{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "INTR",
  "name": "Inter & Co. Inc.",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/INTR/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/INTR.json",
  "status": "DORMANT",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a5",
    "n": 5
  },
  "current_thesis": "Inter & Co.'s shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: profit grew 26% in the 12 November 2026 report, but late overdue loans rose to 5.3% and Brazilian rates and the real set the price. The fourth-quarter report, expected around 11 February 2027, tests credit quality.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close above $4.39, over the recent trading range, which would show the shares recovering and leading the S&P 500 despite the credit-quality slippage. A fourth-quarter report with loans over 90 days overdue below 5.3% would also point the same way.",
  "catalyst_date": null,
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [
    "emerging-markets",
    "fintech-consumer-credit"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "caveats": [],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "Inter (INTR) Q3 2026 Earnings: Net Income Jumps 26% to R$425 Million",
      "url": "https://www.panabee.com/news/inter-earnings-q3-2026",
      "date": "2026-11-12"
    },
    {
      "title": "Inter&Co Delivers Record Second Quarter, With Strong Growth and US$81M Net Income, as Rule of 50 Becomes a Reality",
      "url": "https://blog-us.inter.co/interco-posts-record-q2-2026-results-with-us81m-net-income-and-rule-of-50-achievement/",
      "date": null
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Third-quarter 2026 EPS of $0.18 missed the $0.19 estimate; sales of $528.818 million missed the $537.770 million estimate.",
      "source": "News headline, 2026-11-12",
      "as_of": "2026-11-12"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Third-quarter 2026 net income of R$425 million, up 26% from a year earlier; loans over 90 days overdue 5.3% of the expanded portfolio versus 4.5% a year earlier; efficiency ratio 41.9%; all-in cost of risk 5.9%.",
      "source": "Panabee summary of the 3Q26 results (company 6-K filed 2026-11-12)",
      "as_of": "2026-11-12"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Second-quarter 2026 net income was a record R$421 million (US$81 million).",
      "source": "Inter&Co 2Q26 earnings release",
      "as_of": "2026-08-05"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Second-quarter revenue of $475.45 million missed the $513.31 million consensus; EPS beat by $0.01.",
      "source": "MarketBeat",
      "as_of": "2026-08-05"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Lula won Brazil's presidential runoff with 51.8% of the vote to Flávio Bolsonaro's 48.2%.",
      "source": "CBS News",
      "as_of": "2026-10-25"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Inter & Co fell 36% on the first US session after the runoff; StoneCo fell 29%, PagSeguro 25% and Nu Holdings 21%.",
      "source": "TIKR",
      "as_of": "2026-10-26"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [],
  "frame": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-14",
    "business": "Inter & Co. is a Brazilian digital bank and financial super app. It earns interest on loans, card and payroll credit, plus fees from payments, investments and insurance. Third-quarter 2026 net income was R$425 million, per Panabee's summary of the 6-K.",
    "change": {
      "now": "On 2026-11-12 the company reported third-quarter 2026 net income of R$425 million, up 26% from a year earlier, while EPS and sales missed estimates.",
      "next": "Loans more than 90 days overdue rose to 5.3% of the expanded portfolio from 4.5% a year earlier; the efficiency ratio improved to 41.9% and cost of risk was 5.9%.",
      "linked": "Brazilian peers StoneCo (STNE), PagSeguro (PAGS) and Nu Holdings (NU) fell 29%, 25% and 21% on 2026-10-26 with Inter, so rates and the real hit the group together."
