{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "HAYW",
  "name": "Hayward Holdings, Inc.",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HAYW/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/HAYW.json",
  "status": "WATCHLIST",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a2",
    "n": 2
  },
  "current_thesis": "Hayward Holdings' raised 2026 guidance is already priced into shares trading above most broker targets, so they are more likely to lag the S&P 500; the late-February 2027 fourth-quarter report shows whether early-buy orders become sales.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close above $18.28, over the $17.41 52-week high, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; fourth-quarter 2026 net sales above the top of the flat-to-up-3% guidance would also prove the call wrong.",
  "catalyst_date": "2026-12-09",
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [
    "cyclical-industrials"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "caveats": [],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "Hayward Holdings, Inc. (HAYW)",
      "url": "https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/hayw/ratings/",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Hayward Holdings Reports Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2026 Financial Results and Increases 2026 Guidance",
      "url": "https://finviz.com/news/409837/hayward-holdings-reports-third-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-financial-results-and-increases-2026-guidance",
      "date": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Third-quarter net sales rose 6% to $260.1 million; adjusted diluted EPS was $0.18, up 29%, and adjusted EBITDA was $64.5 million at a 24.8% margin.",
      "source": "Hayward Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K)",
      "as_of": "2026-10-28"
    },
    {
      "claim": "North America sales rose 8.7% to $226.4 million, with net price adding 7% and volume 2%; Europe sales fell 18%.",
      "source": "Hayward Q3 2026 earnings slides",
      "as_of": "2026-10-28"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance raised to $0.86–$0.88 from $0.84–$0.87; net sales growth guidance raised to about 5%–6% from about 5%.",
      "source": "Hayward Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K)",
      "as_of": "2026-10-28"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Fourth-quarter 2026 net sales guided flat to up 3%, with early-buy promotional pricing flagged as a mix headwind.",
      "source": "Hayward Q3 2026 earnings slides",
      "as_of": "2026-10-28"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Net leverage fell to 1.5x, the lowest since the 2021 IPO; year-to-date buybacks totalled $115.3 million with $331 million left under the $450 million authorization.",
      "source": "Hayward Q3 2026 earnings release and slides",
      "as_of": "2026-09-26"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Nine-month operating cash flow was $225.5 million, down from $283.0 million a year earlier.",
      "source": "Hayward Q3 2026 earnings release (8-K)",
      "as_of": "2026-09-26"
    },
    {
      "claim": "CEO Kevin Holleran exercised 50,000 options at $1.40 and sold 50,000 shares at $16.55 on 2026-11-02 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan.",
      "source": "SEC Form 4 filed 2026-11-03",
      "as_of": "2026-11-02"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Goldman Sachs (Neutral) and Baird (Hold) raised targets to $16 from $14 after the Q3 report; Stifel maintained Buy with a $20 target on 2026-11-11.",
      "source": "StockAnalysis HAYW ratings page",
      "as_of": "2026-11-11"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [],
  "frame": null,
  "filed_numbers": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-13",
    "sector": "Industrials",
    "financials": {
      "status": "ok",
      "reason": null,
      "close_date": "2026-11-13",
      "latest_quarter": "2026-09-26",
      "figures": {
        "revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-26",
              "filed": "2026-10-28",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 260.1,
              "yoy_pct": 6.5
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-27",
              "filed": "2026-07-29",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 318.4,
              "yoy_pct": 6.3
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-28",
              "filed": "2026-04-29",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 255.2,
              "yoy_pct": 11.5
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-02-25",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 349.4,
              "yoy_pct": 6.8
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-27",
              "filed": "2025-10-29",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 244.3,
              "yoy_pct": 7.4
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-28",
              "filed": "2025-07-30",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 299.6,
              "yoy_pct": 5.3
            }
          ]
        },
        "gross_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-26",
              "filed": "2026-10-28",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 47.9
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-27",
              "filed": "2026-07-29",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 48.7
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-28",
              "filed": "2026-04-29",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 46.5
            }
          ]
        },
        "operating_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-26",
