{
  "@context": "https://orbyd.app/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "IMAX",
  "name": "Imax Corp",
  "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/IMAX/",
  "json_url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/IMAX.json",
  "status": "DORMANT",
  "current_conviction": "MEDIUM",
  "graded_conviction": null,
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a1",
    "n": 1
  },
  "current_thesis": "Premium-large-format flywheel narrative accelerated on the 2026-07-23 Q2 beat ($102.8M revenue vs $93.7M consensus, $0.43 adj EPS vs $0.28) and July's record $257M IMAX month; the story is now mainstream-covered, six sell-side targets set 2026-07-24 ($45–$54) sit on top of the $48.49 close, and no company-reported catalyst lands until the ~October Q3 print.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A weekly close below $44 unwinds the advance built off the 2026-07-23 Q2 print and breaks the August structure; a secondary condition is the $51.26 52-week high going unrecovered into the ~2026-10-22 Q3 report as the theme rolls to SATURATED.",
  "catalyst_date": "2026-08-28",
  "outcome": "OPEN",
  "outcome_date": null,
  "invalidation_fired": null,
  "themes": [
    "travel-leisure"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "notes": [
    "IMAX revenue keys off third-party studio release timing, so quarter-over-quarter comps swing on slate dates as much as on underlying demand.",
    "Network spanned 1,809+ locations across 91 countries as of Q2 2026; results carry FX and international box-office exposure alongside North America.",
    "Two distinct revenue engines — box-office royalty on other studios' titles and system sales/installations — can move in opposite directions within the same quarter."
  ],
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\n\nIMAX is the listed toll booth on premium theatrical: it does not own the films and largely does not own the theatres, it licenses the format and takes a cut of the gross. The 2026-07-23 Q2 print put hard numbers under that model — revenue $102.8M against $93.746M consensus, adjusted EPS $0.43 against $0.28, adjusted EBITDA margin 46.6% — and the stock gapped roughly 11–12% on the day. CNBC reported on 2026-08-03 that July 2026 was the highest-grossing month in the company's 50-plus-year history at $257M, driven by Universal's *The Odyssey*, the fastest title ever to $200M in global IMAX box office. That is the narrative leg on offer: a fixed-cost network monetising somebody else's blockbuster at 46%-plus incremental margin.\n\nThe complication is timing. Price closed at $48.49 on 2026-08-07, 5.4% under the $51.26 52-week high, with RSI(14) at 74.5 after a 37.4% three-month advance. The six price targets published on 2026-07-24 run $45 to $54 — the consensus band sits on top of spot. And there is no company-reported datapoint until the Q3 release around late October.\n\n## Bull Case\n\n- **Q2 2026 (2026-07-23):** revenue $102.8M vs $93.746M consensus (+12% YoY); adjusted EPS $0.43 vs $0.28 consensus (+65% YoY); adjusted EBITDA margin 46.6%.\n- **Network build is at a decade high:** 38 systems installed in Q2 2026, the strongest Q2 in ten years, against a backlog of 421 systems (263 new, 158 upgrades) — a visible multi-year installation pipeline rather than a one-quarter surge.\n- **Scale of the footprint:** 1,809-plus locations in 91 countries as of Q2 2026, with the company claiming over half of global premium-cinema locations. Incremental box office runs through a network whose cost base is already built.\n- **July 2026 set a company record:** $257M, the highest-grossing month in IMAX history (CNBC, 2026-08-03). *The Odyssey* took $44M in its third IMAX weekend and opened at $52M globally in IMAX.\n- **Sell-side moved as a block on 2026-07-24:** Wedbush to $54 (Outperform), B. Riley to $52 (Buy), JP Morgan to $50 (Overweight), Roth to $50 (Buy), Rosenblatt to $50 (Buy), Wells Fargo to $45 (Equal-Weight).\n- **The December window is already booked:** Dune: Part Three has locked roughly 400 IMAX screens with domestic IMAX exclusivity for its first three weeks from 2026-12-18, with tickets on sale months ahead. Avengers: Doomsday opens the same day without US IMAX screens in that window.\n- **International network additions continue:** on 2026-07-21 IMAX and CGV extended their partnership to upgrade three existing Vietnam locations to IMAX with Laser starting 2027.\n\n## Bear Case\n\n- **Guidance was maintained, not raised.** On 2026-07-23 the company held FY2026 at approximately $1.4B global box office, 160–175 installations and mid-40% total adjusted EBITDA margin with a 45% floor — after the quarter that produced a record July. Either the guide is conservative or the back half is thinner than the tape implies; the Q3 print is where that resolves.\n- **The published targets are already here.** A $45–$54 band set on 2026-07-24 against a $48.49 close on 2026-08-07 leaves the highest street number roughly 11% above spot and the lowest below it.\n- **December is one title deep domestically.** The three-week exclusivity that makes Dune: Part Three a bull point also removes the fallback: Avengers: Doomsday is not in US IMAX during that window, so a soft Dune opening has no domestic substitute on those screens.\n- **Slate risk is not company risk.