{
  "@context": "https://frontierpicks.com/schemas/dossier.v1.json",
  "ticker": "KMPR",
  "name": "Kemper Corporation",
  "url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KMPR/",
  "json_url": "https://frontierpicks.com/dossiers/KMPR.json",
  "status": "WATCHLIST",
  "current_conviction": "LOW",
  "archetype": {
    "code": "a4",
    "n": 4
  },
  "current_thesis": "Kemper Corporation's third-quarter 2026 profit came with a personal auto book down about 10% in the quarter and an underlying combined ratio still above 100%. After a 30.7% three-month rise, the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 until the fourth-quarter report shows policy counts stabilizing.",
  "invalidation_trigger": "A daily close above $39.93, the highest close of the past year (2025-12-12), would show the shares leading the S&P 500. So would a fourth-quarter 2026 report with personal auto policies in force growing quarter on quarter.",
  "catalyst_date": null,
  "portfolio": null,
  "pick": null,
  "themes": [
    "banks-insurers-capital-markets"
  ],
  "tags": [],
  "sources": [],
  "caveats": [],
  "source_links": [
    {
      "title": "KEMPER Corp - Form 8-K - FY2026",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000860748/000086074826000101/kmpr20269302026ex991release.htm",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "Kemper Q3 Earnings Call Highlights",
      "url": "https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/transcript-kemper-q3-earnings-call-highlights-2026-11-10/",
      "date": "2026-11-10"
    },
    {
      "title": "Kemper's (NYSE:KMPR) Q3 2026 earnings results: revenue in line with expectations",
      "url": "https://markets.financialcontent.com/stocks/article/stockstory-2026-11-9-kempers-nysekmpr-q3-2026-earnings-results-revenue-in-line-with-expectations",
      "date": null
    },
    {
      "title": "KEMPER Corp - Form 8-K - FY2026",
      "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000860748/000086074826000091/kmpr2026q3ex991pre-release.htm",
      "date": "2026-10-28"
    },
    {
      "title": "TIKR",
      "url": "https://www.tikr.com/zh/blog/kemper-soars-10-on-surprise-preliminary-q3-beat-but-ceo-says-we-have-more-work-to-do",
      "date": "2026-10-29"
    }
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "claim": "Q3 2026 net income $52.4M ($0.88 per diluted share) and adjusted net operating income $59.9M ($1.01), versus a $21.0M loss and $20.4M ($0.33) in Q3 2025.",
      "source": "Kemper 8-K Exhibit 99.1, 2026-11-09",
      "as_of": "2026-11-09"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Specialty P&C combined ratio 99.2% versus 104.8% in Q3 2025; underlying combined ratio 101.7% versus 99.6% in Q3 2025.",
      "source": "Kemper 8-K Exhibit 99.1, 2026-11-09",
      "as_of": "2026-11-09"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Personal auto earned premium $599.9M versus $785.1M in Q3 2025; commercial auto earned premium $258.0M versus $232.2M.",
      "source": "Kemper 8-K Exhibit 99.1, 2026-11-09",
      "as_of": "2026-11-09"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Personal auto policies in force about 835,000, down roughly 10% in the quarter and from 1.1 million a year earlier; personal auto underlying ratio 103.3%.",
      "source": "Kemper Q3 2026 earnings call, 2026-11-10 (MarketBeat summary)",
      "as_of": "2026-11-10"
    },
    {
      "claim": "California personal auto combined ratio 98.2% and underlying ratio 102.1% in Q3 2026, versus 110.6% and 109.2% in Q1 2026.",
      "source": "Kemper 8-K Exhibit 99.1, 2026-11-09",
      "as_of": "2026-11-09"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Favorable prior-year reserve development of $23.2M (2.7 points) in Q3 2026, versus $51.4M adverse in Q3 2025.",
      "source": "Kemper 8-K Exhibit 99.1, 2026-11-09",
      "as_of": "2026-11-09"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Book value per share $36.20, down 21% from $45.71 at year-end 2025; adjusted book value per share $28.13 versus $28.06.",
      "source": "Kemper 8-K Exhibit 99.1, 2026-11-09",
      "as_of": "2026-09-30"
    },
    {
      "claim": "Adjusted EPS of $1.01 beat the $0.78 S&P consensus by 30.2%; book value per share missed the $40.88 estimate by 11.4%.",
      "source": "StockStory, 2026-11-09",
      "as_of": "2026-11-09"
    }
  ],
  "view_changes": [],
  "frame": null,
  "filed_numbers": {
    "as_of": "2026-11-13",
    "sector": "Financial Services",
    "financials": {
      "status": "ok",
      "reason": null,
      "close_date": "2026-11-13",
      "latest_quarter": "2026-09-30",
      "figures": {
        "revenue": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-09",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 1090.6,
              "yoy_pct": -12
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-05",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 1092.7,
              "yoy_pct": -10.8
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-05-06",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 1107.2,
              "yoy_pct": -7.2
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-12-31",
              "filed": "2026-02-11",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 1131.4,
              "yoy_pct": -4.7
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-11-05",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 1239.7,
              "yoy_pct": 5.2
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-08-05",
              "restated": null,
