{ "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json", "ticker": "GKOS", "name": "Glaukos Corporation", "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GKOS/", "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GKOS.json", "status": "WATCHLIST", "current_conviction": "MEDIUM", "archetype": { "code": "a7", "n": 7 }, "current_thesis": "Glaukos's iDose TR glaucoma implant and Epioxa keratoconus therapy lifted third-quarter 2026 sales 58% to $211.0 million, giving the shares a modest edge on a $1 billion 2027 outlook. Medicare's pending iDose TR coverage decision and Epioxa's fourth-quarter sales settle the case.", "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close below $205, under the $211.00 opening price of 2026-10-29, the first session after the report, which would give back most of the post-earnings repricing; or final Medicare LCDs that sharply restrict iDose TR coverage.", "catalyst_date": "2026-11-18", "portfolio": null, "pick": null, "themes": [ "medtech-diagnostics" ], "tags": [], "sources": [], "caveats": [], "source_links": [ { "title": "Stock Titan", "url": "https://www.stocktitan.net/news/GKOS/glaukos-announces-participation-in-upcoming-investor-36k47f60rw54.html", "date": "2026-11-03" }, { "title": "GLAUKOS Corp - Form 10-Q - FY2026", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001192448/000119312526436400/gkos-20260930.htm", "date": null }, { "title": "MACs Propose Limiting Coverage for iDose TR", "url": "https://www.market-scope.com/pages/news/9249/macs-propose-limiting-coverage-for-idose-tr", "date": null }, { "title": "Okta Set to Join S&P 500; Others to Join S&P MidCap 400 and S&P SmallCap 600", "url": "https://press.spglobal.com/2026-10-30-Okta-Set-to-Join-S-P-500-Others-to-Join-S-P-MidCap-400-and-S-P-SmallCap-600", "date": "2026-10-30" }, { "title": "GLAUKOS Corp - Form 4 - FY2026", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001192448/000119312526445949/ownership.xml", "date": null }, { "title": "Glaukos (GKOS) Stock Price, Chart & News", "url": "https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/gkos/", "date": null } ], "evidence": [ { "claim": "Third-quarter 2026 net sales were $211.03 million, up from $133.54 million a year earlier.", "source": "Glaukos Q3 2026 Form 10-Q", "as_of": "2026-09-30" }, { "claim": "2026 net sales guidance was raised to $775–785 million from $680–700 million, and preliminary 2027 net sales guidance was set at $1 billion.", "source": "Glaukos Q3 2026 earnings release", "as_of": "2026-10-28" }, { "claim": "iDose TR sales were about $76 million and Epioxa sales about $53 million in Q3 2026; full-year iDose revenue is expected in the low $280 millions.", "source": "Glaukos Q3 2026 earnings call", "as_of": "2026-10-28" }, { "claim": "Five Medicare contractors proposed iDose TR LCDs in May 2026 covering the implant only after failed selective laser trabeculoplasty and two topical medications.", "source": "Market Scope, MACs Propose Limiting Coverage for iDose TR", "as_of": "2026-07-04" }, { "claim": "Post-report broker targets: Truist $255, Needham $251, HC Wainwright $248, Citigroup $247, JPMorgan $240, Piper Sandler $240, BTIG $234, Wells Fargo $226, Stifel $225, Mizuho $225.", "source": "Benzinga analyst-action reports 2026-10-29; StockAnalysis", "as_of": "2026-10-30" }, { "claim": "Director Gilbert Kliman exercised options on 2,500 shares at $25.77 and sold 2,500 shares at $253.00 on 2026-11-04.", "source": "SEC Form 4 filed 2026-11-05", "as_of": "2026-11-04" }, { "claim": "Chief Development Officer Tomas Navratil sold 44,436 shares at an average $238.97 on 2026-10-30 after exercising options on 12,969 shares.", "source": "SEC Form 4 filed 2026-11-03", "as_of": "2026-10-30" }, { "claim": "Cash was $162.3 million and short-term investments $174.4 million; the balance sheet shows no borrowings line.", "source": "Glaukos Q3 2026 Form 10-Q", "as_of": "2026-09-30" } ], "view_changes": [], "frame": null, "filed_numbers": { "as_of": "2026-11-13", "sector": "Healthcare", "financials": { "status": "ok", "reason": null, "close_date": "2026-11-13", "latest_quarter": "2026-09-30", "figures": { "revenue": { "status": "ok", "quarters": [ { "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-28", "restated": null, "value_musd": 211, "yoy_pct": 58 }, { "end": "2026-06-30", "filed": "2026-07-29", "restated": null, "value_musd": 185.6, "yoy_pct": 49.5 }, { "end": "2026-03-31", "filed": "2026-04-30", "restated": null, "value_musd": 150.6, "yoy_pct": 41.2 }, { "end": "2025-12-31", "filed": "2026-02-23", "restated": null, "value_musd": 143.1, "yoy_pct": 35.7 }, { "end": "2025-09-30", "filed": "2025-10-31", "restated": null, "value_musd": 133.5, "yoy_pct": 38.1 }, { "end": "2025-06-30", "filed": "2025-08-04", "restated": null, "value_musd": 124.1, "yoy_pct": 29.7 } ] }, "gross_margin": { "status": "ok", "quarters": [ { "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-28", "restated": null, "pct": 85.2 }, { "end": "2026-06-30", "filed": "2026-07-29", "restated": null, "pct": 81.7 }, { "end": "2026-03-31", "filed": "2026-04-30", "restated": null, "pct": 77.9 }, { "end": "2025-12-31", "filed": "2026-02-23", "restated": null, "pct": -1.1 }, { "end": "2025-09-30", "filed": "2025-10-31", "restated": null, "pct": 78.4 }, { "end": "2025-06-30", "filed": "2025-08-04", "restated": null, "pct": 78.3 } ] }, "operating_margin": { "status": "ok", "quarters": [ { "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-28", "restated": null, "pct": 0.4 }, { "end": "2026-06-30", "filed": "2026-07-29", "restated": null, "pct": -9.3 }, { "end": "2026-03-31", "filed": "2026-04-30", "restated": null, "pct": -13.2 }, { "end": "2025-12-31", "filed": "2026-02-23", "restated": null, "pct": -97.7 }, { "end": "2025-09-30", "filed": "2025-10-31", "restated": null, "pct": -12.3 }, { "end": "2025-06-30", "filed": "2025-08-04", "restated": null, "pct": -18.3 } ] }, "pretax_income": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-28", "value_musd": 2.3 }, "net_income": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-28", "four_quarters_end": "2026-09-30", "value_musd": 2, "four_quarters_musd": -169.8 }, "operating_cash_flow": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-28", "first_end": "2025-12-31", "value_musd": 47.7 }, "capital_spending": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-28", "first_end": "2025-12-31", "value_musd": 11.7 }, "free_cash_flow": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-28", "first_end": "2025-12-31", "value_musd": 36 }, "diluted_share_change": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-28", "base_end": "2025-09-30", "pct": 6.6 }, "cash": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-28", "value_musd": 162.3 }, "debt": { "status": "not available" }, "net_cash": { "status": "not available" }, "deferred_revenue": { "status": "not reported" }, "backlog": { "status": "not reported" }, "receivables": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-28", "value_musd": 150 }, "inventory": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-28", "value_musd": 61 }, "equity": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-10-28", "value_musd": 717.3 }, "market_value": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-10-26", "basis_filed": "2026-10-28", "value_musd": 14545.9 }, "enterprise_value": { "status": "not available" }, "ev_sales": { "status": "not available" }, "ev_ebit": { "status": "not available" }, "pe": { "status": "not meaningful" }, "pb": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-10-26", "basis_filed": "2026-10-28", "multiple": 20.3 }, "fcf_yield": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-10-26", "basis_filed": "2026-10-28", "pct": 0.2 } } }, "short_interest": { "status": "ok", "settlement": "2026-10-15", "published": "2026-10-26", "short_pct_of_outstanding": 7.34, "days_to_cover": 4, "change_pct": 12.8 }, "insiders": { "status": "ok", "as_of": "2026-11-15", "windows": [ { "days": 90, "status": "ok", "from": "2026-08-18", "bought_usd": 0, "sold_usd": 14953066.24, "bought_unpriced": 0, "sold_unpriced": 0 }, { "days": 365, "status": "ok", "from": "2025-11-16", "bought_usd": 0, "sold_usd": 80560286.91, "bought_unpriced": 0, "sold_unpriced": 0 } ] } }, "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\nGlaukos has two launches carrying its growth: the iDose TR glaucoma implant and the Epioxa keratoconus therapy. Together they lifted third-quarter 2026 net sales 58% to $211.0 million and back a preliminary $1 billion 2027 sales outlook. That gives the shares a modest edge over the S&P 500. Two things settle the case: Medicare's pending coverage decision on iDose TR, and whether Epioxa's fourth-quarter sales beat its first full quarter.\n\nThe shares closed at $246.03 on 2026-11-12. That is 3.6% below the 52-week intraday high of $255.19, set on 2026-11-04. The rating is Medium because the growth and the raised guidance are filed facts. Against that, the coverage decision is still open and the price is above six of ten published broker targets. Management presented at the Stifel Healthcare Conference on 2026-11-10. Through 2026-11-12, no guidance change and no final Medicare coverage rule for iDose TR had been reported.\n\nOn what the market has priced in: Benzinga put the company's market value at $10.7 billion on 2026-10-29, with the shares at $237.26 during that session. At that value, the market assumes Glaukos reaches the $1 billion 2027 outlook and keeps Medicare coverage broad enough to support it.\n\n## Bull Case\n- **Guidance raised twice in three months.** The 2026-10-28 release raised 2026 net sales guidance to $775–785 million, from $680–700 million. It also set preliminary 2027 net sales guidance at $1 billion.\n- **iDose TR is already a large product line.** iDose TR sold about $76 million in the third quarter, per the 2026-10-28 earnings call. Management expects full-year iDose revenue in the low $280 millions.\n- **Epioxa ramped once billing began.** Epioxa sold about $53 million in the third quarter, per the 2026-10-28 call. That was its first full quarter after its Medicare billing code took effect on 2026-07-01.\n- **Most brokers lifted targets above $240.** On 2026-10-29, Benzinga reported new targets of $255 at Truist, $248 at HC Wainwright and $247 at Citigroup. Needham's target is $251. StockAnalysis lists JPMorgan at $240, up from $200.\n- **Cash funds both launches.** The third-quarter 10-Q shows $162.3 million of cash and $174.4 million of short-term investments at 2026-09-30, with no borrowings line.\n\n## Bear Case\n- **Medicare coverage for iDose TR is unresolved.** Five regional Medicare contractors proposed local coverage determinations (LCDs) for iDose TR in May 2026. Market Scope reported that the drafts cover the implant only after a failed selective laser trabeculoplasty (a laser procedure) and two topical medications.\n- **The drafts also limit combined procedures.** Market Scope reported that the proposals bar implanting iDose TR alongside other eye procedures, except cataract surgery. The contractors have until about May 2027 to finalize or withdraw the drafts.\n- **The price is above most targets.** The $246.03 close on 2026-11-12 is above six published targets: $240 at Piper Sandler and at JPMorgan, $234 at BTIG, $226 at Wells Fargo, and $225 at both Stifel and Mizuho.\n- **Insiders sold near the highs.** Chief Development Officer Tomas Navratil sold 44,436 shares at an average of $238.97 on 2026-10-30, per an SEC Form 4 filing. Director Gilbert Kliman exercised options and sold 2,500 shares at $253.00 on 2026-11-04, per a Form 4 filed on 2026-11-05.\n- **GAAP results trail non-GAAP results.** Litigation costs, including a resolution agreement with the University of California Regents, have kept GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) earnings well below the company's non-GAAP figures.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\nThe shares repriced after the 2026-10-28 report. Benzinga reported them up 30.8% at $237.26 during the 2026-10-29 session. They set the 52-week intraday high of $255.19 on 2026-11-04, then closed at $219.98 on 2026-11-05. They recovered to closes of $247.16 on 2026-11-11 and $246.03 on 2026-11-12.