{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "GOGO",
  "name": "Gogo Inc.",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GOGO/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GOGO.json",
  "status": "DORMANT",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a4",
    "n": 4
  },
  "current_thesis": "Gogo's Galileo satellite service is growing fast and its loan now runs to 2030, but business aviation revenue fell 10% in the third quarter, so the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500; the fourth-quarter report, expected around March 2027, settles it.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close above $4.78, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong. A raised 2026 outlook, with revenue guidance above the $895 million top of the current range, would point the same way.",
  "catalyst_date": "2026-12-31",
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "caveats": [],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "Gogo Announces Third Quarter Results",
      "url": "https://www.manilatimes.net/2026/11/06/tmt-newswire/globenewswire/gogo-announces-third-quarter-results/2464103",
      "date": "2026-11-06"
    },
    {
      "title": "Finviz",
      "url": "https://finviz.com/news/418372/gogo-completes-amendment-and-extension-of-600-million-term-loan-b-deleveraging-transaction",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Gogo Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript",
      "url": "https://www.benzinga.com/news/26/11/62978106/gogo-q3-2026-earnings-call-transcript",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Stock Titan",
      "url": "https://www.stocktitan.net/news/GOGO/gogo-announces-third-quarter-91ivwxr47ase.html",
      "date": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Third-quarter revenue was $213.2 million, down 4.6% from a year earlier; adjusted EBITDA was $41.0 million, down 27% from a year earlier and 24% from the second quarter.",
      "source": "Gogo third-quarter 2026 earnings release",
      "as_of": "2026-11-06"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Gogo shipped a record 172 Galileo units in the third quarter (372 so far in 2026); Galileo aircraft online reached 297, up 61% from the second quarter.",
      "source": "Gogo third-quarter 2026 earnings release",
      "as_of": "2026-11-06"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Business aviation service revenue was $145.6 million, down 10% from a year earlier; military and government service revenue was $37.2 million, up 36%.",
      "source": "Gogo third-quarter 2026 earnings release",
      "as_of": "2026-11-06"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Air-to-ground units sold fell 68% from a year earlier to 142; air-to-ground aircraft online fell 17% to 5,399.",
      "source": "Gogo third-quarter 2026 earnings release",
      "as_of": "2026-11-06"
    },
    {
      "claim": "The roughly $600 million Term Loan B was extended to October 2030, with $75 million of required repayments through 2027: $25 million paid at closing, $30 million due by 2026-12-31 and $20 million due by 2027-12-31.",
      "source": "Gogo third-quarter 2026 earnings release and Term Loan B press release",
      "as_of": "2026-11-06"
    },
    {
      "claim": "2026 guidance was reaffirmed: revenue $870–895 million, adjusted EBITDA $175–185 million, free cash flow $65–85 million. Third-quarter free cash flow was $28.1 million and cash was $90.7 million.",
      "source": "Gogo third-quarter 2026 earnings release",
      "as_of": "2026-11-06"
    },
    {
      "claim": "The FCC renewed Gogo's commercial aviation air-to-ground licences through 2036-10-31.",
      "source": "Gogo press release",
      "as_of": "2026-11-06"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Director and 10% owner Oakleigh Thorne exercised options on 125,000 shares at $2.14 on 2026-11-05.",
      "source": "SEC Form 4 filed 2026-11-09",
      "as_of": "2026-11-09"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [],
  "frame": null,
  "filed_numbers": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-13",
    "sector": "Communication Services",
    "financials": {
      "status": "ok",
      "reason": null,
      "close_date": "2026-11-13",
      "latest_quarter": "2026-09-30",
      "figures": {
        "revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
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              "filed": "2026-11-06",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 213.2,
              "yoy_pct": -4.6
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-06",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 222.8,
              "yoy_pct": -1.4
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            {
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              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 226.3,
              "yoy_pct": -1.7
            },
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              "filed": "2026-02-27",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 230.6,
              "yoy_pct": 67.3
            },
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              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 223.6,
              "yoy_pct": 122.4
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              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 226,
              "yoy_pct": 121.5
            }
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        },
