{
  "@context": "https://orbyd.app/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "GLXY",
  "name": "Galaxy Digital Inc.",
  "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/GLXY/",
  "json_url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/GLXY.json",
  "status": "RECENTLY_EXITED",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "graded_conviction": "LOW",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a4",
    "n": 4
  },
  "current_thesis": "Legacy crypto-financials name re-rating to AI-data-center landlord: Phase I ~200MW at the Helios campus was delivered to CoreWeave on 2026-07-06, turning the ~$4.5B/15-yr lease from promise into live contracted revenue while shares still carry a crypto multiple. The re-rate is the leg to own, but price must reclaim ~$31 to confirm and an unpriced 265M-share registration caps rallies until absorbed.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A weekly close below $25 loses the June consolidation base and signals the AI-infra re-rate isn't drawing a bid; a BTC break under $60k or a slip in the Helios Phase II delivery cadence would compound the breakdown.",
  "catalyst_date": "2026-08-11",
  "outcome": "INVALIDATED",
  "outcome_date": "2026-05-08",
  "invalidation_fired": true,
  "themes": [
    "ai-datacenter-infrastructure",
    "crypto-exchanges-financials",
    "bitcoin-miners"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "notes": [
    "Dual-class structure: Class A trades on Nasdaq while LP units of Galaxy Digital Holdings LP are exchangeable into Class A, so the headline share count understates fully-exchanged float.",
    "A $500M at-the-market program under the S-3ASR filed 2026-05-08 lets management sell Class A shares at its discretion with no advance announcement required.",
    "The 265,061,636-share registration is a resale shelf — Galaxy receives no proceeds. Galaxy Group, controlled by CEO Michael Novogratz, registered its full 202.3M-share interest under it.",
    "Revenue is reported gross of trading pass-through — Q1 2026 revenue was $10.041B against a $216M net loss — so headline sales are not comparable to data-center peers on any multiple.",
    "Helios II notes pay first cash interest on 2027-02-01 while minimum rent on the project they fund is targeted for Q2 2027, leaving a funded but unearned interval.",
    "Float is 187.80M against 389.90M Class A shares outstanding, so short-interest percentages differ by roughly 2x depending on which denominator a source uses."
  ],
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\n\nTwo things have been simultaneously true since June: Galaxy is delivering the data-center build on schedule, and the equity is being marked down anyway. Helios Phase I went live for CoreWeave on 2026-07-06, Phase II is fully financed, and GLXY still closed $22.14 on 2026-08-04 — 18.1% below its 50-day average of $27.02 and 16.2% below its 200-day of $26.43, with those two averages now $0.59 apart and both overhead.\n\nThe level carried in the prior update is gone. A weekly close below $25 first printed the week ended 2026-07-03 at $24.59 and has repeated every week since, so the June consolidation no longer exists as structure. What replaced it is smaller and four sessions old: a shelf built off the 2026-07-29 close of $18.26, the lowest close since April, from which the stock has recovered 21.3%.\n\nEverything now compresses into one session. Consensus sits at a $0.20 per-share loss on $10.76B of revenue after a 55.56% downward EPS revision in the 30 days to 2026-07-29. This is the first report in which Helios lease revenue meets a reported segment line, and the first check on the roughly $90M of quarter-to-date adjusted EBITDA management flagged alongside Q1 results on 2026-04-28.\n\n## Bull Case\n\n- **Phase I is delivered contract revenue.** ~200 MW gross / 133 MW of critical IT handed to CoreWeave on 2026-07-06 under a 15-year lease, rent commencing Q2 2026.\n- **Phase II is funded and closed.** $3.507B of 9.875% senior secured notes due 2031-08-01 priced 2026-07-23 at 99.5 OID to yield 10%, financing two buildings and eight data halls with 400 MW of utility capacity in Dickens County, Texas. Phase II alone carries $10.4B of minimum contracted lease payments against an $8.63B market capitalisation on 2026-08-04.\n- **Power — the binding constraint across this cohort — is already permitted.** ERCOT approved an additional 830 MW at Helios, taking total approved capacity above 1.6 GW, disclosed with Q1 results on 2026-04-28.\n- **Land was added cheaply and disclosed.** McGregor, Texas, announced 2026-07-28: ~500 acres for about $7.5M, a 74 MW first phase with power deliveries starting 2028.\n- **The institutional franchise keeps compounding away from the tape.** BNY named Galaxy on 2026-08-04 to supply staking infrastructure inside its Digital Asset Custody platform and to act as design partner for the wider platform — subject to regulatory review, with no launch date given.\n- **Sell-side marks have not followed price down.** 16 analysts at Buy with a $40.75 average target on 2026-08-04, 84.1% above the close; Rosenblatt's 2026-08-03 reduction to $35 from $39 still rests on 23x its 2028 adjusted-EBITDA estimate and argues CoreWeave counterparty risk is over-discounted.\n\n## Bear Case\n\n- **Estimates were cut into the print.** EPS consensus fell 55.56% over the 30 days to 2026-07-29, with a -140% Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of #5.\n- **Delivery headlines are being sold.** The McGregor session closed $20.94 on 2026-07-28, down 7.75% from $22.70. The Helios II notes were expected to close that same day; the following session closed $18.26.\n- **Leverage arrived ahead of the rent.** Enterprise value read $11.75B on 2026-08-04 against $11.31B on 2026-07-31 as the notes settled, while market capitalisation fell. First cash interest on the 9.875% paper is due 2027-02-01; Phase II minimum rent is targeted for Q2 2027.