{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "IBRX",
  "name": "ImmunityBio, Inc.",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/IBRX/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/IBRX.json",
  "status": "WATCHLIST",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a5",
    "n": 5
  },
  "current_thesis": "ImmunityBio's third-quarter Anktiva revenue of $48.7 million fell below the second quarter's $50.7 million, and the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 until detailed QUILT-2.005 efficacy data and a fourth-quarter revenue rebound arrive.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close above $7.97, the 200-day average of closes on 2026-11-11, would show the shares leading again. A reported fourth-quarter net product revenue above Q2 2026's $50.7 million would also point the same way.",
  "catalyst_date": null,
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [
    "oncology-immunology",
    "precision-biotech-therapeutics"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "caveats": [],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "ImmunityBio, Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001326110/000132611026000097/ibrx-2026119x8kexhibit991.htm",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "ImmunityBio, Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326110/000132611026000036/ibrx-2026498xkexhibit991.htm",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "ImmunityBio Reports Q3 2026 Revenue of $48.7 Million",
      "url": "https://www.heygotrade.com/en/news/immunitybio-q3-2026-results/",
      "date": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Q3 2026 net product revenue was $48.7M, up 53% year over year; nine-month net product revenue was $143.6M, up 92%.",
      "source": "ImmunityBio 8-K, Exhibit 99.1, 2026-11-09",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Q2 2026 net product revenue was $50.7M, up 92% year over year; Q3 2026 revenue is below it.",
      "source": "ImmunityBio 8-K, Exhibit 99.1, 2026-08-04",
      "as_of": "2026-06-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Cohort A of QUILT-2.005 (Anktiva plus BCG versus BCG alone in BCG-naive NMIBC) met its primary endpoint; no effect size was given and the sBLA is planned for Q4 2026.",
      "source": "ImmunityBio 8-K, Exhibit 99.1, 2026-11-09",
      "as_of": "2026-11-09"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities were $334.3M on 2026-09-30 ($45.1M cash, $289.2M marketable securities).",
      "source": "ImmunityBio 8-K, Exhibit 99.1, 2026-11-09",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Q3 2026 adjusted net loss was $97.9M and GAAP net loss attributable to common stockholders was $184.6M, including a $77.9M non-cash fair-value charge.",
      "source": "ImmunityBio 8-K, Exhibit 99.1, 2026-11-09",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Related-party convertible note payable at fair value was $834.9M and the revenue interest liability $426.3M; stockholders' deficit was $1.15B.",
      "source": "ImmunityBio 8-K, Exhibit 99.1, 2026-11-09",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Total revenue of $48.841M missed the $59.250M analyst estimate; adjusted EPS was $(0.09) against $(0.08) expected.",
      "source": "Benzinga, 2026-11-09",
      "as_of": "2026-11-09"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Director Cheryl Cohen sold 81,056 shares at $10.50 on 2026-10-02; director Barry J. Simon sold 25,000 shares at $10.75 on 2026-10-05, both under Rule 10b5-1 plans.",
      "source": "SEC Form 4 filings, 2026-10-06",
      "as_of": "2026-10-06"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [],
  "frame": null,
  "filed_numbers": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-13",
    "sector": "Healthcare",
    "financials": {
      "status": "ok",
      "reason": null,
      "close_date": "2026-11-13",
      "latest_quarter": "2026-09-30",
      "figures": {
        "revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
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              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 48.8,
              "yoy_pct": 52.3
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              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 51.2,
              "yoy_pct": 93.9
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              "yoy_pct": 167.6
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              "yoy_pct": 407
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              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 32.1,
              "yoy_pct": 425.1
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-08-05",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 26.4,
              "yoy_pct": 2423.9
            }
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        },
        "gross_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-09",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 97.4
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              "restated": null,
              "pct": 99.4
            },
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              "filed": "2026-05-07",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 99.5
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-02-23",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 99
