{
  "@context": "https://orbyd.app/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "HAE",
  "name": "Haemonetics Corporation",
  "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/HAE/",
  "json_url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/HAE.json",
  "status": "DORMANT",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "graded_conviction": null,
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a4",
    "n": 4
  },
  "current_thesis": "The July stall resolved upward: HAE broke its $77–80 July range to close $85.54 on 2026-07-31, 2% under the 52-week high, on a BofA target raise to $93 citing peer multiples rather than new data. The 2026-08-06 Q1 FY2027 print is three sessions out and is the first report under a new two-segment structure that folds standalone Plasma into Apheresis.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A weekly close below $79 forfeits the 2026-07-28/29 breakout and returns price into the $74–79 June–July congestion, with the 50-day at $74.52 beneath it; secondarily, an Aug 6 print with Apheresis organic growth under the 3–6% FY2027 guide and FY2027 ranges left unchanged.",
  "catalyst_date": "2026-08-06",
  "outcome": "OPEN",
  "outcome_date": null,
  "invalidation_fired": null,
  "themes": [
    "medtech-diagnostics"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "notes": [
    "Fiscal year ends late March; FY2027 began 2026-03-29 and contains a 53rd week worth roughly 2 points of reported revenue growth, so reported and organic figures diverge all year.",
    "From Q1 FY2027 the company reports two segments — Apheresis (Plasma + Blood Center, with a 'Plasma and Other' supplemental) and MedSurg (formerly Hospital) — so pre-2026 segment history is not directly comparable.",
    "FY2027 guidance assumes zero revenue from PerQseal Elite, which remains under FDA review; any clearance is incremental to the plan issued 2026-05-07.",
    "Vivasure Medical (closed 2026-01-09) carries up to €85M of contingent consideration tied to sales growth and milestones, on top of the €100M paid at closing.",
    "$700M of 2.5% convertible notes due 2029 remain outstanding at a ~$117.12 conversion price; FY2026 year-end debt was $1.2B at 2.73x net leverage."
  ],
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\n\nThe stall flagged in mid-July resolved upward. The two named events in that window were a board appointment (Martin Madaus, effective 2026-07-24, announced 2026-07-28) and a BofA target raise to $93 from $80 on 2026-07-29 that cited Plasma and Hospital upside and **higher peer valuations**. Neither carried new operating data. So the narrative leg on offer is no longer \"plasma re-acceleration is underappreciated\" — that finished being controversial when the sell-side flipped between May and July, and 11 covering analysts now show zero Sell ratings. What is on offer is the last stretch of a multiple-driven re-rate that has run past most published targets and arrives at a binary three trading sessions later. The 2026-08-06 Q1 FY2027 print is also the first report under a two-segment structure announced 2026-06-05, which folds standalone Plasma into a combined Apheresis line. The number that drove the move stops being separately reported at the exact moment it needs to prove itself.\n\n## Bull Case\n\n- **Plasma beat the range it was guided to (2026-05-07):** FY2026 Plasma revenue $524M, +20% organic against 17–19% guided. Q4 Plasma $130.3M, +2.8% reported and +12.7% organic ex-CSL, with US share gains in the high single digits and double-digit growth in Europe.\n- **Hospital margin inflected in the same quarter:** Q4 Hospital revenue $159.6M, +8.0% reported and +6.5% organic, operating margin +380bps to 18.5%, with Blood Management Technologies +20.5% organic on TEG 6s hemostasis strength (2026-05-07).\n- **FY2026 closed with real cash generation:** revenue $1.33B, adjusted EPS $4.96 (+9%), free cash flow $210M at 89% conversion (FY2026 10-K; 2026-05-07 release). GAAP EPS was $2.05.\n- **FY2027 guidance is a return-to-growth year (2026-05-07):** reported revenue +4–7% (roughly 2 points from a 53rd week, 0–1 point FX), organic +3–6%, adjusted operating margin +50–100bps, adjusted EPS growth broadly in line with revenue.