{ "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json", "ticker": "JPM", "name": "JPMorgan Chase & Co.", "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/JPM/", "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/JPM.json", "status": "WATCHLIST", "current_conviction": "LOW", "archetype": { "code": "a1", "n": 1 }, "current_thesis": "JPMorgan Chase's shares look more likely to trail the S&P 500 over three months after a third-quarter miss, a roughly 90% buyback cut and a reported Senate Epstein review; the 9 December 2026 CFO update and 14 January 2027 report decide it.", "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close above $352.11, the 2026-11-04 post-election close, which would show the shares recovering the probe-driven drop and leading again; or a 2027-01-14 fourth-quarter report raising the roughly $107 billion 2027 NII outlook alongside investment banking fee growth above 14%.", "catalyst_date": "2026-12-09", "portfolio": null, "pick": null, "themes": [ "banks-insurers-capital-markets" ], "tags": [], "sources": [], "caveats": [], "source_links": [ { "title": "JPMorgan Stock Loses Over 100% of Its Post-Election Rally. But Why?", "url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/jpmorgan-stock-loses-over-100-193415574.html", "date": "2026-11-05" }, { "title": "JPMorganChase to Present at the Goldman Sachs Financial Services Conference", "url": "https://www.jpmorganchase.com/ir/news/2026/jpmc-to-present-at-the-goldman-sachs-us-financial-services-conference", "date": "2026-11-10" }, { "title": "JPMorgan Stock Faces Fresh Pressure as Democrats Plan Probing Epstein Banking Ties", "url": "https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/senate-democrats-jpmorgan-epstein-inquiry-1830484", "date": null }, { "title": "Major banks enabled Epstein's crimes, Democratic senator's report asserts", "url": "https://www.axios.com/2026/08/06/epstein-deutsche-bank-jpmorgan-bofa-wyden", "date": "2026-08-06" }, { "title": "JPMorgan expects higher than expected 2026 expenses", "url": "https://www.kitco.com/news/off-the-wire/2025-12-09/jpmorgan-expects-higher-expected-2026-expenses", "date": "2025-12-09" } ], "evidence": [ { "claim": "JPMorgan shares closed up 4.18% at $352.11 on 2026-11-04 after Democrats won both chambers of Congress, then fell 4.08% to $337.75 on 2026-11-05 on reports of a Senate Epstein review.", "source": "Yahoo Finance (BeInCrypto), 2026-11-05", "as_of": "2026-11-05" }, { "claim": "Senate Finance Committee staff plan a review of how senior JPMorgan executives handled the Epstein relationship; Sen. Ron Wyden is expected to chair the committee and no probe had been formally announced.", "source": "Yahoo Finance (BeInCrypto), citing CNBC, 2026-11-05", "as_of": "2026-11-05" }, { "claim": "A Senate Finance Committee report said JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank and Bank of America waited until 2019 to flag Epstein transactions that moved more than $1.4 billion through his accounts.", "source": "Axios, 2026-08-06", "as_of": "2026-08-06" }, { "claim": "Third-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings per share was $5.75 against a $5.90 consensus; adjusted revenue was $50.9 billion against $51.26 billion expected.", "source": "Benzinga; JPMorgan third-quarter 2026 earnings release", "as_of": "2026-10-13" }, { "claim": "Investment banking fees rose 14% to $3.0 billion and markets revenue rose 15% to $10.3 billion; fixed income fell 4% to $5.4 billion.", "source": "JPMorgan third-quarter 2026 earnings release", "as_of": "2026-10-13" }, { "claim": "JPMorgan repurchased 3.1 million shares in the third quarter, against 28 million in the same quarter a year earlier.", "source": "GuruFocus, 2026-10-13", "as_of": "2026-10-13" }, { "claim": "Management guided fourth-quarter net interest income excluding Markets at about $25.5 billion and a preliminary 2027 figure of about $107 billion.", "source": "JPMorgan third-quarter 2026 earnings call", "as_of": "2026-10-13" }, { "claim": "TipRanks tracked 10 Buy and 9 Hold ratings on JPMorgan with no Sell and an average 12-month target of $373.81.", "source": "Yahoo Finance (BeInCrypto), 2026-11-05", "as_of": "2026-11-05" } ], "view_changes": [], "frame": null, "filed_numbers": { "as_of": "2026-11-13", "sector": "Financial Services", "financials": { "status": "ok", "reason": null, "close_date": "2026-11-13", "latest_quarter": "2026-09-30", "figures": { "revenue": { "status": "ok", "label": "revenues net of interest expense", "quarters": [ { "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-03", "restated": null, "value_musd": 50172, "yoy_pct": 8.1 }, { "end": "2026-06-30", "filed": "2026-08-06", "restated": null, "value_musd": 57347, "yoy_pct": 27.7 }, { "end": "2026-03-31", "filed": "2026-05-01", "restated": null, "value_musd": 49836, "yoy_pct": 10 }, { "end": "2025-12-31", "filed": "2026-02-13", "restated": null, "value_musd": 45798, "yoy_pct": 7.1 }, { "end": "2025-09-30", "filed": "2025-11-04", "restated": null, "value_musd": 46427, "yoy_pct": 8.8 }, { "end": "2025-06-30", "filed": "2025-08-05", "restated": null, "value_musd": 44912, "yoy_pct": -10.5 } ] }, "gross_margin": { "status": "not reported" }, "operating_margin": { "status": "not