\n\nOn adjusted daily closes, the shares rose 33.3% over three months, from $184.53 on 2026-08-14. As of 2026-11-12, the 50-day moving average was $183.31 and the 200-day moving average was $146.63. The shares trade well above both. The 52-week closing low is $88.40, set on 2025-11-17.\n\nThe kill line sits below the opening price of 2026-10-29, the first session after the report. A close there would give back most of the post-earnings repricing. The $255.19 high of 2026-11-04 is the level above the current price.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **2026-11-18:** Jefferies Global Healthcare Conference, London, 10:00 a.m. GMT. A management session after the report; any comment on iDose TR coverage timing or Epioxa site activation updates the two questions the case turns on.\n- **2026-12-01:** Piper Sandler Annual Healthcare Conference, New York, 1:30 p.m. ET. A quarter-to-date read on Epioxa demand and iDose TR reimbursement before the fourth-quarter report.\n- **2026-12-02:** Citi Global Healthcare Conference, Miami, 3:00 p.m. ET. The last scheduled management appearance of 2026; any change in tone on the 2027 outlook would surface here.\n- **~2026-12-31 (est.):** Phase 2 readouts for the axitinib retina program and the iLution Demodex blepharitis program. Shows whether the pipeline adds value beyond iDose TR and Epioxa; a failure would leave the case resting on two launches.\n- **~2027-02 (est.):** Q4 2026 results and full 2027 guidance. Tests the $775–785 million 2026 guidance, whether Epioxa grows past about $53 million in its second full billing quarter, and whether the $1 billion 2027 outlook holds.\n- **~2027-05 (est.):** Deadline for Medicare contractors to finalize or withdraw the iDose TR LCDs drafted in May 2026. A restrictive final rule is the main risk to iDose TR growth and the 2027 outlook; a withdrawal would remove the overhang. A decision can come earlier.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close below $205, under the $211.00 opening price of 2026-10-29, the first session after the report, which would give back most of the post-earnings repricing; or final Medicare LCDs that sharply restrict iDose TR coverage.\n\nThe risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:\n\n- Medicare contractors finalize restrictive LCDs for iDose TR and cut the fee-for-service use that drove third-quarter growth. Confirmed by: Final LCDs keep the failed-laser and two-medication requirement, or management lowers its iDose revenue expectations.\n- Epioxa uptake stalls on prior-authorization friction and slow activation of buy-and-bill sites. Confirmed by: Q4 2026 Epioxa sales flat or below the roughly $53 million reported for Q3 2026.\n- The share price already discounts the 2027 outlook, leaving little room for a slower ramp. Confirmed by: Full 2027 guidance at the Q4 2026 report set below the preliminary $1 billion, or brokers cutting targets after management's December conference appearances.\n- Litigation costs keep GAAP profit well below non-GAAP results. Confirmed by: Further litigation charges disclosed in the Q4 2026 report.\n- Pipeline programs fail, narrowing growth to two launches. Confirmed by: Phase 2 axitinib or iLution data that miss their primary endpoints.\n\n## Correlation Notes\nGlaukos's drivers are specific to the company: Medicare coverage for iDose TR and the Epioxa rollout. Its listed medtech peers are Vericel, Enovis, OrthoPediatrics and AxoGen. They share a sector label with Glaukos, not its ophthalmology reimbursement drivers. Since 2026-11-04 the shares have been in the S&P MidCap 400, so flows into and out of mid-cap index funds now move them. A restrictive coverage decision would hit Glaukos on its own, whatever the rest of the group does.", "first_seen": "2026-11-10", "last_analyzed": "2026-11-12T23:02:31+00:00", "last_synthesized": "2026-11-12", "date_modified": "2026-11-12", "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL." }