{ "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json", "ticker": "GS", "name": "The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.", "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GS/", "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/GS.json", "status": "WATCHLIST", "current_conviction": "LOW", "archetype": { "code": "a1", "n": 1 }, "current_thesis": "Goldman Sachs' shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months: the Anthropic IPO it co-leads is largely priced in, while Fed rate-increase risk and a smaller fee backlog weigh on 2027 fees. The fourth-quarter report, expected around 14 January 2027, shows whether the backlog grows again.", "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close above $1,000, the top of the range where recent broker target cuts landed, which would show the shares leading again. Fourth-quarter investment banking fees above $3.22 billion with a rising fee backlog would also prove the call wrong.", "catalyst_date": "2026-11-17", "portfolio": null, "pick": null, "themes": [ "banks-insurers-capital-markets" ], "tags": [], "sources": [], "caveats": [], "source_links": [ { "title": "Anthropic sets IPO price range of $70 to $78, looks to start trading Nov. 19, sources say", "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/10/anthropic-sets-price-range-of-70-to-78-in-upcoming-ipo.html", "date": "2026-11-10" }, { "title": "Anthropic sets a $1.4 trillion IPO target, but bankers may already be aiming higher", "url": "https://fortune.com/2026/11/11/anthropic-sets-a-1-4-trillion-ipo-target-but-bankers-may-already-be-aiming-higher-cfo/", "date": "2026-11-11" }, { "title": "Anthropic sets IPO price range of $70 to $78 per share to reach an implied valuation of $1.404 trillion", "url": "https://techcrunch.com/2026/11/10/anthropic-sets-ipo-price-range-of-70-to-78-per-share-to-reach-an-implied-valuation-of-1-404-trillion/", "date": "2026-11-10" }, { "title": "Goldman Sachs Group Inc Stock (GS) Moved Up by 4.60% on Nov 9: Drivers Behind the Movement", "url": "https://www.tradingkey.com/news/market-movers/262296877-market-movers-gs-20261109", "date": "2026-11-09" }, { "title": "Goldman Sachs Group Inc Stock (GS) Moved Down by 6.07% on Nov 5: What Investors Need To Know", "url": "https://www.tradingkey.com/news/market-movers/262283369-market-movers-gs-20261105", "date": "2026-11-05" }, { "title": "October jobs report: US economy added 165,000 jobs last month", "url": "https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/us-jobs-report-october-2026", "date": null }, { "title": "Anthropic IPO Roadshow Looms With No Price Range In Sight", "url": "https://financefeeds.com/anthropic-ipo-roadshow-looms-with-no-price-range/", "date": "2026-11-05" }, { "title": "Goldman Sachs Group (GS) Stock Price Target 2026 & Analyst Forecast", "url": "https://www.benzinga.com/quote/GS/analyst-ratings", "date": null } ], "evidence": [ { "claim": "Anthropic set an IPO range of $70 to $78 for 825 million shares, up to $64.35 billion; pricing expected 2026-11-18 and Nasdaq trading 2026-11-19 under ANT; book reported covered at the range.", "source": "CNBC, 2026-11-10", "as_of": "2026-11-10" }, { "claim": "Anthropic's bankers are weighing a price above the $70-to-$78 range, which would value the company at $1.5 trillion or more.", "source": "Fortune, citing the Financial Times, 2026-11-11", "as_of": "2026-11-11" }, { "claim": "3Q26 net revenues $18.68B, up 23% year on year; diluted EPS $17.01; investment banking fees $3.22B, up 21%; fee backlog lower than end of 2Q26.", "source": "Goldman Sachs 3Q26 earnings release (Form 8-K, 2026-10-13)", "as_of": "2026-09-30" }, { "claim": "3Q26 buybacks $3.00B (2.9 million shares at an average $1,048.73); CET1 ratio 12.4% versus 12.9% at end of 2Q26.", "source": "Goldman Sachs 3Q26 earnings release (Form 8-K, 2026-10-13)", "as_of": "2026-09-30" }, { "claim": "Chairman and CEO David Solomon sold 12,000 shares in the open market at an average $910.72 on 2026-10-27.", "source": "SEC