlier; gross loss was $84 thousand.",
      "source": "GCT 8-K exhibit 99.1, SEC EDGAR",
      "as_of": "2026-11-12"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Cash and equivalents were $17.2 million at 2026-09-30; net cash used in operating activities was $8.5 million in the third quarter against $16.6 million in the second.",
      "source": "GCT 8-K exhibit 99.1, SEC EDGAR",
      "as_of": "2026-11-12"
    },
    {
      "claim": "More than 3,200 5G chipsets shipped in the third quarter and more than 11,300 year to date; the 5G ramp is now expected to extend into the first half of 2027.",
      "source": "GCT 8-K exhibit 99.1, SEC EDGAR",
      "as_of": "2026-11-12"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Revenue of $1.069 million missed a $1.314 million estimate; the loss of $0.08 per share compared with a $0.10 loss estimate.",
      "source": "Benzinga headline",
      "as_of": "2026-11-12"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Net loss was $7.4 million, including a $6.2 million gain on warrant liabilities and a $5.4 million foreign-currency loss.",
      "source": "GCT 8-K exhibit 99.1, SEC EDGAR",
      "as_of": "2026-11-12"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Management guided fourth-quarter revenue flat to up from the third quarter; the shares closed at $1.54 on 2026-11-12 and fell to $1.25 after hours.",
      "source": "Investing.com earnings call transcript summary",
      "as_of": "2026-11-12"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Long-term debt was $60 million, cash and short-term investments $17 million, equity negative $59 million; free cash flow was negative $43 million over four quarters; diluted share count rose 65.6% from a year earlier.",
      "source": "GCT 10-Q for the quarter ended 2026-09-30",
      "as_of": "2026-11-12"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [],
  "frame": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-14",
    "business": "GCT Semiconductor designs 5G and 4G cellular chipsets and sells them to makers of modems, tablets and other connected devices. Revenue comes from chip sales and was $1.1 million in the quarter to 2026-09-30 (10-Q filed 2026-11-12).",
    "change": {
      "now": "On 2026-11-12 the company reported third-quarter revenue of $1.069 million and said the 5G chipset ramp now extends into the first half of 2027 as customers take longer to integrate.",
      "next": "Cash and short-term investments were $17 million against $60 million of long-term debt at 2026-09-30; free cash flow was negative $43 million over the four quarters to that date.",
      "linked": "Customer integration sets the pace: Investing.com's call summary says one customer has launched and four more move toward launches; the company's results name no listed customer or supplier."
    },
    "priced_in": "At the 2026-11-13 close (filed inputs to 2026-11-12): market value $116 million; enterprise value $159 million; EV/sales 33.6; free-cash-flow yield −37.1%; EV/EBIT and P/E not meaningful. Holding that needs revenue to rise many times above about $1 million a quarter while the operating margin, now −689.6%, narrows sharply.",
    "links": {
      "customers": [],
      "suppliers": [],
      "competitors": []
    }
  },
  "filed_numbers": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-13",
    "sector": "Technology",
    "financials": {
      "status": "ok",
      "reason": null,
      "close_date": "2026-11-13",
      "latest_quarter": "2026-09-30",
      "figures": {
        "revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-12",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 1.1,
              "yoy_pct": 148.6
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-10",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 1,
              "yoy_pct": -17.9
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-05-12",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 1.9,
              "yoy_pct": 287.1
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-03-25",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 0.8,
              "yoy_pct": -57.5
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-11-12",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 0.4,
              "yoy_pct": -83.5
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-08-12",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 1.2,
              "yoy_pct": -19.5
            }
          ]
        },
        "gross_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-12",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -7.9
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-10",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -23.3
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-05-12",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 49.3
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-03-25",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -162.7
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-11-12",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -244.2
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-08-12",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 32
            }
          ]
        },
        "operating_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-12",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -689.6
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-10",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -763.6
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-05-12",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -319.4
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-03-25",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -1577
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-11-12",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -2152.1
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-08-12",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -642.3
            }
          ]
        },
        "pretax_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-12",
          "value_musd": -7.3
        },
        "net_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-12",
          "four_quarters_end": "2026-09-30",
          "value_musd": -7.4,
          "four_quarters_musd": -46.6
        },
        "operating_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-12",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": -39.7
        },
        "capital_spending": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-12",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 3.4
        },
        "free_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-12",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": -43.2
        },
        "diluted_share_change": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-12",
          "base_end": "2025-09-30",
          "pct": 65.6
        },
        "cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-12",
          "value_musd": 17.2
        },
        "debt": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-12",
          "value_musd": 59.6,
          "composition": "long-term debt"
        },
        "net_cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-12",