\n- **Supply is structural.** Class A shares outstanding of 389.90M are up 39.64% year over year, with a $500M at-the-market program live at management's discretion and a 265,061,636-share resale shelf sitting behind it.\n- **The crypto book still sets the reported number.** Q1 2026 was a $216M net loss on $10.041B of gross revenue. BTC traded near $64,268 late on 2026-08-04, far under the $100,000 level Novogratz described on 2026-04-28 as hard to reclaim without a macro shift.\n- **Both trend averages are declining and price has not touched either since early July**, leaving no reclaimed reference above the current shelf.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n\nLife-cycle: **SATURATED.** Coverage is mainstream — 16 analysts, a Buy consensus, a $40.75 average target against a $22.14 close on 2026-08-04 — and three consecutive operating wins (Phase I completion 2026-07-06, the $3.507B financing 2026-07-23, McGregor 2026-07-28) produced progressively lower prices, with the stock 51.8% below its $45.92 52-week high. New megawatts are no longer buying new holders.\n\nStructure: the pivot is the 2026-07-29 low, $18.22 intraday and $18.26 on the close. From there, four sessions at $21.52, $21.01, $21.88 and $22.14 — including a 17.9% single-session reversal on 2026-07-30. Overhead sits the converged 50-day/200-day cluster at $26.43–$27.02 and the $25 shelf lost in early July.\n\nPositioning observables, stated without a verdict on them:\n\n- Short interest 27.04M shares — 14.40% of the 187.80M float, 6.94% of 389.90M shares outstanding, 3.79 days to cover — down from 29.01M in the prior reporting period.\n- Institutional ownership 73.28%; insider ownership 1.93%.\n\n- An options-implied ±10.77% earnings move for a print that lands before this session opens.\n- Five-year beta of 3.67, which keeps intraday direction tethered to the crypto tape regardless of Helios news flow.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar (next 30 days)\n\n- **2026-08-11** — CoreWeave Q2 2026 results, call 17:00 ET. Consensus revenue $2.56B (from $1.21B a year earlier) and a $1.27 per-share loss. The tenant's backlog, capex plan and financing commentary set the credit assumption under Galaxy's entire lease book.\n- **2026-08-14** — Q2 2026 13F filing deadline. Shows which institutions added or cut through the July de-rating.\n- **~2026-08-26 (est.)** — semi-monthly short-interest report covering the 2026-08-14 settlement date; tests whether the 29.01M → 27.04M decline continued through the print.\n\n## Elapsed catalysts\n\n- **2026-08-05** — Q2 2026 results pre-market, investor call 08:30 ET with CEO Michael Novogratz. Consensus: $0.20 per-share loss on $10.76B revenue. First quarter containing Helios lease revenue; the segment line is where the disclosed ~13.7% starting gross yield on cost meets reported numbers, and where the ~$90M preliminary quarter-to-date adjusted EBITDA figure gets settled. *(passed 4d ago)*\n- **~2026-08-07 (est.)** — Q2 2026 Form 10-Q. Discloses Class A share count and how much of the $500M ATM was drawn in a quarter that traded from $25.86 on 2026-07-01 to $18.26 on 2026-07-29. *(passed 2d ago)*\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nThe entire remaining structure is four sessions wide. A daily close below $18.26 undercuts the 2026-07-29 low, removes the base attempt, and puts the April print of $16.43 back in play; at that point the AI-infrastructure re-rate has been rejected by the tape across a full sequence of delivered milestones, and the SATURATED label starts sliding toward a broken one.\n\nOn the fundamental side, the specific datapoints that would break the frame: a Q2 data-center segment line materially short of what a ~13.7% starting gross yield on 133 MW of critical IT implies; adjusted EBITDA below the ~$90M management previewed on 2026-04-28; a 10-Q showing material ATM issuance struck below the July range; or CoreWeave guiding capex or lease commitments lower on 2026-08-11.\n\nWhat would argue the other way, with equal specificity: a weekly close back above the $26.43–$27.02 average cluster, a delivery headline that produces an up session on expanding volume rather than the 2026-07-28 pattern, or a Q2 segment disclosure that lets the lease book be valued separately from the trading business.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n\n- **Bitcoin.** A 3.67 five-year beta and a trading, lending and asset-management book whose P&L moves with digital-asset prices. BTC opened $63,464 and traded near $64,268 on 2026-08-04. Crypto direction still sets intraday GLXY, which is why AI-infrastructure milestones keep getting absorbed rather than repriced.\n- **CoreWeave.** Sole contracted tenant at Helios I and II. Galaxy's lease revenue is a single-name credit exposure, so CRWV's 2026-08-11 report and any rating action on it transmit directly into GLXY's terminal value.\n- **Neocloud and miner-turned-landlord cohort.** IREN, Cipher, Applied Digital and TeraWulf trade on the same contracted-megawatt frame; cohort multiple compression has repeatedly overridden company-specific delivery news through July.\n- **High-yield project credit.** The 9.875% 2031 notes priced to a 10% yield on 2026-07-23 set the marker for the next tranche. Wider spreads raise the cost of Phases III+ and McGregor before either earns rent.\n- **Crypto-financials comp set.** Exchange and brokerage peers still anchor how the market multiples the pre-pivot business, which is the gap the re-rate thesis has to close.",
  "first_seen": "2026-05-01",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-08-05T03:35:18+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-08-05",
  "last_update_source": "watchlist_research",
  "license": "Content © orbyd. Cite the canonical URL."
}