Form 4 filed 2026-10-27", "as_of": "2026-10-27" }, { "claim": "US payrolls rose 165,000 in October with unemployment at 4.1%; CME FedWatch odds of a December rate increase rose to 76.8% from 66.9% a week earlier.", "source": "Fox Business, October 2026 jobs report coverage", "as_of": "2026-11-06" }, { "claim": "Goldman Sachs economists added a forecast of a further US rate increase in March, citing recent inflation data.", "source": "Goldman Sachs economics research, reported in company news 2026-11-11", "as_of": "2026-11-11" }, { "claim": "UBS lowered its Goldman Sachs price target from $1,010 and kept a Neutral rating.", "source": "Benzinga analyst ratings page", "as_of": "2026-11-02" } ], "view_changes": [], "frame": null, "filed_numbers": { "as_of": "2026-11-13", "sector": "Financial Services", "financials": { "status": "ok", "reason": null, "close_date": "2026-11-13", "latest_quarter": "2026-09-30", "figures": { "revenue": { "status": "ok", "label": "revenues net of interest expense", "quarters": [ { "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-02", "restated": null, "value_musd": 18679, "yoy_pct": 23 }, { "end": "2026-06-30", "filed": "2026-08-03", "restated": null, "value_musd": 20338, "yoy_pct": 39.5 }, { "end": "2026-03-31", "filed": "2026-05-01", "restated": null, "value_musd": 17227, "yoy_pct": 14.4 }, { "end": "2025-12-31", "filed": "2026-02-25", "restated": null, "value_musd": 13454, "yoy_pct": -3 }, { "end": "2025-09-30", "filed": "2025-10-31", "restated": null, "value_musd": 15184, "yoy_pct": 19.6 }, { "end": "2025-06-30", "filed": "2025-08-01", "restated": null, "value_musd": 14583, "yoy_pct": 14.5 } ] }, "gross_margin": { "status": "not reported" }, "operating_margin": { "status": "not reported" }, "pretax_income": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-02", "value_musd": 7003 }, "net_income": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-02", "four_quarters_end": "2026-09-30", "value_musd": 5294, "four_quarters_musd": 22169 }, "operating_cash_flow": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-02", "first_end": "2025-12-31", "value_musd": -37858 }, "capital_spending": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-02", "first_end": "2025-12-31", "value_musd": 2123 }, "free_cash_flow": { "status": "not meaningful", "reason": "a bank's or insurer's operating cash flow moves with its deposits, loans and policy reserves, so it is not cash free for its owners" }, "diluted_share_change": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-02", "base_end": "2025-09-30", "pct": -4.4 }, "cash": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-02", "value_musd": 176767 }, "debt": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-02", "value_musd": 444816 }, "net_cash": { "status": "not meaningful", "reason": "a bank's or insurer's cash and investments back its deposits and policies" }, "deferred_revenue": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-02", "value_musd": 158, "yoy_pct": 27.4 }, "backlog": { "status": "not reported" }, "receivables": { "status": "not reported" }, "inventory": { "status": "not reported" }, "equity": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-02", "value_musd": 124929 }, "market_value": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-10-16", "basis_filed": "2026-11-02", "value_musd": 264367.6 }, "enterprise_value": { "status": "not meaningful", "reason": "a bank's or insurer's cash and investments back its deposits and policies" }, "ev_sales": { "status": "not meaningful", "reason": "a bank's or insurer's cash and investments back its deposits and policies" }, "ev_ebit": { "status": "not meaningful", "reason": "a bank's or insurer's cash and investments back its deposits and policies" }, "pe": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-10-16", "basis_filed": "2026-11-02", "multiple": 11.9 }, "pb": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-10-16", "basis_filed": "2026-11-02", "multiple": 2.1 }, "fcf_yield": { "status": "not