        "gross_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
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              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-08-07",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 87.8
            }
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        },
        "operating_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-06",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 8
            },
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              "restated": null,
              "pct": 13.3
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              "filed": "2026-05-07",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 14
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              "restated": null,
              "pct": 6.2
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              "restated": null,
              "pct": 12.9
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              "restated": null,
              "pct": 15.9
            }
          ]
        },
        "pretax_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-06",
          "value_musd": -6.6
        },
        "net_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-06",
          "four_quarters_end": "2026-09-30",
          "value_musd": -3.2,
          "four_quarters_musd": -2.1
        },
        "operating_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-06",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 59.9
        },
        "capital_spending": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-06",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 72.8
        },
        "free_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-06",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": -12.9
        },
        "diluted_share_change": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-06",
          "base_end": "2025-09-30",
          "pct": 1.5
        },
        "cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-06",
          "value_musd": 90.7
        },
        "debt": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-06",
          "value_musd": 817.1,
          "composition": "non-current long-term debt plus current maturities"
        },
        "net_cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-06",
          "value_musd": -726.4
        },
        "deferred_revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-06",
          "value_musd": 30,
          "yoy_pct": -6.5
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        "backlog": {
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          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-06",
          "value_musd": 442,
          "yoy_pct": -19.3
        },
        "receivables": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-06",
          "value_musd": 111.6
        },
        "inventory": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-06",
          "value_musd": 119.9
        },
        "equity": {
          "status": "ok",
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          "filed": "2026-11-06",
          "value_musd": 122.5
        },
        "market_value": {
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          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-06",
          "value_musd": 443.5
        },
        "enterprise_value": {
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          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-06",
          "value_musd": 1170
        },
        "ev_sales": {
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          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-06",
          "multiple": 1.3
        },
        "ev_ebit": {
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          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-06",
          "multiple": 12.6
        },
        "pe": {
          "status": "not meaningful"
        },
        "pb": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-06",
          "multiple": 3.6
        },
        "fcf_yield": {
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          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-30",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-06",
          "pct": -2.9
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    },
    "short_interest": {
      "status": "ok",
      "settlement": "2026-10-15",
      "published": "2026-10-26",
      "short_pct_of_outstanding": 10.34,
      "days_to_cover": 7.1,
      "change_pct": 2.8
    },
    "insiders": {
      "status": "ok",
      "as_of": "2026-11-15",
      "windows": [
        {
          "days": 90,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2026-08-18",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 0,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        },
        {
          "days": 365,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2025-11-16",
          "bought_usd": 3231037.95,
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  },
