{
  "@context": "https://orbyd.app/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "JBHT",
  "name": "J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc.",
  "url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/JBHT/",
  "json_url": "https://orbyd.app/dossiers/JBHT.json",
  "status": "HELD",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "graded_conviction": null,
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a1",
    "n": 1
  },
  "current_thesis": "Freight-recovery leg unresolved between the $266.91 low of 2026-08-03 and the $276.28 pre-print close; the 2026-08-04 reclaim of the June floor came on 825,678 shares against a 1.11M 20-day average. DAT's 35-day forecast published 2026-08-03 puts dry van spot at $2.29 ±$0.07 by early September, a band straddling the $2.25 contract rate. The 2026-08-11 Deutsche Bank appearance is the last management input before the 2026-09-20 quiet period.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A weekly close below $266 dates the 2026-08-04 reclaim of the June floor as a failed retest and puts the entire post-2026-07-15 advance behind the tape; secondary conditions are the 2026-08-11 Deutsche Bank appearance passing without an improved intra-quarter pricing read, or DAT dry van spot linehaul printing under the $2.25 contract rate.",
  "catalyst_date": "2026-08-11",
  "outcome": "OPEN",
  "outcome_date": null,
  "invalidation_fired": null,
  "themes": [
    "freight-logistics",
    "managed-care-health-services"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "notes": [
    "Investor-relations calendar shows a quiet period opening 2026-09-20 ahead of an estimated 2026-10-15 Q3 release — no management commentary in that window.",
    "Intermodal is the largest segment (JBI revenue $1.75B of $3.4953B in Q2 2026) and depends on Class I rail service and per-load rail pricing, both outside company control.",
    "Integrated Capacity Solutions ($388M of Q2 2026 revenue) is a freight brokerage, so post-Montgomery negligent-hiring exposure applies; the 2026-07-24 10-Q carries only normal-course legal language.",
    "The broker liability section at issue in the 2026-02-27 Western District of Arkansas coverage suit carries a $5M per-occurrence limit above a $2M deductible.",
    "Short interest 2.10M shares — 2.24% of 93.91M outstanding, 2.87% of float as of 2026-08-04. No squeeze mechanics in this float.",
    "Pays a $0.45 quarterly dividend; each ex-date mechanically reduces the reference price by roughly that amount."
  ],
  "body_markdown": "\n_Last dated session available for this update: 2026-08-04 close $274.48. No company-specific news has printed since 2026-08-05._\n\n## JBHT — J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc.\n\n## Current Thesis\n\nNothing company-specific has landed since the 2026-08-04 reclaim, so the structure is where the last update left it: an unresolved band between $266.91 (2026-08-03 close, below the $267.24 June floor set 2026-06-17) and $276.28 (the 2026-07-15 pre-print close). the second-lightest tape of the entire twelve-session give-back from $298.41. A quarter that delivered revenue $3.4953B (+19% YoY), operating income $259.5M (+32%), diluted EPS $1.91 versus $1.31 and a record 578,072 intermodal loads has still not been re-paid for by price.\n\nThe pricing input has a forward number attached to it now. DAT's report published 2026-08-03 put dry van spot linehaul at $2.32/mile for the week ending 2026-07-31 — down $0.06 (2.4%) week over week, up 42.1% year over year, and $0.07 above the $2.25 contract linehaul. The same report's 35-day forecast projects roughly $2.29/mile in early September with an uncertainty band of ±$0.07. The lower half of that band, $2.22, sits under contract. That is DAT's published projection, not a house view; what it means for this name is that the spot premium which underwrote the Q2 pricing story is inside its own forecast error by the time the quiet period opens.\n\n**Life-cycle: SATURATED.