reported" }, "pretax_income": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-03", "value_musd": 20134 }, "net_income": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-03", "four_quarters_end": "2026-09-30", "value_musd": 15305, "four_quarters_musd": 65979 }, "operating_cash_flow": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-03", "first_end": "2025-12-31", "value_musd": -84159 }, "capital_spending": { "status": "not reported" }, "free_cash_flow": { "status": "not meaningful", "reason": "a bank's or insurer's operating cash flow moves with its deposits, loans and policy reserves, so it is not cash free for its owners" }, "diluted_share_change": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-03", "base_end": "2025-09-30", "pct": -3.1 }, "cash": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-03", "value_musd": 326271 }, "debt": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-03", "value_musd": 531499, "composition": "long-term debt and finance leases plus short-term borrowings" }, "net_cash": { "status": "not meaningful", "reason": "a bank's or insurer's cash and investments back its deposits and policies" }, "deferred_revenue": { "status": "not reported" }, "backlog": { "status": "not reported" }, "receivables": { "status": "not reported" }, "inventory": { "status": "not reported" }, "equity": { "status": "ok", "end": "2026-09-30", "filed": "2026-11-03", "value_musd": 372368 }, "market_value": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-09-30", "basis_filed": "2026-11-03", "value_musd": 919345.5 }, "enterprise_value": { "status": "not meaningful", "reason": "a bank's or insurer's cash and investments back its deposits and policies" }, "ev_sales": { "status": "not meaningful", "reason": "a bank's or insurer's cash and investments back its deposits and policies" }, "ev_ebit": { "status": "not meaningful", "reason": "a bank's or insurer's cash and investments back its deposits and policies" }, "pe": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-09-30", "basis_filed": "2026-11-03", "multiple": 13.9 }, "pb": { "status": "ok", "close_date": "2026-11-13", "basis_end": "2026-09-30", "basis_filed": "2026-11-03", "multiple": 2.5 }, "fcf_yield": { "status": "not meaningful", "reason": "a bank's or insurer's operating cash flow moves with its deposits, loans and policy reserves, so it is not cash free for its owners" } }, "financial_balance_sheet": { "kind": "bank" } }, "short_interest": { "status": "ok", "settlement": "2026-10-15", "published": "2026-10-26", "short_pct_of_outstanding": 0.96, "days_to_cover": 3.3, "change_pct": 6.1 }, "insiders": { "status": "ok", "as_of": "2026-11-15", "windows": [ { "days": 90, "status": "ok", "from": "2026-08-18", "bought_usd": 0, "sold_usd": 882025, "bought_unpriced": 0, "sold_unpriced": 0 }, { "days": 365, "status": "ok", "from": "2025-11-16", "bought_usd": 0, "sold_usd": 126049069.92, "bought_unpriced": 0, "sold_unpriced": 0 } ] } }, "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\nJPMorgan Chase's shares look more likely to trail the S&P 500 than lead it over the next three months. The third quarter missed estimates, buybacks fell by about 90%, and a reported Senate review of the bank's ties to Jeffrey Epstein adds headline risk. Chief financial officer Jeremy Barnum's talk on 2026-12-09 is the first update before the 2027-01-14 fourth-quarter report. That report shows whether fee growth and buybacks recover.\n\nThe price already reflects a discount for the miss and the probe report. It does not reflect a formal investigation. The shares closed up 4.18% at $352.11 on 2026-11-04 after Democrats won both chambers of Congress. They fell 4.08% to $337.75 on 2026-11-05 on reports of the Senate review (Yahoo Finance/BeInCrypto, 2026-11-05). The shares closed at $342.82 on 2026-11-12, down 5.0% over three months on adjusted daily closes and 6.5% below the quoted 52-week high of $366.50 set on 2026-08-13.\n\nThe rating is Low because the business has no visible near-term driver. New deal mandates keep arriving without moving the shares, and capital returns are running at a fraction of last year's pace.\n\n## Bull Case\n- **Profit still earns a 20% return.** Net income was $15.3 billion and reported earnings per share (EPS) was $5.57, up 10% from $5.07 a year earlier (third-quarter 2026 release, 2026-10-13). Return on tangible common equity was 20%.\n- **The miss came mostly from one line.** A $658 million net loss on investment securities cut EPS by about $0.18 (Yahoo Finance, 2026-10-13). Adjusted EPS was $5.75 against a $5.90 consensus (Benzinga, 2026-10-13).\n- **Mandates keep arriving.** J.P. Morgan led a $500 million financing for VulcanForms (company news, 2026-11-12). Alphabet named HSBC and J.P. Morgan joint global coordinators for a possible first Hong Kong dollar and Singapore dollar bond offering (Benzinga, 2026-11-11).\n- **The Anthropic listing keeps advancing.** Anthropic scheduled a live-streamed discussion of its initial public offering (IPO) with its chief executive Dario Amodei and JPMorgan chief executive Jamie Dimon (company news, 2026-11-10). Barnum called the investment banking pipeline \"delayed rather than canceled\" on the 2026-10-13 call.\n- **Interest income keeps growing into 2027.