{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "HAS",
  "name": "Hasbro, Inc.",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HAS/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HAS.json",
  "status": "WATCHLIST",
  "current_conviction": "MEDIUM",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a4",
    "n": 4
  },
  "current_thesis": "Hasbro's Magic: The Gathering profits and its raised 2026 outlook make the shares modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over three months. Holiday toy sales from 27 November 2026 and the fourth-quarter report expected around 17 February 2027 settle whether the 7–9% revenue growth guide holds.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close below $100, under the 50-day moving average, which would give back most of the gain since the 2026-10-20 report. A cut to the 7–9% 2026 revenue growth range, or full-year Wizards of the Coast revenue growth below the 16–18% guided on 2026-10-20, would also prove the call wrong.",
  "catalyst_date": "2026-11-27",
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [
    "consumer-discretionary-rotation"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "caveats": [],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "Hasbro Soars 11% as Magic: The Gathering Tops $600 Million and Outlook Rises: “Our Superpower”",
      "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/hasbro-soars-11-magic-gathering-203350690.html",
      "date": "2026-10-20"
    },
    {
      "title": "Earnings call transcript: Hasbro tops Q3 2026 estimates and lifts outlook",
      "url": "https://www.investing.com/news/transcripts/earnings-call-transcript-hasbro-tops-q3-2026-estimates-and-lifts-outlook-93CH-4960320",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "HASBRO, INC. - Form 4 - FY2026",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000046080/000182805726000018/wk-form4_1793744393.xml",
      "date": "2026-11-03"
    },
    {
      "title": "Netflix Unveils First Look at Magic: The Gathering Series From Star Trek Showrunner",
      "url": "https://www.cbr.com/netflix-magic-the-gathering-series-planeswalker-first-look/",
      "date": "2026-11-13"
    },
    {
      "title": "MarketBeat",
      "url": "https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/HAS/forecast",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Magic: The Gathering® | Star Trek™ Product Delays in Select Regions",
      "url": "https://magic.wizards.com/en/news/announcements/star-trek-product-delays-in-select-regions",
      "date": "2026-10-16"
    },
    {
      "title": "draftsim.com",
      "url": "https://draftsim.com/mtg-star-trek-amazon-discount/",
      "date": "2026-10-19"
    },
    {
      "title": "MTG: Star Trek Box Sales Skyrocket. Want to Guess Why?",
      "url": "https://resellcalendar.com/news/news/magic-gathering-mtg-star-trek-collector-patrick-stewart-death/",
      "date": "2026-11-04"
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Third-quarter 2026 adjusted EPS was $2.90 against a $1.85 consensus estimate; revenue rose 15% to $1.6 billion.",
      "source": "Yahoo Finance, 2026-10-20, on the Hasbro third-quarter release",
      "as_of": "2026-10-20"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Magic: The Gathering revenue rose 34% to $616.1 million; the Wizards of the Coast and Digital Gaming segment earned $367.4 million of operating profit on $747.2 million of revenue, a 49.2% margin.",
      "source": "Hasbro third-quarter 2026 earnings release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)",
      "as_of": "2026-10-20"
    },
    {
      "claim": "2026 guidance raised: revenue growth of 7–9% in constant currency (from 5–7%), adjusted operating margin of 27–28% (from 25–26%), adjusted EBITDA of $1.575–1.625 billion (from $1.45–1.50 billion).",
      "source": "Hasbro third-quarter 2026 earnings release (8-K Exhibit 99.1)",
      "as_of": "2026-10-20"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Management guided fourth-quarter Magic revenue down low-to-mid single digits after about $40 million of sales moved into the third quarter, and full-year Wizards revenue up 16–18%.",
      "source": "Hasbro third-quarter 2026 earnings call",
      "as_of": "2026-10-20"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Fourth-quarter Consumer Products revenue is guided roughly flat; full-year Consumer Products revenue is guided up 1–3%.",
      "source": "Hasbro third-quarter 2026 earnings call",
      "as_of": "2026-10-20"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Quarterly revenue was $1.60 billion for the quarter ended 2026-09-27, against $1.39 billion a year earlier.",
      "source": "Hasbro Form 10-Q filed 2026-10-29",
      "as_of": "2026-10-29"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Chief Financial Officer Gina Goetter sold 7,262 shares at $118.99 on 2026-11-02 and 2,840 shares at an average $121.04 on 2026-11-10, both under a Rule 10b5-1 plan.",
      "source": "SEC Form 4 filings dated 2026-11-03 and 2026-11-12",
      "as_of": "2026-11-12"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Netflix released a first look at Planeswalker, an animated Magic: The Gathering series made with Hasbro Entertainment and Wizards of the Coast, due in 2027.",
      "source": "CBR, 2026-11-13",
      "as_of": "2026-11-13"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [],
  "frame": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-14",
    "business": "Hasbro sells toys and games (Nerf, Play-Doh, Monopoly) to retailers, earns licensing and entertainment fees, and through Wizards of the Coast sells Magic: The Gathering cards and Dungeons & Dragons. Revenue was $1,595 million in the quarter to 2026-09-27, up 15.0% from a year earlier, per its 10-Q.",
    "change": {
      "now": "On 2026-10-20 Hasbro raised its 2026 revenue growth outlook to 7–9% in constant currency, from 5–7%, after Magic: The Gathering revenue rose 34% to $616.1 million in the third quarter.",
      "next": "Wizards of the Coast now earns most of the profit: a 49.2% segment margin in the third quarter and about 44–45% guided for the year; free cash flow reached $1,226 million over four quarters to 2026-09-27.",
      "linked": "Retailers Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT) and Amazon (AMZN) carry the Star Trek set and holiday toys; Mattel (MAT) competes for the same holiday shelf; Netflix (NFLX) plans a 2027 Magic animated series."