\n- **Two pieces of upside sit outside the guide:** PerQseal Elite is under FDA review with zero revenue assumed in FY2027, and the Vivasure Medical acquisition closed 2026-01-09 for €100M (≈€52M net of prior stakes) plus up to €85M contingent, adding large-bore closure assets. FDA also expanded labelling on the VASCADE MVP XL venous closure system.\n- **The most cautious desk concedes the operations:** Citi's 2026-07-08 note allows Haemonetics \"may beat-and-raise\" on August 6. The dispute is about price, not trajectory.\n\n## Bear Case\n\n- **Interventional Technologies deteriorated further in the last reported quarter:** IVT −10.3% organic in Q4 FY2026 and −9% for the full year, with vascular closure −8% in the quarter. CEO Christopher Simon described Q4 as the possible turn and said the headwinds had been \"lapped or reduced\" (2026-05-07). That claim has had no test yet.\n- **Q1 is modelled as the soft quarter, so a beat proves little:** consensus sits at $327.89M revenue and $1.07 adjusted EPS versus year-ago actuals of $321.4M and $1.10 (Q1 FY2026, quarter ended 2025-06-28). That is roughly +2% revenue and a lower EPS than a year ago — below the FY guide. Citi's 2026-07-08 framing (PT $70→$79, Neutral, 90-day downside catalyst watch) was built on precisely this: a beat \"may not be enough given the shift in expectations.\"\n- **The segment change removes the metric the re-rating was built on.** From Q1 FY2027, Plasma and Blood Center report as one **Apheresis** segment (with a \"Plasma and Other\" supplemental) and Hospital is renamed **MedSurg**. Blood Center is guided to a mid-single-digit FY2027 decline, so blended Apheresis growth reads below what standalone Plasma printed.\n- **Leverage rose to clear the converts:** the 0.00% notes due 2026 were repaid in full at maturity on 2026-03-02 for $300M cash, funded with cash on hand and revolver borrowings. FY2026 year-end debt was $1.2B — $700M of 2.5% converts due 2029, $239M term loan A, $300M revolver — at 2.73x net leverage.\n- **Named FY2027 margin headwinds:** tariffs, ERP costs, and higher interest and tax expense, with free cash flow conversion guided down to ~80% from 89% (2026-05-07).\n- **Price sits above where most of the Street has it.** Aggregators disagree: MarketBeat shows an average target of $78.89 across 11 analysts (range $62–$90); public.com shows $81.11 across 9; stockanalysis.com shows $87.90 across 11. Two of the three sit below the July 31 close, and only BofA ($93, 2026-07-29) and Mizuho ($90, 2026-07-15) are above it among named targets.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n\n- **Life-cycle: MATURING.** The story is well known and still working, but the marginal buyer is arriving on a valuation argument rather than new information. Dating it: BofA upgraded Neutral→Buy on 2026-05-22 (PT $72→$80) with the stock closing $64.06 that day; Mizuho went to $90 on 2026-07-15; BofA went to $93 on 2026-07-29 citing peer multiples; zero Sell ratings remain across 11 analysts. Fresh price highs on no fresh fundamental datapoint is late-cycle behaviour, but participation is still broadening and no mainstream coverage wave has arrived — which is what keeps it short of SATURATED.\n- **Levels:** close $85.54 (2026-07-31, +0.85%). Market cap $3.89B on 45.45M shares. Trailing P/E 41.73 on FY2026 GAAP EPS of $2.05; forward P/E 16.40; EV/EBITDA 18.31.\n- **Extension:** +14.8% above the 50-day average at $74.52 and +26.5% above the 200-day at $67.63, both rising. That is the widest gap of the recovery leg off the $47.32 52-week low.\n- **The base beneath the move:** July 20–27 held $77.40–$79.91. Everything above that was built in two sessions on roughly double the prior week's volume. Below that shelf, the next reference is the 50-day at $74.52 — near where the stock printed $74.41 on 2026-07-14 after a 3.2% drop.\n- **Overhead:** $87.32 is the 52-week high. The stock last traded at these levels in early December 2025, when a 52-week high of $85.07 was recorded (2025-12-05).\n- **Crowding observables:** short interest 2.70M shares, 6.03% of float — several sessions of recent volume, cutting both ways into a print. Beta is 0.52, so two consecutive 3%+ sessions is a multiple of this name's normal daily range, and it occurred six sessions before the release. The 2026-07-24 Form 4s were annual director RSU grants (2,538 units each to Claire Pomeroy and Ellen Zane); no open-market insider selling surfaced in July filings.