** Dated by the 2026-07-16 sell-side revision cluster — twelve-plus target raises in a single session, $261 (Goldman Sachs) to $370 (Stephens), landing on the all-time intraday high of $299.76 — by the twelve-session give-back into 2026-08-03, and by the attention arriving after the move: CNBC's Halftime Report named the stock in Final Trades on 2026-08-04 and again in coverage dated 2026-08-05, and Benzinga published a 20-year backward-return piece on 2026-08-05 (14.14% average annual return, 4.7 percentage points annualized above the market). Retrospective return arithmetic and televised name-drops are the coverage shape that follows a 96.68% twelve-month move, not the shape that precedes one.\n\n## Bull Case\n\n- Intermodal set a quarterly record — 578,072 loads in Q2 2026, +10% YoY, Eastern network +16%; JBI revenue $1.75B (+22%) and segment operating income $150.9M (+58%) (release 2026-07-15).\n- Brokerage turned profitable for the first time in fourteen quarters: ICS operating income $1.7M against a $3.6M loss a year earlier, on $388M of Q2 2026 revenue (release 2026-07-15).\n- Spot linehaul at $2.32/mile for the week ending 2026-07-31 sits 30.0% ($0.53) above DAT's nine-year seasonal average of $1.78 — the pricing level, as distinct from the weekly direction, is still near the top of its historical range.\n- Capacity keeps exiting: DAT truck posts −12.5% week over week and −27.8% year over year, load-to-truck ratio 10.93 versus 6.64 a year earlier (report published 2026-08-03).\n- Cass expenditures rose 11.2% YoY in the June report, the fastest since late 2022 and an eighth consecutive seasonally adjusted monthly gain — rate pass-through is showing up in dollars spent even as volume falls.\n- Sell-side sits above the tape after 2026-07-16: JPMorgan $313 (Overweight), Wells Fargo $335 (Overweight), Susquehanna $345 (Positive), Evercore ISI $328 (Outperform), Raymond James $315 (Outperform), Citigroup $309 (Neutral), TD Cowen $297, Truist $295, UBS $291.\n- $791M remains of the $1B repurchase authorization dated 2025-10-22 (Form 10-Q filed 2026-07-24).\n\n## Bear Case\n\n- Volume is contracting while price rises: ATA's seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index read 113.1 in June 2026, −0.1% YoY, a second consecutive annual contraction, after a combined 4.1% April–May decline.\n- The spot premium over contract was $0.07 at the week ending 2026-07-31, and DAT's own ±$0.07 forecast band around $2.29 for early September spans levels below the $2.25 contract rate.\n- Buyback support has thinned: six-month treasury purchases $177.8M versus $552.9M in H1 2025; Q2 2026 repurchases 391,758 shares at an average $249.56 (Form 10-Q, 2026-07-24).\n- Claims accruals stepped up to $322.2M current and $487.5M long-term at 2026-06-30, from $310.3M and $444.5M at 2025-12-31.\n- Broker-liability exposure is live and now carries a number: *Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II* decided 9-0 on 2026-05-14 removed the preemption shield, and a Dallas County jury verdict reported 2026-07-24 in *Lipe v. Lupus Superior, LLC* allocated 23% of $604M to C.H. Robinson. J.B. Hunt's own declaratory action filed 2026-02-27 in the Western District of Arkansas concerns whether a broker liability section with a $5M per-occurrence limit above a $2M deductible responds at all.\n- Insiders sold $4,162,861 and bought $0 over the trailing three months as of 2026-08-04.\n- Morgan Stanley's 2026-07-06 Underweight at $200 anchors the low end of a $200–$370 target range; a forward PE of 30.99 on a $7.05 forward EPS base (aggregator data as of 2026-08-04) means estimate cuts would hit both terms.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n\n- The dated ladder: $276.28 pre-print close (2026-07-15) → +8.01% gap to $298.41 on 2,452,012 shares with an all-time intraday $299.76 (2026-07-16) → twelve sessions down to $266.91 (2026-08-03), through the $267.24 June floor of 2026-06-17 → $274.48 (2026-08-04, +2.84%) on 825,678 shares.\n- The reclaim happened on 75% of the 20-day average volume. Participation confirming a low is a volume question, and that session did not answer it.\n- $276.28 is the level that would re-pay for the Q2 print; $266.91 is the level whose loss retroactively dates 2026-08-04 as a failed retest of the June floor.