{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "GME",
  "name": "GameStop Corp.",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GME/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GME.json",
  "status": "WATCHLIST",
  "current_conviction": "MEDIUM",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a4",
    "n": 4
  },
  "current_thesis": "GameStop's shares hold modestly better-than-even odds of beating the S&P 500 on CEO Ryan Cohen's buying, $5.1 billion of cash and a 43.4 million-share eBay stake. The third-quarter report, projected for about 8 December 2026, settles whether collectibles growth holds.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close below $20.00, under Cohen's 2026-09-10 weighted purchase price of $20.38 where the insider-led run began; a Cohen share sale or a revived stock-funded GameStop offer for eBay would also break the case.",
  "catalyst_date": null,
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [
    "consumer-discretionary-rotation"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "caveats": [],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "GameStop an AI Stock? Dan Ives Says ‘Market Has Not Priced’ In Opportunities",
      "url": "https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-stock-ratings/analyst-color/26/11/63192708/gamestop-an-ai-stock-dan-ives-says-market-has-not-priced-in-opportunities",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "GameStop Stock Edges Higher as StoneX Starts Coverage With Buy Rating and $33 Target on Cohen's Turnaround",
      "url": "https://www.ibtimes.com.au/gamestop-shares-rise-stonex-buy-rating-1877774",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "GME Rises After Hours As Ryan Cohen Buys Another 844K Shares Worth Near $23M",
      "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/gme-rises-hours-ryan-cohen-211533569.html",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "A Look at GameStop Corp (GME) After 3.9% Gain -- GF Value $14.74 vs Price $25.12",
      "url": "https://gurufocus.com/news/9182508/a-look-at-gamestop-corp-gme-after-39-gain-gf-value-1474-vs-price-2512",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "November 2026 is Officially the End of an Era for GameStop",
      "url": "https://gamerant.com/gamestop-pro-membership-rewards-points-discontinued-when/",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "GameStop Announces Release Date for Third Quarter Fiscal 2025 Results",
      "url": "https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20251128382250/en/GameStop-Announces-Release-Date-for-Third-Quarter-Fiscal-2025-Results",
      "date": "2025-11-28"
    },
    {
      "title": "days.to",
      "url": "https://days.to/gamestop-earnings",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "GameStop’s Collectibles Push, Trading Card Buybacks, eBay Stake Offer Strategic Upside, Analyst Says",
      "url": "https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-stock-ratings/analyst-color/26/10/62421473/gamestops-collectibles-push-trading-card-buybacks-ebay-stake-offer-strategic-upside-analyst-says",
      "date": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Dan Ives kept an Outperform rating and a $32 target after meeting Ryan Cohen, saying GameStop is starting to apply AI to enterprise systems and that collectibles were 45% of second-quarter sales.",
      "source": "Benzinga, 2026-11-12",
      "as_of": "2026-11-12"
    },
    {
      "claim": "StoneX analyst Mike Hickey started coverage with a Buy rating and a $33 target, citing cost cuts, store closures and the focus on profit.",
      "source": "IBTimes; Benzinga, 2026-11-02",
      "as_of": "2026-11-02"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Q2 fiscal 2026 net sales $790.2M vs $972.2M a year earlier; operating income $160.2M, highest Q2 in company history; collectibles sales up 57% to $356.3M.",
      "source": "GameStop Q2 FY2026 earnings release (8-K)",
      "as_of": "2026-09-08"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Cash and marketable securities $5.1B, digital assets $0.3B, 43.4M eBay shares valued at $4.9B.",
      "source": "GameStop Q2 FY2026 10-Q",
      "as_of": "2026-08-01"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Ryan Cohen bought 844,130 GameStop shares at an average $26.98; 42,492,652 shares held directly.",
      "source": "Ryan Cohen Form 4 and Schedule 13D/A Amendment No. 21 (SEC EDGAR)",
      "as_of": "2026-10-13"
    },
    {
      "claim": "PFO Daniel Moore sold 15,480 shares at $27.00 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan.",
      "source": "Daniel Moore Form 4 filed 2026-10-13 (SEC EDGAR)",
      "as_of": "2026-10-12"
    },
    {
      "claim": "eBay Q3 2026 revenue $3.2B (+14%), gross merchandise volume $23.2B (+15%), non-GAAP EPS $1.51; Q4 revenue guided to $3.19B-$3.24B.",
      "source": "eBay Q3 2026 earnings release, Exhibit 99.1 to 8-K (SEC EDGAR)",
      "as_of": "2026-10-28"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Zacks consensus: Q3 EPS $0.20 (−16.67%) on revenue $722.5M (−12%); full-year EPS $1.09 on revenue $3.36B.",
      "source": "Zacks via Yahoo Finance, 2026-10-26",