              "value_musd": 1225.6,
              "yoy_pct": 8.5
            }
          ]
        },
        "gross_margin": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "operating_margin": {
          "status": "ok",
          "quarters": [
            {
              "end": "2026-09-30",
              "filed": "2026-11-09",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 5.9
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-06-30",
              "filed": "2026-08-05",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -42.7
            },
            {
              "end": "2026-03-31",
              "filed": "2026-05-06",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -0.7
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-09-30",
              "filed": "2025-11-05",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": -2.7
            },
            {
              "end": "2025-06-30",
              "filed": "2025-08-05",
              "restated": null,
              "pct": 7.1
            }
          ]
        },
        "pretax_income": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "net_income": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "four_quarters_end": "2026-09-30",
          "value_musd": 52.4,
          "four_quarters_musd": -422.1
        },
        "operating_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 357.4
        },
        "capital_spending": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 38.5
        },
        "free_cash_flow": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "first_end": "2025-12-31",
          "value_musd": 318.9
        },
        "diluted_share_change": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "base_end": "2025-09-30",
          "pct": -3.1
        },
        "cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "value_musd": 80.5
        },
        "debt": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "value_musd": 945,
          "composition": "long-term debt"
        },
        "net_cash": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "value_musd": -864.5
        },
        "deferred_revenue": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "backlog": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "receivables": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "value_musd": 969.7
        },
        "inventory": {
          "status": "not reported"
        },
        "equity": {
          "status": "ok",
          "end": "2026-09-30",
          "filed": "2026-11-09",
          "value_musd": 2133.3
        },
        "market_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-11-05",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-09",
          "value_musd": 2012.3
        },
        "enterprise_value": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-11-05",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-09",
          "value_musd": 2876.8
        },
        "ev_sales": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-11-05",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-09",
          "multiple": 0.7
        },
        "ev_ebit": {
          "status": "not available"
        },
        "pe": {
          "status": "not meaningful"
        },
        "pb": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-11-05",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-09",
          "multiple": 0.9
        },
        "fcf_yield": {
          "status": "ok",
          "close_date": "2026-11-13",
          "basis_end": "2026-11-05",
          "basis_filed": "2026-11-09",
          "pct": 15.8
        }
      }
    },
    "short_interest": {
      "status": "ok",
      "settlement": "2026-10-15",
      "published": "2026-10-26",
      "short_pct_of_outstanding": 9.01,
      "days_to_cover": 6.4,
      "change_pct": 4.6
    },
    "insiders": {
      "status": "ok",
      "as_of": "2026-11-15",
      "windows": [
        {
          "days": 90,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2026-08-18",
          "bought_usd": 0,
          "sold_usd": 0,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        },
        {
          "days": 365,
          "status": "ok",
          "from": "2025-11-16",
          "bought_usd": 367880,
          "sold_usd": 17468.64,
          "bought_unpriced": 0,
          "sold_unpriced": 0
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "body_markdown": "## Current Thesis\n\nKemper's full third-quarter report on 2026-11-09 confirmed a return to profit, but it also showed the personal auto book shrinking fast and the underlying combined ratio still above 100%. The shares rose 30.7% over three months to a $34.76 close on 2026-11-11, so they already price a recovery that underwriting has not finished. The rating is Low, meaning the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it. The fourth-quarter report, expected in early 2027, decides whether policy counts stop falling.\n\nKemper's 8-K of 2026-11-09 reported net income of $52.4 million, or $0.88 per diluted share, and adjusted net operating income of $59.9 million, or $1.01 per share. A year earlier those figures were a $21.0 million loss and $20.4 million. StockStory put the adjusted figure 30.2% above the $0.78 S&P consensus on 2026-11-09.\n\nThe combined ratio is claims plus expenses as a share of premiums, and a figure below 100% means an underwriting profit. The Specialty property and casualty ratio was 99.2%, against 104.8% a year earlier. The underlying ratio, which strips out catastrophes and reserve changes, was 101.7%, worse than 99.6% a year earlier and only slightly better than 102.3% in the second quarter.