    },
    "priced_in": "At the 2026-11-13 close (filed inputs to 2026-10-29) the shares trade at 17.6 times earnings, 3.5 times sales and 14.6 times EBIT, with a 7.3% free-cash-flow yield on an enterprise value of $19,520 million; that holds if Magic keeps net income near the $955 million of the four quarters to 2026-09-27 as one-time tariff refunds fall away.",
    "links": {
      "customers": [
        {
          "ticker": "WMT",
          "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/WMT/"
        },
        {
          "ticker": "TGT",
          "url": null
        },
        {
          "ticker": "AMZN",
          "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/AMZN/"
        }
      ],
      "suppliers": [],
      "competitors": [
        {
          "ticker": "MAT",
          "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/MAT/"
        }
      ]
    }
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  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\n\nHasbro's Magic: The Gathering card game now earns most of the company's profit, and the outlook Hasbro raised on 2026-10-20 makes the shares modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over three months. Holiday toy sales from Black Friday on 2026-11-27 and the fourth-quarter report expected around 2027-02-17 settle it.\n\nThe third quarter set the case. Hasbro's 10-Q, filed 2026-10-29 for the quarter ended 2026-09-27, reports revenue of $1.60 billion against $1.39 billion a year earlier. Magic revenue rose 34% to $616.1 million, according to the 2026-10-20 release. Over the four quarters to 2026-09-27, filed free cash flow was $1,226 million.\n\nThe fourth quarter will look weaker on Magic, and management said so in advance. On the 2026-10-20 call, Chief Executive Chris Cocks guided fourth-quarter Magic revenue down by a low-to-mid single-digit percentage, because about $40 million of sales moved into the third quarter. He put underlying growth at about 8–10% without that shift and said the dip \"is not a demand signal.\" The test for the case is therefore the full-year guide, not the fourth-quarter Magic comparison.\n\nThe rating is medium because the case rests on one strong quarter and one guidance raise, and the shares already trade above the average analyst target. The Star Trek Magic set reached stores on 2026-11-13; no sell-through figures are public yet.\n\n## Bull Case\n\n- **Magic is a high-margin profit engine.** The Wizards of the Coast and Digital Gaming segment earned $367.4 million of operating profit on $747.2 million of third-quarter revenue, a 49.2% margin, according to the 2026-10-20 release. Management guided full-year Wizards revenue up 16–18% at an operating margin of about 44–45% on the same day.\n- **The quarter beat by a wide margin.** Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) were $2.90 in the third quarter against a $1.85 consensus estimate, Yahoo Finance reported on 2026-10-20.\n- **Guidance rose on every measure.** On 2026-10-20 Hasbro raised its 2026 revenue growth outlook to 7–9% in constant currency, from 5–7%. It lifted adjusted operating margin to 27–28% from 25–26%, and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) to $1.575–1.625 billion from $1.45–1.50 billion.\n- **Cash generation is large against the price.** Filed free cash flow over the four quarters to 2026-09-27 was $1,226 million, a 7.3% yield on the market value at the 2026-11-13 close. Hasbro doubled its 2026 share-repurchase target on 2026-10-20.\n- **Premium Star Trek product drew buyers.** Resell Calendar reported on 2026-11-04 that the TCGplayer market price of a Star Trek Collector Booster box rose from $495.34 on 2026-10-28 to $576.02 on 2026-10-29. Cocks called early signs for the set encouraging on 2026-10-20 and cited MagicCon Atlanta badge sales up nearly 30%.\n- **The Magic franchise is widening into screen media.** Netflix released a first look at *Planeswalker*, an animated Magic series made with Hasbro Entertainment and Wizards of the Coast, on 2026-11-13, with a 2027 release, CBR reported. Maya Hawke was cast in the live-action Magic film from Legendary Entertainment on 2026-11-05.\n\n## Bear Case\n\n- **Fourth-quarter Magic is guided lower.** Management expects fourth-quarter Magic revenue down by a low-to-mid single-digit percentage, and the quarter also carries about $15 million of video-game launch marketing, according to the 2026-10-20 call.\n- **Mass-market Star Trek demand looks soft.** Draftsim reported on 2026-10-19 that Amazon cut the Play Booster box preorder price 33%, from $210 to $140, and tied it to weak hype for recent licensed Universes Beyond sets.\n- **Regional delays push some revenue later.** Wizards of the Coast's 2026-11-05 update moved Collector Boosters, Bundles and some Commander decks past the 2026-11-13 release date in several regions. These are the premium products with the strongest preorder demand.\n- **Toys add little growth.** Chief Financial Officer Gina Goetter guided fourth-quarter Consumer Products revenue roughly flat on 2026-10-20, with a lower margin than the third quarter. That quarter included about $55 million of one-time tariff refunds, Yahoo Finance reported.\n- **The price is above the consensus target.