      "as_of": "2026-10-26"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [],
  "frame": null,
  "filed_numbers": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-13",
    "sector": "Consumer Cyclical",
    "financials": {
      "status": "ok",
      "reason": null,
      "close_date": "2026-11-13",
      "latest_quarter": "2026-08-01",
      "figures": {
        "revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-08-01",
              "filed": "2026-09-09",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 790.2,
              "yoy_pct": -18.7
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-05-02",
              "filed": "2026-06-11",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 835.3,
              "yoy_pct": 14
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-01-31",
              "filed": "2026-03-24",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 1104.3,
              "yoy_pct": -13.9
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-11-01",
              "filed": "2025-12-09",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 821,
              "yoy_pct": -4.6
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-08-02",
              "filed": "2025-09-09",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 972.2,
              "yoy_pct": 21.8
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-05-03",
              "filed": "2025-06-10",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 732.4,
              "yoy_pct": -16.9
            }
          ]
        },
        "gross_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-08-01",
              "filed": "2026-09-09",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 43.7
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-05-02",
              "filed": "2026-06-11",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 40.7
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-01-31",
              "filed": "2026-03-24",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 35
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-11-01",
              "filed": "2025-12-09",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 33.3
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-08-02",
              "filed": "2025-09-09",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 29.1
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-05-03",
              "filed": "2025-06-10",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 34.5
            }
          ]
        },
        "operating_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-08-01",
              "filed": "2026-09-09",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 20.3
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-05-02",
              "filed": "2026-06-11",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 17.2
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-01-31",
              "filed": "2026-03-24",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 12.2
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-11-01",
              "filed": "2025-12-09",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 5
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-08-02",
              "filed": "2025-09-09",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 6.8
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-05-03",
              "filed": "2025-06-10",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -1.5
            }
          ]
        },
        "pretax_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-01",
          "filed": "2026-09-09",
          "value_musd": 420.2
        },
        "net_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-01",
          "filed": "2026-09-09",
          "four_quarters_end": "2026-08-01",
          "value_musd": 298.7,
          "four_quarters_musd": 893.3
        },
        "operating_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-01",
          "filed": "2026-09-09",
          "first_end": "2025-11-01",
          "value_musd": 704.7
        },
        "capital_spending": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-01",
          "filed": "2026-09-09",
          "first_end": "2025-11-01",
          "value_musd": 16.7
        },
        "free_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-01",
          "filed": "2026-09-09",
          "first_end": "2025-11-01",
          "value_musd": 688
        },
        "diluted_share_change": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-01",
          "filed": "2026-09-09",
          "base_end": "2025-08-02",
          "pct": 8.4
        },
        "cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-01",
          "filed": "2026-09-09",
          "value_musd": 5060.3
        },
        "debt": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-01",
          "filed": "2026-09-09",
          "value_musd": 4167.8,
          "composition": "notes"
        },
        "net_cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-01",
          "filed": "2026-09-09",
          "value_musd": 892.5
        },
        "deferred_revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-01",
