{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "INSW",
  "name": "International Seaways, Inc.",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/INSW/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/INSW.json",
  "status": "DORMANT",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a1",
    "n": 1
  },
  "current_thesis": "International Seaways' record third-quarter profit has up its share price as tanker spot rates ease from their peak, so the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months; spot rates and the 23 December 2026 dividend settle it.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close above $125.04, the highest close of the last 63 sessions (2026-10-13), which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 again and prove this call wrong.",
  "catalyst_date": null,
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [
    "oil-energy-geopolitical",
    "freight-logistics"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "caveats": [],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "International Seaways Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results",
      "url": "https://www.financialcontent.com/article/bizwire-2026-11-5-international-seaways-reports-third-quarter-2026-results",
      "date": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "title": "Intl Seaways (INSW) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript",
      "url": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/11/05/intl-seaways-insw-q3-2026-earnings-call-transcript/",
      "date": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "title": "Crude Freight: Past the Peak, But the Floor Should Hold",
      "url": "https://www.breakwaveadvisors.com/insights/2026/10/30/crude-freight-past-the-peak-but-the-floor-should-hold",
      "date": "2026-10-30"
    },
    {
      "title": "Supertanker Rates Fall from Record Highs",
      "url": "https://pipexch.com/supertanker-rates-fall-from-record-highs/",
      "date": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Third-quarter 2026 net income was $344.2 million, or $6.90 per diluted share; adjusted net income was $291.4 million, or $5.84 per diluted share; adjusted EBITDA was $344.5 million.",
      "source": "International Seaways Q3 2026 earnings release",
      "as_of": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "claim": "More than half of expected fourth-quarter revenue days were fixed at blended spot earnings above $172,000 a day.",
      "source": "International Seaways Q3 2026 earnings call",
      "as_of": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "claim": "The board declared a $5.05 per share dividend, with a 2026-12-09 record date and 2026-12-23 payment date; dividends declared over twelve months total $16.80 a share.",
      "source": "International Seaways Q3 2026 earnings release",
      "as_of": "2026-11-05"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Total liquidity was about $964 million at 2026-09-30, and net loan-to-value was under 6%.",
      "source": "International Seaways Q3 2026 earnings release",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Bruton Limited completed its merger with International Seaways, effective 2026-11-02.",
      "source": "Company news via fiscal.ai",
      "as_of": "2026-11-02"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Famatown Finance Ltd (10% owner) sold 203,738 shares at an average $122.76 between 2026-10-09 and 2026-10-14.",
      "source": "SEC Form 4 filed 2026-10-28",
      "as_of": "2026-10-14"
    },
    {
      "claim": "The Gulf of Oman-to-China VLCC rate fell to about 776 on the Worldscale freight index from 841 a week earlier, per Baltic Exchange figures.",
      "source": "Pipexch, 'Supertanker Rates Fall from Record Highs'",
      "as_of": "2026-11-06"
    },
    {
      "claim": "A prospectus was filed for 1.624 million common shares offered on behalf of selling shareholders.",
      "source": "Benzinga",
      "as_of": "2026-11-05"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [],
  "frame": null,
  "filed_numbers": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-13",
    "sector": "Industrials",
    "financials": {
      "status": "ok",
      "reason": null,
      "close_date": "2026-11-13",
      "latest_quarter": "2026-09-30",
      "figures": {
        "revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-05",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 483.2,
              "yoy_pct": 146
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-10",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 467.3,
              "yoy_pct": 138.8
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-05-07",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 325.5,
              "yoy_pct": 77.5
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-02-26",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 267.9,
              "yoy_pct": 37.6
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-11-06",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 196.4,
              "yoy_pct": -12.8
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-08-06",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 195.6,
              "yoy_pct": -24
            }
          ]
        },
        "gross_margin": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "operating_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-05",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 72.7