** Revenue timing is set by Warner Bros., Universal and Disney release calendars. A date move at a studio moves IMAX's quarter without anything changing inside IMAX.\n- **Catalyst vacuum.** Between the 2026-07-23 print and the Q3 report around 2026-10-22 there is no scheduled company disclosure — the only inputs are weekend box-office grosses.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n\nLast completed daily close $48.49 (2026-08-07). The 52-week high is $51.26, 5.4% overhead; CNBC dated the all-time high to the week of 2026-08-03, meaning the high was made and has not been reclaimed in the sessions since. Three-month return 37.4%. RSI(14) 74.5 — above the 70 line, which describes an extended tape rather than a broken one.\n\nCrowding and positioning observables, stated as observables:\n\n- Six price-target revisions landed inside a single session on 2026-07-24, all following the same print.\n- Mainstream financial coverage arrived on 2026-08-03 with a CNBC feature quoting CEO Rich Gelfond calling the momentum a \"flywheel\" — general-audience coverage of a stock at an all-time high.\n- That is routine-size RSU housekeeping and does not read as distribution; it is logged here because it is the only insider filing in the window.\n- No earnings date inside 30 days, so the near-term flow driver is weekend box office rather than a scheduled print.\n\nLife-cycle placement: **MATURING**. The acceleration phase is dated — 2026-07-23 print, 2026-07-24 target block, 2026-08-03 record-month headline. What follows is the moderating leg: the story is well known, still working on fundamentals, and the price has stalled 5.4% below its high after the mainstream write-up. The markers that would push this to SATURATED are visible but not yet confirmed: general-audience coverage has arrived, the target band brackets spot, and there is no new bid scheduled until October.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar (next 30 days)\n\n- **~2026-08-28 (est.)** — *The Dog Stars* opens with a reported two-week IMAX window. First meaningful IMAX-window title after *The Odyssey*'s run; per-screen grosses show whether the network holds up on a non-event title.\n- **Weekends of 2026-08-14/16 and 2026-08-21/23** — weekend box-office reporting. *The Odyssey* holdover economics and the Sony *Spider-Man: Brand New Day* IMAX expansion that began 2026-08-06 are the observable inputs; these are the only high-frequency data between now and October.\n- **~2026-09-17 (est.)** — *Resident Evil* theatrical release (just outside the 30-day window; listed because it is the next slate anchor).\n- **No scheduled company disclosure inside 30 days.** The next one is the Q3 2026 report, estimated ~2026-10-22 based on prior-year cadence.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nThe load-bearing beam is the December window. If Warner Bros. Moves the 2026-12-18 Dune: Part Three date, or the three-week domestic IMAX exclusivity is shortened or shared, the single largest identified Q4 event for the network loses its shape and the ~$1.4B FY global box-office guide has to be carried by a slate that has not yet been tested.\n\nThe second thing that would change the read is a Q3 report around 2026-10-22 that reiterates $1.4B rather than raising it. A record July that does not move the annual number implies the back half is being consumed by guidance rather than adding to it.\n\nOn price, the gradeable break: **a weekly close below $44** unwinds the advance built off the 2026-07-23 print and takes out the August structure. A second, slower condition is the $51.26 52-week high going unrecovered through September — that combination would date the narrative's roll from MATURING to SATURATED without needing a single fundamental to miss.\n\nConversely, a Q3 raise above $1.4B with installations tracking to the upper half of 160–175 would extend the leg rather than break it.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n\n- **Exhibitors (CNK, AMC):** IMAX shares the box-office input but not the cost structure — it collects a royalty on gross rather than operating the auditoriums, so the beta is to industry box office with the operating leverage of a licensor. The Q2 combination of +12% revenue and a 46.6% adjusted EBITDA margin is the arithmetic of that difference.\n- **Studios:** for Q4 2026 specifically, the domestic IMAX network is a Warner Bros./Legendary slate proxy, not a Disney/Marvel one, because Avengers: Doomsday has no US IMAX screens in its first three weeks from 2026-12-18. That is an unusual, dated decoupling from the normal Marvel-drives-premium-format relationship.\n- **Comcast/Universal:** *The Odyssey* is the Universal title behind the record $257M July, so IMAX's H2 2026 comparisons will be measured against a Comcast-distributed film.\n- **China and international:** with 1,809-plus locations across 91 countries, the network carries international box-office and FX exposure that does not show up in a US-only box-office print.\n- **Consumer discretionary:** out-of-home entertainment spend is the underlying demand series; IMAX's premium pricing means it is levered to the willingness to pay up for a format, which historically decouples from ticket volume.",
  "first_seen": "2026-07-31",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-08-09T08:10:09+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-08-08",
  "last_update_source": "theme_discovery",
  "license": "Content © orbyd. Cite the canonical URL."
}