              "filed": "2026-10-28",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 19.3
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-27",
              "filed": "2026-07-29",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 23.9
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-28",
              "filed": "2026-04-29",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 16.6
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-02-25",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 25
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-27",
              "filed": "2025-10-29",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 16.8
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-28",
              "filed": "2025-07-30",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 23.8
            }
          ]
        },
        "pretax_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-26",
          "filed": "2026-10-28",
          "value_musd": 41.1
        },
        "net_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-26",
          "filed": "2026-10-28",
          "four_quarters_end": "2026-09-26",
          "value_musd": 32.4,
          "four_quarters_musd": 169.8
        },
        "operating_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-26",
          "filed": "2026-10-28",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 198.5
        },
        "capital_spending": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-26",
          "filed": "2026-10-28",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 37.2
        },
        "free_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-26",
          "filed": "2026-10-28",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 161.3
        },
        "diluted_share_change": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-26",
          "filed": "2026-10-28",
          "base_end": "2025-09-27",
          "pct": -2.6
        },
        "cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-26",
          "filed": "2026-10-28",
          "value_musd": 475.4
        },
        "debt": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-26",
          "filed": "2026-10-28",
          "value_musd": 956.4,
          "composition": "non-current long-term debt and finance leases plus current maturities"
        },
        "net_cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-26",
          "filed": "2026-10-28",
          "value_musd": -481
        },
        "deferred_revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-26",
          "filed": "2026-10-28",
          "value_musd": 2.6,
          "yoy_pct": 0.2
        },
        "backlog": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "receivables": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-26",
          "filed": "2026-10-28",
          "value_musd": 138.9
        },
        "inventory": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-26",
          "filed": "2026-10-28",
          "value_musd": 245.5
        },
        "equity": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-26",
          "filed": "2026-10-28",
          "value_musd": 1588.1
        },
        "market_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-26",
          "basis_filed": "2026-10-28",
          "value_musd": 3428
        },
        "enterprise_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-26",
          "basis_filed": "2026-10-28",
          "value_musd": 3909
        },
        "ev_sales": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-26",
          "basis_filed": "2026-10-28",
          "multiple": 3.3
        },
        "ev_ebit": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-26",
          "basis_filed": "2026-10-28",
          "multiple": 15.3
        },
        "pe": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-26",
          "basis_filed": "2026-10-28",
          "multiple": 20.2
        },
        "pb": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-26",
          "basis_filed": "2026-10-28",
          "multiple": 2.2
        },
        "fcf_yield": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-10-26",
          "basis_filed": "2026-10-28",
          "pct": 4.7
        }
      }
    },
    "short_interest": {
      "status": "ok",
      "settlement": "2026-10-15",
      "published": "2026-10-26",
      "short_pct_of_outstanding": 4.97,
      "days_to_cover": 3.2,
      "change_pct": 14.9
    },
    "insiders": {
      "status": "ok",
      "as_of": "2026-11-15",
      "windows": [
        {
          "days": 90,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2026-08-18",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 2338955,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        },
        {
          "days": 365,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2025-11-16",
          "bought_usd": 28607.92,