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-10",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 64.5
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-05-07",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 88.7
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-02-26",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 51.6
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-11-06",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 40.1
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-08-06",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 35.5
            }
          ]
        },
        "pretax_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 344.7
        },
        "net_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "four_quarters_end": "2026-09-30",
          "value_musd": 344.2,
          "four_quarters_musd": 1052.8
        },
        "operating_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 797.8
        },
        "capital_spending": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 1.9
        },
        "free_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 795.9
        },
        "diluted_share_change": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "base_end": "2025-09-30",
          "pct": 0.6
        },
        "cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 453.6
        },
        "debt": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 700,
          "composition": "long-term debt"
        },
        "net_cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": -246.4
        },
        "deferred_revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 0,
          "yoy_pct": null
        },
        "backlog": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "receivables": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 381.9
        },
        "inventory": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 22
        },
        "equity": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 2365.6
        },
        "market_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-11-03",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 5383.1
        },
        "enterprise_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-11-03",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-05",
          "value_musd": 5629.4
        },
        "ev_sales": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-11-03",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-05",
          "multiple": 3.6
        },
        "ev_ebit": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-11-03",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-05",
          "multiple": 5.2
        },
        "pe": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-11-03",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-05",
          "multiple": 5.1
        },
        "pb": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-11-03",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-05",
          "multiple": 2.3
        },
        "fcf_yield": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-11-03",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-05",
          "pct": 14.8
        }
      }
    },
    "short_interest": {
      "status": "ok",
      "settlement": "2026-10-15",
      "published": "2026-10-26",
      "short_pct_of_outstanding": 6.46,
      "days_to_cover": 4.2,
      "change_pct": 12.6
    },
    "insiders": {
      "status": "ok",
      "as_of": "2026-11-15",
      "windows": [
        {
          "days": 90,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2026-08-18",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 76583910.21,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        },
        {
          "days": 365,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2025-11-16",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 176796878.92,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\n\nInternational Seaways reported record third-quarter profit and kept a $5.05 a share dividend, yet the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months because tanker spot rates are easing from their peak. The direction of spot rates, then the 2026-12-23 dividend payment and the fourth-quarter report expected around late February 2027, settle it.\n\nThe shares closed at $101.27 on 2026-11-11, up from $94.47 on 2026-11-05, the day of the report. That close is 19.8% below the 52-week high of $126.27 set intraday on 2026-10-14. The market has priced in a peak in earnings: the shares fell on the day the company beat estimates, even though more than half of fourth-quarter revenue days were fixed above $172,000 a day, per the 2026-11-05 earnings call.\n\nBenzinga reported on 2026-10-09 that nine of 13 US-listed tanker stocks had more than doubled in 2026. With the group already re-rated, the question for the next quarter is how long peak earnings last, and the third-quarter beat did not answer it.\n\n## Bull Case\n- **Fourth-quarter bookings are far above third-quarter earnings.** More than half of fourth-quarter revenue days are fixed above $172,000 a day, per the 2026-11-05 call. Blended spot earnings were about $68,000 a day in the third quarter, per the company's 2026-10-16 update.