meaningful", "reason": "a bank's or insurer's operating cash flow moves with its deposits, loans and policy reserves, so it is not cash free for its owners" } }, "financial_balance_sheet": { "kind": "bank" } }, "short_interest": { "status": "ok", "settlement": "2026-10-15", "published": "2026-10-26", "short_pct_of_outstanding": 2.41, "days_to_cover": 2.8, "change_pct": 4.4 }, "insiders": { "status": "ok", "as_of": "2026-11-15", "windows": [ { "days": 90, "status": "ok", "from": "2026-08-18", "bought_usd": 0, "sold_usd": 12000842.41, "bought_unpriced": 0, "sold_unpriced": 0 }, { "days": 365, "status": "ok", "from": "2025-11-16", "bought_usd": 0, "sold_usd": 160091566.23, "bought_unpriced": 0, "sold_unpriced": 0 } ] } }, "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\nGoldman Sachs' shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it over the next three months. The Anthropic listing that Goldman co-leads is largely reflected in the price already. Meanwhile, the risk of further Federal Reserve rate increases and a smaller fee backlog weigh on 2027 banking fees. The fourth-quarter report, expected around 2027-01-14, settles the case by showing whether the investment banking backlog grows again.\n\nThe market has already priced in a successful Anthropic deal. Anthropic set its range on 2026-11-10, and CNBC reported its order book already covered. Goldman closed at $910.19 that day. It rose to $926.81 on 2026-11-11, when Fortune, citing the Financial Times, reported that bankers were weighing above-range pricing. It closed at $913.60 on 2026-11-12.\n\nThe rating is Low for two reasons. Third-quarter results were strong, but the company said its fee backlog fell during the quarter. Rates are also more likely to rise than fall. On 2026-11-06, Fox Business put futures-market odds of a December increase at 76.8%. On 2026-11-11, company news reported that Goldman's own economists had added a forecast of a further increase in March.\n\n## Bull Case\n- **Anthropic's range is set and covered.** Anthropic set a range of $70 to $78 for 825 million shares on 2026-11-10, raising up to $64.35 billion (CNBC, citing sources). TechCrunch put the implied valuation at $1.404 trillion. Pricing is expected on 2026-11-18 and Nasdaq trading on 2026-11-19 under the ticker ANT. Goldman and Morgan Stanley lead the deal.\n- **Bankers are weighing above-range pricing.** Fortune, citing the Financial Times on 2026-11-11, reported that Anthropic's bankers are considering a price above $78, which would value the company at $1.5 trillion or more. A separate $26 billion purchase of Anthropic stock by seven of its chip and cloud suppliers is priced at the IPO price.\n- **Third-quarter earnings were strong.** Diluted earnings per share (EPS) were $17.01 on net revenues of $18.68 billion, up 23% year on year (Form 8-K, 2026-10-13). Investment banking fees were $3.22 billion, up 21%. Equities net revenues were $6.44 billion, up 72%.\n- **Strategists see heavy 2027 issuance.** On 2026-11-09, Goldman's strategists warned of the largest net US equity supply since the 2000 tech bubble. New share issuance pays underwriting fees to the lead banks.\n- **Average target sits above the shares.** On 2026-11-09, TradingKey put the average analyst target at $1,045.75, with a high of $1,250 and a low of $875.\n\n## Bear Case\n- **Rate increases look more likely than cuts.** The Federal Open Market Committee held rates at 3.75% to 4.00% on 2026-10-28 in a 10-2 vote, and both dissenters wanted an increase. After the 2026-11-06 jobs report showed 165,000 new payrolls and 4.1% unemployment, Fox Business put December increase odds at 76.8%. Goldman economists added a March increase to their forecast on 2026-11-11.\n- **The fee backlog is shrinking.** The 2026-10-13 earnings release said the investment banking fee backlog was lower than at the end of the second quarter, and slightly lower than at the end of 2025.\n- **One deal, many banks.