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-11-05",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 99.4
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-08-05",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 99.5
            }
          ]
        },
        "operating_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-09",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -159.7
            },
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              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-04",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -120.4
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              "restated": null,
              "pct": -157.9
            },
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              "filed": "2026-02-23",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -169
            },
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              "filed": "2025-11-05",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -173.5
            },
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              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-08-05",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -269.8
            }
          ]
        },
        "pretax_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "value_musd": -184.6
        },
        "net_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "four_quarters_end": "2026-09-30",
          "value_musd": -184.6,
          "four_quarters_musd": -1109.7
        },
        "operating_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": -287.6
        },
        "capital_spending": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 9.1
        },
        "free_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": -296.7
        },
        "diluted_share_change": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "base_end": "2025-09-30",
          "pct": 12.1
        },
        "cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "value_musd": 334.3
        },
        "debt": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "value_musd": 426.3,
          "composition": "secured debt"
        },
        "net_cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "value_musd": -92
        },
        "deferred_revenue": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "backlog": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "receivables": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "value_musd": 53.6
        },
        "inventory": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "value_musd": 0
        },
        "equity": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "value_musd": -1146.3
        },
        "market_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-11-03",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-09",
          "value_musd": 6404.2
        },
        "enterprise_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-11-03",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-09",
          "value_musd": 6496.2
        },
        "ev_sales": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-11-03",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-09",
          "multiple": 35.6
        },
        "ev_ebit": {
          "status": "not meaningful"
        },
        "pe": {
          "status": "not meaningful"
        },
        "pb": {
          "status": "not meaningful"
        },
        "fcf_yield": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-11-03",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-09",
          "pct": -4.6
        }
      }
    },
    "short_interest": {
      "status": "ok",
      "settlement": "2026-10-15",
      "published": "2026-10-26",
      "short_pct_of_outstanding": 11.56,
      "days_to_cover": 7.2,
      "change_pct": -0.9
    },
    "insiders": {
      "status": "ok",
      "as_of": "2026-11-15",
      "windows": [
        {
          "days": 90,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2026-08-18",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 1119848,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        },
        {
          "days": 365,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2025-11-16",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 9505280.9,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        }
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  },
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\n\nImmunityBio shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it over the next three months. Third-quarter net product revenue of $48.7 million fell below the second quarter's $50.7 million, which ended a run of sequential growth, and the company has not yet released the QUILT-2.005 efficacy numbers. Those numbers, and fourth-quarter Anktiva revenue, settle the call.\n\nThe company said on 2026-11-09 that Cohort A of QUILT-2.005, a randomized trial of Anktiva plus Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) against BCG alone in BCG-naive non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC), met its primary endpoint. Its 8-K gave no endpoint measure, effect size or statistical detail, and a supplemental Biologics License Application (sBLA) is planned for the fourth quarter of 2026. The shares still fell: they closed at $8.63 on 2026-11-06, $7.11 on 2026-11-09 and $6.67 on 2026-11-11. The market has priced the revenue shortfall and the funding burden ahead of the trial result.