** MarketBeat's consensus target was $114.93 from 16 analysts on 2026-11-09, with a range of $95–137, below the $120.55 close of 2026-11-13.\n- **The finance chief keeps selling.** SEC Form 4 filings show Goetter sold 7,262 shares at $118.99 on 2026-11-02 and 2,840 shares at an average $121.04 on 2026-11-10, both under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan.\n- **The balance sheet carries debt.** At 2026-09-27 Hasbro reported $3,510 million of debt against $851 million of cash and short-term investments, and equity of $938 million, per its 10-Q.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n\nThe shares closed at $120.55 on 2026-11-13, the day the Star Trek set reached stores. That is 3.3% below the 52-week intraday high of $124.62, set on 2026-11-11, when the shares closed at $124.02. They closed lower on each of the two sessions after that high. The 52-week closing low was $75.86 on 2026-07-08.\n\nAdjusted daily closes show a 27.8% gain over three months. As of 2026-11-13 the 50-day moving average stood at $101.60 and the 200-day moving average at $93.23. The distance between the price and the 50-day average is the October re-rating that followed the 2026-10-20 report. A fall back to that average would mean the market had given back most of the post-report gain.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **2026-11-27:** Black Friday, the start of peak holiday toy sales. Holiday sell-through shows whether Consumer Products can deliver the roughly flat fourth quarter management guided, which the 7–9% full-year revenue growth range depends on.\n- **~2026-12-18 (est.):** Theatrical release of Avengers: Doomsday, with Hasbro's Doctor Doom and Marvel toys already on shelves. Film-linked toy demand is one of the few growth sources in a Consumer Products quarter guided roughly flat.\n- **~2027-02-17 (est.):** Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 report with the 2027 outlook. It settles whether Wizards revenue grew 16–18% for the year, whether the 27–28% adjusted operating margin was delivered, and what 2027 holds for Magic.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close below $100, under the 50-day moving average, which would give back most of the gain since the 2026-10-20 report. A cut to the 7–9% 2026 revenue growth range, or full-year Wizards of the Coast revenue growth below the 16–18% guided on 2026-10-20, would also prove the call wrong.\n\nThe risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:\n\n- Magic growth peaks after a run of record sets, hitting the highest-margin segment first. Confirmed by: A fourth-quarter Magic decline deeper than the low-to-mid single digits guided on 2026-10-20, or 2027 guidance calling for lower Wizards segment revenue.\n- The Star Trek set undersells in its mass-market boosters, extending weak results from recent licensed Universes Beyond sets. Confirmed by: Falling sealed-product prices or further retailer discounting after the 2026-11-13 release, beyond the 33% preorder cut Draftsim reported on 2026-10-19.\n- Regional delays to Collector Boosters and other premium Star Trek products shift revenue out of the fourth quarter. Confirmed by: Further Wizards of the Coast delay notices after the 2026-11-05 update, or management citing timing shifts at the fourth-quarter report.\n- Weak holiday toy demand forces a cut to the raised outlook. Confirmed by: A cut to the 7–9% 2026 revenue growth range, or fourth-quarter Consumer Products revenue falling from a year earlier against the roughly flat guide.\n- Profit gains rely partly on one-time tariff refunds that will not recur. Confirmed by: Consumer Products operating profit falling from a year earlier in quarters without refund benefits.\n- Valuation pressure with the price already above the consensus analyst target. Confirmed by: A valuation-driven downgrade from a Buy-rated firm, or the consensus target staying below the share price after the fourth-quarter report.\n- Weaker global demand for collectibles spreads to trading cards. Confirmed by: Soft early Star Trek sell-through following Pop Mart's 45–50% third-quarter revenue drop reported 2026-10-28.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n\nHasbro trades on two drivers. The toy business depends on US holiday spending at retailers such as Walmart, Target and Amazon, and on tariffs; management's guidance assumes a 12.5% China tariff rate, according to the 2026-10-20 call. Avengers: Doomsday toys, including Doctor Doom product, are on shelves ahead of the film's December release.\n\nMagic depends on demand for collectibles and trading cards. Pop Mart reported a 45–50% drop in third-quarter revenue on 2026-10-28 as demand outside China fell, and Magic's results have so far run against that weakness. If that softness spread to trading cards, it would hit Hasbro's highest-margin segment first. Across liquid US stocks, the spread of three-month returns was 27% in 2026, so a single quarter's news can move the shares well away from the index in either direction.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-10",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-14T08:29:20+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-14",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-14",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}