\n- **Third-quarter results beat estimates.** Adjusted earnings were $5.84 a share against a $3.60 estimate, and revenue was $483 million against a $350.1 million estimate, per Benzinga on 2026-11-05. Net income of $344.2 million included a $53 million gain on a Suezmax sale, per the company's release.\n- **Payouts continue, and the buyback grew.** The board declared $5.05 a share on 2026-11-03, payable 2026-12-23, bringing dividends declared over twelve months to $16.80, per the release. The board also raised the share repurchase program to $100 million and extended it through 2028.\n- **Debt is small against the fleet.** Total liquidity was about $964 million at 2026-09-30, and net loan-to-value was under 6%, per the release. The company signed a $500 million revolving credit facility with Nordea Bank and other lenders on 2026-10-23, per company news.\n- **The Bruton deal is closed.** Company news reported that Bruton Limited's merger with International Seaways took effect on 2026-11-02, after Bruton shareholders approved it on 2026-10-30. The deal adds four VLCC newbuilds and about 3.12 million new shares.\n- **Few sanctioned ships could return.** Breakwave Advisors wrote on 2026-10-30 that the likeliest candidates for mainstream trade are 7 very large crude carriers (VLCCs), 14 Suezmaxes and 58 Aframax or LR2 tankers. Kpler estimated on 2026-10-15 that only about 24 of some 160 sanctioned VLCCs could realistically rejoin global trade.\n\n## Bear Case\n- **Spot rates have turned down.** Baltic Exchange figures showed the Gulf of Oman-to-China VLCC rate at about 776 on the Worldscale freight index in the first week of November, down from 841 a week earlier. Breakwave Advisors titled its 2026-10-30 note \"Past the Peak\", while arguing rates are unlikely to return to pre-conflict levels.\n- **The booked average has slipped.** The company disclosed about $180,000 a day on about 37% of fourth-quarter days on 2026-10-16, and above $172,000 on more than half on 2026-11-05. The later days were therefore fixed at lower rates than the early ones.\n- **Washington is targeting tanker supply.** Reuters reported on 2026-10-14 that the US is weighing sanctions relief for some shadow-fleet tankers to lower freight rates. Benzinga reported on 2026-10-17 that DHT, Frontline and International Seaways fell on the news.\n- **A large holder keeps selling.** SEC Form 4 filings show Famatown Finance Ltd, a 10% owner, sold 1,106,190 shares at an average $97.01 from 2026-04-30 to 2026-10-08 and a further 203,738 shares at an average $122.76 from 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-14. A prospectus for 1.624 million shares offered by selling shareholders was filed on 2026-11-05, per Benzinga.\n- **Bruton ships miss the top spot rates.** The first two VLCCs carry charters at $95,000 a day through April 2027 and $107,000 a day for 12 months, per the release. Remaining newbuild installments total $279 million, with sale-leaseback financing of up to 90% of construction price.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\nThe shares closed at $98.02 on 2026-11-06, $96.45 on 2026-11-09, $98.25 on 2026-11-10 and $101.27 on 2026-11-11. The low of that run was $94.47 on 2026-11-05. The 52-week high of $126.27 was set intraday on 2026-10-14.\n\nThe 50-day average of adjusted closes is $108.2, above the last close. The 200-day average is $82.3, well below it. The 3-month change in adjusted closes is 11.8%, measured against the $95.15 close of 2026-08-13 (quoted).\n\nInsider activity is light. SVP and CFO Jeffrey Pribor exercised options on 26,713 shares at $21.58 on 2026-11-06, with 16,501 shares withheld for tax at $98.02, per SEC Form 4. CEO Lois Zabrocky sold 2,000 shares at $114.23 on 2026-10-15 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan, per Form 4.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **2026-12-23:** Payment of the $5.05 per share dividend, with a 2026-12-09 record date. Delivers the third-quarter payout and shows the 85%-of-adjusted-net-income practice holding for another quarter.\n- **~2027-02-25 (est.):** Fourth-quarter 2026 report and dividend declaration, with the date estimated from prior-year timing. Shows how much of the fourth-quarter bookings above $172,000 a day reaches shareholders and how the first quarter of 2027 is booking.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close above $125.04, the highest close of the last 63 sessions (2026-10-13), which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 again and prove this call wrong.\n\n## Correlation Notes\nThe shares trade with crude tanker peers on the same news. Benzinga reported on 2026-10-17 that DHT, Frontline and International Seaways fell together on the shadow-fleet sanctions report. VLCC spot rates, attacks on Middle East shipping and US sanctions policy drive the group more than the broad market does. A Gulf de-escalation would likely hit rates and all these names at once, and renewed attacks would likely lift them together; a sector-wide move on either headline without a matching move in these shares would show the link weakening.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-10",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-12T17:23:45+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-12",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-12",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}