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\nGogo's Galileo satellite service is growing fast and its main loan now runs to 2030, but business aviation service revenue fell 10% in the third quarter, so the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. The fourth-quarter and full-year report, expected around March 2027, settles it: it shows whether Galileo growth and debt repayment outrun the shrinking legacy network.\n\nGogo reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of $213.2 million on 2026-11-06, down 4.6% from a year earlier and below the $216.5 million analyst estimate Benzinga compiled. Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, excluding certain items) fell 27% from a year earlier to $41.0 million. The company reaffirmed 2026 guidance of $870–895 million in revenue, $175–185 million in adjusted EBITDA and $65–85 million in free cash flow. Benzinga listed the revenue estimate for the year at $886.6 million.\n\nThe shares closed at $2.27 on 2026-11-05 and $3.88 on 2026-11-06, the session of the results, a loan extension and a ten-year licence renewal. They closed at $3.43 on 2026-11-12, below that level and below the 200-day moving average of $3.59. The market has priced in the refinancing relief and the reaffirmed guidance; at $3.43 the shares remain 55.8% below the 52-week high of $7.76 reached intraday on 2025-11-19.\n\n## Bull Case\n- **Galileo installs are ramping fast.** Gogo shipped a record 172 Galileo units in the third quarter, up 59% from the second quarter, for 372 so far in 2026. Galileo aircraft online reached 297, up 61% from the second quarter, according to the 2026-11-06 release.\n- **Refinancing risk pushed to 2030.** On 2026-11-06 Gogo extended its roughly $600 million Term Loan B to October 2030. Required repayments total $75 million through the end of 2027, with $25 million paid at closing, $30 million due by 2026-12-31 and $20 million due by 2027-12-31.\n- **Military and government revenue is growing.** Military and government service revenue rose 36% from a year earlier to $37.2 million in the third quarter, according to the 2026-11-06 release.\n- **Spectrum licence renewed for ten years.** The Federal Communications Commission renewed Gogo's air-to-ground licences through 2036-10-31, the company said on 2026-11-06.\n- **New fleet wins keep coming.** TransMedics chose Galileo for its 22 Embraer Phenom 300E aircraft on 2026-10-27, and Jet Excellence said on 2026-10-29 that it will equip its Citation X fleet with Galileo HDX.\n\n## Bear Case\n- **The legacy network is shrinking faster.** Air-to-ground (ATG) units sold fell 68% from a year earlier to 142 in the third quarter. ATG aircraft online fell 17% to 5,399, according to the 2026-11-06 release.\n- **Profit is falling.** Adjusted EBITDA of $41.0 million was down 27% from a year earlier and 24% from the second quarter, according to the 2026-11-06 release. The 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance includes $18 million of litigation expense.\n- **Cash generation must accelerate.** Third-quarter free cash flow was $28.1 million, against a full-year guide of $65–85 million. Gogo also lowered its expected 2026 FCC reimbursement to $35 million from $45 million.\n- **Results missed estimates.** Third-quarter earnings of $(0.02) per share missed the $(0.01) consensus Benzinga compiled on 2026-11-06, and revenue missed by about $3 million.\n- **Insiders have not been sellers.** The only recent director filing is a Form 4 dated 2026-11-09 showing Oakleigh Thorne, a director and 10% owner, exercised options on 125,000 shares at $2.14 on 2026-11-05. It reports an exercise, not a sale.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\nThe shares closed at $3.43 on 2026-11-12, according to adjusted daily closes. They are up 21.2% over three months from the $2.83 close of 2026-08-14. The 50-day moving average is $2.48 and the 200-day moving average is $3.59, so the shares sit between the two.\n\nThe 52-week closing low is $2.01, set on 2026-10-19. The closes since the results run $3.88 on 2026-11-06, $3.62, $3.60, $3.69 and $3.43. That is five sessions, too few to say whether the jump holds.\n\nThe case turns on whether the shares can hold the gain from the results week without a new business catalyst. The next scheduled company report is months away.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **2026-12-31:** $30 million required Term Loan B repayment due. Paying it on time confirms the debt-reduction plan the November 2026 loan extension rests on.\n- **~2027-03-01 (est.):** Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 report. Shows whether free cash flow reached the $65–85 million guide and whether Galileo growth outpaces shrinking air-to-ground revenue.\n- **2027-05-08:** FCC Rip & Replace deadline for the air-to-ground network. Customers must be moved to new equipment by then; delays could affect service and the timing of FCC reimbursement.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close above $4.78, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong. A raised 2026 outlook, with revenue guidance above the $895 million top of the current range, would point the same way.\n\n## Correlation Notes\nGogo's shares follow business-jet flying activity, satellite connectivity demand and the company's own debt more than any sector group. Military and government customers supplied $37.2 million of third-quarter service revenue, so defense budgets touch only a minority of the business. A move in the broad market affects the shares less than the fourth-quarter numbers on Galileo growth and free cash flow.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-10",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-13T06:11:43+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-13",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-13",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}