          "sold_usd": 11971066.17,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\n\nHayward Holdings' shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months because the 2026-10-28 third-quarter beat and guidance raise are already in the price. The shares closed at $16.77 on 2026-11-11, above the $16 targets Goldman Sachs and Baird set after the report. The fourth-quarter report, expected in late February 2027, settles whether early-buy orders become sales.\n\nThe rating is Low because the shares have priced in the raised outlook and the next company report falls at or just past the end of the three-month window. Stifel reaffirmed a Buy rating and a $20 target on 2026-11-11 (StockAnalysis ratings page), the only post-report target well above the price. Insiders sold into the rally. Chief Executive Kevin Holleran exercised 50,000 options at $1.40 and sold 50,000 shares at $16.55 on 2026-11-02 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan, according to his SEC Form 4 filed 2026-11-03.\n\nThe business case rests on pricing power over installed pools. The company says about 85% of its sales come from aftermarket demand: pumps, filters, heaters and controls replaced on pools already in the ground (2026-10-28 earnings slides). In the third quarter that showed up as price, with net price adding 7% to North America sales and volume only 2%.\n\n## Bull Case\n\n- **Price and volume both grew in North America.** Third-quarter North America sales rose 8.7% to $226.4 million, with net price adding 7% and volume 2% (company slides, 2026-10-28).\n- **Earnings beat estimates.** Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) was $0.18 against a $0.15 estimate, and net sales of $260.1 million beat a $252.5 million estimate (Benzinga, 2026-10-28). Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) was $64.5 million, a 24.8% margin.\n- **Guidance went up.** Full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance rose to $0.86–$0.88 from $0.84–$0.87, and sales growth guidance to about 5%–6% from about 5% (8-K, 2026-10-28).\n- **Debt is lower and buybacks are faster.** Net leverage fell to 1.5 times at 2026-09-26, the lowest since the 2021 initial public offering. The company bought back $115.3 million of stock in the first nine months, with $331 million left under its $450 million authorization (8-K and slides, 2026-10-28).\n- **Early-buy orders are running ahead.** Management said on 2026-10-28 that North American early-buy orders for the 2027 pool season were ahead of the prior year. Stifel kept a Buy rating and a $20 target on 2026-11-11 (StockAnalysis ratings page).\n\n## Bear Case\n\n- **The fourth-quarter outlook is flat to modest.** The company guided fourth-quarter net sales flat to up 3%, named volume as the main variable and flagged early-buy promotional pricing as a mix headwind (slides, 2026-10-28).\n- **The price sits above most post-report targets.** Goldman Sachs (Neutral) and Baird (Hold) raised targets to $16 from $14 after the 2026-10-28 report, and KeyBanc kept a Hold rating on 2026-10-29 (StockAnalysis ratings page). The 2026-11-11 close of $16.77 is above both $16 targets.\n- **Executives sold into the rally.** Beyond the chief executive's 50,000-share sale on 2026-11-02, Chief Legal Officer Susan Canning sold 2,500 shares at $16.72 on 2026-11-02 and 4,500 shares at an average $15.78 on 2026-10-29 and 2026-10-30, all under Rule 10b5-1 plans (SEC Form 4 filings).\n- **Europe is shrinking.** Europe sales fell 18% in the third quarter, which the company attributed to lower volume tied to conflict in the Middle East (8-K, 2026-10-28).\n- **Cash generation weakened.** Nine-month operating cash flow was $225.5 million, down from $283.0 million a year earlier, on collection and inventory timing and higher rebate payments (8-K, 2026-10-28).\n- **Rates work against pool spending.** The 10-year Treasury yield rose above 5% and oil topped $102 on 2026-10-28 (Benzinga market report). Higher yields raise financing costs for new pools and big-ticket repairs.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n\nThe shares closed at $16.77 on 2026-11-11, 3.7% below the 52-week intraday high of $17.41 set on 2026-07-01. The 3-month change is 9.7% against the $15.29 close on 2026-08-13. The last close sits above both the 50-day moving average of $13.36 and the 200-day moving average of $14.56, as of 2026-11-11.\n\nThe run since October has been steep. The 52-week closing low was $11.35 on 2026-10-09, less than five weeks before the 2026-11-11 close. Since the report, closes have held in a narrow range: $16.98 on 2026-11-04, $16.24 on 2026-11-06 and $16.89 on 2026-11-09. A move through the $17.41 July high would put the shares at new 52-week highs with no company report scheduled to justify it; a drift back toward the 200-day average would be consistent with the lag call.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **2026-12-09:** Federal Reserve rate decision. The yield path drives financing costs for new pools and big-ticket repairs, and it is the main outside driver for the shares while no company report is scheduled.\n- **~2027-02-25 (est.):** Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 report with 2027 guidance. It shows whether early-buy orders became fourth-quarter sales inside or above the flat-to-up-3% guidance, and what 2027 guidance implies for price and volume.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close above $18.28, over the $17.41 52-week high, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; fourth-quarter 2026 net sales above the top of the flat-to-up-3% guidance would also prove the call wrong.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n\nThe shares trade with residential pool and outdoor-living demand. That ties them to Pool Corporation (POOL), the largest pool-supply distributor, to Latham Group (SWIM), a pool manufacturer, and to mortgage and home-equity rates. A rise in long-term yields would weigh on the shares regardless of Hayward's own results. Europe exposure adds sensitivity to Middle East conflict and oil prices, as the 18% third-quarter Europe decline reported on 2026-10-28 showed.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-10",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-12T16:28:06+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-12",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-12",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}