          "filed": "2026-09-09",
          "value_musd": 244.9,
          "yoy_pct": 20.5
        },
        "backlog": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "receivables": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-01",
          "filed": "2026-09-09",
          "value_musd": 95.4
        },
        "inventory": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-01",
          "filed": "2026-09-09",
          "value_musd": 439
        },
        "equity": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-08-01",
          "filed": "2026-09-09",
          "value_musd": 6141.4
        },
        "market_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-09-03",
          "basis_filed": "2026-09-09",
          "value_musd": 13041.4
        },
        "enterprise_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-09-03",
          "basis_filed": "2026-09-09",
          "value_musd": 12148.9
        },
        "ev_sales": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-09-03",
          "basis_filed": "2026-09-09",
          "multiple": 3.4
        },
        "ev_ebit": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-09-03",
          "basis_filed": "2026-09-09",
          "multiple": 25.3
        },
        "pe": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-09-03",
          "basis_filed": "2026-09-09",
          "multiple": 14.6
        },
        "pb": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-09-03",
          "basis_filed": "2026-09-09",
          "multiple": 2.1
        },
        "fcf_yield": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-09-03",
          "basis_filed": "2026-09-09",
          "pct": 5.3
        }
      }
    },
    "short_interest": {
      "status": "ok",
      "settlement": "2026-10-15",
      "published": "2026-10-26",
      "short_pct_of_outstanding": 9.52,
      "days_to_cover": 4,
      "change_pct": 12.6
    },
    "insiders": {
      "status": "ok",
      "as_of": "2026-11-15",
      "windows": [
        {
          "days": 90,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2026-08-18",
          "bought_usd": 99188082.76,
          "sold_usd": 870658.86,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        },
        {
          "days": 365,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2025-11-16",
          "bought_usd": 121172792.76,
          "sold_usd": 2178796.06,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\nGameStop's shares have modestly better-than-even odds of beating the S&P 500 over the next three months. The case rests on chief executive Ryan Cohen's open-market buying, $5.1 billion of cash and marketable securities, and a 43.4 million-share eBay stake. The third-quarter report, which earnings calendars project for about 2026-12-08, settles whether collectibles growth still offsets falling video-game sales.\n\nThe shares closed at $25.55 on 2026-11-11, per adjusted daily closes. That is 37.6% above the level of three months earlier and 9.7% below the 52-week intraday high of $28.30 set on 2026-10-15. The close sits above the 50-day moving average of $23.98 and the 200-day moving average of $22.79.\n\nThe newest analyst comment came on 2026-11-12. Dan Ives kept an Outperform rating and a $32 target after a lunch with Cohen, and argued that GameStop is starting to use artificial intelligence (AI) to streamline enterprise systems such as email campaigns, per Benzinga. Ives tied that case to collectibles, which he said made up 45% of second-quarter sales. The comment adds a new argument but no new company figure; the quarterly report remains the test.\n\n## Bull Case\n- **The CEO kept buying as the price rose.** Form 4 filings show Cohen bought 1,000,000 shares at a weighted $20.38 on 2026-09-10, 1,150,680 at $22.94 on 2026-09-21, 450,000 at an average $23.48 on 2026-09-29 and 700,000 at $24.41 on 2026-10-02. His 2026-10-13 Form 4 reports 844,130 more at an average $26.98.\n- **His direct stake is 42.5 million shares.** Cohen's Schedule 13D/A dated 2026-10-13 reports 42,492,652 shares held directly.\n- **Two directors also bought.** Director Alain Attal bought 17,500 shares at $22.97 on 2026-09-21 and director Nat Turner bought 10,462 at $24.33 on 2026-10-01, per SEC Form 4 filings.\n- **Two analysts see room above the price.** StoneX's Mike Hickey started coverage on 2026-11-02 with a Buy rating and a $33 target, citing cost cuts, store closures and the focus on profit, per IBTimes. Dan Ives reiterated Outperform and a $32 target on 2026-11-12, per Benzinga.\n- **Collectibles now carry the stores.** GameStop's 2026-09-08 release showed second-quarter collectibles sales up 57% to $356.3 million. Operating income of $160.2 million was the highest of any second quarter in company history.\n- **eBay results support the largest investment.** eBay reported third-quarter revenue of $3.2 billion, up 14%, and gross merchandise volume of $23.2 billion, up 15%, on 2026-10-28. GameStop's 10-Q (quarterly report) valued its 43.4 million eBay shares at $4.9 billion on 2026-08-01.\n- **The balance sheet is large and liquid.