\n\nThe full report added the figure the 2026-10-28 pre-release left out. Personal auto policies in force fell about 10% in the quarter to roughly 835,000, from 1.1 million a year earlier, MarketBeat reported from the 2026-11-10 call. Management said counts would level off a couple of quarters after profitability improves.\n\n## Bull Case\n\n- **Operating earnings tripled from a year ago.** Adjusted net operating income was $1.01 per share against $0.33 in the third quarter of 2025, per the 2026-11-09 8-K. StockStory put the beat over consensus at 30.2% the same day.\n- **California margins improved sharply.** The California personal auto combined ratio was 98.2% and its underlying ratio 102.1%, against 110.6% and 109.2% in the first quarter, per the 8-K. Management expects the underlying California ratio to fall below 100% during 2027, MarketBeat reported from the 2026-11-10 call.\n- **Rate increases are still earning in.** California personal auto rate increases total about 13% since the start of 2025, including about 50% on bodily injury coverage, management said on the 2026-11-10 call. Six-month policies carry that rate into earned premium through 2027.\n- **One item inflated the underlying ratio.** Excluding a $10 million Florida excess-profit liability increase, the Specialty underlying ratio would have been 100.5%, management said on the 2026-11-10 call.\n- **The chief executive bought shares in August.** Stephen McAnena bought 3,000 shares at $26.50 on 2026-08-13, per his SEC Form 4.\n\n## Bear Case\n\n- **Personal auto premium is shrinking fast.** Personal auto earned premium fell to $599.9 million in the third quarter from $785.1 million a year earlier, per the 8-K. Total revenue was $1,090.6 million, down $149.1 million year over year.\n- **Underwriting still loses money underneath.** The personal auto underlying ratio was 103.3%, MarketBeat reported from the call, and McAnena said \"we're not declaring victory.\"\n- **Reserve releases flatter the headline ratio.** Favorable prior-year development of $23.2 million added 2.7 points to the third-quarter result, per the 8-K. A year earlier the same line was a $51.4 million charge.\n- **Commercial auto costs are rising.** The commercial auto underlying ratio rose 4.1 points to 97.8% on higher bodily injury costs, MarketBeat reported from the 2026-11-10 call. Kemper filed a second 6.9% rate increase in September.\n- **Book value fell and missed estimates.** Book value per share was $36.20 on 2026-09-30, down 21% from $45.71 at year-end 2025, per the 8-K. StockStory put the figure 11.4% below the $40.88 estimate.\n- **Peers earn far wider margins.** TIKR cited an 88.7% third-quarter combined ratio at Progressive and second-quarter auto ratios of 83.3% at Allstate and 89.9% at Mercury General on 2026-10-29.\n\n## Setup & Price Structure\n\nThe shares closed at $34.76 on 2026-11-11, above the 50-day moving average of $28.73 and the 200-day moving average of $29.14 on adjusted daily closes. The three-month gain is 30.7%. The close is 16.7% below the 52-week intraday high of $41.74 on 2025-12-17 and well above the 52-week closing low of $22.90 on 2026-06-03.\n\nThe full report moved the shares less than the pre-release did. The close was $33.39 on 2026-11-06 and $33.15 on 2026-11-09, the day of the report, then $34.39 on 2026-11-10, the day of the call. The highest close since the pre-release was $35.76 on 2026-11-04.\n\nThe 2026-11-11 close of $34.76 sits between adjusted book value of $28.13 per share and reported book value of $36.20, per the 8-K. That price assumes earnings keep recovering, while the premium base that produces them is still getting smaller. Analyst targets published before the 2026-11-09 report do not reflect it, and no post-report target change was found.\n\n## Catalyst Calendar\n\n- **2026-12-02:** Quarterly dividend of $0.32 per share payable. Shows the board held the payout after the $460.0M second-quarter goodwill write-down and the 21% fall in book value per share during 2026.\n- **~2027-02-09 (est.):** Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results. Shows whether personal auto policies in force stop falling from about 835,000, and whether the underlying combined ratio moves toward 100% without reserve releases.\n\n## What Would Change Our Mind\n\nA daily close above $39.93, the highest close of the past year (2025-12-12), would show the shares leading the S&P 500. So would a fourth-quarter 2026 report with personal auto policies in force growing quarter on quarter.\n\n## Correlation Notes\n\nThe shares have moved on company news. The late-October jump followed Kemper's own pre-release, and Progressive, Allstate and Mercury General report much lower auto ratios, per TIKR on 2026-10-29. So Kemper's results depend more on its own repair than on the auto insurance cycle.\n\nCompetition still matters for volume. Management said rivals' pricing could change when its policy counts level off, MarketBeat reported from the 2026-11-10 call. If peers cut auto rates while Kemper keeps raising them, the book would keep shrinking. Net investment income of about $107 million in the third quarter, per the 2026-10-28 pre-release, ties part of earnings to interest rates.",
  "first_seen": "2026-11-10",
  "last_analyzed": "2026-11-12T03:55:27+00:00",
  "last_synthesized": "2026-11-12",
  "date_modified": "2026-11-12",
  "license": "Content © FrontierPicks. Cite the canonical URL."
}