\n\n## Bull Case\n- **The registrational trial met its primary endpoint.** The company announced on 2026-11-09 that Anktiva plus BCG beat BCG alone in the final analysis of QUILT-2.005 Cohort A. It reported adverse events consistent with BCG alone and plans to present detailed data at a medical congress.\n- **A filing for a much larger population is planned.** The company's 2026-11-09 8-K says the sBLA for BCG-naive NMIBC will be submitted in the fourth quarter of 2026. The FDA expanded Anktiva plus BCG to papillary-only BCG-unresponsive disease on 2026-10-14, ahead of the 2027-01-06 target date.\n- **Revenue is still far above last year.** Q3 2026 net product revenue of $48.7 million was up 53% from Q3 2025, and nine-month revenue of $143.6 million was up 92%, per the 2026-11-09 8-K.\n- **Approvals are widening.** The company reported on 2026-11-09 that Israel's Ministry of Health approved Anktiva plus BCG and that approvals now span 35 countries. It treated the first patients in Europe on 2026-11-04.\n- **Long-term data support durability.** In QUILT-3.032, published in the Journal of Urology and announced on 2026-10-16, 100 patients with carcinoma in situ had a 71% complete response rate and 84% cystectomy-free survival at 36 months among responders.\n\n## Bear Case\n- **Sequential growth stopped.** Q3 net product revenue of $48.7 million compares with $50.7 million in Q2 2026, per the company's 8-Ks of 2026-11-09 and 2026-08-04. Benzinga reported total revenue of $48.841 million against a $59.250 million analyst estimate, and an adjusted loss of $0.09 a share against an estimated $0.08.\n- **The trial result has no numbers yet.** The release says only that the primary endpoint was met. The size of the complete-response gain over BCG alone, which determines how much of the first-line market the label can reach, is unpublished.\n- **Liabilities dwarf the cash.** Cash and marketable securities were $334.3 million on 2026-09-30, against $357.4 million on 2026-06-30, per the 8-Ks. A related-party convertible note stood at $834.9 million at fair value and a revenue interest liability at $426.3 million, with a stockholders' deficit of $1.15 billion.\n- **Losses remain large.** Q3 adjusted net loss was $97.9 million against $72.4 million a year earlier. GAAP net loss attributable to common stockholders was $184.6 million, including a $77.9 million non-cash charge from fair-value changes the company tied to a higher share price in the quarter.\n- **Directors sold in October.** Director Cheryl Cohen sold 81,056 shares at $10.50 on 2026-10-02, and director Barry J. Simon sold 25,000 shares at $10.75 on 2026-10-05, both under Rule 10b5-1 plans, per SEC Form 4 filings. Simon's Form 144 covered 560,000 shares. No newer Form 4 sales appear in the company's filings.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n\nThe shares closed at $6.67 on 2026-11-11. That is below the 50-day average of closes ($8.67) and below the 200-day average, and 12.8% lower than the $7.65 close of 2026-08-13 three months earlier.\n\nThe sharpest move came on 2026-11-09, when the close fell from $8.63 on 2026-11-06 to $7.11, the session of the revenue miss and the trial announcement. Closes of $6.75 on 2026-11-10 and $6.67 on 2026-11-11 followed. The 52-week intraday high is $12.43 on 2026-02-25, and the last close is 46.3% below it. The 52-week closing low is $1.98 on 2025-12-30.\n\nA close above the 200-day average would be the first sign that buyers are treating the trial result as outweighing the revenue stall. Insiders control about 66% of the shares, per MarketBeat, so a thin public float can widen moves in either direction.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **~2026-12-31 (est.):** Planned sBLA submission for Anktiva plus BCG in BCG-naive NMIBC, which the company's 2026-11-09 8-K guides to Q4 2026. A filing on schedule keeps the first-line label expansion moving; a slip would suggest the data are weaker or more complex than the primary-endpoint headline implies.\n- **~2027-01-15 (est.):** Possible preliminary fourth-quarter net product revenue release, following the company's 2026-01-15 precedent. Shows whether revenue rebounds above Q2 2026's $50.7M after the Q3 dip to $48.7M.\n- **~2027-03-03 (est.):** Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results, following the 2026-03-03 timing of last year's report. Confirms fourth-quarter revenue, cash against $334.3M on 2026-09-30, and any financing used to fund losses.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close above $7.97, the 200-day average of closes on 2026-11-11, would show the shares leading again. A reported fourth-quarter net product revenue above Q2 2026's $50.7 million would also point the same way.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n\nIBRX trades on company-specific bladder-cancer news more than on the biotech index. Johnson & Johnson's Inlexzo competes in BCG-unresponsive NMIBC, so news on that product can affect sentiment. Executive Chairman Patrick Soon-Shiong's other biotech holdings, including PDS Biotechnology, can also produce headlines that move IBRX shares.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-10",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-12T17:14:58+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-12",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-12",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}