\n- Ex/record date for the $0.45 quarterly dividend passed 2026-08-07 (declared 2026-07-22, payable 2026-08-21), mechanically removing roughly $0.45 from the reference price inside the current band.\n- Crowding observables, stated as observables: 12+ target raises concentrated in the 2026-07-16 session that marked the all-time high; two consecutive days of CNBC Final Trades coverage (2026-08-04, 2026-08-05); a retrospective long-horizon return article the same week; insider sales of $4.16M against zero purchases; repurchase dollars down roughly two-thirds year over year in H1.\n- Short interest is 2.10M shares — 2.24% of 93.91M shares outstanding, 2.87% of float, as of 2026-08-04. There is no squeeze mechanic in this float.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar (next 30 days)\n\n- **~2026-08-10 (est.)** — DAT weekly dry van report covering the week ending 2026-08-07. Whether spot holds a premium over the $2.25 contract rate after the $0.06 weekly decline to $2.32.\n- **2026-08-11** — CFO Brad Delco and Stacey Griffin, SVP of Pricing for Intermodal, at the Deutsche Bank Industrials Summit, Chicago, 2:00 p.m. CDT. Last scheduled management appearance before the 2026-09-20 quiet period; the intermodal pricing lead speaks roughly two months ahead of bid season.\n- **~2026-08-14 (est.)** — Cass Transportation Index Report for July 2026.\n- **2026-08-21** — $0.45 quarterly dividend payable.\n- **~2026-08-24 (est.)** — ATA For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index for July 2026. A third consecutive YoY contraction would widen the volume/price divergence.\n- Beyond the window: quiet period opens 2026-09-20; Q3 2026 release estimated 2026-10-15 per the investor-relations calendar.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nThe single light-volume session on 2026-08-04 is the whole basis for calling the June floor reclaimed, and one session is not a base. What dates it as a failed retest is a **weekly close below $266**, which would put the entire post-2026-07-15 advance behind the tape and leave the 2026-07-16 gap unfilled in the wrong direction. Two non-price conditions would do independent damage: the 2026-08-11 Deutsche Bank appearance passing without an improved intra-quarter read on container utilisation or ex-fuel pricing per load, leaving no company input until October; and DAT dry van spot linehaul printing under the $2.25 contract rate, which removes the spot premium the Q2 pricing improvement was built on.\n\nWhat would argue the other way, with equal specificity: a weekly close above $276.28 on volume above the 20-day average of roughly 1.11M shares, alongside spot holding above contract in the 2026-08-10 and subsequent DAT weeklies, and a July ATA tonnage print that breaks the two-month YoY contraction streak. Absent those, the setup between $266.91 and $276.28 is unresolved and the case for a fresh entry into the 2026-08-11 appearance is weak.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n\n- Trades with the truckload and intermodal complex — KNX, WERN, ODFL, SAIA, XPO — on the same DAT spot series, so weekly rate prints move the group before they move any single name.\n- The broker-liability factor is shared with CHRW specifically: the $604M *Lipe* verdict reported 2026-07-24 allocated 23% to C.H. Robinson, and ICS ($388M of Q2 2026 revenue) is the same business model.\n- Intermodal is the largest segment at $1.75B of $3.4953B in Q2 2026 and depends on Class I rail service levels and per-load rail pricing, tying the read to UNP and NSC operating metrics that sit outside company control.\n- Between quarters this name is priced off freight macro releases — Cass, ATA tonnage, weekly DAT — more than off company news. From 2026-09-20 the quiet period removes management entirely, so that dependence increases for four weeks into the estimated 2026-10-15 print.",
  "first_seen": "2026-07-06",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-08-09T09:01:44+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-08-09",
  "last_update_source": "watchlist_research",
  "license": "Content © orbyd. Cite the canonical URL."
}