    },
    "priced_in": "No valuation line is filed for this foreign filer, so no multiple is stated. The $4.15 close of 2026-11-13 is 59.9% below the 52-week high; holding it needs net income growth near the third quarter's 26% with loans over 90 days overdue at or below 5.3%.",
    "links": {
      "customers": [],
      "suppliers": [],
      "competitors": [
        {
          "ticker": "NU",
          "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/NU/"
        },
        {
          "ticker": "STNE",
          "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/STNE/"
        },
        {
          "ticker": "PAGS",
          "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/PAGS/"
        },
        {
          "ticker": "XP",
          "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/XP/"
        },
        {
          "ticker": "ITUB",
          "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/ITUB/"
        },
        {
          "ticker": "BBD",
          "url": null
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "filed_numbers": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-13",
    "sector": "Financial Services",
    "financials": {
      "status": "not available",
      "reason": "no quarterly report in US GAAP with the SEC (a foreign filer reports on Form 20-F or 40-F)",
      "close_date": "2026-11-13",
      "latest_quarter": null,
      "figures": {}
    },
    "short_interest": {
      "status": "ok",
      "settlement": "2026-10-15",
      "published": "2026-10-26",
      "short_pct_of_outstanding": null,
      "days_to_cover": 1.3,
      "change_pct": 89.2
    },
    "insiders": {
      "status": "ok",
      "as_of": "2026-11-15",
      "windows": [
        {
          "days": 90,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2026-08-18",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 0,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        },
        {
          "days": 365,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2025-11-16",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 0,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\n\nInter & Co.'s shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it over the next three months. The 2026-11-12 third-quarter report showed profit growth but also rising late-stage overdue loans, and Brazilian interest rates and the real set the price more than the profit streak does. The fourth-quarter report, expected around 2027-02-11, shows whether credit quality holds.\n\nA 2026-11-12 news headline put third-quarter earnings per share at $0.18 against a $0.19 estimate, and sales at $528.818 million against $537.770 million. Panabee's summary of the company's 6-K reports net income of R$425 million, up 26% from a year earlier. The shares closed at $4.15 on 2026-11-13, the first full session after the report, from $3.96 on 2026-11-12. That close is still below the 50-day and 200-day averages.\n\n## Bull Case\n\n- **Profit keeps growing.** Panabee's summary of the third-quarter results reports net income of R$425 million, up 26% from a year earlier. The company reported a record R$421 million (US$81 million) for the second quarter on 2026-08-05.\n- **Efficiency continues to improve.** Panabee reports an efficiency ratio of 41.9% in the third quarter of 2026, down 5.8 percentage points from a year earlier.\n- **Loan book still expanding.** Panabee reports the expanded loan portfolio at R$58.1 billion, up 25% from a year earlier, with private payroll loans up 147% to R$3.1 billion.\n- **Early-stage delinquency eased.** Panabee reports loans 15 to 90 days overdue at 4.2% in the third quarter, down from 4.5% in the second.\n- **The shares already carry a large discount.** The 2026-11-13 close of $4.15 is 59.9% below the 52-week high of $10.36 reached on 2026-01-29.\n\n## Bear Case\n\n- **Both headline numbers missed.** A 2026-11-12 news headline reported third-quarter EPS of $0.18 against a $0.19 estimate and sales of $528.818 million against $537.770 million. Second-quarter revenue of $475.45 million also missed the $513.31 million consensus, MarketBeat reported on 2026-08-05.\n- **Late-stage delinquency is rising.** Panabee reports loans more than 90 days overdue at 5.3% of the expanded portfolio, up from 4.5% a year earlier, with an all-in cost of risk of 5.9% and a coverage ratio of 135% against 146% before.\n- **Higher rates threaten funding costs.** TIKR tied the 2026-10-26 selloff to expectations of a weaker real and higher interest rates after Lula's expanded welfare benefits. Inter fell 36% on the first US session after the 2026-10-25 runoff, TIKR reported.\n- **The result is contested.** Flávio Bolsonaro did not recognise the runoff result, France 24 reported on 2026-10-25.\n- **Pre-election targets are out of date.** UBS raised its target to $10 on 2026-10-20, before the runoff and before the report. Targets set after the report have not surfaced.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n\nThe shares closed at $4.15 on 2026-11-13 and at $3.96 on 2026-11-12. The closes from 2026-11-06 to 2026-11-13 ranged from $3.86 to $4.15. The 52-week closing low is $3.78, set on 2026-11-05.\n\nThe 50-day average of adjusted closes is $5.52 and the 200-day average is $6.52, both as of 2026-11-13. The 3-month change is −21.6%, measured from the $5.29 close of 2026-08-17.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **~2027-02-11 (est.):** Fourth-quarter 2026 results. Shows whether loans over 90 days overdue stay at or below 5.3% and whether cost of risk stays near 5.9%.\n- **~2027-01-05 (est.):** Brazilian presidential inauguration. Policy on welfare spending and debt relief sets the rate path that drives Inter's funding costs and the real.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close above $4.39, over the recent trading range, which would show the shares recovering and leading the S&P 500 despite the credit-quality slippage. A fourth-quarter report with loans over 90 days overdue below 5.3% would also point the same way.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n\nThe shares trade with the Brazilian fintech and bank group and with the real. On 2026-10-26, TIKR reported falls of 36% for Inter, 29% for StoneCo, 25% for PagSeguro and 21% for Nu Holdings. Benzinga reported the S&P 500 up 0.75% that day, so Brazilian political news moved the group while the US index rose.\n\nUS-dollar returns also depend on the real, because the company reports in reais.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-10",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-14T08:35:36+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-14",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-14",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}