          "value_musd": -42.5
        },
        "deferred_revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-12",
          "value_musd": 0.1,
          "yoy_pct": 445.5
        },
        "backlog": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "receivables": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-12",
          "value_musd": 0.5
        },
        "inventory": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-12",
          "value_musd": 3.3
        },
        "equity": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-12",
          "value_musd": -58.7
        },
        "market_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-11-06",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-12",
          "value_musd": 116.2
        },
        "enterprise_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-11-06",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-12",
          "value_musd": 158.7
        },
        "ev_sales": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-11-06",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-12",
          "multiple": 33.6
        },
        "ev_ebit": {
          "status": "not meaningful"
        },
        "pe": {
          "status": "not meaningful"
        },
        "pb": {
          "status": "not meaningful"
        },
        "fcf_yield": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-11-06",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-12",
          "pct": -37.1
        }
      }
    },
    "short_interest": {
      "status": "ok",
      "settlement": "2026-10-15",
      "published": "2026-10-26",
      "short_pct_of_outstanding": 12.9,
      "days_to_cover": 7.3,
      "change_pct": 9.9
    },
    "insiders": {
      "status": "ok",
      "as_of": "2026-11-15",
      "windows": [
        {
          "days": 90,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2026-08-18",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 0,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        },
        {
          "days": 365,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2025-11-16",
          "bought_usd": 58058.24,
          "sold_usd": 0,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\nGCT Semiconductor's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months, because the 5G chipset ramp has slipped into the first half of 2027 and the company still burns far more cash than it brings in. Fourth-quarter revenue and the conversion of 5G customer programs into purchase orders settle the case.\n\nThe third-quarter report of 2026-11-12 showed revenue of $1.069 million, up from $430 thousand a year earlier but below the $1.314 million estimate reported by Benzinga. The 8-K (exhibit 99.1) shows a gross loss of $84 thousand. Management guided fourth-quarter revenue flat to up from the third quarter, per Investing.com's call summary.\n\nThe shares closed at $1.54 on 2026-11-12 and at $1.26 on 2026-11-13, the first session after the report. They are down 39.7% over three months, from a close of $2.09 on 2026-08-17.\n\n## Bull Case\n- **Revenue is growing from a year earlier.** Revenue of $1.069 million in the quarter to 2026-09-30 compares with $430 thousand a year earlier, per the 2026-11-12 8-K. Revenue was $1.0 million in the second quarter.\n- **Cash burn slowed.** Net cash used in operations was $8.5 million in the third quarter against $16.6 million in the second, per the 2026-11-12 release. Cash and equivalents were $17.2 million at 2026-09-30.\n- **Wafer supply is secured into 2027.** The company said it has wafer capacity it believes is sufficient for expected demand through the first half of 2027, per the 2026-11-12 release. Investing.com's call summary says four more customers are moving toward launches, besides one already launched.\n- **Fourth-quarter revenue is guided flat to up.** Management said on the 2026-11-12 call that revenue should be flat to up from the third quarter, with 4G revenue growing through 2027.\n\n## Bear Case\n- **The 5G ramp slipped again.** The 2026-11-12 release says the ramp now extends into the first half of 2027 because customers are taking longer to integrate the chipsets. In August the company had said second-half shipments would exceed the first half.\n- **5G shipments fell from the previous quarter.** GCT shipped more than 3,200 5G chipsets in the third quarter against more than 5,100 in the second, per its 2026-11-12 and 2026-08-10 releases. Management described the third-quarter units as mainly pre-production or sampling, per Investing.com.\n- **Funding is thin against the burn.** Cash and short-term investments were $17 million against $60 million of long-term debt at 2026-09-30, and free cash flow was negative $43 million over the four quarters to that date, per the 10-Q filed 2026-11-12. Equity was negative $59 million.\n- **Dilution is already large.** The diluted share count rose 65.6% from a year earlier in the quarter to 2026-09-30, per the 10-Q.\n- **The loss is flattered by a non-operating gain.** The $0.08 loss per share included a $6.2 million gain on warrant liabilities, partly offset by a $5.4 million foreign-currency loss, per the 8-K exhibit. The operating margin was negative 689.6%.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n\nThe shares closed at $1.26 on 2026-11-13, down from $1.54 on 2026-11-12. They had closed at $1.16 on 2026-11-06, $1.38 on 2026-11-09 and $1.45 on 2026-11-10, so the post-report session gave back most of the early-November rebound.\n\nThe 50-day moving average is $1.72 and the 200-day moving average is $1.83, both as of the 2026-11-13 close, so the shares sit below both. The 52-week high is $3.93 (intraday, 2026-05-28), and the last close is 67.9% below it. The 52-week closing low is $0.99 on 2026-01-26, 27 cents under the last close.\n\nSEC Form 4 filings since mid-August show only grants: 150,000 shares to the CEO and 75,000 to the Sr. VP of Sales and Marketing on 2026-09-10, and 12,971 shares to each of six directors on 2026-09-30. No open-market insider purchases or sales are listed.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **~2027-03-31 (est.):** Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results and annual report. Shows whether fourth-quarter revenue rose above the $1.069 million of the third quarter and whether the 5G ramp timing held at the first half of 2027.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close above $1.88, over the 200-day moving average, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 despite the delayed ramp. Fourth-quarter 2026 revenue well above the $1.069 million of the third quarter would also show the shares leading.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n\nGCT trades on its own company news more than on sector moves. Revenue near $1 million a quarter is small, so a single customer launch or delay moves the shares sharply, as the rebound from 2026-11-06 to 2026-11-12 and the fall on 2026-11-13 show.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-10",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-14T08:34:41+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-14",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-14",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}