** The second-quarter 10-Q showed $5.1 billion of cash and marketable securities and $0.3 billion of digital assets at 2026-08-01.\n- **The warrants have expired.** The warrants lapsed on 2026-10-30 at a $32.00 cash exercise price, per the company's 2026-10-19 reminder, with the shares well under that price.\n\n## Bear Case\n- **The core retail business keeps shrinking.** Second-quarter net sales fell to $790.2 million from $972.2 million a year earlier, per the 2026-09-08 release. Zacks consensus on 2026-10-26 expected third-quarter revenue of $722.5 million, down 12%, and earnings per share of $0.20, down 16.67%.\n- **Two officers sold into the rally.** Principal financial officer Daniel Moore sold 15,480 shares at $27.00 on 2026-10-12 and general counsel Mark Robinson sold 11,178 at an average $24.66 between 2026-10-01 and 2026-10-05, both under Rule 10b5-1 trading plans, per SEC Form 4 filings.\n- **Loyalty perks are being cut back.** GameStop stopped regular Pro members from earning points from 2026-11-01, per Game Rant. The change saves cost but gives fewer reasons to visit a shrinking store network.\n- **Reported earnings swing with investment marks.** Net income includes mark-to-market gains and losses on the eBay stake and digital assets, so the third-quarter headline can move far from operating results.\n- **Valuation models sit well below the price.** GuruFocus put its GF Value estimate at $14.74 against a $25.12 share price on 2026-11-06.\n- **The diluted share count is far above the basic count.** Convertible notes put diluted shares at 592.6 million against 448.8 million basic in the fiscal second quarter of 2026, per the 10-Q.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\nThe shares have held between $24.17 and $25.59 at the close over the six sessions from 2026-11-04 to 2026-11-11, per adjusted daily closes. The 2026-11-11 close of $25.55 is above both the 50-day average of $23.98 and the 200-day average of $22.79.\n\nAbove the price, Cohen's 2026-10-13 purchases at $26.75 to $27.00 come first, then the 52-week intraday high of $28.30 from 2026-10-15. The analyst targets of $32 (Ives) and $33 (StoneX) sit above that.\n\nBelow the price, the 2026-11-05 close of $24.17 is the nearest recent low. Cohen's purchase prices of $22.94 (2026-09-21) and a weighted $20.38 (2026-09-10) mark where his buying began. The 52-week closing low is $17.87, set on 2026-08-28.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **~2026-11-27 (est.):** GameStop announces the date of its third-quarter report; last year's notice came on 2025-11-28. Fixes the date of the report that decides the case, which earnings calendars only project so far.\n- **~2026-12-08 (est.):** GameStop third-quarter fiscal 2026 report (date projected by earnings calendars, not confirmed by the company). Shows whether collectibles growth still offsets falling video-game sales against a $722.5M revenue consensus, and how the eBay stake and bitcoin were marked for the quarter.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close below $20.00, under Cohen's 2026-09-10 weighted purchase price of $20.38 where the insider-led run began; a Cohen share sale or a revived stock-funded GameStop offer for eBay would also break the case.\n\nThe risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:\n\n- A revived eBay offer paid partly in stock dilutes existing holders. Confirmed by: A new GameStop proposal to eBay, or a filing registering shares for an acquisition.\n- A fall in eBay shares cuts the value of GameStop's largest investment and hits reported earnings. Confirmed by: eBay shares giving back their post-2026-10-28 gain and trading toward the $101.30 average price GameStop paid on 2026-07-15.\n- Collectibles growth fades while store-based sales keep shrinking. Confirmed by: Q3 collectibles growth well below the 57% reported for Q2, with total net sales below the $722.5M consensus.\n- Insider buying ends or reverses, removing the main support for the rally since September. Confirmed by: A Form 4 showing a sale by Ryan Cohen, or no further insider purchases while the shares close below $22.94, his 2026-09-21 purchase price.\n- Retail and leveraged-fund buying keeps unwinding after the 2026-10-15 high. Confirmed by: Daily closes below the 2026-11-05 close of $24.17 and below the 50-day moving average.\n\n## Correlation Notes\nGME moves with eBay shares through the 43.4 million-share stake and, to a smaller degree, with bitcoin through $0.3 billion of digital assets. It also trades with retail-favoured names: Benzinga listed it with Tesla, Micron, CoreWeave and Rocket Lab as the most-discussed stocks on X and Reddit's r/WallStreetBets for 2026-10-05 to 2026-10-09. The GMEU leveraged exchange-traded fund jumped 8% on 2026-10-15 as GME rallied, per Benzinga, which amplifies daily moves in both directions. Company-specific drivers, chiefly Cohen's filings and the quarterly report, outweigh its link to the S&P 500.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-10",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-12T16:46:31+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-12",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-12",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}