** Management guided fourth-quarter net interest income (NII) excluding Markets at about $25.5 billion and a preliminary 2027 figure of about $107 billion (earnings call, 2026-10-13).\n- **Analysts sit above the price.** TipRanks tracked 10 Buy and 9 Hold ratings with no Sell and an average 12-month target of $373.81 (Yahoo Finance, 2026-11-05).\n\n## Bear Case\n- **A congressional probe is likely in January.** Senate Finance Committee staff plan a review of how senior executives, including Mary Erdoes, handled the Epstein relationship, and Senator Ron Wyden is expected to chair the committee (Yahoo Finance and IBTimes, citing CNBC, 2026-11-05). A committee report described by Axios on 2026-08-06 said JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank and Bank of America waited until 2019 to flag Epstein transactions that moved more than $1.4 billion. JPMorgan settled Epstein lawsuits for $365 million in 2023 without admitting wrongdoing.\n- **Buybacks nearly halted.** JPMorgan repurchased 3.1 million shares in the third quarter, against 28 million a year earlier (GuruFocus, 2026-10-13). Dimon said the bank is weighing uses of capital that could earn more than buybacks.\n- **Fee growth landed at the low end.** Investment banking fees grew 14% to $3.0 billion and markets revenue 15% to $10.3 billion, against \"mid-to-high teens\" guidance given on 2026-09-15. Fixed-income markets revenue fell 4% to $5.4 billion (third-quarter 2026 release, 2026-10-13).\n- **December updates have hit the shares before.** At the same Goldman Sachs conference on 2025-12-09, consumer banking head Marianne Lake guided 2026 expenses to about $105 billion, and the shares fell 4.3% that day (Kitco, 2025-12-09).\n- **Capital, credit and regulators all weigh.** The common equity tier 1 (CET1) ratio was 13.9% and the third-quarter reserve build was $539 million (third-quarter 2026 release, 2026-10-13). Sky News reported an added UK charge of about £100 million to £150 million on 2026-10-28. The 2026-10-14 debanking report from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the 2026-10-02 Securities and Exchange Commission censure remain open.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\nThe shares closed at $334.49 on 2026-11-06, the low after the probe report, and recovered to $342.08 on 2026-11-09. They closed at $342.82 on 2026-11-12. That close sits above the 50-day moving average of $339.99 and the 200-day moving average of $322.22, both from adjusted daily closes as of 2026-11-12.\n\nThe rebound has not regained the 2026-11-04 post-election close. The quoted 52-week high is $366.50, set on 2026-08-13, and the quoted 52-week closing low is $282.84, set on 2026-03-27. A move back toward the August high would need a business reason; the December conference is the first scheduled one.\n\nInsider activity is light. The most recent open-market sale was by Head of Human Resources Robin Leopold: 2,500 shares at $352.81 on 2026-09-10 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan (SEC Form 4). Directors received routine share awards valued at $330.83 on 2026-09-30, and director Stephen Burke gifted 30,000 shares on 2026-10-14 (SEC Form 4 filings).\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **2026-12-09:** CFO Jeremy Barnum presents at the Goldman Sachs Financial Services Conference, 10:00 a.m. Eastern. The mid-quarter update shows whether fourth-quarter investment banking and markets revenue beat the third quarter's 14% and 15% growth, and how 2027 expenses are set.\n- **2026-12-09:** Federal Reserve interest-rate decision with new projections. The rate path feeds into the roughly $107 billion 2027 net interest income outlook and into the value of the bank's securities portfolio.\n- **~2027-01-03 (est.):** New Congress convenes with Democratic control of the Senate. Shows whether the reported Senate Finance Committee review of JPMorgan's Epstein ties becomes a formal probe with subpoena power.\n- **2027-01-14:** Fourth-quarter 2026 earnings report and call. Shows whether investment banking fees grow faster than 14%, whether buybacks recover from 3.1 million shares and whether the $25.5 billion fourth-quarter net interest income guide holds.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close above $352.11, the 2026-11-04 post-election close, which would show the shares recovering the probe-driven drop and leading again; or a 2027-01-14 fourth-quarter report raising the roughly $107 billion 2027 NII outlook alongside investment banking fee growth above 14%.\n\n## Correlation Notes\nJPMorgan trades with the large US banks. On 2026-11-05, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo also fell, but JPMorgan's 4.08% drop led the group because the probe report was specific to the bank. On 2026-11-10 all 11 S&P sectors fell, with Financials at the top of the table (Benzinga). The shares respond to the Federal Reserve's rate path through NII and bond values, and to the IPO calendar, including Anthropic, through investment banking fees. Washington news matters more than usual: both the 2026-11-04 rally and the 2026-11-05 reversal came from politics.", "first_seen": "2026-11-10", "last_analyzed": "2026-11-12T23:49:50+00:00", "last_synthesized": "2026-11-12", "date_modified": "2026-11-12", "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL." }