\n- **Sector backdrop:** medical devices ran a −8.3% median year-to-date return through Q2 2026 while the S&P 500 gained 14.1% in the quarter (PitchBook Q2 2026 medtech comp sheet). A rotation out of technology into healthcare was visible on 2026-07-27, which is the same window as the breakout.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar (next 30 days)\n\n- **~2026-08-11 (est.)** — Form 10-Q, carrying the first full recast segment detail and the organic bridge, including whatever Interventional Technologies disclosure survives inside MedSurg.\n- **~2026-10-06 (est.)** — 90 days from Citi's 2026-07-08 downside catalyst watch; the desk's own stated window closes.\n\n## Elapsed catalysts\n\n- **2026-08-06, 6:00am ET** — Q1 FY2027 results; conference call 8:00am ET. Consensus $327.89M revenue / $1.07 adjusted EPS. First quarter of the fiscal year that began 2026-03-29. *(passed 3d ago)*\n- **2026-08-06** — first reporting under Apheresis / MedSurg (announced 2026-06-05). The recast supplemental was explicitly \"not a reaffirmation or update\" of FY2027 guidance; management said updates, if any, come on this call. *(passed 3d ago)*\n- **Window opened 2025-09-26, earliest action summer 2026** — Section 232 investigation into imported medical devices, equipment and consumables. Unresolved and live now. *(passed 317d ago)*\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nThe entire structure worth watching is three sessions old. It was built on 2026-07-28 and 2026-07-29 on roughly doubled volume with a target raise and a board appointment behind it, and nothing beneath it from operations until August 6 supplies something. **A weekly close below $79** gives the whole move back and returns price into the $74–79 congestion that held from June through 2026-07-27, with the 50-day average at $74.52 the next reference under that.\n\nOn fundamentals, three specific outcomes break the frame:\n\n- Apheresis organic growth printing below the 3–6% FY2027 organic guide on 2026-08-06, with no offsetting MedSurg strength.\n- Interventional Technologies still contracting at a high-single-digit or worse organic rate — that would make the \"lapped or reduced\" statement from 2026-05-07 wrong on its first test.\n- The FY2027 ranges (+4–7% reported, +3–6% organic) left untouched while the stock holds above two of three published consensus averages. That is the catalyst coming and going without delivering the news the last three sessions of price already assumed.\n\nThe symmetric case: a guidance raise, Apheresis above the guide range, and Interventional Technologies flat-to-positive would convert a multiple-driven move into an estimate-driven one and put $87.32 back in play with fundamental support behind it.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n\n- Haemonetics sells the collection hardware and disposables into the fractionators. CSL Behring, Grifols, Takeda, Octapharma and Kedrion together held roughly 55% of the immunoglobulin market in 2025; their plasma-centre utilisation and collection capex commentary reads through to HAE disposables before it shows up in HAE revenue.\n- The CSL Plasma disposables contract loss is the base effect that has driven every headline number for two years: FY2026 Plasma was +20% organic while reported growth was far lower. That wedge closes across FY2027 and stops being a differentiator in the story.\n- Group beta has been a headwind rather than a tailwind — medtech's −8.3% median YTD return through Q2 2026 against a +14.1% S&P 500 quarter. The healthcare rotation visible 2026-07-27 supplied part of the late-July bid; a rotation back toward technology withdraws support the name did not earn on its own numbers.\n- Section 232 is a sector-level exposure rather than a company-specific one. An adverse determination would hit imported-device peers simultaneously and would not discriminate in favour of the plasma franchise.\n- With a 0.52 beta, index direction does little of the work here. This name moves on quarterly datapoints and on sell-side revisions, which concentrates the weight on 2026-08-06 rather than distributing it across the tape.",
  "first_seen": "2026-06-07",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-08-01T09:48:54+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-08-01",
  "last_update_source": "watchlist_research",
  "license": "Content © orbyd. Cite the canonical URL."
}