** FinanceFeeds reported on 2026-11-05 that a 22-bank syndicate shares the Anthropic offering. The fees also land as a single fourth-quarter event that does not repeat in 2027.\n- **Brokers cut targets after results.** TradingKey reported on 2026-11-09 that recent target cuts by major brokerages landed at $950 and above. Benzinga lists a UBS cut from $1,010 on 2026-11-02, with the rating kept at Neutral.\n- **Executives sold near today's price.** Chairman and CEO David Solomon sold 12,000 shares in the open market at an average of $910.72 on 2026-10-27 (SEC Form 4). Chief Administrative Officer Ericka Leslie sold 250 shares at an average of $890.25 on 2026-10-22, and another 250 at an average of $917.22 on 2026-10-27 and 2026-10-28 (SEC Form 4 filings).\n- **Buyback capacity narrowed.** The common equity tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio fell to 12.4% at the end of the third quarter, from 12.9% at the end of the second (Form 8-K, 2026-10-13).\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\nThe shares closed at $913.60 on 2026-11-12. That is below the 50-day moving average of $924.31 and the 200-day moving average of $950.26, both from adjusted daily closes as of 2026-11-12. The shares are down 11.7% over three months, from a $1,039.42 close on 2026-08-14. The last close is 20.8% below the 52-week intraday high of $1,153.99, set on 2026-07-15. The 52-week closing low is $773.70, from 2025-11-20.\n\nRecent closes show how far the price swings. The shares closed at $868.95 on 2026-11-05 after a 6.07% fall that TradingKey set against a 2.91% sector decline. They closed at $865.82 on 2026-11-06, then recovered to $906.22 on 2026-11-09. The highest close since then was $926.81, on 2026-11-11.\n\nSeveral reference prices sit near or above the last close. The CEO sold at $910.72 on 2026-10-27, just below it. The 50-day and 200-day averages sit above it. Further up is $1,048.73, the average price Goldman paid for 2.9 million shares it bought back in the third quarter. Below the close, the lowest broker target is $875 (TradingKey, 2026-11-09).\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **2026-11-17:** Goldman's 16th Annual Private Innovative Company Conference begins (runs to 2026-11-19). Gives a read on private companies' listing plans that feed 2027 underwriting fees.\n- **~2026-11-18 (est.):** Anthropic expected to price its IPO, which Goldman co-leads. Pricing above $78 enlarges the fee pool; a cut or delay removes the largest fee event of the quarter.\n- **~2026-11-19 (est.):** Anthropic's expected first day of Nasdaq trading. A weak debut would cool the 2027 listing pipeline that higher underwriting fees depend on; a strong one would support it.\n- **2026-12-09:** Federal Reserve policy decision. An increase raises deal-financing costs into 2027; a hold removes a main pressure on the shares.\n- **~2027-01-14 (est.):** Fourth-quarter 2026 results. Shows whether the investment banking fee backlog grew again after falling in the third quarter.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close above $1,000, the top of the range where recent broker target cuts landed, which would show the shares leading again. Fourth-quarter investment banking fees above $3.22 billion with a rising fee backlog would also prove the call wrong.\n\n## Correlation Notes\nGoldman trades with large US banks and capital-markets firms, and it moves further than JPMorgan or Bank of America on both up and down days. TradingKey reported that on 2026-11-09, JPMorgan gained 2.45% and Bank of America 2.89%, while Goldman closed up at $906.22 from $865.82. Morgan Stanley is the closest peer and co-leads the Anthropic offering, so the two stocks carry the same deal risk. Goldman shares also react to Fed rate expectations and to how AI stocks trade, because AI listings make up a large part of the 2026 underwriting pipeline.", "first_seen": "2026-11-10", "last_analyzed": "2026-11-12T23:44:54+00:00", "last_synthesized": "2026-11-12", "date_modified": "2026-11-12", "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL." }